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Northern Overcrowding

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Bletchleyite

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Most are reinstated. The downside of reinstatement I guess, is that temporarily strengthened services will revert to shorter formations.

If Covid has changed one thing, it is the dramatic shift towards the leisure market. Problem is, you can't have trains just for Saturdays and Sundays - it used to happen in the good old days of British Rail - coaches would sit in yards during the week and a freight only engine would haul them around at weekends - much to the delight of enthusiasts but, as a model for capacity, it worked.

Yet down South there is a vast quantity of rolling stock that is sat around in sidings only to do a couple of trips in the morning and a couple in the evening, for season ticket holders who typically pay, per day, about the same as an off peak day return and sometimes less. I can't remember if HS2 have now dug it up, but you could see some of it sat on Camden Bank every day.

So what gives?

Edit: one thing that did give was the political issue surrounding Pacers. They could have been kept longer, used only coupled to a PRM TSI compliant unit, but that was too political. Better a Pacer than being left behind.
 
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M1544

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Yesterday there was a single 2 car 195 on one of the calder valley Leeds Bradford Manchester circuit, was full and standing, needs a minimum of 3 cars on Calder Valley on Saturdays with the amount of shoppers and general leisure travel.
 

47434

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Yet down South there is a vast quantity of rolling stock that is sat around in sidings only to do a couple of trips in the morning and a couple in the evening, for season ticket holders who typically pay, per day, about the same as an off peak day return and sometimes less. I can't remember if HS2 have now dug it up, but you could see some of it sat on Camden Bank every day.

So what gives?

Edit: one thing that did give was the political issue surrounding Pacers. They could have been kept longer, used only coupled to a PRM TSI compliant unit, but that was too political. Better a Pacer than being left behind.
A very fair point. The Pacers were incredibly reliable but hugely berated by the media - but, they gave capacity, which on days like yesterday would have been invaluable. Of course it runs deeper in that they would still be leased at commercial rates and who then funds that to the ROSCO who demands their pound of flesh?
 

evergreenadam

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Yet down South there is a vast quantity of rolling stock that is sat around in sidings only to do a couple of trips in the morning and a couple in the evening, for season ticket holders who typically pay, per day, about the same as an off peak day return and sometimes less. I can't remember if HS2 have now dug it up, but you could see some of it sat on Camden Bank every day.

So what gives?

Edit: one thing that did give was the political issue surrounding Pacers. They could have been kept longer, used only coupled to a PRM TSI compliant unit, but that was too political. Better a Pacer than being left behind.
And some of that could’ve been utilised if only there more miles of electrified track in the north. The 365s have been sent to scrap due to lack of any takers despite having a few more years left in them.
 

Andyh82

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The 2 car 195s should never have been built. Maybe as part of last week’s announcement the government could have announced so more carriages for the 195s as a sop to the north
 

Kite159

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"Yesterday there was a single 2 car 195 on one of the calder valley Leeds Bradford Manchester circuit, was full and standing, needs a minimum of 3 cars on Calder Valley on Saturdays with the amount of shoppers and general leisure travel."

I had something similar a couple Saturdays back when a Chester - Leeds service was a 2 coach unit, pretty much full & standing when it reached Todmorden, and it only got worse the closer it got to Leeds.

I do feel sorry for the guards who has to try and fight their way through the crowding to do the doors due to the poor design, especially when you get Halifax's Island platform. [Hopefully an issue which might have been resolved for the 196/197s?]
 

Peterthegreat

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A very fair point. The Pacers were incredibly reliable but hugely berated by the media - but, they gave capacity, which on days like yesterday would have been invaluable. Of course it runs deeper in that they would still be leased at commercial rates and who then funds that to the ROSCO who demands their pound of flesh?
I suspect Northern don't have anywhere near enough units to operate a full (pre-Covid) service. Many diesel routes in Yorkshire are running at around 50% of normal.
 

td97

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The Arriva Rail North franchise was to introduce 18 additional diesel units by 2022. Clearly they have not materialised, however 3 extra 195s were added to the original order (to make up for Windermere DMU operation rather than a nicety from the DfT).

 

61653 HTAFC

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It is very unusual for Newcastle and Sunderland to be at home on the same day but it happens with the London teams every week.
Because there are more than two London teams... luckily, London also has more coppers, not that you'd know unless there's a protest on.
 

Twingo37175

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Is this a good time to point out that on 04/12/2021 they are both at home again, in the middle of Xmas fairs and Xmas shoppers.... All football rivalry aside, I was of the opinion that the football computer kept various teams on opposite home/away fixtures (be it the Merseyside clubs, Manchester, Birmingham, Sheffield and North London etc etc). Speaking as a Sheffield Wednesday fan, Sunderland are probably the best supported side in league 1 - hence I would have thought still a reason to keep the clubs away.
 

evergreenadam

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The 2 car 195s should never have been built. Maybe as part of last week’s announcement the government could have announced so more carriages for the 195s as a sop to the north

I did wonder at the time whether the two car units would prove to be a mistake in terms of insufficient capacity. However Patrick McCloughlin had to go against the official written advice of his Permanent Secretary to get the Pacers replaced as the business case didn’t add up, so three car replacement units would probably have been pushing it.

Three car units would have been awkward operationally anyway as so many platforms are limited to four cars, so multiples of two car units are preferable and make more efficient use of limited paths into the big cities.

I wasn’t aware that Northern were waiting on 18 more two car units, they would certainly make a difference, not sure why they have not been ordered. Agree that the IRR is like promising jam tomorrow when you don’t have the rolling stock to provide sufficient capacity right now.
 

Pit_buzzer

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I think the outstanding 18 two car units are being covered by the EMR 156s. They were never specified as new units and were expected to be more 170s but that hasn't happened.
 

CaptainHaddock

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Who's responsibility is it to plan and add the extra services ? Are the local teams going to pay for additional pathways ? are the TOCs expected to check all home fixtures, plan and pay for additional services ?

Not only that. Which level of football should be catered for ? Premiership or down as far as Vanarama National League North ?

Interestingly Northern ran a football special on the Cumbrian Coast a couple of weeks ago when Barrow played at Carlisle; I believe it was formed of 2x156 units.

As for the OP's point, I think Northern are being blamed a little unfairly as I would imagine most Newcastle or Sunderland fans using public transport would travel to the game by Metro rather than Northern's very limited service between the two. In general there would only be a good case for putting on extra trains if it was a local derby - ie if Newcastle and Sunderland were playing each other rather than both being at home on the same day.

I think the Football League's fixtures computer is having a bit of a meltdown as both Sheffield teams are at home next weekend which is very unusual for league games. Perhaps wisely the United match has been switched to the Sunday.
 
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spyinthesky

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Because there are more than two London teams... luckily, London also has more coppers, not that you'd know unless there's a protest on.
The fixtures start with the Premier league then it’s down to the EFL to fit into that model. As only the PL and championship have to also look at International commitments the breaking down of the season is done in 5 sets and teams are paired for home and away fixtures.
The fixtures are made then poured over for further conflicts then onto championship, L1 and so on. I guess the Newcastle/Sunderland games were at such a point that changing something here would have had knock on effects elsewhere. Moving one of the games by a day was also difficult due to Int’l break and subsequent cup/midweek games.
 

61653 HTAFC

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And yet Northern are still sending 153's off lease.
Not a problem when there's a bunch of far superior (and PRM compliant) 156s coming available soon. Just a shame that even if nobody else wants them, if Northern say they need 8 the DfT might fund 5 if they're feeling generous.
 

jkkne

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Slightly off topic but I’m surprised they have Sunderland and Newcastle at home on the same day, don’t they coordinate these things? I know for example slightly further south Leeds and Huddersfield are never at home on the same day despite them sometimes (such as now) being in different leagues

It's the 3rd time this season they've played at home at the same timeand there's been similar issues each time. Locally within Tyne and Wear the abject performance and service cancellations on the metro won't have helped either.

When Sunderland were relegated to League One, Northumbria Police withdrew their objections to the Teams playing at home on the same day as naturally Sunderland's attendance is lower and the number of visiting fans is lower so it became manageable from a match control point of view. It'll likely change if Sunderland are promoted.

I don't believe things like infrastructure and transport are considered. Both have played on New Years Day where is no public transport in the region.
 

yorksrob

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Not a problem when there's a bunch of far superior (and PRM compliant) 156s coming available soon. Just a shame that even if nobody else wants them, if Northern say they need 8 the DfT might fund 5 if they're feeling generous.

If there are twenty missing planned units that were supposed to run Northern services, we'll need more than five or eight 156's !
 

Bletchleyite

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Not a problem when there's a bunch of far superior (and PRM compliant) 156s coming available soon. Just a shame that even if nobody else wants them, if Northern say they need 8 the DfT might fund 5 if they're feeling generous.

This is caused by the folly of leasing. If BR was still going, the 15x would be long since paid off and would cost zero to retain other than maintenance (this is why some TOCs have actually purchased rolling stock, e.g. the First-owned HST power cars). The idea that TOCs would have to pay for the use of fully-paid-off rolling stock was one of the greatest follies of privatisation.

Perhaps this could be part-reversed by the Government purchasing all the 15x and making them available for free.
 

61653 HTAFC

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This is caused by the folly of leasing. If BR was still going, the 15x would be long since paid off and would cost zero to retain other than maintenance (this is why some TOCs have actually purchased rolling stock, e.g. the First-owned HST power cars). The idea that TOCs would have to pay for the use of fully-paid-off rolling stock was one of the greatest follies of privatisation.

Perhaps this could be part-reversed by the Government purchasing all the 15x and making them available for free.
It started before privatisation. Sprinterisation replaced every 2 heritage DMU or LHCS vehicles with 1 Sprinter vehicle (or something along those lines). I agree that the utterly ludicrous Leaseco system is at fault in this instance. If BR era stock had remained in the ownership of the state, it would be fully amortised by now- meaning the regions wouldn't have to scrap for every spare Sprinter car.

Not sure I'd trust the current government with the 15x stock though- look at what happened with the 365s!

If there are twenty missing planned units that were supposed to run Northern services, we'll need more than five or eight 156's !
The figures I used were hypothetical, but my point was that outside of the intercity and former NSE operations, the railway is expected to "do more with less" to paraphrase season 5 of The Wire.
 

Anvil1984

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As for the OP's point, I think Northern are being blamed a little unfairly as I would imagine most Newcastle or Sunderland fans using public transport would travel to the game by Metro rather than Northern's very limited service between the two. In general there would only be a good case for putting on extra trains if it was a local derby - ie if Newcastle and Sunderland were playing each other rather than both being at home on the same day.

Certain trains along the Durham Coast line on a Saturday morning (0930,1030,1130 from Middlesbrough) are full and standing and have been for a number for years even when non Matchdays are considered and even before Horden was built.
It’s been mentioned not just on this thread but others that fans would travel to the games by Metro but places like Hartlepool and Seaham see large footfall on a Saturday and passengers have started using Seaton Carew as a substitute station for Hartlepool. This isn’t just for football but for drinking in Newcastle or shopping at Metrocentre. On football weekends it’s chaotic and not unknown for passengers to be left behind as far south as Hartlepool.

The problem seems is that Mondays to Fridays aren’t as busy as other areas of the Northern network so less units are placed in the area
 

xotGD

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I must remind myself that 'the modern railway' isn't there to cater for the needs of passengers.
 

tbtc

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It's a tricky one (despite some of the predictably simplistic comments on here)

Firstly, the Heaton area operations don't have many peak extras on weekdays so there's not a lot of spare DMUs sat idle at weekends (even accounting for the fact that some units are scheduled to have maintenance/ exams at weekends)

Secondly, the demand can fluctuate a lot. Weekday rush hours are generally busy but at least fairly dependable - whereas demand for a football game can be significantly affected by things like the previous results. A win in midweek might mean more supporters, but that's not guaranteed, and not a lot of time for a TOC to respond dynamically to predicted flows.

And not just the home team's result, but the away team too (were Brentford/ Ipswich/ Milwall buoyed by a win the previous week? Will that affect the numbers heading north?). Demand from home fans might be easy/simple (since they'll generally do the same for each home game), but where are the away fans coming from/via? Would Milwall fans heading to the Riverside change at York onto a Middlesbrough service or at Darlington onto the Saltburn stopper? If they are unfamiliar with the local train services it might be hard to second guess them.

Thirdly, which service(s) do you strengthen? For example, on the Durham Coast, you have hourly services, e.g.

12:31 - Middlesbrurgh
13:01 - Hartlepool
13:30 - Sunderland
13:53 - Newcastle

...is that the service that you'd strengthen? Or would that be too late for people heading to Newcastle, so you strengthen the one an hour earlier? But that might be too early for Sunderland-bound passengers? Whilst a lot of passengers might be taking the first train home after the match, some of the people heading to Sunderland/ Newcastle are going to be going for a few drinks first, some will be wanting to get to the ground in plenty of time, so there's not always one obvious service to strengthen.

Forgive me, I don't know if one game was lunchtime or half past five or whatever in this instance, but that causes other problems (e.g. do you focus on a Durham Coast service for the Newcastle match or the Sunderland match, since one extra unit can't do both

Will a match be on TV, which would dampen demand for fans?

Then, there's the problem that, the one service you strengthened to get people to the match might be out at Nunthorpe/ Hexham (etc) when people are heading home from the match (unless you want the complication of shunting moves to leave a unit somewhere that it can be picked up to strengthen the post-match service, which means more complication than just doubling up one diagram)

Given the extra revenue at stake, is it worth scheduling some DMUs to come up from Neville Hill early on a Saturday morning to strengthen services in the north east? Or will the cost of arranging that path and staffing it etc dwarf the ticket revenue, given it's just one journey you are providing the additional capacity on?

And then you've got to consider doing this on several weekends, when the factors will have changed and changed again (you might have hundreds of fans on the 13:01 one week but a few bad results or a new signing could significantly affect that next month)

Speaking as a Sheffield Wednesday fan

I think the Football League's fixtures computer is having a bit of a meltdown as both Sheffield teams are at home next weekend which is very unusual for league games. Perhaps wisely the United match has been switched to the Sunday.

I don't know why both Sheffield teams are at home next weekend, but I do know that the recent FA Cup tie between Wednesday and Plymouth had to take place on the Sunday lunchtime as United were already playing at home that weekend (so there weren't two games in Sheffield on the same day) - this meant Plymouth fans having to set off for Yorkshire before seven o'clock on a Sunday morning, which won't have gone down well (but obviously the luck of the draw in the FA Cup means you can't predict who'll be at home on a given weekend)

I think the outstanding 18 two car units are being covered by the EMR 156s. They were never specified as new units and were expected to be more 170s but that hasn't happened.

Well, if ScotRail are going to make those big cuts to services then maybe some more 170s will head south

(hurrah for the Green Party in coalition, eh?)

It started before privatisation. Sprinterisation replaced every 2 heritage DMU or LHCS vehicles with 1 Sprinter vehicle (or something along those lines)

True - Sprinterisation slashed the number of "spares" - with the subsequent chopping of most 155s into single coach 153s stretching things further - so there was precious little slack in the system even before the era of ROSCOs and privatisation

It's been a long time since we had

the railway is expected to "do more with less" to paraphrase season 5 of The Wire.

And to continue the talk of "The Wire" and football, I saw on Twitter this week that Isiah Whitlock seems to be a Stenhousemuir fan

I must remind myself that 'the modern railway' isn't there to cater for the needs of passengers.

I appreciate that glib comments would always do well if we ever did have a "like" button, but it's a much more complicated than that - which services do you strengthen? What spare stock to you run it with, given that the DMUs needed to meet Saturday diagrams are a fairly similar number to the DMUs needed to meet weekday peak services? How many spare DMUs do you propose to keep at Heaton, for the rare occasions that all the main teams are playing on the same day?
 

cuccir

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I believe this wasn't the absolute first time that Sunderland, Newcastle, Middlesbrough and Hartelpool were at home at the same day and the same time, although it is new to this season - on 28th August they played Wycombe, Southampton, Blackburn and Carlisle respectively. I understand that in particular Northumbria Police, with Sunderland now playing at a slightly lower level, see the danger as reduced: there are fewer travelling fans, fewer rivalries between travelling clubs, and less intensity to the Newcastle/Sunderland rivlary. Hartlepool and Middlesbrough are obviously a different police force who can probably manage those two smaller clubs, and the Carlisle fans in August would have been self-contained, not interacting with the others coming up from the south.

Looking at the fixtures last weekend, none of the away teams were particualrly huge (though Ipswich would bring more than most League One clubs I'd have thought) and in particular the 'lower' teams were all playing opposition who do not bring many fans on the rail: Forest Green, Guiseley, Glocuester and Gainsborough really do not stand out as a set of clubs who'd bring a lot, though I guess any Gloucester and Froest Green fans may have shared services. Spennymoor v Gateshead would not really affect rail in any way, and any who did do Newcastle to Durham for it would have been travelling in the opposite direction to other fans.

So I suspect that the combination of fixtures was felt to be acceptable by police, but perhaps in terms of travel this does ignore how limited the proivsion is on the Durham Coast Line, where there is a lack of capacity, infrequent service and slow line. But really that's just more a case of a very poorly served line as much as anything else!

Interestingly Northern ran a football special on the Cumbrian Coast a couple of weeks ago when Barrow played at Carlisle; I believe it was formed of 2x156 units.

Due to the fact that this was the first Cumbrian derby with fans in decades - and arguably the first ever given that Cumbria didn't exist when the two were last in the same league - the away following was around 1500 I think, which is comparable to a smaller travelling Premier League crowd. I know that Cumbria Police were invovled in encouraging that this service happen, and I'm sure life was easier for all getting as many as those travelling onto one train as they could! I also recall LNER running a specical in 2017 when South Shields and York were both playing in London as part of the FA Trophy/FA Vase non-league finals day, so I think services will be provided for any level of football if the demand was there.
 
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