bramling
Veteran Member
In some cases it’s very obvious - they’re loving this whole thing. Time off work or at the very least working from home. I’m afraid some people have really taken the pee with this.
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When will restrictions finally end?
- Thread starter Huntergreed
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In some cases it’s very obvious - they’re loving this whole thing. Time off work or at the very least working from home. I’m afraid some people have really taken the pee with this.
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R
RailUK Forums
True I mean Furlough it surely won’t continue beyond April? I imagine that’s the target for cinemas pubs bowling to reopen surely?
Mintona
Established Member
Believe me when I say I don’t want restrictions to carry on any longer than is absolutely necessary. I just don’t trust the government to get them dropped at a reasonable rate. Be pessimistic and you be may be pleasantly surprised.
I'm almost certain we'll see another extension.
The UK has vaccinated roughly the same number of people as Israel at the moment (UK - 947,206 Israel - 950,000)
What is key to easing restrictions is the percentage of the most vulnerable who have been vaccinated, and what proportion of COVID-19 deaths these most vulnerable people account for.
But their population is just 13% of the UK's...
I understand that, and according to the Bloomberg chart, the US has vaccinated the most number of people.
But the US population is many times bigger than that of the UK.
We shouldn't try and compare ourselves with other countries.
We need to develop a plan for easing restrictions based on vaccination rates, number of cases, current and predicted future load on the NHS.
It may be that 60,000 new cases a day will be nothing to worry about, if only a small percentage of those end up in hospital.
This is what we do with seasonal flu.
anthony263
Established Member
Disability hate tcrime is slowly going up as people are blaming the vulnerable for these restrictions. Ive got MS yet ive kept on driving buses in lockdown snd I've been subject to verbal abuse
Peregrine 4903
Established Member
Its utterly disgraceful. I can't believe people are actually blaming vulnerable people for these restrictions. I feel for you suffering abuse. Hope your doing alright regardless.
Until when?
Nicholas Lewis
Established Member
The problem is 2400/day are being admitted but less than 1000/day are being discharged so hospitals continue to fill up and are running up against constraints of beds, staff and equipment now in London & SE. The govt are nowhere to be seen when its clear more serious action is needed to arrest the rapid rise in hospitalisations in the South. Remember an admission today is from someone infected two weeks ago whence case rates were mid 30k not the mid50k we are seeing in now so where do you see admissions in a few weeks? This is getting very nasty and the rest of the country needs to be protected against the spread of this strain further so there is some slack somewhere to assist.
sjpowermac
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That is truly awful and terrible to hear
I don't fall into the category of "wanting" restrictions to remain. However I can understand why they may need to remain for longer than some people would like.
Basically my view is:
1. If somebody is seriously ill (whether with Covid or anything else) it should be possible to admit them to hospital.
2. If they deteriorate to the point where they need intensive support then an ITU/ICU bed should be available.
Currently with c.20,000 Covid in-patients those two things are on a knife edge. If it went up (and the virulence of the new form makes that a real danger) then those two conditions will not be met and deaths will increase.
If the price to pay to avoid that happening is retaining restrictions then I accept that.
(This is not a defence of all the restrictions, some of which have been pointless or even counterproductive.)
Nicholas Lewis
Established Member
Very well stated and in London & SE conditions 1 & 2 are fulfilled but not necessarily the further North and West you go but they have been placed under onerous restrictions as well which many resent. However, by acting now the govt are at least ahead of the curve for once and they might at least retain capacity to treat patients across all medical causes not just Covid ones. The problem with this virus is the lag from when it starts spreading until it shows up with hospitalisations and then deaths giving a false horizon that things aren't as bad as medical and scientific professions are forecasting.
The calculator shows the time until maximum protection after the second dose. Assuming that it has been adjusted for the longer period between doses then some of the difference will be down to that. My own estimate has gone from early March to early/mid JuneThis link is to the vaccination calculator that works out roughly when you will receive it:
Vaccine Queue Calculator for the UK
The vaccine queue calculator for the UK estimates where you are in the queue to get your COVID vaccine based on your age, health, and job.www.omnicalculator.com
Mine was showing June-September 2021 until today. Note ‘was’. It is now showing January-June 2022. The vaccination schedule is so far behind, this is another reason why I expect restrictions to be with us until next April.
johnnychips
Established Member
^ Isn’t this a bit like one of those internet quizzes regarding your IQ level that you find on Facebook every now and again, or has it any validity?
I suspect the decisions made about changing the vaccination strategy whilst scientifically sound are going to create problems further down the line - if the first dose gives 50-60% protection (I believe this is about right for the Oxford vaccine) I can see the potential for a lot of pushback to wait until the priority groups have had their second dose before easing restrictions, which takes us well past Easter.
Again, a complete failure in government communications - the change in vaccine roll out strategy warranted a proper scientific explanation and a big press campaign to counter the inevitable worries that it was the wrong decision. Coordinating with Pfizer would have been a good idea as well as their statement saying there's no evidence for efficacy in the changed vaccination schedule whilst technically correct isn't helpful.
Again, a complete failure in government communications - the change in vaccine roll out strategy warranted a proper scientific explanation and a big press campaign to counter the inevitable worries that it was the wrong decision. Coordinating with Pfizer would have been a good idea as well as their statement saying there's no evidence for efficacy in the changed vaccination schedule whilst technically correct isn't helpful.
I don't know. There are so many of the priority groups that need protection in the near future who won't get it otherwise, it seems a relatively easy explain - for the Oxford vaccine at least.
Pfizer is more difficult as they've stated there's no evidence that it would work. I'd be inclined to continue with the double dose for them anyway.
Bertie the bus
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The change to the strategy isn't scientifically sound and they can't give a proper scientific explanation because there isn't one. What they have decided to do isn't dangerous, in that having a second vaccination more than 3 or 4 weeks later won't harm people, but there is no data to suggest it will work. They are guessing. If there was evidence it would work why did the MHRA not give it as an option when they originally approved the Pfizer vaccine just 3 weeks ago? It is a move based on panic. not science or evidence.
The need to safeguard hospital capacity may lead to the rest of England being put into tier 4 at the next review, as well as partial or full closure of schools until the February half term.
The point I was making about 60,000 cases a day being nothing to worry about is that, as vaccination levels increase, the proportion of newly diagnosed cases requiring hospitalisation will go down, which will contribute to relieving pressure on hospitals.
The government will no doubt have discharges exceeding new admissions as a factor when considering easing of restrictions.
Couldn't agree more.
I don't "want" restrictions to be in place but right now am struggling to see much of an alternative until we get our other mitigation strategy - the vaccine - rolled out at scale and starting to reduce pressure on the health service.
The simple fact is that right now many parts of the country are in pretty dire shape - Hospitals are being overwhelmed and staff working in potentially unsafe ways. When you see reports of the ratios of Nurses to Patients being 1:4 instead of 1:1 and hospitals talking about being in "Disaster Medicine Mode" then things are pretty awful. And of course the sad truth is that unless we are able to reduce the spread then more people will get sick, more people will end up in hospital and those numbers will only increase.
I will admit I am somewhat lucky in that I can work from home and haven't suffered economically as yet but that doesn't mean I am "happy" - I most certainly am not. Life has been pretty damn horrible for the past 9 months as someone living alone in a rural area I have not had any real human contact since March and don't have friends to reach out to - I would love nothing more than for restrictions to be ended tomorrow but I also accept that we are not in that position right now. I hope that day comes sooner rather than later (it will come...Pandemics always end) but for the time being this is how things are.
bengley
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When most supermarkets were closed after 8pm in the first lockdown, as a train driver, getting to the shops was a downright nightmare. If they do that again it will make life very difficult.
chris11256
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The thing that I think would have the biggest impact would be drastically curtailing outdoor exercise. In my local area it's been absolutely heaving with people out for walks and such ever since tier 4 was announced.
Otherwise I'm not sure there is much else to do given that tier 4 is already a stay home order, carry on school closures, further restrictions on who can physically go to work, close takeaways and everything that's not a supermarket. None of seem particularly high impact measures besides school closures.
I don't think this means measures going on for longer. Getting to 2 million vaccinations as well will still start to have a drastic impact on hospital admissions & deaths once more of the vulnerable are covered. Which is ultimately all that matters for the government.
Otherwise I'm not sure there is much else to do given that tier 4 is already a stay home order, carry on school closures, further restrictions on who can physically go to work, close takeaways and everything that's not a supermarket. None of seem particularly high impact measures besides school closures.
I don't think this means measures going on for longer. Getting to 2 million vaccinations as well will still start to have a drastic impact on hospital admissions & deaths once more of the vulnerable are covered. Which is ultimately all that matters for the government.
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I would disagree that curtailing outdoor exercise is likely to have much impact - but of course it's the sort of thing the government will do as it would help to further erode the general wellbeing of the nation, which it is quite clear is their only goal now.
I am also highly sceptical that they will ease restrictions if hospitalisations drop - they'll just shift the goalposts again.
bramling
Veteran Member
It would be absolute madness to reduce hours, and thus pack everyone in during the remaining hours.
Watch out for it being announced then!
Philip
On Moderation
This kind of unnecessary and pessimistic post is completely inaccurate and doesn't help anyone, it just makes people's mood worse. The government can be criticized for their handling of the pandemic, but they are certainly not on a mission to erode people's wellbeing, nor will they prolong restrictions any longer than necessary; ie. once hospital admissions drop and the pressure on the NHS eases.
Absolutely correct. Far better to spread the trade out across the entire day rather than concentrate it into a few hours.
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