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Super Thursday - Elections 2021

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Typhoon

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The PCC poll will be on August 19th by the way and the other candidates are absolutely right!
So a poll in the middle of August when people haven't been able to travel that far for over a year, for a post which traditionally 'attracts' low voter turn out in an area where the council is not exactly on a knife-edge. I wouldn't expect there will be clamour to get in to vote when the doors open.

Candidates have got until the end of July to declare. It might be helpful if other parties stood aside and let the LibDem candidate fight it out with the Tories on a 'we didn't waste your money' ticket. (A LibDem was second in May). They may not get that many converts but they may get enough of those who voted for Seed (the debarred candidate) to stay at home.

Underlined section - I quite agree.
 
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ainsworth74

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I wouldn't expect there will be clamour to get in to vote when the doors open.

I think it was the first round of PCC elections where a number of areas were opening ballot boxes which were empty as no-one had voted in that polling station as they were held "out of season" as it were and not alongside any other elections. Certainly in my area turnout was something like 15%. I wonder if this one might actually end up being the lowest ever for a PCC election? Sooner we can ditch the post the better as far as I'm concerned.
 

Typhoon

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Sooner we can ditch the post the better as far as I'm concerned.
Couldn't agree more. I put a notice on the door saying that I would consider voting for any candidate who would campaign to abolish the position, otherwise, don't bother me. No-one knocked, but also I got none of the junk mail that neighbours got. Police precept has gone up by almost 40% in 4 years for no obvious benefit. An unnecessary level of bureaucracy.
 

birchesgreen

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I think it was the first round of PCC elections where a number of areas were opening ballot boxes which were empty as no-one had voted in that polling station as they were held "out of season" as it were and not alongside any other elections. Certainly in my area turnout was something like 15%. I wonder if this one might actually end up being the lowest ever for a PCC election? Sooner we can ditch the post the better as far as I'm concerned.
Turnout was 10.38% when we had a PCC by-election here, see if they can beat that!
 
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Turnout was 10.38% when we had a PCC by-election here, see if they can beat that!

The West Midlands had 10.41% in 2014, following the death of the first one elected.

No doubt though, that 31.02% is much better than 2012’s first election of 12.31% and knowing Labour bucked the trend here in WM and held on - despite a pasting in the Mayoral, I hope the post stays!

Also to note, the 2nd preference votes for the West of England Mayoral Election final were released and Labour symbolically won Jacob Rees-Mogg’s home Council of Bath and North East Somerset!

Also to note; the Shropshire town of Oswestry probably now has the Greenist Council across the land, with the Greens Winning 12 out of the 18 seats on Oswestry Town Council!

That must be the party’s first Outright Majority anywhere?


”To have 12 of 18 seats possibly makes us the greenest council in the country.

It’s a huge vote of confidence from the people of Oswestry and now we have got to deliver, and we understand that.”
 
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Meanwhile - and in the week of the Chesham and Amersham By-Election on Thursday, we in Wolverhampton are making the headlines: as a Labour Councillor; 40 days since May 6th and a Re-Election, as defected to the Conservatives...

Councillor Gurmukh "Mak" Singh, who has represented the Spring Vale ward for five years, said he joined the Labour Party due to it representing "the ordinary person".

But now he said the "values and beliefs" which led him to join had "faded away" from the party as he criticised the leadership of Keir Starmer.

It is the second time a Labour councillor has defected to the Tories in the city in recent years after Payal Bedi-Chadha, who has since stepped down, did so in 2019.
 

takno

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Meanwhile - and in the week of the Chesham and Amersham By-Election on Thursday, we in Wolverhampton are making the headlines: as a Labour Councillor; 40 days since May 6th and a Re-Election, as defected to the Conservatives...
I can't believe the Labour party has changed so much a month and a half. I have a tiny suspicion that the councillor concerned might just be a shameless unprincipled opportunist.
 
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I can't believe the Labour party has changed so much a month and a half. I have a tiny suspicion that the councillor concerned might just be a shameless unprincipled opportunist.

Most certainly so - both my Labour colleagues and many members of the public are livid!
 

507021

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I think any defections should result in a mandatory by-election, paid for by the defecting politician.

Out of interest, does anyone know if any candidates who've gone from Labour to Tory (or vice versa) have retained their seat at the subsequent election?

Most certainly so - both my Labour colleagues and many members of the public are livid!

I'm not surprised, I would be too.
 

Gloster

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I think any defections should result in a mandatory by-election, paid for by the defecting politician.

Out of interest, does anyone know if any candidates who've gone from Labour to Tory (or vice versa) have retained their seat at the subsequent election?

My feeling has long been that an MP who joins another established party should have to face a by-election, but if they become an independent that should not be required. If you join another party, you are bound by the manifesto and policies of that party, which probably differ from those you were elected on. If you are an independent you can continue to support your old party, differing only over those matters that caused you to defect. Leaving your party already risks bringing your career to a close, but if you are likely to be booted straight out of the Commons, you put too much power in the hands of the Whips and we are likely to end with a house full of MPs who are even less likely to speak or vote out of order.

A quick skim through Mr Wikipedia‘s renowned reference work suggests that no Conservative or Labour MP has defected to the other party and retained the same seat. Some have defected and been re-elected at the next election in another seat, most recently Shaun Woodward in 1999. Two Conservatives left to join UKIP in 2014, were re-elected in the same seat in by-election and one was re-elected in the 2015 election. (This was only a quick look and it is possible that somebody went from one party to the other via a period as an independent.)
 

507021

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My feeling has long been that an MP who joins another established party should have to face a by-election, but if they become an independent that should not be required. If you join another party, you are bound by the manifesto and policies of that party, which probably differ from those you were elected on. If you are an independent you can continue to support your old party, differing only over those matters that caused you to defect. Leaving your party already risks bringing your career to a close, but if you are likely to be booted straight out of the Commons, you put too much power in the hands of the Whips and we are likely to end with a house full of MPs who are even less likely to speak or vote out of order.

Completely agree.

A quick skim through Mr Wikipedia‘s renowned reference work suggests that no Conservative or Labour MP has defected to the other party and retained the same seat. Some have defected and been re-elected at the next election in another seat, most recently Shaun Woodward in 1999. Two Conservatives left to join UKIP in 2014, were re-elected in the same seat in by-election and one was re-elected in the 2015 election. (This was only a quick look and it is possible that somebody went from one party to the other via a period as an independent.)

Interesting, thanks for that.
 

DynamicSpirit

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I think any defections should result in a mandatory by-election, paid for by the defecting politician.

I can see an argument for a mandatory by-election (I'm unsure about that one as I can see arguments on both sides), but making the defecting politician pay for it would be a terrible idea. The cost of an election would bankrupt most people earning an ordinary salary, and the result would be that an elected person who has become disillusioned with his/her own party and wants to defect would be for all practical purposes forced to remain representing their current party even if that runs completely against their conscience.
 

507021

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I can see an argument for a mandatory by-election (I'm unsure about that one as I can see arguments on both sides)

The electorate in Spring Vale ward voted for the councillor in question as a Labour candidate, so I think they should be allowed to decide whether they wish for him to continue in his role with the Tories or elect another Labour candidate.

but making the defecting politician pay for it would be a terrible idea.

In hindsight, you're right, but on the flip side why should the taxpayer pay for it?
 
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The people of Chesham and Amersham goes to the polls today; to choose a new Member of Parliament to replace the late and much respected Dame Cheryl Gillian, who passed away from Cancer in April.

And there is a small sense, that a big shock could be on the cards!


Internal party polling shows the Lib Dems are fast closing on the Conservatives in the Chesham and Amershan by-election race, with one party analyst “confident” they can claim an upset victory.

Liberal Democrat polling figures, seen by City A.M., put the party on 41 per cent and the Conservatives on 45 per cent just days before the 17 June by-election in the usually safe Tory seat.
 

Typhoon

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The people of Chesham and Amersham goes to the polls today; to choose a new Member of Parliament to replace the late and much respected Dame Cheryl Gillian, who passed away from Cancer in April.

And there is a small sense, that a big shock could be on the cards!

Has Boris been there? If not, it probably is neck and neck.

(Does HS2 still resonate with voters there, she gained a lot of personal votes through her opposition, I believe.)
 

jfollows

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(Does HS2 still resonate with voters there, she gained a lot of personal votes through her opposition, I believe.)
HS2 is one of the reasons given by various media reports for the poor Conservative showing in the opinion polls leading up to the by-election.

EDIT There is a report by City AM (https://www.cityam.com/exclusive-po...d-tories-in-chesham-and-amersham-by-election/) that an internal LibDem poll shows Conservatives on 45% and LibDem on 41%. This represents a swing of 12.5% to the LibDems from the last election I think, whereas a swing of 14.5% is required for the Conservatives to lose.
 
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birchesgreen

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Very interesting indeed if the Liberals do win (though i suspect the Tories will hold on), i suspect the party bigwigs and grandees will start to get a bit fidgety.
 
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Very interesting indeed if the Liberals do win (though i suspect the Tories will hold on), i suspect the party bigwigs and grandees will start to get a bit fidgety.

And on a SWING OF MORE THAN 25%: a Conservative Majority of more than 15,000 - has GONE to a Liberal Democrat Majority of more than 8,000!

Labour and the Greens lose there deposits, thanks to another massive tactical vote, with the latter ending 3rd.
 

birchesgreen

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Very interesting indeed. Lets see if the breaching of the Blue Wall gets as much press coverage and media sneering as the Red one.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Very interesting indeed. Lets see if the breaching of the Blue Wall gets as much press coverage and media sneering as the Red one.

I don't recall much sneering at the time - just the media, on the whole, correctly reporting a very significant by-election result.

But... why wonder? A couple of mouse clicks will tell you that - of the more Tory-inclined papers - both the Telegraph and the Times have the LibDem byelection gain as their top story - devoting a huge amount of space on their home pages to it. The Mail - which in my experience doesn't normally tend to give such prominence to Westminster stuff - has it as its 2nd story (after something non-political). Only the Express (also not really a paper for Westminster stories) seems to not be giving it much coverage.
 
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