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  1. brad465

    How many people have symptomatic Covid in the UK right now?

    Ironically, I think the REACT study is the least reactive of the lot, partly in the sense it's the slowest, but also because it doesn't extrapolate I think as much as ZOE and the ONS do. When it comes to trustworthiness and reliability I rank measures in the following order: 1) ONS 2) ZOE 3)...
  2. brad465

    New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

    We'll get a test of that this weekend, with 15-16C forecast in London & the South East and East Anglia, and similar temperatures and dry weather are forecast more widely in the following week. However even in the snow enforcement was a challenge, thinking of the large sledge gathering in the...
  3. brad465

    New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

    I'd argue if there's a spectrum for what strategy is the best one, where the middle ground is sensible, Zero covid is at one end and Covid denying at the other, but being on the extremes they are both dangerous concepts. In other words, I'd liken Zero covid to covid denying in terms of how...
  4. brad465

    New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

    This week's ONS infection survey keeps up the rapid decline, and looking in particular at the age rates the marked decline in those aged 70+ infected looks to be a sign of the vaccines working, while the much lower positivity rates in that range and the 50-69 suggests decreasing hospitalisations...
  5. brad465

    22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

    The Telegraph are reporting on their front page the Pfizer and AZ vaccines reduce transmission by two-thirds in all age groups, even after one dose, which is critical good news as this is part of the major health data Johnson will be using in deciding the roadmap out of lockdown: Amazingly...
  6. brad465

    New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

    This is the weekend weather forecast in London (as the most populous area), but similar can be seen across large parts of east and south-east England too: Contrast that to the weekend before, when there was still snow and ice around but still plenty out and about, I can see the police having...
  7. brad465

    The "Look him in the eye" adverts

    In an evolution from the "Look him in the Eye" adverts, the Home Office have come up with this speechlessly horrifying advert: https://twitter.com/ukhomeoffice/status/1362107043847503872 (Click for video of it)
  8. brad465

    22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

    People making comments on the relevant BBC article about that seem to be just that. Perhaps if people in NI get more vocal and rebellious about that it might sway how our roadmap out of the lockdown turns out.
  9. brad465

    22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

    Even if this is a genuine reason to keep lockdown going, as time moves on the vaccine rollout will see hospitalisations and deaths continue to drop to the point more questions will be asked about why the focus is on cases and why restrictions are staying in place for so long.
  10. brad465

    COVID 19 Good News Stories

    Perhaps, however whatever the case we had a major nursing vacancy problem pre-Covid and were that not in place the NHS would have been in a far better place to manage this, so if we can actually go about fixing that issue it's no bad thing.
  11. brad465

    COVID 19 Good News Stories

    Record numbers have applied to become student nurses, suggesting this has inspired more than put off: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56111379
  12. brad465

    New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

    I do think there is an irony in this survey being called REACT when when it seems to be the least reactive survey of them all, in that there’s less surveying points and updates than the ONS and ZOE studies (yes I'm aware it's an acronym).
  13. brad465

    New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

    Add any potential seasonal effects kicking in and that 90% reduction in hospitalisations will be a reduction from a lower potential max value.
  14. brad465

    New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

    I can see why that sort of proposal might happen given it suggests almost everything will be open before the local elections.
  15. brad465

    New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

    CRG Chair Mark Harper is on Question Time tomorrow night, along with Peter Borg-Neal who's a hospitality CEO (Oakman Inns), so we might get some strong views criticising the current restriction sustainability out of them.
  16. brad465

    New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

    While I try to avoid whataboutery, I reckon it would initially have been stricter, but the media and hypothetical Tory opposition would have been extremely vocal against it and maybe even encouraged non-compliance, to the point that such a strategy would have fallen apart. Don't forget that...
  17. brad465

    New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

    It's certainly meeting expectations that are already very high: 30% of the adult population now has at least one dose and maybe influencing the plummeting death statistics and to a slightly lesser degree hospital admissions. Expectations won't just be about how many we vaccinate at a given...
  18. brad465

    22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

    Whatever is announced on Monday, I highly doubt it will go 100% as outlined (even if no dates are offered). Partly because nothing ever works 100% as intended, but I suspect if it's more cautious than many would like, while stats constantly improve, huge pressure from key groups and MPs, along...
  19. brad465

    New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

    Agree with this, but would add on the inquiries matter that the longer it keeps going the longer he can put off starting a public inquiry and the longer it will thus take to reach a conclusion, by which point he would be well gone from it having any effect on him. Chilcot for example only came...
  20. brad465

    New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

    Prior to a vaccine becoming available the most likely reason would have been a lack of courage to admit the whole strategy was wrong, which would explain why other countries are doing the same. This may well still apply, but for us I suspect keeping this going despite the vaccine being rolled...

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