Has Crossrail negatively affected other TfL services?

danielcanning · 25 May 2022

The Elizabeth Line opened yesterday to great fanfare, including on this forum. However the rest of TfL is falling apart, long delays and cancellations on tube and bus services etc etc. In my opinion the management should focus on getting existing services up to standard before focusing on Crossrail. Your thoughts?

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Trainbike46 · 25 May 2022

Crossrail has been in the planning for years. Noone would benefit from delaying it further because of issues on other parts of the TfL network (and for some passengers, crossrail opening may improve the situation as it offers an alternative route or reduces overcrowding by removing some passengers from their route). I'm not sure why crossrail would be to blame for any issues that may exist elsewhere on TfL, and I don't get the impression other areas have been ignored (think of the recent Northern line upgrades etc.)

danielcanning · 25 May 2022

Trainbike46 said:
Crossrail has been in the planning for years. Noone would benefit from delaying it further because of issues on other parts of the TfL network (and for some passengers, crossrail opening may improve the situation as it offers an alternative route or reduces overcrowding by removing some passengers from their route). I'm not sure why crossrail would be to blame for any issues that may exist elsewhere on TfL, and I don't get the impression other areas have been ignored (think of the recent Northern line upgrades etc.)

By diverting attention (and money) from the rest of TfL, yes Crossrail is needed but what use is the line if you have to wait 20-30 minutes for a connecting tube…

AlbertBeale · 25 May 2022

As I said in my post (No 220) in the "Crossrail opening day" thread, I wonder whether the hype (and expense) is justified - at least as far as the tunnelled central section is concerned. I'm all for additional rail capacity; but could the resources and time taken up with that have done more for mobility within London if spent on expanding and upgrading the existing Underground system?

coppercapped · 25 May 2022

I suppose that the Northern line extension to Battersea Power Station, the new platform and other works at Bank don't count nor the new signalling system on the sub-surface lines?

Added in edit: Mayor Khan's fares freeze didn't help TfL's finances one bit. Many projects have been delayed or put on hold - talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

Lewlew · 25 May 2022

danielcanning said:
By diverting attention (and money) from the rest of TfL, yes Crossrail is needed but what use is the line if you have to wait 20-30 minutes for a connecting tube…

Where have you needed to wait 20-30 minutes for a tube?

tomuk · 25 May 2022

danielcanning said:
By diverting attention (and money) from the rest of TfL, yes Crossrail is needed but what use is the line if you have to wait 20-30 minutes for a connecting tube…

If you read some of the Crossrail / TfL / Mayoral / London Assembly manegment/finanical reports you would see that an open and running EL is a net revenue earner for TfL and the sooner it is finished and open the more money there will be for the rest of TfL.

danielcanning · 25 May 2022

Lewlew said:
Where have you needed to wait 20-30 minutes for a tube?

Today, on the Met line, 25 minutes for an Uxbridge service…

JonathanH · 25 May 2022

danielcanning said:
Today, on the Met line, 25 minutes for an Uxbridge service…

At Harrow-on-the-Hill or further south?

danielcanning · 25 May 2022

JonathanH said:
At Harrow-on-the-Hill or further south?

At Moorgate, I just travelled from Canary Wharf. In the end I jumped back on Crossrail to Paddington and then on to West Drayton.

Roast Veg · 25 May 2022

The Underground is falling apart because of covid, not crossrail.

matt_world2004 · 25 May 2022

The tube is significantly more reliable now. Than 20 years ago.

danielcanning said:
Today, on the Met line, 25 minutes for an Uxbridge service…

Probably should have gone to baker Street where more Mets would have been leaving from there

danielcanning · 25 May 2022

matt_world2004 said:
The tube is significantly more reliable now. Than 20 years ago.

Probably should have gone to baker Street where more Mets would have been leaving from there

There weren’t, before going back down to the Liz line platforms I asked a member of staff who confirmed that I would be waiting whether I stayed at Moorgate or went to Baker Street.

name_required · 26 May 2022

AlbertBeale said:
As I said in my post (No 220) in the "Crossrail opening day" thread, I wonder whether the hype (and expense) is justified - at least as far as the tunnelled central section is concerned. I'm all for additional rail capacity; but could the resources and time taken up with that have done more for mobility within London if spent on expanding and upgrading the existing Underground system?

Before covid (which was when the major decisions about Crossrail were taken), the Central line had about 30 trains per hour, each with a capacity of 800+ people. Yet both the trains and the stations were full, forcing regular closures due to dangerous overcrowding. Is there any upgrade to the Central line that could have fixed that problem in the way Crossrail does?

AlbertBeale · 26 May 2022

name_required said:
Before covid (which was when the major decisions about Crossrail were taken), the Central line had about 30 trains per hour, each with a capacity of 800+ people. Yet both the trains and the stations were full, forcing regular closures due to dangerous overcrowding. Is there any upgrade to the Central line that could have fixed that problem in the way Crossrail does?

I take your point - but with Crossrail only stopping at 2 (eventually 3) of the many Central Line stations in central London, it's not really much of an alternative. The main relief I suspect will be if people are coming from the east on the Central, heading to a destination which requires a change somewhere, and where that destination can also be reached with no change or only one change using Crossrail, then they might switch from the Central to Crossrail at Stratford (especially if the interchange there is an easy one!).

I reckon that the original Fleet Line tube route would have done much more to help east-west journeys in the centre - and done it much more cheaply and done it decades earlier! (Though I accept that its diversion along the south side of the Thames plugs a useful gap in the tube network.)

Atomix330 · 26 May 2022

danielcanning said:
At Moorgate, I just travelled from Canary Wharf. In the end I jumped back on Crossrail to Paddington and then on to West Drayton.

If heading to Uxbridge no sense to change at Farringdon/Moorgate if you were on EL from Canary Wharf. Met stock is still running a reduced service I think because of a fault with wheel sets.

AlbertBeale said:
I take your point - but with Crossrail only stopping at 2 (eventually 3) of the many Central Line stations in central London, it's not really much of an alternative. The main relief I suspect will be if people are coming from the east on the Central, heading to a destination which requires a change somewhere, and where that destination can also be reached with no change or only one change using Crossrail, then they might switch from the Central to Crossrail at Stratford (especially if the interchange there is an easy one!).

I reckon that the original Fleet Line tube route would have done much more to help east-west journeys in the centre - and done it much more cheaply and done it decades earlier! (Though I accept that its diversion along the south side of the Thames plugs a useful gap in the tube network.)

Crossrail is designed to connect the Western/M4 corridor commuter belt at one end, and routes and developments in the SE and beyond Stratford and give easy access to Central London terminii - Bond Street interchange will be a gamechanger. Within the central section its really a connector with existing interchanges and terminii. The new stations out at Custom House, Woolwich, and Abbey Wood allow for new developments in the SE suburbs, just as better connectivity for Acton and Southall has seen new development there.

Fleet line would have overduplicated the Central and District. The Jubilee again was designed to connect existing interchanges and terminii rather than be a whole new direction of travel.

coppercapped said:
I suppose that the Northern line extension to Battersea Power Station, the new platform and other works at Bank don't count nor the new signalling system on the sub-surface lines?

Added in edit: Mayor Khan's fares freeze didn't help TfL's finances one bit. Many projects have been delayed or put on hold - talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

Fare freeze is one of the few ways to encourage use and discourage cars/private hire/Uber. Finances are being squeezed by Central Government and inflation more than anything.

hwl · 26 May 2022

Atomix330 said:
If heading to Uxbridge no sense to change at Farringdon/Moorgate if you were on EL from Canary Wharf. Met stock is still running a reduced service I think because of a fault with wheel sets.

Crossrail is designed to connect the Western/M4 corridor commuter belt at one end, and routes and developments in the SE and beyond Stratford and give easy access to Central London terminii - Bond Street interchange will be a gamechanger. Within the central section its really a connector with existing interchanges and terminii. The new stations out at Custom House, Woolwich, and Abbey Wood allow for new developments in the SE suburbs, just as better connectivity for Acton and Southall has seen new development there.

Fleet line would have overduplicated the Central and District. The Jubilee again was designed to connect existing interchanges and terminii rather than be a whole new direction of travel.

Fare freeze is one of the few ways to encourage use and discourage cars/private hire/Uber. Finances are being squeezed by Central Government and inflation more than anything.

SK's original election team didn't have a full grip on TfL finances and hadn't picked up on the the Johnson-Grayling grant reduction.

Uber's pricing is has effectively gone up a lot including applying VAT from late March this year and then there are all the historic VAT issues with HMRC owed billions for Uber use in London alone, the question is where the Uber shareholder take the hit or whether they try to recover it with fare increases.
There are also issues with long term lease they took on some vehicles that they subleased to drivers that are no longer eligible for congestion charge exemptions and hence the shift to Teslas.
The extra Heathrow charges should also help encourage people towards Crossrail when it is fully open.

London construction cost inflation as been in the 8-10% bracket for very long time (decade+).

There will be big usage changes in existing public transport when Bond Street and GEML / GWML through running starts.

SynthD · 26 May 2022

TfL, like the government, do not have finances that can be understood by thinking of them as a family household. The time and money scale of Crossrail, LU maintenance and the fare freeze are very far apart, decreasing in that order.

STINT47 · 26 May 2022

One impact of Crossrail may be on the retailers at Paddington and Liverpool Strert. Once fully opened a lot of people will no longer need to use the concourse at these stations and will no longer pass the shops and spend money.

Over time this could result in less retail rent money from the stations, although I appreciate that this will impact Network Rail rather than TFL.

swt_passenger · 26 May 2022

AlbertBeale said:
I take your point - but with Crossrail only stopping at 2 (eventually 3) of the many Central Line stations in central London, it's not really much of an alternative. The main relief I suspect will be if people are coming from the east on the Central, heading to a destination which requires a change somewhere, and where that destination can also be reached with no change or only one change using Crossrail, then they might switch from the Central to Crossrail at Stratford (especially if the interchange there is an easy one!).

The idea is that the separate entrances at Bond St, Hanover Square, Dean St and Tottenham Court Rd give the effect of four stations in parallel with the middle stretch of the Central Line.

Interchange at Stratford is cross platform as it has been for many years. The assumption seems to be that flows will be the other way around to when it was the GE electrics, ie Central to Crossrail in the up direction, and vice versa.

Dr Hoo · 26 May 2022

swt_passenger said:
The idea is that the separate entrances at Bond St, Hanover Square, Dean St and Tottenham Court Rd give the effect of four stations in parallel with the middle stretch of the Central Line.

Interchange at Stratford is cross platform as it has been for many years. The assumption seems to be that flows will be the other way around to when it was the GE electrics, ie Central to Crossrail in the up direction, and vice versa.

And Paddington is very close to Lancaster Gate.

In future Ealing Broadway will be the western equivalent of Stratford.

Even West Acton and North Acton may see passengers preferring Acton Main Line.

danielcanning said:
The Elizabeth Line opened yesterday to great fanfare, including on this forum. However the rest of TfL is falling apart, long delays and cancellations on tube and bus services etc etc. In my opinion the management should focus on getting existing services up to standard before focusing on Crossrail. Your thoughts?

Arguably if 'management' had spent the past ten years focussing a bit more on Crossrail (rather than allowing it to proceed for years at arms length with appallingly weak governance) it might not have been years late and £4,000,000,000 over budget.

This could have allowed more money to be spent on the rest of the system.

coppercapped · 26 May 2022

This is starting to go a bit off-topic but it does follow on from the thread title.

Capital projects such as Crossrail are accounted for differently than day-to-day operating costs. It’s the difference between capital expenditure (Capex) and operating expenditure (Opex). In the case of Crossrail some £4 billion of the Capex came from a levy on business rates in London and the amount raised by this means was not affected by the fares freeze. Similarly the £5.11 billion DfT/Treasury funding was also unaffected by the fares freeze

So the statement that total expenditure on Crossrail is higher than maintenance expenditure is correct - but that is not the point. Capex is time limited, Opex is continuous. Over four years the fares freeze caused an estimated loss of nearly £650 million in TfL’s income, over 10 years this is £1.5 billion. This is serious money out of the Opex budget as the pre-2016 deal was that TfL would cover its day-to-day operations out of the fare box and the Government would fund Capex.

Fare levels are only one of the factors that people consider when making travel choices - others are suitability of the mode(s), frequency, times and so on. Not just the fare level but simplicity and ease of payment also play an important role and in this respect the availability of Oyster and other contactless payment methods with daily and weekly capping make the cost of the individual transaction less significant to the purchaser. So, yes, at the margins higher fares may dissuade some people from travelling, mostly not.

But for the operator a fares freeze means that the income is lost for many years into the future as it is subsequently very difficult to raise fares more quickly to recover the loss. The issue is simply ‘How much of the operational costs should be covered by fares and how much by tax?’ although in theory a Government can make as much money available as it wishes, in practice this is not so. In the case of TfL, and the railways in general, the more of the pot of money that goes into day-to-day operations, the less will be available for enhancements.

You pays your money and you makes your choice.

SynthD · 26 May 2022

Dr Hoo said:
Arguably if 'management' had spent the past ten years focussing a bit more on Crossrail (rather than allowing it to proceed for years at arms length with appallingly weak governance) it might not have been years late and £4,000,000,000 over budget.

This could have allowed more money to be spent on the rest of the system.

I would be interested in an inquiry into that, because whatever lessons can be learned have a place to be applied. However, the 2008-2016 black hole of (see recent headline news) puts a limit on that.

The money came from central government, who wouldn’t spend it on popular projects otherwise because of reasons an inquiry wouldn’t cover (black hole again). The debt will be a struggle.

norbitonflyer · 26 May 2022

Lewlew said:
Where have you needed to wait 20-30 minutes for a tube?

Hammersmith on Tuesday (on my way home after trying out Crossrail). District Line suspended west of Earls Court. Ended up walking from Acton Town to Gunnersbury in a thunderstorm.

camflyer · 26 May 2022

Roast Veg said:
The Underground is falling apart because of covid, not crossrail.

COVID is a big part of the problem but TfL was in financial trouble before 2020 with bus routes scrapped and several planned schemes being cancelled or put on ice. Mr Mayor needs to take some responsibly for the effects of his populist but disastrous fare freeze policy.

Trainbike46 · 26 May 2022

camflyer said:
COVID is a big part of the problem but TfL was in financial trouble before 2020 with bus routes scrapped and several planned schemes being cancelled or put on ice. Mr Mayor needs to take some responsibly for the effects of his populist but disastrous fare freeze policy.

Even if you agree that the fare freeze is the cause of financial trouble at TfL, which I don't, to be clear, then that doesn't remove the point that TfL's current financial problems are (largely) caused by COVID, not by crossrail as the topicstarter here seemed to suggest.

stuu · 26 May 2022

coppercapped said:
So the statement that total expenditure on Crossrail is higher than maintenance expenditure is correct - but that is not the point. Capex is time limited, Opex is continuous. Over four years the fares freeze caused an estimated loss of nearly £650 million in TfL’s income, over 10 years this is £1.5 billion. This is serious money out of the Opex budget as the pre-2016 deal was that TfL would cover its day-to-day operations out of the fare box and the Government would fund Capex.

TfL's Opex is ~£6,000m per year, so over the four years of the fare freeze total Opex would be £24,000m. The fare freeze amounts to 2.7% of that. Not ideal but serious is a bit strong, especially as it was supposedly paid for by making efficiency savings. Of course its a lot of money, but compared to the budget it's not

coppercapped · 27 May 2022

stuu said:
TfL's Opex is ~£6,000m per year, so over the four years of the fare freeze total Opex would be £24,000m. The fare freeze amounts to 2.7% of that. Not ideal but serious is a bit strong, especially as it was supposedly paid for by making efficiency savings. Of course its a lot of money, but compared to the budget it's not

Thank you for the hard numbers, but as is often the case the effects of insufficient income are seen at the margins.

For decades the Underground was starved of cash except for the bare minimum to keep it operating safely[1]. All those things which could have made it more pleasant to use were not done. From the time I first started using the Underground on a regular basis in the early 1960s the stations looked grimy and uncared for; the condition of the track was appalling with a tooth-jarring ride on the sub-surface routes. Another example of the decay in the 1990s was the ‘temporary’ closure of both Mornington Crescent and Regent’s Park stations as there was no money available to replace the lifts. If I remember correctly in the same era the cost of replacing the lifts at Aldwych also led the the permanent closure of the branch as the falling passenger numbers meant the expenditure could not be justified.

Such repairs are part of the on-going cost of running a railway and are classified as Opex. Even a 2.7% fall will mean that work is cut back or delayed and these will be the 'nice to haves' rather than the 'essentials'. And it's the 'nice to haves' which make life easier for humans.

[1] Money became available after the Kings Cross fire in 1987 but it took at least a decade before the system started to look presentable again; long welded rails on the Met route to Hammersmith and the northern side of the Circle first appeared in the mid-1990s.

stuu · 27 May 2022

coppercapped said:
Thank you for the hard numbers, but as is often the case the effects of insufficient income are seen at the margins.

For decades the Underground was starved of cash except for the bare minimum to keep it operating safely[1]. All those things which could have made it more pleasant to use were not done. From the time I first started using the Underground on a regular basis in the early 1960s the stations looked grimy and uncared for; the condition of the track was appalling with a tooth-jarring ride on the sub-surface routes. Another example of the decay in the 1990s was the ‘temporary’ closure of both Mornington Crescent and Regent’s Park stations as there was no money available to replace the lifts. If I remember correctly in the same era the cost of replacing the lifts at Aldwych also led the the permanent closure of the branch as the falling passenger numbers meant the expenditure could not be justified.

Such repairs are part of the on-going cost of running a railway and are classified as Opex. Even a 2.7% fall will mean that work is cut back or delayed and these will be the 'nice to haves' rather than the 'essentials'. And it's the 'nice to haves' which make life easier for humans.

[1] Money became available after the Kings Cross fire in 1987 but it took at least a decade before the system started to look presentable again; long welded rails on the Met route to Hammersmith and the northern side of the Circle first appeared in the mid-1990s.

Those are all very good points, but as the numbers show, the whole thing has been entirely hyped for political reasons. Another poster describes it above as disastrous, and that does seem to be the prevailing view, even though it has no basis in fact. It's also a significantly lower number than some other mayors have spent on their political wheezes

matacaster · 28 May 2022

Atomix330 said:
If heading to Uxbridge no sense to change at Farringdon/Moorgate if you were on EL from Canary Wharf. Met stock is still running a reduced service I think because of a fault with wheel sets.

Crossrail is designed to connect the Western/M4 corridor commuter belt at one end, and routes and developments in the SE and beyond Stratford and give easy access to Central London terminii - Bond Street interchange will be a gamechanger. Within the central section its really a connector with existing interchanges and terminii. The new stations out at Custom House, Woolwich, and Abbey Wood allow for new developments in the SE suburbs, just as better connectivity for Acton and Southall has seen new development there.

Fleet line would have overduplicated the Central and District. The Jubilee again was designed to connect existing interchanges and terminii rather than be a whole new direction of travel.

Fare freeze is one of the few ways to encourage use and discourage cars/private hire/Uber. Finances are being squeezed by Central Government and inflation more than anything.

Did you forget to mention the massive crossrail cost overruns?

Has Crossrail negatively affected other TfL services?

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