Why? Well for starters it take more than 15mins to get to Welywn GC from Blackfrairs. Min Turn around is about 5mins... Do the math.
As for that, daily im on the core and 9.9/10 its a 12 car on a booked 12 car. 8 cars are rare for 12
It may be the case that 8 vice 12 is rarer *now*, but it wasn’t before March 2020. At the moment there’s the luxury of a number of 12-car peak services not running, in particular many of those to Littlehampton or East Grinstead.
As regards Welwyn, it takes 15 mins to get from Belle Isle to Blackfriars. With a roughly 15 minute turnaround booked in the normal timetable, this puts each train onto its opposing path the other side of the river.
Meanwhile, here is the math:
As per the abortive May 2020 timetable:
6x Blackfriars - Sevenoaks 700/0 diagrams, TB427, TB430, TB433, TB434, TB435, TB443.
11x GN 700/0 diagrams, TB445, TB446, TB447, TB448, TB449, TB450, TB451, TB452, TB453, TB454, TB455.
Of the 11x GN diagrams, TB447 and TB454 stabled midday at Hornsey, TB452 stabled midday at Welwyn CS. This makes the total number of units for the Welwyn peak extras equal 3x.
This gives 6x units for Blackfriars - Sevenoaks, 3x units for King's Cross - Welwyn Garden City, and 8x units for King's Cross - Cambridge. Total - 17x.
If we now take a typical pair of Welwyn Garden City - King's Cross and Blackfriars - Sevenoaks services (helpfully they even keep a similar reporting number either side of the Thames):
2Y05 0532 Welwyn Garden City - King's Cross (arr 0606)
9Y05 0616 Blackfriars - Sevenoaks (arr 0727)
9Y10 0745 Sevenoaks - Blackfriars (arr 0859)
2Y10 0906 King's Cross - Welwyn Garden City (arr 0942)
This gives a complete Welwyn Garden City - Sevenoaks - Welwyn Garden City rounder of 4 hrs 30 mins including turnrounds.
As can be seen, were the service to be all day then the 0942 arrival would then form a hypothetical 1002 Welwyn Garden City - Sevenoaks. To spell it out:
0532 - diagram 1
0602 - diagram 2
0632 - diagram 3
0702 - diagram 4
0732 - diagram 5
0802 - diagram 6
0832 - diagram 7
0902 - diagram 8
0932 - diagram 9
1002 - diagram 1 ... and so on.
Mysteriously enough, this adds up to 9x diagrams, the same as 3x King's Cross - Welwyn Garden City + 6x Blackfriars - Sevenoaks.
Meanwhile, to confirm the remaining King's Cross - Cambridge service makes 8x units:
2C20 1121 King's Cross - Cambridge (arr 1254)
2C37 1327 Cambridge - King's Cross (arr 1450)- forms 2C36 1521 King's Cross - Cambridge
1121 - diagram 1
1151 - diagram 2
1221 - diagram 3
1251 - diagram 4
1321 - diagram 5
1351 - diagram 6
1421 - diagram 7
1451 - diagram 8
1521 - diagram 1 ... and so on..
As stated above, this adds up to 8x diagrams.
Add together 9x for Welwyn Garden City-Sevenoaks and 8x for King's Cross-Cambridge, and this totals up to...
Total - 17x; the same total as 6x Welwyn Garden City - Sevenoaks, 8x King's Cross - Cambridge and 3x King's Cross - Welwyn Garden City.
For interest, in the same timetable, 55/60 700/0 were diagrammed running duties each day, versus 51/55 700/1. Two interesting take-aways from that, firstly the 700/1s have a slightly more demanding utilisation, and secondly where are any units for Maidstone going to come from?