22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

duncanp · 1 Mar 2021

Crossover said:
Indeed. Though on the other hand the moves are irreversible but reversible...

Whilst the government hasn't said as much, there is nothing to prevent them from bringing forward the date for each stage of lockdown easing, especially if the government finds it politically expedient to do so.

I know they said no earlier that April 12th, May 17th, June 21st..., but there is definitely some slack built into this timetable which allows for unforeseen delays. For example, the current target for vaccinating the top 9 priority groups is April 15th. But at current rates of vaccination, even allowing for second doses being administered, it is entirely possible that this target could be reached before Easter.

If this were to happen, the government might use this as a justification for bringing forward each reopening by at least a week.

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Richard Scott · 1 Mar 2021

Bertie the bus said:
Of course it can be delayed. What part of at the earliest and subject to conditions being met do people not understand? Nobody who actually read the roadmap would think the government has said this WILL happen by this date, followed by this on that date.

The issue now is majority are fed up with restrictions so unlikely to stick to any rules that are kept in place or put back in place.

Bertie the bus · 1 Mar 2021

I don’t know why you think it is important or relevant if people are getting fed up and longing for the restrictions to end. If people decide to go to the beach at the first sight of the sun, as they did at the weekend, that is up to them but you can’t just decide to go to the pub or restaurant or have a wedding reception or birthday party if the venues are closed. They will open when the government says they can and people wanting it to happen will play no part.

Huntergreed · 1 Mar 2021

Bertie the bus said:
I don’t know why you think it is important or relevant if people are getting fed up and longing for the restrictions to end. If people decide to go to the beach at the first sight of the sun, as they did at the weekend, that is up to them but you can’t just decide to go to the pub or restaurant or have a wedding reception or birthday party if the venues are closed. They will open when the government says they can and people wanting it to happen will play no part.

I disagree, premise of a democratic society is that the government acts in the interests of the majority of the population.

If the government stop acting in the interests of the majority and continue to do this over time, they will face consequences, so it is not in their interest to act against what the majority of people want. They are imposing a lockdown because they believe this is what is wanted by the majority of people (I disagree, but that's what they're trying to do).

bramling · 1 Mar 2021

Bertie the bus said:
I don’t know why you think it is important or relevant if people are getting fed up and longing for the restrictions to end. If people decide to go to the beach at the first sight of the sun, as they did at the weekend, that is up to them but you can’t just decide to go to the pub or restaurant or have a wedding reception or birthday party if the venues are closed. They will open when the government says they can and people wanting it to happen will play no part.

There does come a point where it could end up politically damaging, if government policy no longer reflects the public mood. I’d say that point was reached many months ago if you’re someone who happens to own a business like a hotel or restaurant. For many of the rest I continue to view the transition into spring as a watershed.

Nicholas Lewis · 1 Mar 2021

So c36m English people now live in an area with less than 100cases/100k and only two English areas are now above 200cases/200k. Devon and Cornwall are well inside old Tier 1 criteria with Dorset excluding Bournemouth also Tier 1.

English hospital admissions continue tumble daily but of course Hancock couldn't quite bring himself to be too jubilant on the presser about that but is confirming that the vaccine is working with various slides. He then says both vaccines are better than 80% in >70 age groups according to PHE data. JVT says we will be in a very different world soon as long we are patient.

If the return of schools has no demonstrable impact CRG need to be leaning very heavily on govt to accelerate the relaxation dates.

TPO · 1 Mar 2021

bramling said:
There does come a point where it could end up politically damaging, if government policy no longer reflects the public mood. I’d say that point was reached many months ago if you’re someone who happens to own a business like a hotel or restaurant. For many of the rest I continue to view the transition into spring as a watershed.

The change will come when furlough ends people have a choice between lockdown ending or redundancy. Then they will experience what such business owners experienced earlier.

I think it's time to end furlough and also to cut the salaries of these SAGE bods to the same level as that of someone in the entertainment industry. Basically- to nothing. Then we'll see how keen they are for lockdowns to continue.

The public mood is already changing and I cannot see the economy managing to pay for much more furlough. Nor can passenger rail sector staff feel secure, I feel some big changes in the wind. Again- I am sure attitudes will change, a person's income/job being under threat tends to lead to their reapprisal of risk strangely enough.

Put resource into "fever hospitals" for nursing people who have complications and let the rest of us get on with life. Yes, I know there is a training need but I really don't think that is insurmountable.

TPO

Nicholas Lewis · 1 Mar 2021

TPO said:
The change will come when furlough ends people have a choice between lockdown ending or redundancy. Then they will experience what such business owners experienced earlier.

I think it's time to end furlough and also to cut the salaries of these SAGE bods to the same level as that of someone in the entertainment industry. Basically- to nothing. Then we'll see how keen they are for lockdowns to continue.

The public mood is already changing and I cannot see the economy managing to pay for much more furlough. Nor can passenger rail sector staff feel secure, I feel some big changes in the wind. Again- I am sure attitudes will change, a person's income/job being under threat tends to lead to their reapprisal of risk strangely enough.

Put resource into "fever hospitals" for nursing people who have complications and let the rest of us get on with life. Yes, I know there is a training need but I really don't think that is insurmountable.

TPO

Agreed but govt have lost there way over this and Sunak in backtracking previously over furlough means he will look bad now if he doesn't continue it until business can reopen. He would serve us better now by pushing for an acceleration of relaxation to get economy back online at every opportunity..

david1212 · 1 Mar 2021

Nicholas Lewis said:
Agreed but govt have lost there way over this and Sunak in backtracking previously over furlough means he will look bad now if he doesn't continue it until business can reopen. He would serve us better now by pushing for an acceleration of relaxation to get economy back online at every opportunity..

I'm sure all along he and others in the treasury have been pushing for this just as hard as Hanncock, Whitty, SAGE etc have been pushing restrictions and lockdowns. Boris & Co in the middle have had to strike the balance of keeping hospital admissions just manageable. Sunak was left with no option but to extend furlough and with the currently proposed roadmap I don't see how he can avoid another extension until the end of June. The difference now is that vaccinations should significantly reduce hospital admissions compared to last autumn.

Given from last June shops were supposed to be ' Covid Safe ' I still say they should not have been closed in November then this year. With online sales maybe VAT income has not been affected too much but there has been the cost of furlough for the staff and longer term how much has the viability of high street retail been changed ?

TPO · 2 Mar 2021

david1212 said:
I'm sure all along he and others in the treasury have been pushing for this just as hard as Hanncock, Whitty, SAGE etc have been pushing restrictions and lockdowns. Boris & Co in the middle have had to strike the balance of keeping hospital admissions just manageable. Sunak was left with no option but to extend furlough and with the currently proposed roadmap I don't see how he can avoid another extension until the end of June. The difference now is that vaccinations should significantly reduce hospital admissions compared to last autumn.

Given from last June shops were supposed to be ' Covid Safe ' I still say they should not have been closed in November then this year. With online sales maybe VAT income has not been affected too much but there has been the cost of furlough for the staff and longer term how much has the viability of high street retail been changed ?

Agreed.

You've also alluded to the biggest problem....... Boris. He likes to be liked yet is in a position of making decisions the soundest of which would be difficult and lead to not being liked. So he takes the decision that the most people will most like i.e. extending furlough and lockdown. The pain from the costs of this is as yet not felt and only theoretical so he gets more likes this way. Bit like Blair in the early days really, deciding by focus group or by leaving the decision as long as possible until there's few options if any left. Much as May was uninspiring I believe she'd have made a much better job of decision-making during COVID than Boris has done.

Whilst the EU is still in a COVID pickle he'll get away with it, but once other economies start to recover, I doubt the bond/lending market will be quite as ready to help and that's when the reckoning will come. Too late for many by then unfortunately.

TPO

Tezza1978 · 2 Mar 2021

Interesting that Hancock has said today that he is confident all restrictions - including social distancing - will end on June 21st.
He was more upbeat in yesterdays conference too - bar the "manhunt" section on the missing Brazilian COVID patient ***rolls eyes***

Class 33 · 2 Mar 2021

The review date of social distancing measures is supposed to be on 17th May. Not sure if the likes of Whitty and Vallance will be involved in that review(*** rolls eyes ***). But if all the hospital numbers and deaths stats continue falling and falling week on week, then they should be down to near enough ZERO by then. By which case there should be absolutely no justification to keep social distancing going beyond 21st June. Indeed they could even decide there's no justification for it to continue beyond that review date and they might as well announce to all "Social distancing is over with immediate effect folks. There's just no need for it any longer! You can get all get on with your lives properly now!".

Nicholas Lewis · 2 Mar 2021

Class 33 said:
The review date of social distancing measures is supposed to be on 17th May. Not sure if the likes of Whitty and Vallance will be involved in that review(*** rolls eyes ***). But if all the hospital numbers and deaths stats continue falling and falling week on week, then they should be down to near enough ZERO by then. By which case there should be absolutely no justification to keep social distancing going beyond 21st June. Indeed they could even decide there's no justification for it to continue beyond that review date and they might as well announce to all "Social distancing is over with immediate effect folks. There's just no need for it any longer! You can get all get on with your lives properly now!".

England hospital admission down significantly again today and now 34% down over the last week. All regions declining with the North showing an accelerating trend of decline now as well. There is clear compelling evidence that the current restrictions can be relaxed earlier but until they can be sure that schools returning aren't having an impact can't see BoJo given any ground just yet.

kristiang85 · 2 Mar 2021

Class 33 said:
The review date of social distancing measures is supposed to be on 17th May. Not sure if the likes of Whitty and Vallance will be involved in that review(*** rolls eyes ***). But if all the hospital numbers and deaths stats continue falling and falling week on week, then they should be down to near enough ZERO by then. By which case there should be absolutely no justification to keep social distancing going beyond 21st June. Indeed they could even decide there's no justification for it to continue beyond that review date and they might as well announce to all "Social distancing is over with immediate effect folks. There's just no need for it any longer! You can get all get on with your lives properly now!".

I thought June 21st was the aim for social distancing to be dropped? As otherwise how would summer events happen 'normally'?

Huntergreed · 2 Mar 2021

kristiang85 said:
I thought June 21st was the aim for social distancing to be dropped? As otherwise how would summer events happen 'normally'?

June 21st for all restrictions on gatherings I thought, not distancing or masks

35B · 2 Mar 2021

Huntergreed said:
June 21st for all restrictions on gatherings I thought, not distancing or masks

That seems to be the detail, not the headline.

kristiang85 · 2 Mar 2021

Huntergreed said:
June 21st for all restrictions on gatherings I thought, not distancing or masks

But how do they expect gatherings to happen with social distancing in place?

I'm guessing there must be a lot of confidence it will be booted, as Leeds and Reading festivals are going ahead. I can't imagine a socially distanced mosh pit...!

Class 33 · 2 Mar 2021

kristiang85 said:
I thought June 21st was the aim for social distancing to be dropped? As otherwise how would summer events happen 'normally'?

Well yes the aim is for social distancing and all other restrictions to all be dropped on 21st June. Many festivals(amongst other sectors) are trusting and banking on that happening. One festival for instance that WAS due to take place from 17th June, has moved their date to just one week later on the 24th June, since that "roadmap" announcement of ALL restrictions to be scrapped on 21st June. The organisers of that festival(and indeed many other festivals) will be fuming if the date all restrictions are lifted gets delayed and their festival can't go ahead.

But even then, this review of social distancing is still due to take place on 17th May. There's every reason by then why they should decide that there's no just further justification whatsoever for this hugely damaging and restrictive social distancing to continue beyond 21st June. But will be a bonus if it's decided all restrictions can be lifted before then by a week or two or three.

kristiang85 said:
But how do they expect gatherings to happen with social distancing in place?

I'm guessing there must be a lot of confidence it will be booted, as Leeds and Reading festivals are going ahead. I can't imagine a socially distanced mosh pit...!

Indeed. For the large majority of festivals, it's either no social distancing atall or no festival atall. Completely financially unviable to run a festival with social distancing and large reductions on capacity/tickets. Plus it's just not in the nature of going to festivals of having to keep remaining 2 metres away from anyone!

brad465 · 2 Mar 2021

TPO said:
Agreed.

You've also alluded to the biggest problem....... Boris. He likes to be liked yet is in a position of making decisions the soundest of which would be difficult and lead to not being liked. So he takes the decision that the most people will most like i.e. extending furlough and lockdown. The pain from the costs of this is as yet not felt and only theoretical so he gets more likes this way. Bit like Blair in the early days really, deciding by focus group or by leaving the decision as long as possible until there's few options if any left. Much as May was uninspiring I believe she'd have made a much better job of decision-making during COVID than Boris has done.

Whilst the EU is still in a COVID pickle he'll get away with it, but once other economies start to recover, I doubt the bond/lending market will be quite as ready to help and that's when the reckoning will come. Too late for many by then unfortunately.

TPO

It's not just what Boris Johnson thinks is the most liked decision, it what he thinks will get him to tomorrow, without thinking any further ahead. This has also applied with Brexit and practically every other policy he's been involved in.

Elsewhere with 343 deaths today, a relatively low value for a Tuesday in recent weeks, the 7 day decline rate is now -36%; it was slower than -30% a week ago more or less, so the linear decline is clearly showing. Expecting hospital admissions to do the same, in England they are dropping away, but I don't think they've been updating the national figures on the dashboard recently for some reason, which doesn't correlate with the England only graph.

Crossover · 2 Mar 2021

brad465 said:
It's not just what Boris Johnson thinks is the most liked decision, it what he thinks will get him to tomorrow, without thinking any further ahead. This has also applied with Brexit and practically every other policy he's been involved in.

Elsewhere with 343 deaths today, a relatively low value for a Tuesday in recent weeks, the 7 day decline rate is now -36%; it was slower than -30% a week ago more or less, so the linear decline is clearly showing. Expecting hospital admissions to do the same, in England they are dropping away, but I don't think they've been updating the national figures on the dashboard recently for some reason, which doesn't correlate with the England only graph.

The hospital admissions are missing Scotland for a few days. The 1,110 admissions on 23rd Feb is 686 on the 27th Feb without Scotland. Even if we add in Scotland as having 60 admissions that day (which should be on the high side given the preceeding data) then it would give an admission number of 746 for that day

Nicholas Lewis · 2 Mar 2021

I see Nicola Sturgeon in her daily briefing today made the following statement

Between now and then - and in light of the positive data that I will report on today - we will be considering if it might be possible to accelerate the exit from lockdown in any way, consistent of course with the care and caution that we know continues to be necessary.

Should get the CRG excited and exert some pressure on BoJo to keep up

RomeoCharlie71 · 2 Mar 2021

Nicholas Lewis said:
I see Nicola Sturgeon in her daily briefing today made the following statement

Should get the CRG excited and exert some pressure on BoJo to keep up

The UK Government are already weeks ahead of Nicola Sturgeon in their exit from lockdown anyway. Full time return of all school students isn't expected in Scotland until April 19th, whereas it's March 8th in England, for example.

Nicholas Lewis · 2 Mar 2021

RomeoCharlie71 said:
The UK Government are already weeks ahead of Nicola Sturgeon in their exit from lockdown anyway. Full time return of all school students isn't expected in Scotland until April 19th, whereas it's March 8th in England, for example.

Fair point but at least she is reacting dynamically to the improving situation whereas BoJo is fixed on his dates despite his stuck record for weeks that the govt would be led by data not dates its actually the other way round.

RomeoCharlie71 · 2 Mar 2021

Nicholas Lewis said:
Fair point but at least she is reacting dynamically to the improving situation whereas BoJo is fixed on his dates despite his stuck record for weeks that the govt would be led by data not dates its actually the other way round.

I think Nicola Sturgeon is also fixated on a date - that being May 6th. I wouldn't put it past her to announce around 2 weeks before that a mass lifting of restrictions, just in time for the postal voters.

Bald Rick · 2 Mar 2021

Nicholas Lewis said:
Fair point but at least she is reacting dynamically to the improving situation whereas BoJo is fixed on his dates despite his stuck record for weeks that the govt would be led by data not dates its actually the other way round.

I think it’s more that she’s realised that UK Gov got it right in the first place, and the Scot Gov desire to be ‘different’ has rather backfired given the views I’ve heard from my friends north of the border.

takno · 2 Mar 2021

Nicholas Lewis said:
Fair point but at least she is reacting dynamically to the improving situation whereas BoJo is fixed on his dates despite his stuck record for weeks that the govt would be led by data not dates its actually the other way round.

She's set a ridiculously late date to start exiting lockdown, has no end-date at all for all restrictions, and is returning to normality via the entirely unwelcome tiers with a lasting threat of attempting zero-Covid. Her announcement this week that those tiers will have massively more restrictive thresholds than before Christmas is really putting the topping on it. She's sitting defending a set of hefty and destructive restrictions, and just a couple of months from an election she could easily still lose.

I'd say she'll need to react a lot more dynamically than a meaningless throwaway phrase.

35B · 2 Mar 2021

takno said:
She's set a ridiculously late date to start exiting lockdown, has no end-date at all for all restrictions, and is returning to normality via the entirely unwelcome tiers with a lasting threat of attempting zero-Covid. Her announcement this week that those tiers will have massively more restrictive thresholds than before Christmas is really putting the topping on it. She's sitting defending a set of hefty and destructive restrictions, and just a couple of months from an election she could easily still lose.

I'd say she'll need to react a lot more dynamically than a meaningless throwaway phrase.

You also didn’t mention the vote of confidence she’s facing...

david1212 · 2 Mar 2021

Just on 10 o'clock news the headline is the furlough scheme extended to September and additional support for the self-employed.

Budget 2021: Rishi Sunak to extend furlough scheme until September

The move will help millions of people, Rishi Sunak says, ahead of setting out his tax and spending plans.

www.bbc.co.uk

As previously posted I expected until the end of June and maybe July but not September. Instead I expected some other support for business so they could concentrate on the current situation and the future without wondering about repaying the costs incurred in some cases over 15 months. After all far from all will be able to return to trading as in 2019 within a month.

On one hand another 5 months of security for both businesses and employees. On the other behind the scenes are there already serious concerns that the situation from mid-June might be significantly diffrerent to the announced road map.

brad465 · 2 Mar 2021

david1212 said:
Just on 10 o'clock news the headline is the furlough scheme extended to September and additional support.

As previously posted I expected until the end of June and maybe July but not September. Instead I expected some other support for business so they could concentrate on the current situation and the future without wondering about repaying the costs incurred in some cases over 15 months. After all far from all will be able to return to trading as in 2019 within a month.

On one hand another 5 months of security for both businesses and employees. On the other behind the scenes are there already serious concerns about if the situation from mid-June will be significantly different to the announced road map.

I don't think end of September means restrictions will last longer than June 21st, especially if stats are very good and immense pressure is applied. I think this is more likely to have political means behind it, in the sense that I imagine in the eyes of the Government its better to put this off as long as possible rather than face the music of high unemployment, which never rides well with the electorate, and in terms of one's one personal support, Sunak could delay any emerging consequences of furlough until a time after he's become PM, and in Johnson's case he could be well off into the sunset as well.

Class 33 · 2 Mar 2021

An article on The Telegraph website Covid Deaths falling ahead of estimates as calls grow for faster easing of lockdown. The full article is behind a paywall though, so can't post the full article!

Fall in Covid deaths ahead of estimates as calls for quicker lockdown easing grow

Government has said it will lift restrictions based on 'data not dates', and figures show second wave declining faster than expected

www.telegraph.co.uk

The fall in Covid deaths in England<is running around three weeks ahead of modelling estimates, figures show, as experts called for lockdown to be eased more quickly.

Boris Johnson has promised that the Government will lift restrictions based on "data not dates", and figures now show that Britain's second virus wave is declining far faster than expected.

The most recent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (SPI-M) projections were produced on Feb 10 and were pivotal in developing the Government's roadmap out of restrictions.

The midpoint projections estimated that deaths in England would not fall below 200 a day until around mid-March – but that point was reached on Feb 25.

SPI-M suggested there would be around 150 deaths a day by March 21, when the model ends. But daily deaths by date of death are around that now, although there will be a small increase because of lagged data in coming days.

22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

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