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Russia invades Ukraine

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Wilts Wanderer

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One thing that I‘ve been wondering is the end-game scenario whereby Russia manages to seize Donetsk and Luhansk for sufficiently long enough that Putin is able to declare them a part of Russia (presumably backed up with some sort of referendum result, real or pretend), but not militarily strong enough to defend them from Ukraine re-invading and seizing them back.

Given Putin has made it clear that any attack on what he sees as ‘Russia’ will result in a nuclear response, what should the West’s approach be in supporting / dissuading Ukraine from this course of action? Morally they have a legitimate claim to regaining these territories, but is it sensible from an overall strategic point of view?
 

najaB

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Given Putin has made it clear that any attack on what he sees as ‘Russia’ will result in a nuclear response, what should the West’s approach be in supporting / dissuading Ukraine from this course of action?
The Russian attitude towards Ukraine has always been that they're Russian-enough to act as a buffer for attacks on 'real' Russia. The very name 'Ukraine' is originates from 'The Borderlands'.
 

DustyBin

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I suspect he knows he hasn't got the military capability to threaten the two countries yet, what with many of his troops busy demolishing Ukraine still.

Once he's finished messing about in Ukraine, I suspect we will start to see an increased military presence on Finland's border and over in Kaliningrad.

Whatever he does it will be nothing more than posturing, largely for domestic consumption. He doesn’t have the military capability to threaten Finland and/or Sweden, regardless of what happens in Ukraine (where his capability continues to be depleted by the day).

It's a big stray from the usual Russian mock-anger and outright lies. All is not well in the Putin household.

I was quite taken aback actually, as you say it’s not his usual style at all. Perhaps he realises that he’s already bitten off more than he can chew, and is now very keen to avoid any kind of escalation?
 

TheEdge

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Putin has made an announcement regarding Finland and Sweden applying for NATO membership. He actually appears to be taking it rather well, all very measured and dare I say it, sensible!

Perhaps he's optimistic Turkey might scupper the whole thing.
 

DustyBin

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Well the Soviet Union did suggest it join NATO in the early 50s...

I may be imagining this, but I seem to recall Russia talking about it more recently under Putin. Again, IIRC (which I may not!) he also spoke about EU membership.

Looks to be going that way.

The Turkish president is adamant that he'll veto the decision.

Erdogan almost certainly sees this as an opportunity to gain leverage in other areas; I don’t think he will actually veto it.
 

Cloud Strife

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One thing that I‘ve been wondering is the end-game scenario whereby Russia manages to seize Donetsk and Luhansk for sufficiently long enough that Putin is able to declare them a part of Russia (presumably backed up with some sort of referendum result, real or pretend), but not militarily strong enough to defend them from Ukraine re-invading and seizing them back.

This is one of the stranger things at the moment. Incorporating the LPR and DPR into Russia would be a no brainer right now, but they seem desperate to avoid doing just that. I just cannot work out what the Russian goal is here, they keep reducing their territorial aims every couple of weeks, and the latest numbers seem to paint a terrible picture for Russia. Could it be that they know that defending the LPR and DPR is a lost cause, and so they don't want to admit that they've lost Russian territory?

Given Putin has made it clear that any attack on what he sees as ‘Russia’ will result in a nuclear response, what should the West’s approach be in supporting / dissuading Ukraine from this course of action? Morally they have a legitimate claim to regaining these territories, but is it sensible from an overall strategic point of view?

To be honest, with the way things are going, I suspect that we're going to see another Republika Srpska Krajina situation, i.e. that the military of the parastate simply vanishes. That's even assuming that there's much of the DPR army left, given that they've been taking huge losses.

On related news, Hungary apparently is blocking an oil embargo in the EU. I really do think it's time for the EU to cut off the tap to Orban rather than engaging him for one minute more.
 

TheEdge

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Erdogan almost certainly sees this as an opportunity to gain leverage in other areas; I don’t think he will actually veto it.

He'll want his F-35 order back and possibly get an embargo lifted.

This is one of the stranger things at the moment. Incorporating the LPR and DPR into Russia would be a no brainer right now, but they seem desperate to avoid doing just that. I just cannot work out what the Russian goal is here, they keep reducing their territorial aims every couple of weeks, and the latest numbers seem to paint a terrible picture for Russia. Could it be that they know that defending the LPR and DPR is a lost cause, and so they don't want to admit that they've lost Russian territory?

The goal for Russia was clearly always that the glorious Red Army would march in Kiev in 48 hours, kick seven shades of faeces out of the Nazi-Jew Zelensky, the VDV would fly his freshly severed head back to the Kremlin and Russia be welcomed as liberators by the Ukrainians. That just hasn't happened at all.

Now they just seem to be backpedaling in an attempt to get some sort of palatable victory and failing at that too. They probably know they can't hold a land bridge between Crimea and Russia because Ukraine just won't let them and as you say the LPR and DPR probably have no chance of being self supporting anymore. There must be some awareness that if they try and hold any Ukrainian territory they will be fighting a western armed insurgency.

That's even assuming that there's much of the DPR army left, given that they've been taking huge losses.

That's assuming there even was a significant DPR army anyway and it wasn't just Russian forces who are now just fighting under their true flag.
 

DustyBin

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He'll want his F-35 order back and possibly get an embargo lifted.

I was thinking F-35s as well. He’s generally not in the good books with the US in particular, so if he feels that his contributions in Ukraine haven’t been “rewarded” it’s no surprise that he’s taking a more direct approach.
 

Giugiaro

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Again, IIRC (which I may not!) he also spoke about EU membership.

Spoken or not, Russia becoming a future member state of the EU was a possibility back in the early 2000s when the Euro was introduced as a physical currency.

I have, from that year, a Portuguese book about the Euro that mentions just that!
 

DustyBin

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Spoken or not, Russia becoming a future member state of the EU was a possibility back in the early 2000s when the Euro was introduced as a physical currency.

I have, from that year, a Portuguese book about the Euro that mentions just that!

Thanks, at least I wasn’t imagining it!

Integrating Russia into the EU would have been challenging to say the least and I honestly don’t know how it would have played out. On the one hand it may have prevented some of their more extreme behaviour (such as invading their neighbours!), but at the same time how would the EU have dealt with such a corrupt and undemocratic regime? I know there are EU member states who aren’t exactly perfect in this regard, but Russia is on a whole different level. I’m struggling to see how they’d have been anything other than disruptive and a general nuisance to be honest, as fascinating as it would have been.
 

AlterEgo

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Thanks, at least I wasn’t imagining it!

Integrating Russia into the EU would have been challenging to say the least and I honestly don’t know how it would have played out. On the one hand it may have prevented some of their more extreme behaviour (such as invading their neighbours!), but at the same time how would the EU have dealt with such a corrupt and undemocratic regime? I know there are EU member states who aren’t exactly perfect in this regard, but Russia is on a whole different level. I’m struggling to see how they’d have been anything other than disruptive and a general nuisance to be honest, as fascinating as it would have been.
The other thing to consider is Putin’s ideological evolution. He was never a good guy, but the degradation of his politics into an ever more insularly aggressive and pathetic man has been quite the watch.

Go back to 2001 and Putin was at Ground Zero in New York as a welcome guest to pay his respects to the victims of Islamic terrorism. He was also sincere about it. It’s like looking at an alternate universe now.
 

Eyersey468

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Didn't Putin's dad work for Stalin? I seem to remember reading somewhere thar Putin was involved with the KGB as well
 
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najaB

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Putin himself was a KGB agent in East Germany in the 1980s.
And, apparently in contradiction of his 'hard man' image, he was actually a mildly-competent desk jockey, rather than a James Bond-esque field agent.
 

coppercapped

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And, apparently in contradiction of his 'hard man' image, he was actually a mildly-competent desk jockey, rather than a James Bond-esque field agent.
The reports I have read in the German media state that he was based in Dresden and was (one of) the link men between the East German Stasi and the KGB. He speaks good German.

Then of course he lost his job as the Wall came down which shows that the collapse of the USSR was the biggest disaster of modern times...
 

gg1

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Then of course he lost his job as the Wall came down which shows that the collapse of the USSR was the biggest disaster of modern times...
I suspect the vast majority of the population of all former Warsaw pact countries plus most ex Soviet states other than Russia would strongly disagree with that statement.
 

najaB

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I suspect the vast majority of the population of all former Warsaw pact countries plus most ex Soviet states other than Russia would strongly disagree with that statement.
I rather think that @coppercapped was suggesting that was Putin's view of events, rather than his own.
 

DustyBin

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The other thing to consider is Putin’s ideological evolution. He was never a good guy, but the degradation of his politics into an ever more insularly aggressive and pathetic man has been quite the watch.

Go back to 2001 and Putin was at Ground Zero in New York as a welcome guest to pay his respects to the victims of Islamic terrorism. He was also sincere about it. It’s like looking at an alternate universe now.

They're both really good points, and this is why, whilst far from being a Putin apologist or sympathiser, I do question if there was more we could have done to prevent Russia going full "rogue state". I'm not saying it would have been easy by any means, but did the West really try with Putin? I honestly don't know. That said, if the same underlying ideological beliefs were always simmering under the surface, perhaps a situation like the current one was inevitable; again it's difficult say.
 

GS250

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They're both really good points, and this is why, whilst far from being a Putin apologist or sympathiser, I do question if there was more we could have done to prevent Russia going full "rogue state". I'm not saying it would have been easy by any means, but did the West really try with Putin? I honestly don't know. That said, if the same underlying ideological beliefs were always simmering under the surface, perhaps a situation like the current one was inevitable; again it's difficult say.

Well....FIFA did give him the World Cup....

And they also gave it to Qatar. Another rogue state.
 

brad465

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Well....FIFA did give him the World Cup....

And they also gave it to Qatar. Another rogue state.
The annexation of Crimea and/or their behaviour in Syria should have ended their right to host that tournament. One of the few things I agreed with Nick Clegg on was his calls to boycott the World cup if it remained in Russia.
 

Cloud Strife

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Another day, and perhaps the biggest piece of news is that the UAF has apparently crossed the Donets river at Staryi Saltiv. If this is true, then it explains why observers are saying that Russia is in deep trouble. Vorchansk is now in play, and if that falls, Russia will lose rail access to one of the most important theatres of war right now - Rubizhne and Severeodonetsk.

It is clear that Russia continues to make small advances, but from what I can gather, they're incurring substantial losses for as little as a couple of hundred meters.
 

AlterEgo

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They're both really good points, and this is why, whilst far from being a Putin apologist or sympathiser, I do question if there was more we could have done to prevent Russia going full "rogue state". I'm not saying it would have been easy by any means, but did the West really try with Putin? I honestly don't know. That said, if the same underlying ideological beliefs were always simmering under the surface, perhaps a situation like the current one was inevitable; again it's difficult say.
There were missed opportunities for sure - the lack of coalescence around the threat of Islamic terror was a lost opportunity (imagine RU and USA agreeing to limited cooperation in breaking up terror cells?). Nonetheless, while the West cannot claim a 100% record in how it has approached Russia since the fall of the USSR, Putin's positions are his own and the degradation of his politics are his mistake, too. It has culminated in a catastrophic escapade for Russia in Ukraine.
 

Cloud Strife

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It has culminated in a catastrophic escapade for Russia in Ukraine.

It is incredibly fascinating to see how this has all turned out. I expected Russia to get involved in a bloodbath before launching a "Seige of Kyiv' that would run for 2-3 years, but I never thought that Russia would be in such a vulnerable position.
 

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