22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

NorthOxonian · 2 Mar 2021

Class 33 said:
An article on The Telegraph website Covid Deaths falling ahead of estimates as calls grow for faster easing of lockdown. The full article is behind a paywall though, so can't post the full article!

Fall in Covid deaths ahead of estimates as calls for quicker lockdown easing grow

Government has said it will lift restrictions based on 'data not dates', and figures show second wave declining faster than expected

www.telegraph.co.uk

Oddly, when I went on there, the paywall had vanished, so here's the quote:

The fall in Covid deaths in England is running around three weeks ahead of modelling estimates, figures show, as experts called for lockdown to be eased more quickly.
Boris Johnson has promised that the Government will lift restrictions based on "data not dates", and figures now show that Britain's second virus wave is declining far faster than expected.
The most recent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (SPI-M) projections were produced on Feb 10 and were pivotal in developing the Government's roadmap out of restrictions.
The midpoint projections estimated that deaths in England would not fall below 200 a day until around mid-March – but that point was reached on Feb 25.
SPI-M suggested there would be around 150 deaths a day by March 21, when the model ends. But daily deaths by date of death are around that now, although there will be a small increase because of lagged data in coming days.
Covid-19 daily deaths in England
Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh and a member of SPI-M, said: "The data are indeed looking better than the models were predicting and – to the best of my knowledge – better than anyone was expecting.
"If the phrase 'data-driven not date-driven' has any meaning, then it must allow for the schedule for relaxing restrictions to be brought forward if the data are better than expected and not just putting the schedule back if the data are worse than expected.
"It remains the case that if we unlock too far, too quickly, we risk a resurgence. However, given the data, I'd hope that the Government is actively considering unlocking just as cautiously but appreciably less slowly.
"Lockdown continues to be just as harmful as ever, so there is a public health imperative to relax measures as soon as it is safe to do so. An over-abundance of caution is not a cost-free option."
The modelling may be running behind real-world data because it has failed to judge quite how well the vaccination programme would go.
For the purposes of the roadmap, SPI-M estimated that vaccines would reduce the risk of infection between 24 and 48 per cent after the first dose, and 30 to 60 per cent after the second dose. But real world results show vaccination is far more effective, reducing the risk by 70 per cent after one dose and 85 per cent after two doses.
Is the UK on track to hit vaccination targets?
Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, of the University of Cambridge, said: "If we look at what is happening every day as we see on the [Government's coronavirus] dashboard, we can see that deaths in the over-65s – one of the vaccinated age groups – are now halving every week.
"We all sort of hoped something like this might happen – but frankly it is better than anyone expected, I think."
The numbers of new hospital admissions are also falling slightly faster than anticipated by the SPI-M model. Admissions in England fell to roughly 1,000 by Feb 21, but the midpoint on the models suggested around 1,200 cases at the same point. The seven-day rolling figure shows numbers are closer to those modelled.
Daily Covid hospitalisations in England
One government adviser said scientists had consistently failed to update their models as new data became available throughout the pandemic.
"This has been a problem all the way through," the adviser said. "You can get so obsessed with models that, if the world doesn't fit, you have to make the world fit or ignore the world."
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
"It's a very positive story in terms of the rollout of the vaccine, and the situation is looking very good in the elderly. Admissions are coming down and the number of people in hospital could well be below 10,000 within the next few days."
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that 56.4 per cent of the over-80s in England now have Covid antibodies following the vaccine rollout – an increase of 37 per cent in a fortnight.
Overall, nearly one in four over-16s in England now has immunity to coronavirus – a total of 10.5 million people and an increase of 23.3 per cent in two weeks. The devolved nations are not doing quite so well, however, with just 18.5 per cent of the over-80s showing antibodies in Wales, 20.7 per cent in Scotland and 17.6 per cent in Northern Ireland.

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david1212 · 2 Mar 2021

brad465 said:
I don't think end of September means restrictions will last longer than June 21st, especially if stats are very good and immense pressure is applied. I think this is more likely to have political means behind it, in the sense that I imagine in the eyes of the Government its better to put this off as long as possible rather than face the music of high unemployment, which never rides well with the electorate, and in terms of one's one personal support, Sunak could delay any emerging consequences of furlough until a time after he's become PM, and in Johnson's case he could be well off into the sunset as well.

I do hope this is right. The day the true unemployment numbers have to be announced will be a bad day for the government. If by then there are major changes e.g. Bojo riding into the sunset and Sunak as PM who ever steps into other roles can say what amounts to ' I was not in the hot seat during the Covid pandemic - don't blame me, I'm just picking up the pieces '.

brad465 · 2 Mar 2021

david1212 said:
I do hope this is right. The day the true unemployment numbers have to be announced will be a bad day for the government. If by then there are major changes e.g. Bojo riding into the sunset and Sunak as PM who ever steps into other roles can say what amounts to ' I was not in the hot seat during the Covid pandemic - don't blame me, I'm just picking up the pieces '.

It should be pointed out that in July employers will have to contribute 10% and from 1st August 20%, so it's not the full 80% in taxpayer money for the extension period. Given this will be case, expect those on furlough with no jobs to go back to be laid off at the end of June if all restrictions are lifted by then, as if employers don't see an immediate improvement financially on the way there's no way they can afford to contribute anything to someone not earning their business money.

ScottGallagher · 2 Mar 2021

There's has been much speculation about Furlough, The Sun claimed today it was only being extended until May. I plumped for July and now its announced as September.
Considering the extent of the last extension I can't help feeling worried about the current roadmap.

Tezza1978 · 2 Mar 2021

ScottGallagher said:
There's has been much speculation about Furlough, The Sun claimed today it was only being extended until May. I plumped for July and now its announced as September.
Considering the extent of the last extension I can't help feeling worried about the current roadmap.

Barring an unpredictable catastrophe - I can't see dates being pushed back. Data is already well ahead of SAGE's models, backbenchers know this and wont stand for anything more than a minimal delay (a week or so - maximum). My prediction - social distancing and masks will be mostly dropped on June 21st but may hang on in a few settings (GP surgeries, hospitals, care homes etc). Still a possibility that they will be brought back in the winter but I sincerely hope not.

Watershed · 2 Mar 2021

Whilst there was terrible uncertainty last October when furlough was extended quite literally at the last hour, extending furlough to September is going too far in the other direction.

It makes it far too easy to justify extensions of, or new, lockdowns - without so much as even undertaking a benefit-cost analysis. It is essentially a blank cheque.

Anyone who really thought that this will all be over by June is kidding themselves, I'm afraid. The signs are pretty obvious!

35B · 2 Mar 2021

Watershed said:
Whilst there was terrible uncertainty last October when furlough was extended quite literally at the last hour, extending furlough to September is going too far in the other direction.

It makes it far too easy to justify extensions of, or new, lockdowns - without so much as even undertaking a benefit-cost analysis. It is essentially a blank cheque.

Anyone who really thought that this will all be over by June is kidding themselves, I'm afraid. The signs are pretty obvious!

It allows firms to plan well into the reopening, with larger employers not having to make their decisions until they can see how things are panning out. The problem with previous cut offs has been that employment law has forced employers to make decisions before they’ve been able to see what’s happening, because of the mandatory consultation periods.

Nicholas Lewis · 2 Mar 2021

NorthOxonian said:
Oddly, when I went on there, the paywall had vanished, so here's the quote:

Until school effect is known they will sit tight but then the games up and they will have to budge.

Chester1 · 2 Mar 2021

Watershed said:
Anyone who really thought that this will all be over by June is kidding themselves, I'm afraid. The signs are pretty obvious!

That was more or less my view. I expect relatively normality but for masks indoors and at home quarantine to be maintained, along with limits on large public gatherings. I can't see those being lifted for another 15 months with risk from variants being the justification.

P Binnersley · 2 Mar 2021

Extending furlough to September gives businesses an opportunity to respond to increasing demand. Demand won't all come back the day restrictions are lifted, but if the roadmap dates hold, businesses should have a good idea where they are heading by the end of August when they need to make a decision on redundancies.

Class 33 · 2 Mar 2021

There's no way all these restrictions will last another 15 MONTHS!!! Many festivals have confirmed they'll be going ahead this year. Indeed the roadmap mentions that mass gatherings/festivals will be permitted from 21st June. The roadmap mentions nightclubs reopening on 21st June, and there's no way they'll be operate with face mask wearing requirements! The same goes for venues like theatres, cinemas, coach holiday operators, etc.

We need a good reassuring post from Duncanp to explain about the situation about the furlough extended until September but that all restrictions should still be lifted by 21st June.

bramling · 2 Mar 2021

Class 33 said:
There's no way all these restrictions will last another 15 MONTHS!!! Many festivals have confirmed they'll be going ahead this year. Indeed the roadmap mentions that mass gatherings/festivals will be permitted from 21st June. The roadmap mentions nightclubs reopening on 21st June, and there's no way they'll be operate with face mask wearing requirements! The same goes for venues like theatres, cinemas, coach holiday operators, etc.

We need a good reassuring post from Duncanp to explain about the situation about the furlough extended until September but that all restrictions should still be lifted by 21st June.

The cynical explanation is it allows Sunak to replace Boris before all the nasty stuff starts.

RomeoCharlie71 · 3 Mar 2021

Chester1 said:
That was more or less my view. I expect relatively normality but for masks indoors and at home quarantine to be maintained, along with limits on large public gatherings. I can't see those being lifted for another 15 months with risk from variants being the justification.

There will always be variants. Just like the thousands there already are.

We cannot maintain restrictions in threat of a new variant. Do we all live in lead boxes in case of nuclear radiation exposure? (Ok, that may be an extreme example. But same premise applies)

yorkie · 3 Mar 2021

Chester1 said:
That was more or less my view. I expect relatively normality but for masks indoors and at home quarantine to be maintained, along with limits on large public gatherings. I can't see those being lifted for another 15 months with risk from variants being the justification.

All viruses constantly change; these changes can be known as 'variants'; it has been happening since day one and the process will never cease.

Chester1 · 3 Mar 2021

RomeoCharlie71 said:
There will always be variants. Just like the thousands there already are.

We cannot maintain restrictions in threat of a new variant. Do we all live in lead boxes in case of nuclear radiation exposure? (Ok, that may be an extreme example. But same premise applies)

yorkie said:
All viruses constantly change; these changes can be known as 'variants'; it has been happening since day one and the process will never cease.

I agree, I just can't see the Govermment actually following through on lifting all restrictions until we have gone through the whole of the whole of the next flu season. Coronavirus is less seasonal but I think they will want to keep the borders fairly tight and have basic measures in place within the UK until they have seen what happens over a year or so.

brad465 · 3 Mar 2021

bramling said:
The cynical explanation is it allows Sunak to replace Boris before all the nasty stuff starts.

Yes this is my thinking too.

Elsewhere the Texas state Governor is announcing a lifting of all restrictions in the state next week, including its mask mandate and all currently closed businesses reopening. I believe this has some relevance here because it will be a good test to find out how effective/necessary restrictions actually are, especially with a mass vaccination rollout taking place, and if no serious consequences arise, say by mid-April, then we may see those against restrictions using this as evidence:

Coronavirus: Texas and other states ease rules despite warnings

Texas and other states move to roll back Covid-19 rules, putting them at odds with health officials.

www.bbc.co.uk

Texas will lift its mask mandate and allow businesses to reopen at full capacity next week, Governor Greg Abbott has announced.

"It is now time to open Texas 100%," the Republican said on Tuesday.

Texas is the largest US state to end its mask mandate. Mr Abbott has faced criticism from his party over the measure, which was imposed last July.

But the administration of US President Joe Biden has made it clear coronavirus restrictions are still necessary.

Texas has recorded more than 43,000 deaths related to Covid-19, the third highest state toll in the US.

Mr Abbott announced he was lifting of the restrictions in a speech at the Chamber of Commerce in the city of Lubbock on Tuesday.

"Too many Texans have been sidelined from employment opportunities," he said. "Too many small business owners have struggled to pay their bills. This must end."

yorkie · 3 Mar 2021

Chester1 said:
I agree, I just can't see the Govermment actually following through on lifting all restrictions until we have gone through the whole of the whole of the next flu season. Coronavirus is less seasonal but I think they will want to keep the borders fairly tight and have basic measures in place within the UK until they have seen what happens over a year or so.

I am sure I am not alone in committing to going back to normal in a few months regardless of whether the Government authorises it or not. I am confident the Government will, though. For me, the only question is whether the easing happens as slowly as currently planned, or happens sooner.

People are rapidly approaching the point where enough is enough. If the Government doesn't realise this yet, they will soon.

brad465 said:
Elsewhere the Texas state Governor is announcing a lifting of all restrictions in the state next week, including its mask mandate and all currently closed businesses reopening. I believe this has some relevance here because it will be a good test to find out how effective/necessary restrictions actually are, especially with a mass vaccination rollout taking place, and if no serious consequences arise, say by mid-April, then we may see those against restrictions using this as evidence:

It's not a direct comparison but as we are so much further ahead with the vaccine than they are, we can confidently say, if it works for them, it'll work for us!

If it doesn't work for them, well they have done it at a stage where it would have been equivalent to us doing this several weeks ago!

bramling · 3 Mar 2021

yorkie said:
I am sure I am not alone in committing to going back to normal in a few months regardless of whether the Government authorises it or not. I am confident the Government will, though. For me, the only question is whether the easing happens as slowly as currently planned, or happens sooner.

People are rapidly approaching the point where enough is enough. If the Government doesn't realise this yet, they will soon.

It's not a direct comparison but as we are so much further ahead with the vaccine than they are, we can confidently say, if it works for them, it'll work for us!

If it doesn't work for them, well they have done it at a stage where it would have been equivalent to us doing this several weeks ago!

I don’t think it would take too much, in other words “terrifying new variant on the loose which might evade vaccines”, to get people back in their box again.

Furlough ending and more people noticing a hit to their pocket might be effective though.

yorkie · 3 Mar 2021

bramling said:
I don’t think it would take too much, in other words “terrifying new variant on the loose which might evade vaccines”, to get people back in their box again.

This has been a highly successful campaign but it's stalling as too many people are discovering the truth about variants. I'm going to create a new thread now...

Edit: done https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...riants-are-they-variants-or-scarients.214770/

Chester1 · 3 Mar 2021

bramling said:
I don’t think it would take too much, in other words “terrifying new variant on the loose which might evade vaccines”, to get people back in their box again.

Furlough ending and more people noticing a hit to their pocket might be effective though.

Furlough is being extended until the end of September in tomorrow's budget...

duncanp · 3 Mar 2021

Class 33 said:
There's no way all these restrictions will last another 15 MONTHS!!! Many festivals have confirmed they'll be going ahead this year. Indeed the roadmap mentions that mass gatherings/festivals will be permitted from 21st June. The roadmap mentions nightclubs reopening on 21st June, and there's no way they'll be operate with face mask wearing requir

We need a good reassuring post from Duncanp to explain about the situation about the furlough extended until September but that all restrictions should still be lifted by 21st June.

Happy to oblige.

The fact that the figures are better than expected means that it is more likely than not that the lockdown easing timetable is going to be adhered to. If anything, you can expect the dates to be brought forward by a couple of weeks.

How it is essential that the furlough scheme remains in place for a little while longer to enable businesses to adjust. You need to lift restrictions before the furlough scheme ends so that employers can gradually increase the number of people at work, and reduce the number of people on furlough. This is because it will take time for consumer confidence to return.

Some businesses will no longer be viable, and having furlough in place will give those employees time to look for another job, meaning that the consequent increase in unemployment will be smaller than it otherwise would have been.

There is simply no way that the current restrictions are going to remain in place until September, if only because the country cannot afford it any longer, we shall see in the budget today.

yorksrob · 3 Mar 2021

I'm still of the mind that "stay at home" should have been the first restriction to go as there are so many activities one can do at little risk away from the home.

That it is being dragged out for longer than necessary, shows the complete contempt for ordinary people that SAGE and their like have.

35B · 3 Mar 2021

brad465 said:
Yes this is my thinking too.

Elsewhere the Texas state Governor is announcing a lifting of all restrictions in the state next week, including its mask mandate and all currently closed businesses reopening. I believe this has some relevance here because it will be a good test to find out how effective/necessary restrictions actually are, especially with a mass vaccination rollout taking place, and if no serious consequences arise, say by mid-April, then we may see those against restrictions using this as evidence:

Coronavirus: Texas and other states ease rules despite warnings

Texas and other states move to roll back Covid-19 rules, putting them at odds with health officials.

www.bbc.co.uk

I’m not sure what conclusions I draw from that decision. Interpreting that choice, we need to bear in mind that Texas still has significant numbers of people without water after the failure of the energy system in winter storms, and that the impact of the multiple failures to protect the population are undermining the Republicans’ position. That means that this Republican givernor’s decision, more than usual, is about defending his party base rather than about managing the risk from Covid.

Richard Scott · 3 Mar 2021

bramling said:
I don’t think it would take too much, in other words “terrifying new variant on the loose which might evade vaccines”, to get people back in their box again.

Furlough ending and more people noticing a hit to their pocket might be effective though.

Not sure it would now, had quite a few of these stories and will end up being boy who cried wolf.

duncanp · 3 Mar 2021

Richard Scott said:
Not sure it would now, had quite a few of these stories and will end up being boy who cried wolf.

This is the thing, they say might evade vaccines when there is no evidence that this is the case. Until there is sufficient data you cannot make a judgement on whether the vaccines are significantly less effective, and the government should not be making policy decisions on the basis of what might happen.

The overwhelming likelihood is that existing vaccines will still have sufficient effect against new variants to reduce severity of illness and the risk of hospitalisation.

All the vaccine manufacturers are confident that their vaccines can be modified to take account of new variants if it is shown that the vaccines are significantly less effective.

Bantamzen · 3 Mar 2021

35B said:
I’m not sure what conclusions I draw from that decision. Interpreting that choice, we need to bear in mind that Texas still has significant numbers of people without water after the failure of the energy system in winter storms, and that the impact of the multiple failures to protect the population are undermining the Republicans’ position. That means that this Republican givernor’s decision, more than usual, is about defending his party base rather than about managing the risk from Covid.

Of course its primarily a political decision, coming out of the biggest energy crisis in living memory the Texan state wants to be seen to be doing something to recover, and allowing businesses to reopen will be see as just that. If you want a feel of how Texans themselves feel, keep an eye on them once the mandate is lifted. They are not stopping people wearing masks, or businesses requiring them, so a test of their true feeling will come when they are allowed the choice. Knowing people from that state, and having briefly visited there I suspect I know what their response will. They are a fiercely independent people.

Is it the right time to make this decision? Well from an economic point of view yes it is. From a scientific point of view it is less clear of course, and in an ideal world they would wait for the data. But it isn't an ideal world, the data will be months, maybe years in coming and people cannot leave their lives on hold until the analysists have played with the data. Texan courts can still mandate further measures if things go very wrong, but with vaccines rolling out plus better treatments (by US standards at least) the risk reduces with every single day that passes.

island · 3 Mar 2021

The extension of furlough to September is not in itself problematic, though I would have liked to see it tapered off a little earlier. As mentioned upthread, it needs to link in with the 90 day consultation period for redundancies at large employers, which will now be looking at what amount of staff they want (or can afford) into the future given the sea changes to society.

35B · 3 Mar 2021

Bantamzen said:
Of course its primarily a political decision, coming out of the biggest energy crisis in living memory the Texan state wants to be seen to be doing something to recover, and allowing businesses to reopen will be see as just that. If you want a feel of how Texans themselves feel, keep an eye on them once the mandate is lifted. They are not stopping people wearing masks, or businesses requiring them, so a test of their true feeling will come when they are allowed the choice. Knowing people from that state, and having briefly visited there I suspect I know what their response will. They are a fiercely independent people.

Is it the right time to make this decision? Well from an economic point of view yes it is. From a scientific point of view it is less clear of course, and in an ideal world they would wait for the data. But it isn't an ideal world, the data will be months, maybe years in coming and people cannot leave their lives on hold until the analysists have played with the data. Texan courts can still mandate further measures if things go very wrong, but with vaccines rolling out plus better treatments (by US standards at least) the risk reduces with every single day that passes.

However, if it doesn’t go well, I am not sure I see Abbot being willing to accept the consequences of his decision - this looks rather more like distraction tactics than genuine economic liberalisation.

yorkie · 3 Mar 2021

35B said:
Interpreting that choice, we need to bear in mind that Texas still has significant numbers of people without water after the failure of the energy system in winter storms, and that the impact of the multiple failures to protect the population are undermining the Republicans’ position. That means that this Republican givernor’s decision, more than usual, is about defending his party base rather than about managing the risk from Covid.

You mean the policy might be considering that the only issue in town isn't Covid19?

How dare they!

35B · 3 Mar 2021

yorkie said:
You mean the policy might be considering that the only issue in town isn't Covid19?

How dare they!

If I thought the politics were about supporting the people of Texas, I'd agree with you. As it is, my suspicions lean rather hard towards a dead cat strategy, using Covid to distract from the failures of power regulation in Texas.

22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

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