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Russia invades Ukraine

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daodao

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It is clear that Russia continues to make small advances, but from what I can gather, they're incurring substantial losses for as little as a couple of hundred meters.

It is incredibly fascinating to see how this has all turned out. I expected Russia to get involved in a bloodbath before launching a "Seige of Kyiv' that would run for 2-3 years, but I never thought that Russia would be in such a vulnerable position.

What should be frightening Russia right now is that Ukraine hasn't even used the capabilities of their reserves due to a lack of equipment. There's a valid point that Russia doesn't have the forces to actually win this war, and they might even end up overwhelmed in the LDPR as Ukraine will have nothing to lose by taking them back into Ukrainian control.
Are you living in cloud cuckoo land? It is quite clear that by now using overwhelming force, the Russian steamroller will clear the Donbass of Ukrainian forces soon - they have almost completed the task in the Lugansk province. The Russians will then probably focus on occupying the rest of "Novorossiya", i.e. the Black Sea littoral (including Odessa), and linking up with Transdniestria. Their initial mistake was to dissipate their military resources too widely. And don't expect Russia to vacate any of the territories that they originally conquered from the Tatars/Turks in the late 18th century and have now re-occupied or are about to do so. The West may bleat, but the rest of the world will use Nelson's telescope and do business with Russia at the West's expense.
 
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najaB

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It is quite clear that by now using overwhelming force, the Russian steamroller will clear the Donbass of enemy forces soon - they have almost completed the task in the Lugansk province.
The Ukrainian forces have had some setbacks of late, but that's the nature of war.

That Russia has lost as much hardware and as many men as they have for so little actual gain doesn't bode well for their long-term objectives.

As for taking Odessa and the south of Ukraine, good luck is all I can say to that.
 

TheEdge

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Are you living in cloud cuckoo land?

Why, have you got space to take a lodger there?

It is quite clear that by now using overwhelming force, the Russian steamroller will clear the Donbass of enemy forces soon - they have almost completed the task in the Lugansk province. The Russians will then probably focus on occupying the rest of "Novorossiya", i.e. the Black Sea littoral (including Odessa), and linking up with Transdniestria.

So they are going to occupy vast swathes of Ukraine? (remember, Novorossiya isn't a thing and is as legitimate as the UK trying to enforce the New Raj in India). Even if they somehow do how are they going to control it? Maybe, maybe, they could in the Donbass (although it sounds unlikely) but for the rest of it they've got to deal with a Western armed insurgency. The USSR tried that once and it was one of the things that led to the fall of the USSR.

Their initial mistake was to dissipate their military resources too widely.

It WaS aLl a FeInT.

And don't expect Russia to vacate any of the territories that they originally conquered from the Tatars/Turks in the late 18th century and have now re-occupied or are about to do so.

Right lads, lets get the Empire back together. We owned this 200 years ago so its ours. First stop Cape Town! Newsflash, this isn't legitimate.

The West may bleat, but the rest of the world will use Nelson's telescope and do business with Russia at the West's expense.

Ok.
 

LowLevel

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4645A59900000578-5055263-A_male_bear_was_driving_the_steam_roller_in_the_first_edition_of-a-2_...jpg

Inspired by Daodao's love of daft metaphor, like "the Russian Bear" I was delighted to find this image of a bear driving a steam roller. Sadly he isn't wearing a little Soviet hat, but you can't have everything.
 

gg1

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Are you living in cloud cuckoo land?
Why, have you got space to take a lodger there?
I genuinely laughed out loud at that :lol:

The single biggest obstacle which prevents Russia turning this into a long term war of attrition (which realistically is the only way they can defeat Ukraine) is money. Russia has to bear all it's financial costs of the war alone which, which even without the heavy sanctions currently applied would be huge drain on the Russian economy. Ukraine on the other hand is in receipt of effectively unlimited (at least in the short and medium term) military and humanitarian aid.
 

najaB

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Russia has to bear all it's financial costs of the war alone which, which even without the heavy sanctions currently applied would be huge drain on the Russian economy.
To put that into some perspective, the Russian economy (pre-invasion) was slightly smaller than Italy's.
 

gg1

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To put that into some perspective, the Russian economy (pre-invasion) was slightly smaller than Italy's.
Indeed.

Another problem for Russia is how thinly the money is spread. I think it may have been mentioned earlier in this thread, Russia's military budget is broadly similar to Britain's despite having more than 10 times as many combat aircraft, tanks and nukes, 6 times the number of active personnel and 4 times the amount of naval vessels. It's not really surprising the Russian military has performed so poorly.
 
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Annetts key

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To put that into some perspective, the Russian economy (pre-invasion) was slightly smaller than Italy's.
And further, it WAS smaller, and is shrinking, and will continue to shrink.

They are temporarily enjoying higher oil and gas prices, but as the E.U. countries and some other countries that support Ukraine move away from buying Russian coal, oil and gas, the income that Russia gets from these sales will reduce.

The sanctions will also be having an impact. As will the (generally) younger Russian citizens that have recently left the country. Plus for every person that leaves ‘civilian’ life in Russia to fight in the war in Ukraine, that’s someone that can’t work in the Russian economy at home. And if they are injured or are killed in large numbers, that again affects the Russian economy.

I don’t know about now, but in the recent past, Russia was suffering from a deceasing population as the birth rate was below the death rate. A war will definitely make this worse.

Also the advantage that Russia had of having so much military equipment in storage cannot last if their losses are as great as is being speculated about. Russia likely does not currently have the industrial capacity to rapidly manufacture replacement weapons and equipment. And even the capacity that they do have could never match that of the U.S.A., the E.U., the U.K., and other countries.

As long as Ukraine continues to get financial support and weapons, supplies and other support, it’s not as bad for them.

So ultimately, assuming Ukraine continues to be supported, Putin will fail. The question is, how long before Russia gives up (for whatever reason).
 

najaB

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I don’t know about now, but in the recent past, Russia was suffering from a deceasing population as the birth rate was below the death rate. A war will definitely make this worse.
This trend has continued. Russia's demographics don't paint a pretty picture for the future of their economy.
Also the advantage that Russia had of having so much military equipment in storage cannot last if their losses are as great as is being speculated about.
The issue there is that a lot of the equipment 'in storage' hasn't been given the regular preventative maintenance that it should have received. It's doubtful that much of it will ever work again.
 

Cloud Strife

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Are you living in cloud cuckoo land? It is quite clear that by now using overwhelming force, the Russian steamroller will clear the Donbass of Ukrainian forces soon - they have almost completed the task in the Lugansk province. The Russians will then probably focus on occupying the rest of "Novorossiya", i.e. the Black Sea littoral (including Odessa), and linking up with Transdniestria. Their initial mistake was to dissipate their military resources too widely. And don't expect Russia to vacate any of the territories that they originally conquered from the Tatars/Turks in the late 18th century and have now re-occupied or are about to do so. The West may bleat, but the rest of the world will use Nelson's telescope and do business with Russia at the West's expense.

Ignoring the very obvious pro-Russia slant here, the fact that Russia is having to throw the kitchen sink at Ukraine just to try and get them out of Luhansk is a sign of just how badly Russia is doing. They've thrown a huge amount at Severodonetsk, yet it still hasn't fallen. The same pattern is playing out here as elsewhere - Russia throws everything they can at taking a target, and they finally succeed at a huge cost to themselves.

Yes, the next two/three weeks are going to be tough for Ukraine. Yet, what happens once the next tranche of military aid turns up? Russia is now deploying ancient tanks that will be torn apart by Javelins or similar, and we all know that Russia is really struggling to come up with warm bodies to go and fight.

Odesa? Russia is struggling to control Kherson, so what hope do they have of occupying Odesa?

Cloud cuckoo land is believing that a concentrated Russian assault on Severodonetsk and the surrounding areas is somehow indicative of the Russian ability to control more of Ukraine. They are moving forward - yes. But they are doing it at a huge cost, and they're now having to rely on Belarusian military reserves - which are probably quite minimal to begin with, given Belarus and their anti-war stance.
 

ainsworth74

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This trend has continued. Russia's demographics don't paint a pretty picture for the future of their economy.
Nor their long term military capacity. War is a young persons game and the generation currently doing most of the fighting and dying was born in the early 2000s or very late 1990s. Of which there are not very many of them compared to previous cohorts. It bounces back a bit as you go further into the 2000s but still the cohorts are smaller than has historically been the case. But that generation born from around 1995 to 2005ish (i.e. the current and future draftees) is small. The Russian population pyramid makes for interesting viewing:

Russian_population_(demographic)_pyramid_(structure)_on_January,_1st,_2022.png

Source


The issue there is that a lot of the equipment 'in storage' hasn't been given the regular preventative maintenance that it should have received. It's doubtful that much of it will ever work again.
It's also all junk. There was video doing the rounds recently of a train full of T-62s (or T-64s can't recall which it was now) heading westwards. But they're totally un-modernised. Even if they do work, which is a big if, they're the sort of things that these conscripts granddads were probably riding around in in the 70s and haven't been much touched since. Considering the mincemeat that Ukrainian and Western anti-tank weapons have been making of Russians modernised kit it will be even worse in that junk. Heck it's probably so old that some stuff that wasn't useful or effective before suddenly will become effective again!
 

Giugiaro

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They are moving forward - yes. But they are doing it at a huge cost, ...

And then there's the question: If Russia successfully occupies the whole of Nova Russia, then what?

Russia will be broke, half dead and with a steamrolled plot of land. They have destroyed or will destroy everything of any economic worth in Nova Russia.
So we have two options:
  1. Russia keeps the territory but doesn't invest one single rubble in it, essentially keeping scorched land as an expensive prize;
  2. Russia invests heavily in Nova Russia but leaves the rest of the country in the dust, causing more pressure on the Russian people for the level of poverty they WILL face.
Meanwhile, aid for rebuilding and a future EU membership will favour whatever is left of Ukraine (and Moldova, we hope).
It's going to be East and West Berlin all over again.
 

Yew

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Yes, the next two/three weeks are going to be tough for Ukraine. Yet, what happens once the next tranche of military aid turns up? Russia is now deploying ancient tanks that will be torn apart by Javelins or similar, and we all know that Russia is really struggling to come up with warm bodies to go and fight.
I'm currently in Poland, and just saw a T72 in a museum.
 

Strathclyder

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Are you living in cloud cuckoo land?
Why, you setting up a Air BnB there?

It is quite clear that by now using overwhelming force, the Russian steamroller will clear the Donbass of Ukrainian forces soon - they have almost completed the task in the Lugansk province. The Russians will then probably focus on occupying the rest of "Novorossiya", i.e. the Black Sea littoral (including Odessa), and linking up with Transdniestria.
Said 'overwhelming force' is sustaining catastrophic levels of loss for the amount of terrority gained. What was the phrase called? Oh yeah: Pyrrhic Victory. And even if they were able to occupy the rest of Novorossiya (not a thing in the real world FYI) and Odessa, how on earth do you think they'd be able to control them long-term, considering the problems they're having in that respect over in Kherson? Frankly, cloud cuckoo land is believing that Russia concentrating all their resources on an assualt on Severodonetsk is somehow indicative of their ability to control more of Ukraine, especially in light of what we know and have seen reported of their combat performance since 24th February.

And yes, it can't be denied Ukraine is having a tough time of it right now, but such is the way the pendulum of war swings and always has swung. Just wait until the next round of military aid arrives. What then for the literal Cold War-era (at best) tanks Russia are now having to deploy, to say nothing of the glaring lack of fresh recruits - willing or otherwise - to go and fight? And what of their long-term objectives in Ukraine (whatever they may be now, considering how much they've changed since 24th February)?

Their initial mistake was to dissipate their military resources too widely.
'It was all a cunning ruse, I tell you!'

And don't expect Russia to vacate any of the territories that they originally conquered from the Tatars/Turks in the late 18th century and have now re-occupied or are about to do so.
Oh that's right, I totally forgot: territorial claims Russia made over 200 years ago in the region apply as something of a prerequisite for Russia's territorial claims in modern Ukraine in 2022. Silly me.

/sarcasm

The West may bleat, but the rest of the world will use Nelson's telescope and do business with Russia at the West's expense.
Yeah, OK. That isn't as big a 'gotcha!' moment as you seemingly think. Such has been true of conflicts throughout human history, as morally bankrupt as it is in most cases. Why should this conflict be any different in that respect?
 
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brad465

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Sounds like Russia is running out of troops (we already knew of course this could happen, this story just backs it up):


Russia has scrapped its age limit for professional soldiers, paving the way for more civilian experts to be recruited for the Ukraine conflict.
President Vladimir Putin has signed a law enabling people over 40 to enlist for the armed forces. They are expected to be people of normal working age.
Previously the army had age limits of 18-40 years for Russians and 18-30 for foreigners.
Russia is presenting it as a move to recruit more technical specialists.
The new law says specialists are required to operate high-precision weapons and "experience shows that they become such by the age of 40-45". More medics, engineers and communications experts may also be recruited.
Ukrainian and Western military experts say Russia has suffered heavy losses in the war: about 30,000 killed, according to Ukraine, while the UK government estimates the toll at about 15,000. In comparison, Soviet losses in nine years of war in Afghanistan were about 15,000.
Russia gave a total of 1,351 dead on 25 March, which it has not updated.
President Putin has avoided large-scale conscription for what Russia calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine.
But in March Russia's defence ministry admitted that some conscripts were involved in the conflict and some had been taken prisoner by Ukrainian forces. The defence ministry stressed that it was not official policy to send conscripts into battle.
Later, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said that those conscripts drafted into the military this spring would not be sent to any hotspots.
Conscription, also known as the draft, is a centuries-old practice for states to require large numbers of men to serve in the military. Russia's conscription, dating back to tsarist times, obliges men aged 18 to 27 to serve one year in the military. But many get exemptions on medical grounds, or because they are students.

Russia now has more than 400,000 professional "contract" soldiers in its 900,000-strong active armed forces. It can also mobilise about two million reservists, military analysts say.
Ukraine's army is a lot smaller - it has an estimated 200,000 active troops and 900,000 reservists, though it has boosted those numbers through mass mobilisation since Russia invaded on 24 February.
Under its current martial law, Ukraine forbids men aged 18 to 60 from leaving the country, demanding that they stay and fight. So women, children and the elderly form the vast majority of refugees fleeing to neighbouring countries.
Ukraine's military says it is not yet conscripting women, but some can be drafted exceptionally if their skills in medicine, IT or other areas are needed.
Many countries have military conscription, though the rules vary widely. They include Israel, Turkey, Iran, Sweden and Georgia.
The UK and US are among many other countries which have fully professional armies, as well as reservists who can be called up in an emergency. The UK had conscription in both world wars, and the US had the draft during the Vietnam War.
 

TheEdge

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'It was all a cunning ruse, I tell you!'

If you use Reddit then r/noncredibledefense is an absolute goldmine for this kind of smoothbrain thinking and the mental gymnastics involved in trying to prove that the attack on Kyiv failing miserably was all part of the 5D chess game Vlad is playing.
 

swt_passenger

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Sounds like Russia is running out of troops (we already knew of course this could happen, this story just backs it up):

This paragraph:
“The new law says specialists are required to operate high-precision weapons and "experience shows that they become such by the age of 40-45". More medics, engineers and communications experts may also be recruited.”

…makes me wonder how much modern hi tech equipment training the usual recruits actually get. Do they just train most of them as very ordinary infantry?
 

TheEdge

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…makes me wonder how much modern hi tech equipment training the usual recruits actually get. Do they just train most of them as very ordinary infantry?

Soviet doctrine was that equipment should be simple so mostly untrained conscripts could use it without extensive training. And that's fine if the kit you are giving them is designed like that.

But a lot of the equipment you need on the modern battlefield is complex and needs proper training.

*AFTER POST EDIT*

Conscription is a strange beast and its not something modern Britain has ever used so its sometimes looked down on. It can be very powerful as a tool or it can be a meat grinder for 18 year old lads. Some countries use/used conscription more akin to national service and to provide men for their armed services in the event of war. This is similar to Switzerland and Finland for example, they maintain a professional army but in war they have access to a huge trained militia to bolster their numbers from basic conscription. Useful as infantry, useful as home defense but you wouldn't plop them in a Leopard 2 or K9 artillery system and expect them to operate it. Other countries use conscription to form the basis of their infantry across the board. This is what Russia is currently doing. Minimal training and then throwing them on the front line expecting them to perform with whatever equipment they are given or whatever leadership they have. And in that they often underperform.

The Falklands is often given as the textbook example of a professional army vs conscripted army. The Argentinians should have won, there is no way a force as small as what we sent in should have dislodged a defender who had the chance to dig in. But they were poorly led conscripts fighting against a well trained professional force. And they got beaten.
 
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najaB

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“The new law says specialists are required to operate high-precision weapons and "experience shows that they become such by the age of 40-45". More medics, engineers and communications experts may also be recruited.”
So basically they are saying that people who literally grew up with smartphones, tablets, the Internet, etc. are less able to handle modern technology than people who grew up before any of that stuff existed.

Only in Russia!
 

Strathclyder

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If you use Reddit then r/noncredibledefense is an absolute goldmine for this kind of smoothbrain thinking and the mental gymnastics involved in trying to prove that the attack on Kyiv failing miserably was all part of the 5D chess game Vlad is playing.
I do use Reddit, but that sounds like the kind of sub-reddit (or sub-forum for those not familiar with the site) I'd avoid like the plague to spare my sanity. Generally speaking, some of this kind of smooth-brain thinking is pathetically entertaining just for how detached from any form of reality it is, but most of it is yet more proof - as if it were needed - that we're headed for the cliff-edge as a species.

Me, a cynic? Perish the thought!
 

takno

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So basically they are saying that people who literally grew up with smartphones, tablets, the Internet, etc. are less able to handle modern technology than people who grew up before any of that stuff existed.

Only in Russia!
I suspect the over 40s are seen as less likely to say "I'm being sent flipping where now? I can't seem to find the handbrake on this tank. Is this the handbrake? Oh dear me no, that's turned the gun around. How about this one? Whoops, that was the fire button. There was already a big hole in you when you arrived wasn't there General? General?"
 

TheEdge

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I do use Reddit, but that sounds like the kind of sub-reddit (or sub-forum for those not familiar with the site) I'd avoid like the plague to spare my sanity. Generally speaking, some of this kind of smooth-brain thinking is pathetically entertaining just for how detached from any form of reality it is, but most of it is yet more proof - as if it were needed - that we're headed for the cliff-edge as a species

No, no, no, you misunderstand. Its a subreddit which currently is devoted solely to tacking the urine out of all the ridiculous thinking. It is currently one of the funniest places online in my opinion.
 

Strathclyder

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No, no, no, you misunderstand. Its a subreddit which currently is devoted solely to tacking the urine out of all the ridiculous thinking. It is currently one of the funniest places online in my opinion.
Ah, now I getcha. Had my cynic cap well and truly screwed on there lol
 

Cowley

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No, no, no, you misunderstand. Its a subreddit which currently is devoted solely to tacking the urine out of all the ridiculous thinking. It is currently one of the funniest places online in my opinion.

I’m having a look at that later…
 

TheEdge

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So the MOD had confirmed T-62s have moved into Ukraine.

These are 1961 vintage vehicles. These were designed to defeat things like Centurions & Pattons. The Challenger 2 we field today is THREE generations never than the T-62. Suddenly the joke about Ukraine being sent Leopard 1s by Germany isn't so funny, Leopard 1s being 4 years newer.
 

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