Will Keir Starmer last?

Typhoon · 8 May 2021

telstarbox said:
You might be surprised - in 1997 Labour had:
Dover
South Thanet
North Thanet
Sittingbourne and Sheppey
Medway (now Rochester)
Gillingham
Gravesham
Dartford

So almost a continuous string from Dover to London, in the towns which in recent years have been the poorer half of Kent. Admittedly that was the largest landslide but they were winnable once. That would have been with a higher proportion of home ownership and fewer renters as well.

I don't know why you assume that people who move to Kent because it's cheaper than London would be 'uninterested in politics' - if anything they would have more reason to vote against the government?

I'm not surprised (although North Thanet has been held by Roger Gale for the Conservatives since 1983), but it has changed in the last 24 years. More and more people seem to be having to travel to work, meaning they are away from home longer, some are having to take on second jobs, they are not necessarily living near their relations (who would be able to support them), there is the uncertainty of job security in some cases, they come home and are tired. Its a box-set and a take-away.

I did say that there are not really interested in politics, so Labour has to have policies that affect them directly, draw them in, get them interested, but something realistic, not like Corbyn's free broadband desperation measure. As an example, Blair introduced the minimum wage in 1999, the same government set in statute 18 weeks paid maternity leave. Directly affecting working people for the better and opposed by the Conservatives. Instead it is easy to taint Labour with madcap policies because one or two on the extreme left have blurted them out. As I wrote earlier Emily Thornberry's post hurt big time. Maybe they need to ask these people want they want, not just activists or interns - something concerning rights for those in the gig economy might be helpful, as the Tories will oppose it. I have no idea if it is possible but try to restrict the steep rise in house prices, all that happens now is the tax payer effectively pays money to the developers through stamp duty holidays and the like that enable prices to be jacked up. One problem is that our Prime Minister (and his predecessors) have pinched some of Labour's ideas - Living Wage, yea, right; green agenda (lots of targets to be met by someone else).

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deltic · 8 May 2021

TravelDream said:
It wasn't all bad for Labour.

In Wales Labour won 39.9% of the constituency vote which was up 5.2% compared to 2016. The Tories won 26.1% and were up 5.0% which is obviously less than Labour. FPTP means that Labour won 27/40 constituency seats on that share.

Labour also did incredibly well in Wales in places that are not too dissimilar to the likes of Hartlepool. There were swings from Conservative to Labour in places like Wrexham.

What did Welsh Labour do right that Labour in England didn't? We still have most of the same newspapers and UK news on TV.

During the pandemic the governing party in each devolved government received huge media coverage - Sturgeon and Drakeford benefited from that being seen as leaders who could get their countries through a difficult time. Opposition parties never got the same coverage. I bet far more people know the Drakeford now than a year ago and the same applies to the Tories in England with considerable exposure for many cabinet members who previously few would have recogonised. Labour was seen as the government of Wales and are doing well in delivering the vaccination programme as just as the Tories are seen in the same light in England and the SNP in Scotland.

telstarbox · 8 May 2021

Typhoon said:
I'm not surprised (although North Thanet has been held by Roger Gale for the Conservatives since 1983), but it has changed in the last 24 years. More and more people seem to be having to travel to work, meaning they are away from home longer, some are having to take on second jobs, they are not necessarily living near their relations (who would be able to support them), there is the uncertainty of job security in some cases, they come home and are tired. Its a box-set and a take-away.

I did say that there are not really interested in politics, so Labour has to have policies that affect them directly, draw them in, get them interested, but something realistic, not like Corbyn's free broadband desperation measure. As an example, Blair introduced the minimum wage in 1999, the same government set in statute 18 weeks paid maternity leave. Directly affecting working people for the better and opposed by the Conservatives. Instead it is easy to taint Labour with madcap policies because one or two on the extreme left have blurted them out. As I wrote earlier Emily Thornberry's post hurt big time. Maybe they need to ask these people want they want, not just activists or interns - something concerning rights for those in the gig economy might be helpful, as the Tories will oppose it. I have no idea if it is possible but try to restrict the steep rise in house prices, all that happens now is the tax payer effectively pays money to the developers through stamp duty holidays and the like that enable prices to be jacked up. One problem is that our Prime Minister (and his predecessors) have pinched some of Labour's ideas - Living Wage, yea, right; green agenda (lots of targets to be met by someone else).

Sorry you're quite right about North Thanet.

Bevan Price · 8 May 2021

I always expected it would take Labour many years to recover from the Milliband/Corbyn effect.
The far left seem to be living in the past. The days have long gone where industry mainly consisted of large factories, filled mainly with low-paid manual workers who would follow (and obey) the whims of militant trade union leaders and also vote for far-left policies. The failure of Scargill and his disastrous miners' strike should have been a clear warning that the public was fed up with that type of attitude. It is doubtful if a far left Labour Party can ever again get enough votes to win General Elections.

Unfortunately. "middle-ground" Labour also seems to be "lost in space" - unwilling to ditch the far left, but with - as yet - no clear, distinctive & progressive policies. Sir Keir Starmer seems sincere, but comes across as rather bland and ineffective.

The Lib-Dems committed politicial suicide by becoming part of a basically tory government. Whilst they retain some influence in a few councils, nationally they are likely to remain in the wilderness for many years - maybe forever.

And I don't think I could ever want to vote for the Greens. Whilst they are probably sincere in their personal beliefs, to me, they come across as being opposed to many things that I would regard as essential technological progress. I sometimes wonder if some of them wish we had remained as cave-dwellers.

And no - I did not vote for the wolf in sheep's clothing. (BJ). Maybe what we need is a completely new party, with a new vision - the near impossible, a party with sensible policies that always tells the truth, and acts for common sense reasons -- instead of the current situation where many seem to favour those who offer the most financial support. .

telstarbox · 8 May 2021

I think if you're going to mention "sensible policies" you should give us a few examples

brad465 · 8 May 2021

Bevan Price said:
I always expected it would take Labour many years to recover from the Milliband/Corbyn effect.
The far left seem to be living in the past. The days have long gone where industry mainly consisted of large factories, filled mainly with low-paid manual workers who would follow (and obey) the whims of militant trade union leaders and also vote for far-left policies. The failure of Scargill and his disastrous miners' strike should have been a clear warning that the public was fed up with that type of attitude. It is doubtful if a far left Labour Party can ever again get enough votes to win General Elections.

While I don't see much becoming of it, from what I've heard Covid has increased demands/support for more domestic manufacturing, for the sake of not depending on China (and its many regime problems), a more diverse economy that's resilient and also for ensuring critical goods' supplies are always available (like PPE, drugs in a pandemic sense). Generally I agree with this concept, but as said before don't see it happening.

That said even if this did advance further and become reality, I don't see a return to the past with the relevant politics from olden time Labour party days alongside.

Bevan Price said:
And no - I did not vote for the wolf in sheep's clothing. (BJ). Maybe what we need is a completely new party, with a new vision - the near impossible, a party with sensible policies that always tells the truth, and acts for common sense reasons -- instead of the current situation where many seem to favour those who offer the most financial support. .

This is in a way how UKIP got their surge in the early part of the last decade, as many had enough of the two main parties and certain political issues (like immigration and politicians being an out of touch elite). Then in 2015 we saw FPTP expose just how undemocratic a system it is, and in a way this is why two party politics kind of returned thereafter, away from the SNP's near monopoly in Scotland's Westminster seats. Therefore it's unfortunately a long shot a new party that forms can get somewhere, without the complete collapse of another party of similar alignment to the subject new party.

In a way the 2008 crash demonstrated Conservatism/Neoliberalism is out of date as well, but the left/centre-left could not think of an alternative way of doing things, and certainly not change on the scale of FDR in the 1930s, Atlee in 1945 or Thatcher/Reagan in the 80s, hence the Conservatives are still in power. The way Covid has been handled economically, particularly with housing bubbles and mounting private and public debt, is a good recipe for 2008 to be repeated. Should that happen, Labour or another party will have a good chance to find a new way of doing things, whether that happens remains to be seen.

Butts · 9 May 2021

Well it seems Angela Rayner has carried the can for Labours perceived failure in The Council Elections - being fired by Starmer.

That may turn out to be a mistake she's a feisty redhead and I don't think we have seen the last of her.

I'd certainly like to see a lot more of her.

Whistler40145 · 9 May 2021

We need a Labour Party leader who can take the bull by it's horns, has determination and can confront Boris Johnson

londiscape · 9 May 2021

There are some good commentaries on how Labour has abandoned its working class roots and become disgustingly sneery towards (them/us) - particularly from Paul Embery and Brendan O'Neill, two people who the Labour leadership would do well to listen to:

The working-class revolt against Labour

The local elections confirm that working people are sick of Labour’s sneering.

www.spiked-online.com

Labour isn't working

Getting rid of Keir won't solve the party's structural, cultural and existential problems

unherd.com

But as DarloRich has stated above - none of this explains why those people abandoned by Labour have turned to a charlatan like Boris Johnson instead - is it a case of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" or a case of Stockholm Syndrome:

https://unherd.com/thepost/the-overlooked-election-factor-stockholm-syndrome/

edwin_m · 9 May 2021

Bevan Price said:
I always expected it would take Labour many years to recover from the Milliband/Corbyn effect.
The far left seem to be living in the past. The days have long gone where industry mainly consisted of large factories, filled mainly with low-paid manual workers who would follow (and obey) the whims of militant trade union leaders and also vote for far-left policies. The failure of Scargill and his disastrous miners' strike should have been a clear warning that the public was fed up with that type of attitude. It is doubtful if a far left Labour Party can ever again get enough votes to win General Elections.

Unfortunately. "middle-ground" Labour also seems to be "lost in space" - unwilling to ditch the far left, but with - as yet - no clear, distinctive & progressive policies. Sir Keir Starmer seems sincere, but comes across as rather bland and ineffective.

The Lib-Dems committed politicial suicide by becoming part of a basically tory government. Whilst they retain some influence in a few councils, nationally they are likely to remain in the wilderness for many years - maybe forever.

And I don't think I could ever want to vote for the Greens. Whilst they are probably sincere in their personal beliefs, to me, they come across as being opposed to many things that I would regard as essential technological progress. I sometimes wonder if some of them wish we had remained as cave-dwellers.

And no - I did not vote for the wolf in sheep's clothing. (BJ). Maybe what we need is a completely new party, with a new vision - the near impossible, a party with sensible policies that always tells the truth, and acts for common sense reasons -- instead of the current situation where many seem to favour those who offer the most financial support. .

There's a lot of potential support for smaller parties, who won't vote for them because they have no chance of winning and it may give power to whichever of the larger parties they dislike more.

One possible radical course of action for Starmer?:

Propose a genuine proportional voting system in manifesto, and commit to calling a new election as soon as it is enacted
Strike a pact with the LibDems and greens, so only the party with the best chance of beating the Tories in each seat would put up a candidate

Effectively this would suspend normal politics for a year or so to totally reset the system, and make a new start where people are actually able to choose the party they want, and parties have to appeal to the whole electorate not just to their "base".

Butts said:
Well it seems Angela Rayner has carried the can for Labours perceived failure in The Council Elections - being fired by Starmer.

That may turn out to be a mistake she's a feisty redhead and I don't think we have seen the last of her.

I'd certainly like to see a lot more of her.

I don't know how much responsibility she has for the mistakes have been made, indeed I'm not too clear what the mistakes actually were other than selecting a bad candidate for Hartlepool - I think Labour's problems go much deeper.

However the "sacking" hasn't been handled well. Rayner is a Northerner in a key post and comes across as very genuine. It's been said that she will continue to have a prominent role (besides deputy leader, who is elected by the members so can't be sacked) so that role should have been announced at the same time.

Typhoon · 9 May 2021

edwin_m said:
I don't know how much responsibility she has for the mistakes have been made, indeed I'm not too clear what the mistakes actually were other than selecting a bad candidate for Hartlepool - I think Labour's problems go much deeper.

However the "sacking" hasn't been handled well. Rayner is a Northerner in a key post and comes across as very genuine. It's been said that she will continue to have a prominent role (besides deputy leader, who is elected by the members so can't be sacked) so that role should have been announced at the same time.

That, I think, is the problem. Have a general reshuffle, announce it as part of that. I would have thought that being the chair person of the Labour party in its current state was a job in itself, not for someone who has to fill in for the leader from time to time, can be called on to make statements about this that and the other by the media. Labour needs someone who can get round the constituencies, maybe sends the message to London loud and clear that we need a particular type of candidate or we are going to lose. If its an MP, it has to be someone with no other role who no-one cares whether they have voted on this bill or that. Someone who is out today in West Yorkshire (in case of a win in the mayoral election), talking to party officials there, talking to voters.

Pinching a quote from another thread:

DarloRich said:
Anyone with a shred of intelligence can see that isn't what has happened. Rayner is deputy leader of the Labour party. She cant be sacked form that role. What has really happened is that she has been moved from party chair ( a backroom position in the Labour party) and will be given a more meaty shadow cabinet role. Lets not let facts get in the way eh?

The only quibble I would have is that I think they need to be front room as well as back room; yes, they need to be on top of party organisation but they need to be seen and they need to bring the likes of Angela Rayner in to rally the troops, talk to the voters, get them on board. That is why it is a full time job.

As far as Angela Rayner goes she is a gobby (she would say 'fiery') northerner who should be set against one of the underperforming ministries, one where she can make use of her experience - Education or DWP, for instance.

I heard part of the interview Andrew Marr and Anas Sarwar; I was quite impressed, he sounded confident and had clearly had thought about the questions he would be asked and had answers. Not always the case with Labour.

DarloRich · 9 May 2021

Butts said:
Well it seems Angela Rayner has carried the can for Labours perceived failure in The Council Elections - being fired by Starmer.

That may turn out to be a mistake she's a feisty redhead and I don't think we have seen the last of her.

I'd certainly like to see a lot more of her.

She hasn't been sacked! She is the deputy leader of the party elected by members.

Whistler40145 said:
We need a Labour Party leader who can take the bull by it's horns, has determination and can confront Boris Johnson

We have one: the problem is Johnson is a wilful, spoilt child who simply lies and lies and lies. It is very hard to combat that by using sensible mature adult politics.

Arglwydd Golau · 9 May 2021

DarloRich said:
She hasn't been sacked! She is the deputy leader of the party elected by members.

Whatever has happened is surely poor management by Starmer...there is briefing that a 'significant new role' will be found for her, but surely to stop all the speculation and criticism of Starmer he should have placed her in a new role at the same time. Very poor handling of the situation.

DarloRich · 9 May 2021

Arglwydd Golau said:
Whatever has happened is surely poor management by Starmer...there is briefing that a 'significant new role' will be found for her, but surely to stop all the speculation and criticism of Starmer he should have placed her in a new role at the same time. Very poor handling of the situation.

I don't disagree. It would be interesting to see where the press briefs came from and at what point in the discussions mind.

DynamicSpirit · 9 May 2021

DarloRich said:
She hasn't been sacked! She is the deputy leader of the party elected by members.

Even LabourList are reporting that she's been sacked (as campaign coordinator obviously, not as deputy leader).

LabourList said:
Deputy leader Angela Rayner has been sacked as Labour Party chair and national campaign coordinator in a bold move by Keir Starmer in response to poor local election results across England.

Reacting to the news, a number of LabourList sources have pointed out that the party’s left and soft left are now likely to rally around Rayner. Allies of the deputy leader say she has been “silenced” over the past year.

As reported on Friday, LabourList understands that Rayner wanted Labour’s message in the May 2021 election campaign to be a real living wage for care workers but this idea was not adopted.

Reacting to the news, a frontbench Labour MP told LabourList: “Wrong response. Seems like a kneejerk reaction, which is the last thing we need.

Typhoon · 9 May 2021

telstarbox said:
Sorry you're quite right about North Thanet.

Not a problem. My main aim in putting the record straight is that some constituents might read this and the thought of living in somewhere which once voted Labour might bring on a heart attack.
Basically the constituency is 'Margate, Herne Bay and the Villages". Herne Bay is solid blue, the villages are solid blue, Margate is a bit mixed (but crucially, Cliftonville is part of the neighbouring constituency).

I am surprised that Labour don't put up a better show in Swale (Sittingbourne and Sheppey, for instance) and Gravesham.

Places like South Thanet did elect a Labour MP twice, seeing off the disgraced Jonathan Aitken but not only does it contain Broadstairs, but also the town of Sandwich and the surrounding villages. It is also the place that Nigel Farage chose to launch his parliamentary career - twice; on the second occasion, the Tories put forward a former UKIP man so is very much 'Leave'.

Similarly, Dover, I would have thought Labour should be doing rather better. Although it is very much 'Leave', the town itself should be fertile Labour territory (maybe it is a case of getting the votes out there?) Surely they can't be happy with the 'Naughty Tory', and now his (ex?) wife who blames the French for everything.

telstarbox · 9 May 2021

I would put Dover down to anti immigrant sentiment which is common across the Home Counties generally.

Typhoon · 9 May 2021

telstarbox said:
I would put Dover down to anti immigrant sentiment which is common across the Home Counties generally.

In particular quite a few of the constituencies that you mentioned in #149, I'm sorry to say. Some of them having the double whammy of being the target arrival zone for the overloaded dinghies and also providing the cheap accommodation for those who have come legally from Eastern Europe.

I don't know the answer to that. I live in North Thanet (that is why I was able to confidently make statements), and there are reminders around - Eastern European supermarkets and notices advising us to look out for small boats arriving (even though the water is to our north).

Whistler40145 · 9 May 2021

DarloRich said:
She hasn't been sacked! She is the deputy leader of the party elected by members.

We have one: the problem is Johnson is a wilful, spoilt child who simply lies and lies and lies. It is very hard to combat that by using sensible mature adult politics.

As you can probably tell, I'm not a Conservative supporter

75A · 9 May 2021

telstarbox said:
I would put Dover down to anti immigrant sentiment which is common across the Home Counties generally.

Not just the Home Counties, the Midlands is just the same.

edwin_m · 9 May 2021

DarloRich said:
I don't disagree. It would be interesting to see where the press briefs came from and at what point in the discussions mind.

Perhaps the person who put out the press briefs is the one who should be sacked.

Senex · 9 May 2021

edwin_m said:
There's a lot of potential support for smaller parties, who won't vote for them because they have no chance of winning and it may give power to whichever of the larger parties they dislike more.

One possible radical course of action for Starmer?:

Propose a genuine proportional voting system in manifesto, and commit to calling a new election as soon as it is enacted

Strike a pact with the LibDems and greens, so only the party with the best chance of beating the Tories in each seat would put up a candidate

Effectively this would suspend normal politics for a year or so to totally reset the system, and make a new start where people are actually able to choose the party they want, and parties have to appeal to the whole electorate not just to their "base".

That's probably the only way of making any progress as long as the Tories are dead set against any change to the voting system (and why should their attitude change given the extent to which they benefit from the present system?). But how can the smaller parties be persuaded to entr into an electoral pact, even if it had very specific time- and programme-limits written in? And how likely is it that Labour would join in, given that it's never been willing to enter into arrangements with other parties? (Except, of course, when Corbyn and Swinson managed to come together to give Johnson the general election he so craved.)

edwin_m · 9 May 2021

Senex said:
That's probably the only way of making any progress as long as the Tories are dead set against any change to the voting system (and why should their attitude change given the extent to which they benefit from the present system?). But how can the smaller parties be persuaded to entr into an electoral pact, even if it had very specific time- and programme-limits written in? And how likely is it that Labour would join in, given that it's never been willing to enter into arrangements with other parties? (Except, of course, when Corbyn and Swinson managed to come together to give Johnson the general election he so craved.)

I agree it's not very likely, but I'd suggest getting all the various Labour factions behind it is the main obstacle, especially as many or all of their desired policies might have to be dropped to focus the manifesto on a single issue. After their humiliation last time the LibDems might be persuaded that it's actually counter-productive to put someone up in every seat, and it's a way of getting electoral reform which has been their most consistent objective for decades. I think there is still latent support for them in many Southern seats (outside London) where Labour doesn't have much chance, but tactical voting under the current system really distorts the figures in opinion polls. The Greens could also be supportive, as they entered into a pact in 2019, but might have to have a bit more incentive than just a clear run at Brighton Pavilion plus the two seats where they came second then. I'm assuming the SNP wouldn't participate.

DynamicSpirit · 9 May 2021

I can't see an electoral pact with Labour working - too much hatred within Labour towards the LibDems; the overlap between LibDem and Labour voters isn't great enough so you'd have lots of supporters of one party refusing to vote for the other party, and - especially on the Labour side - actually getting pretty angry that they can't vote for their own party. Also, Labour sees itself and wants to project itself as one of the two main parties, and the optics for Labour of not standing in quite a few seats would totally clash with that image. Labour would just never agree to it, even if it was a good idea.

On the other hand, I can see an electoral pact between the LibDems and the Greens working very well. Both parties openly exist as underdogs in a system dominated by Labour and the Tories, so there wouldn't really be much bad optics involved in either party admitting that it's best not to be standing in every seat. There's no particular animosity between the parties, and they are both chasing largely the same voters, so I'd imagine relatively few voters of one party would refuse to vote for the other.

Butts · 9 May 2021

DynamicSpirit said:
I can't see an electoral pact with Labour working - too much hatred within Labour towards the LibDems; the overlap between LibDem and Labour voters isn't great enough so you'd have lots of supporters of one party refusing to vote for the other party, and - especially on the Labour side - actually getting pretty angry that they can't vote for their own party. Also, Labour sees itself and wants to project itself as one of the two main parties, and the optics for Labour of not standing in quite a few seats would totally clash with that image. Labour would just never agree to it, even if it was a good idea.

On the other hand, I can see an electoral pact between the LibDems and the Greens working very well. Both parties openly exist as underdogs in a system dominated by Labour and the Tories, so there wouldn't really be much bad optics involved in either party admitting that it's best not to be standing in every seat. There's no particular animosity between the parties, and they are both chasing largely the same voters, so I'd imagine relatively few voters of one party would refuse to vote for the other.

Everyone is going on about the Red Wall, but your biggest problem is The Tartan Wall that preceded it and is much harder to scale.

Those 40 odd guaranteed seats you used to get !!!

Their absence seriously hinders the Election of a UK Labour Government.

birchesgreen · 9 May 2021

Well Scotland is not coming back to Labour anytime soon. The problem with this talk of walls is the entitlement it enables. No seat should be considered that safe in a country that is as fast changing as this one is now.

Butts · 9 May 2021

birchesgreen said:
Well Scotland is not coming back to Labour anytime soon. The problem with this talk of walls is the entitlement it enables. No seat should be considered that safe in a country that is as fast changing as this one is now.

Not a wall but at least "Offa's Dyke" for the moment seems like Labour's only banker.

edwin_m · 9 May 2021

DynamicSpirit said:
I can't see an electoral pact with Labour working - too much hatred within Labour towards the LibDems; the overlap between LibDem and Labour voters isn't great enough so you'd have lots of supporters of one party refusing to vote for the other party, and - especially on the Labour side - actually getting pretty angry that they can't vote for their own party. Also, Labour sees itself and wants to project itself as one of the two main parties, and the optics for Labour of not standing in quite a few seats would totally clash with that image. Labour would just never agree to it, even if it was a good idea.

On the other hand, I can see an electoral pact between the LibDems and the Greens working very well. Both parties openly exist as underdogs in a system dominated by Labour and the Tories, so there wouldn't really be much bad optics involved in either party admitting that it's best not to be standing in every seat. There's no particular animosity between the parties, and they are both chasing largely the same voters, so I'd imagine relatively few voters of one party would refuse to vote for the other.

You may well be right, disappointingly. I tend to think there is enough hatred of Boris out there among previous and potential LibDem voters that the mistakes of 2010-2019 might have faded a bit from memory by 2024. Or the Greens may be supplanting them as the home of those who don't like either Labour or Tories. There's now zero chance of LibDems propping up the Tories again.

There was a pact between LibDems and Greens (and Change UK) in 2019. Nobody noticed particularly, and without Labour on board it made very little difference.

SteveM70 · 9 May 2021

Butts said:
Well it seems Angela Rayner has carried the can for Labours perceived failure in The Council Elections - being fired by Starmer.

As my grandad used to say at times like this “deputy heads will roll”

And today, even when things go well for Labour (winning the West Yorkshire mayoral election) there’s a potentially negative consequence (a by-election in Batley and Spen). If there’s a repeat of Hartlepool it’ll be open season on Starmer.

brad465 · 9 May 2021

Something that is only getting footnotes in certain articles, but on the face of it looks like a potential good move, is that Starmer has appointed Deborah Mattinson to be new head of strategy for the party, where she wrote a book about why Labour lost much of the so-called red wall, having spoken to voters in the said area as sources for the book's content.

Will Keir Starmer last?

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