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Nottingham 'Bus War'

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MCR247

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I'd agree that most people are annoyed that they can no longer use NCT tickets and have a 24/7 service
 
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WillPS

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There was apparently a covenant in the will of the company founder preventing the business from being sold to Trent. Therefore, the company was officially sold to and will be operated by Midland General.

While Premiere may make a success of the direct route to the Airport, it should be considered that the people in Clifton, who they are seeking to help, are upset at the loss of their NCT service, which they can use their NCT tickets on - 24 hours a day. The Premiere service is unlikely to be running 24hrs, and will not accept NCT tickets - so that market is gone.

On the other hand, maybe they could route via East Midlands Parkway, to provide a bus to the airport?
I'd agree that most people are annoyed that they can no longer use NCT tickets and have a 24/7 service
The Premiere service will be 24 hours according to their Facebook. I guess we'll see how much of a factor NCT is - but the Tram isn't empty now that NCT tickets aren't valid (although it will have taken a hit I'm sure).
I think most people are upset about their link to the airport being lost, which includes people who live in Wilford and Clifton and work at the airport who are not looking at having to either get a car or leave their jobs (not a great thing at a time like this when there are not going to be other jobs to walk into). Most NCT tickets aren't valid beyond Clifton anyway (on either the Skylink or the 1). NCT themselves are looking at what they can do to replace the Nottingham to Clifton part of the Skylink by changes to their existing 1,2,3 and 4 which run the same route to Clifton.
I agree, and if NCT step up to the plate by improving the 4 or something to run overnight, along with a reduced frequency along the original route and a commercial 'replacement' route - and if they all survive and prove their sustainability, this is a deregulation success story with no real losers (except in terms of ticket price - but then there's no council subsidisation on that ticket).
 

MCR247

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Perhaps the bus was expected then but then a passenger got on with a complicated query or got into an argument with the driver. Could you design a system that could account for that?

Unfortunately these systems are at usually at their most accurate at higher prediction values (say there's 4 sets of traffic lights on the way to your stop - the bus may typically get caught at 2 of them and the averaging out works, when there's only 1 set it doesn't know if the bus will get caught or not and it may make 2 minutes difference - but if the system assumes the higher value people will complain that the bus came before the prediction said).

I don't want a system that can account for that, I don't want it at all! It would just be so much easier to just have the time it was booked at. If its a bit late, I really don't care. Saying "2 mins" isn't going to help me or make it get here quicker, just make me more annoyed if its still on "2 mins" 5 minutes later. I personally would prefer it to just come up with "bus is slightly delayed due to...." scrolling below the times or something
 

ChrisCooper

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The Premiere service will be 24 hours according to their Facebook. I guess we'll see how much of a factor NCT is - but the Tram isn't empty now that NCT tickets aren't valid (although it will have taken a hit I'm sure).
I agree, and if NCT step up to the plate by improving the 4 or something to run overnight, along with a reduced frequency along the original route and a commercial 'replacement' route - and if they all survive and prove their sustainability, this is a deregulation success story with no real losers (except in terms of ticket price - but then there's no council subsidisation on that ticket).

They could run the 4 24 hours, but currently it's funded by Nottingham Trent, so either NCT would have to persuade Trent to increase the funding for a 24 hour service, or run the 24 hour service themselves. I suppose they could use smaller buses, perhaps Solos (there are plenty free at Gotham overnight, off the 2, 3 and L53), which would reduce the costs. I imagine the students are the main users of the 24 hour Skylink from the City to Clifton, especially since the estate gets the N48 until 3 anyway. A few people have suggested extending it to Man of Trent and then either turn at the Crusader Island, or through Clifton, but the latter would have to be funded by NCT as NTU wouldn't stump up for the extra buses and milage (especially at peak times when doing doing a right out the uni and down to Crusader would probably need 10mins due to traffic), and they definitly wouldn't agree to them running through the estate.
 

Deerfold

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I don't want a system that can account for that, I don't want it at all! It would just be so much easier to just have the time it was booked at. If its a bit late, I really don't care. Saying "2 mins" isn't going to help me or make it get here quicker, just make me more annoyed if its still on "2 mins" 5 minutes later. I personally would prefer it to just come up with "bus is slightly delayed due to...." scrolling below the times or something

If it's only going to give a booked time then you might as well just look at the timetable. At least with a sign you can see your bus hasn't come early and if it's late it's on its way. It's in the nature if predictions to not always able to be accurate. If your predictions are always wrong there's probably a problem with the system.

I'm mystified how you think an automated system could tell you why each bus is late without slowing down the bus even more for the bus driver to tell the system.
 

WillPS

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If it's only going to give a booked time then you might as well just look at the timetable. At least with a sign you can see your bus hasn't come early and if it's late it's on its way. It's in the nature if predictions to not always able to be accurate. If your predictions are always wrong there's probably a problem with the system.

I'm mystified how you think an automated system could tell you why each bus is late without slowing down the bus even more for the bus driver to tell the system.

"Stuck between bus-stop-x and bus-stop-y"
Easy peasy.
 

radamfi

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"Stuck between bus-stop-x and bus-stop-y"
Easy peasy.

GPS based real time information systems do know which two stops a vehicle is between. This can be seen by looking at the real time information for each stop on the internet, whether this is through a PC browser, phone browser or phone app. There would be two consecutive stops where a bus is due shortly at one stop and does not appear at the previous stop. You could then deduce that the bus is between those two stops. I do this myself with the TfL mobile Countdown site if I am curious to know where the next bus is, rather than how many minutes away it is. Similarly with National Rail live departures.

So it is certainly theoretically possible for a bus stop display to say which two stops a bus is between, but that would require a good knowledge of bus stop names which most punters don't have, and probably a bigger display. So operators try to predict how long the bus will take to get there, which can be variable, so inevitably will be inaccurate from time to time.

Presumably in the future most people will prefer to get this information from their mobile device so bus stop displays will not be as important.
 

Heinz57

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Further update on the Felix front.

Apparently only one of the VDLs (56) is going over to Skylink. The others are still going to Trent, but being used elsewhere.

Realy one should be kept red and white and used as a spare on the ex-Felix routes. should something go wrong with the Scanias I'm sure the passengers would appreciate going on one of them more than a unibus liveried Palidan.
 

WillPS

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Having one bus spare for two routes makes sense when you only run two routes, but not when you're an operator of a comprehensive service across two counties and cities.

Why would it have to be a Paladin anyway? They're known to turn up on Transpeak but I don't know of any other main routes?

Sweet Topscan btw.
 

Heinz57

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Pallidens end up on anything. Infact, I can confirm one was running the BC today (I bet the scanias are all in the trent garage having the FELIX writing taken off. Sad times!). The Sunday service which was ran by TM travel will now be ran by ex-Felix. However todays Sunday run is being coverd by Notts & Derby, Felix are having a bit of a farwell due apparently.

Don't get me wrong, Pallidens are good buses. You can't break them (Unless your a Derby Uni sound and light student with a scissor lift*). They're just increadibly uncomfortable.

Sweet Topscan btw.

Cheers ;)

*Long story
 
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WillPS

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Can you elaborate on the Derby Uni student? :D

I always found them rather uncomfortable personally... but in fairness it looks like they're the rare beast of bus which last their whole service life with one operator (kind of, at least!).
 

Heinz57

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Can you elaborate on the Derby Uni student? :D

It wasn't me, honest! :lol:

No, some students who wern't even qualified to be operating the lift were moving it around the campus, ready to start rigging for the may ball a couple of years ago. Something on the lift went wrong, it went straight into the back of the bus, badly damaged the metal work and I think it also damaged some break or hydrolic lines too.

Student completley embaressed. Wellglade/Notts + Derby and the students union not best pleased
 

Deerfold

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"Stuck between bus-stop-x and bus-stop-y"
Easy peasy.

You seem to have changed what you want.


I don't want a system that can account for that, I don't want it at all! It would just be so much easier to just have the time it was booked at. If its a bit late, I really don't care. Saying "2 mins" isn't going to help me or make it get here quicker, just make me more annoyed if its still on "2 mins" 5 minutes later. I personally would prefer it to just come up with "bus is slightly delayed due to...." scrolling below the times or something

Inevitably these systems cannot provide all the information everyone wants. Generally the messages are kept simple and easy to understand (and thus short). I suspect your service is infrequent. As soon as signs have buses close to one another it becomes unwieldy to have more than 1 static line of information.
I'll accept you don't like the way they provide information, but most people seem to (I work with one and the number of pieces of correspondence from people wanting a sign at their local stop outweighs any complaints by a landslide. The vast majority of complaints are where a local issue causes regular inaccuracy.
 

Deerfold

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How, pray tell, have you come to that conclusion?

You've gone from wanting details of why the bus is delayed to just wanting to know which bus stops it's between.

If I've misunderstood and you want both then you've ignored my questions about how this information gets into the system without slowing the bus down further.
 

ChrisCooper

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Real time information can never be 100% accurate as it's always based on how long an average run will take. Even trains which are easier are often not great for it. Number of times I've seen a train showing "on time" only for it to come in late (still showing on time) or for it to be showing late and to arrive on time. Trains are usually based on departure or passing times at stations compared to timetable, so the system doesn't take into account loosing or gaining time after the last timing point. Buses are oviously unpredictable in terms of how long a particular part of the journey will take depending on things like traffic, stops, traffic lights etc.

Oviously the value of real time information depends on what it's being used for. I find it can be useful in two ways, firstly for deciding to take an alternative route, and secondly knowing there is time to go an do something else (for example going to the shop, or going and waiting somewhere warm). As an example a journey I make quite often by bus there are two services within a few mins of each other, one which is direct to where I want to go, the other is indirect and requires a change. The fast one gets more passengers so at busy times is more prone to delays, and also comes a route that means it gets held in traffic more. If I know it's running more than 10 or 15mins late then I know I can get where I want to be faster by using the indirect bus (as long as that's ontime too). Had a few times with trains too where I've gone a slower route because I've known that due to delays it will be faster than waiting for my planned route. Oviously both the rail and bus case need either a knowledge of alternative routes (and costs or ticket validities), or quick access to a journey planner.
 

WillPS

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You've gone from wanting details of why the bus is delayed to just wanting to know which bus stops it's between.

If I've misunderstood and you want both then you've ignored my questions about how this information gets into the system without slowing the bus down further.

Don't see where I said I wanted that?
 

Deerfold

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Don't see where I said I wanted that?

Apologies - it wasn't you who said what they wanted originally - but my point was that your suggested solution does not solve the question I asked on how to implement MCR247's request:

It was you that suggested that putting up which stops it was between would solve this.

I personally would prefer it to just come up with "bus is slightly delayed due to...." scrolling below the times or something

I'm mystified how you think an automated system could tell you why each bus is late without slowing down the bus even more for the bus driver to tell the system.

"Stuck between bus-stop-x and bus-stop-y"
Easy peasy.

My point is that your solution does not tell you why the bus is late (as well as taking up a lot more space on the signs - and increasing the amount of data sent by the system).

There you go.
 

trentside

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Premiere's Red Flyer timetable is now available. The service between Nottingham and East Midlands Airport runs 24/7. Daytime journeys are via Kegworth and the frequency is hourly.

http://www.redflyer.co.uk/
 

bb21

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It seems like a huge loss-leader. Are they receiving any subsidy? If not then I can't see this level of fare lasting more than a couple of months, unless they're expecting patronage to be very high indeed.

At an hourly level, they're hardly going to be able to compete with NCT between Clifton and Centre, even with a slightly lower fare, and I can't see it being well-loaded beyond. I think if TB sit tight with this one then they should be able to see it through.
 

radamfi

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At an hourly level, they're hardly going to be able to compete with NCT between Clifton and Centre, even with a slightly lower fare, and I can't see it being well-loaded beyond. I think if TB sit tight with this one then they should be able to see it through.

I can certainly see this argument. If Trent consider the £2 fare to be unsustainable then they might not react. The current NCT service requires subsidy even on much higher fares. On the other hand, Premiere's service is substantially quicker than the new Skylink, so perhaps passengers will be prepared to wait for Premiere, especially given the lower fare, so that may give Trent cause for concern if Premiere decide to continue the route for a long period of time.
 

WillPS

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I dunno. They're not starting from scratch with this one, they'll be picking up where NCT are leaving off. I don't know the full economics of coach operation, can anyone fill me in with an illustrative cost?
 

tbone

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It seems like a huge loss-leader. Are they receiving any subsidy? If not then I can't see this level of fare lasting more than a couple of months, unless they're expecting patronage to be very high indeed.

At an hourly level, they're hardly going to be able to compete with NCT between Clifton and Centre, even with a slightly lower fare, and I can't see it being well-loaded beyond. I think if TB sit tight with this one then they should be able to see it through.

NCT have also announced today that they'll be "filling in the gaps" left behind by the withdrawl of the skylink so Premiere can't expect too much traffic from Clifton.

Also interesting to hear is that Trent's skylink is being advertised in Clifton!
 

silvermachine

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NCT have also announced today that they'll be "filling in the gaps" left behind by the withdrawl of the skylink so Premiere can't expect too much traffic from Clifton.

Also interesting to hear is that Trent's skylink is being advertised in Clifton!

NCT have just announced that they will be filling the gap by increasing the frequency of the no1 to 15 minutes which is very welcome to those of us who had become used to using skylink as our regular bus link to the city. Also they will be introducing a new night bus N1 which will take up the substantial night traffic that used skylink back to the university. (Some other changes too )

Im genuinely impressed with NCT and how they are trying to respond the community needs here after the skylink service ends.

The Premiere airport service is scheduled to be hourly 24 hours which is ambitious. But it will be 10 to 15 minutes faster from the airport to the city than the TB service, it goes direct to the station- which is where about half the tourist traffic gets off, and will have the benefit of those who travel to work at the airport and had developed their travel patterns around skylink from clifton (ie both my next door neighbours!) I'd expect it to have a good chance, and certainly to be better used initially than the TB service.
 

tbone

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NCT have just announced that they will be filling the gap by increasing the frequency of the no1 to 15 minutes which is very welcome to those of us who had become used to using skylink as our regular bus link to the city. Also they will be introducing a new night bus N1 which will take up the substantial night traffic that used skylink back to the university. (Some other changes too )

Im genuinely impressed with NCT and how they are trying to respond the community needs here after the skylink service ends.

The Premiere airport service is scheduled to be hourly 24 hours which is ambitious. But it will be 10 to 15 minutes faster from the airport to the city than the TB service, it goes direct to the station- which is where about half the tourist traffic gets off, and will have the benefit of those who travel to work at the airport and had developed their travel patterns around skylink from clifton (ie both my next door neighbours!) I'd expect it to have a good chance, and certainly to be better used initially than the TB service.

I wouldn't be so sure- the Trent skylink will carry some of the current NCT custom, because that's the official, publicised replacement. It will also take those living in Beeston and Long Eaton to the airport for those who currently use Indigo.

It will also offer faster journies to Long Eaton and Beeston so there will be some traffic there.

It will also pick a lot of connecting traffic up- you can go from anywhere in Trent's quite comprehensive network to the airport for just £5 after 9 on weekdays, anytime on weekends as well as other discounts for children and students with mango.

As an aside, I've heard that Scanias 662 and 663 (ex. Rainbow 1) 668 (Sutton spare) and 667 (Derby spare) are to be used, alongside 637 which will be replaced on Skylink Derby Leicester by the former Felix Volvo centro
 

MCR247

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The thing is, Premiere won't get NCTs revenue to and from Clifton, so I think Nottingham - Airport traffic will make a loss, as it would (and will) on Trent Barton. But I think Trent Bartons will make a profit on the whole because it:
- Provides the Loughborough - Long Eaton indigo
- Competes with Red5 from Long Eaton - Nottingham
- May replace the LEX, or at least supplement it
- Provide TB with the oppurtunity to run another indigo somewhere else*

So it is basically killing lots of birds with one stone.

*Will they just turn it back at Long Eaton? With a recast they should use it to make the Derby service every 15 minutes as they are well patronized, but Derby bus station kills that idea.

Anyone have any ideas?
 
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