‘Staying on Track: Maintaining Rail Connectivity for North Wales’

[merlodlliw]

Yes, that's exactly what I said! All you're doing is restating it in a different order! :roll:

AGAIN WITH RESPECT, I dont see how I restated it,and thanks for the rolling eyes.

 

[transmanche]

What other "across Chester" flows are you talking about of any significance? What is this strong market? Please tell us as i struggle to think what you could be referring to. Perhaps you mean Ynys Mon UA to Wrexham UA?

And there you are again with your partial figures that only count journeys between specific local authority areas in Wales. Incomplete figures mean nothing - and you know they are incomplete!

Anyone could spend time in trying to pick out specific figures which "prove" their case and pretend that other passengers (and other journey opportunities) simply don't exist.

The fact is you don't like Welsh Government policy, nothing is going to persuade you otherwise and you're simply blind to the fact anything other than the ballot box is going to change anything.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

AGAIN WITH RESPECT

There's no need to shout. And I suspect that was meant with absolutely no respect whatsoever.

I dont see how I restated it,and thanks for the rolling eyes.

Let's look again shall we?

So as 78% of journey opportunities require only one change, you'd be pretty unlucky to have to change twice.

That still leaves on your % 22% having to change twice, so unlucky if you are one of them.

I said that you'd have to be unlucky if you had to change twice. And you said the same. So you restated that.

I said 78% required only one change. And you said 22% had to change twice - which is exactly the same thing... it's simple KS1 maths! So you restated that too.

:roll:

 

[merlodlliw]

There's no need to shout. And I suspect that was meant with absolutely no respect whatsoever.

respect, that's your presupposition, thanks for the lesson.

Bob

 

[transmanche]

thanks for the lesson.

Happy to help

 

[6Gman]

I seem to have sparked something here ...

The point I was making was:

1. Journeys from the likes of Stoke/ Stafford/ Derby to North Wales require changes at Crewe and Chester through much of the day;
2. This didn't used to be the case in the past when there were through trains from Crewe through much of the day;
3. If Creweis to be developed as a HS2 hub then a double change (i.e. at Chester and Crewe) will be unattractive.

 

[transmanche]

3. If Creweis to be developed as a HS2 hub then a double change (i.e. at Chester and Crewe) will be unattractive.

Major developments (like HS2) inevitably lead to a major recasting of services - look at HS1 for an example. So I don't think we need to worry too much right now about what may happen in 13-15 years time.

 

[merlodlliw]

I seem to have sparked something here ...

The point I was making was:

1. Journeys from the likes of Stoke/ Stafford/ Derby to North Wales require changes at Crewe and Chester through much of the day;
2. This didn't used to be the case in the past when there were through trains from Crewe through much of the day;
3. If Creweis to be developed as a HS2 hub then a double change (i.e. at Chester and Crewe) will be unattractive.

I have mentioned a few times on threads the Direct Derby/Llandudno DMU via Crewe "The Dragon Rapide", which ran Mon/Sat.

On another item, the 44% figure quoted North/South, a colleague has informed me how a researcher could have perhaps mistakenly included flows on other lines serving North/South.
However Aled Roberts the AM who presented "Staying On Track" at the Senedd on April 2nd is in Newport all weekend at a Party Conference with his staff plus The Welsh Assembly closed for a month for the Easter Break on April 3rd, I will inform everyone when I get the AMs response,personally after reading the content again,it looks in my opinion very much like a typo.
Bob

Here is the official WG record, http://www.assemblywales.org/docs/rop_xml/140402_plenary_bilingual.xml debate timed at 1753

 

[Gareth Marston]

Those interested in the actual official figures for travel within Wales and therefore directly relevant to discussions around North Wales to South Wales trains can find the 2012 figures here on the Welsh Government website.

http://wales.gov.uk/statistics-and-research/rail-transport/?lang=en

I'm sure certain people will claim their incomplete despite showing travel from all 22 Welsh Unitary Authority's to the other 22.

The North Wales (6 UA's) to South Wales (12 UA's) market share of journeys within Wales excluding those to England/Scotland is 4.5%. 149,800 journeys out of 3,296,374. Theirs 205 recorded journeys a day in each direction on average. Around a third of the journeys 45,700 are from Wrexham UA.

And of course when you add in the journeys form N Wales to England/Scotland the S Wales share of the North Wales Market will come down even more.

 

[transmanche]

Those interested in the actual official figures for travel within Wales and therefore directly relevant to discussions around North Wales to South Wales trains can find the 2012 figures here on the Welsh Government website.

Yet it's been pointed out to you on so many occasions (and not just by me) that North Wales-South Wales services are used by many more people than just those travelling between North Wales and South Wales - being as the trains also serve Cheshire, Shropshire and Herefordshire.

I'm sure certain people will claim their incomplete despite showing travel from all 22 Welsh Unitary Authority's to the other 22.

Of course they're incomplete - as they don't include journeys between Wales and England, or journeys wholly within England! A fact that you persistently and deliberately choose to ignore.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Yet it's been pointed out to you on so many occasions (and not just by me) that North Wales-South Wales services are used by many more people than just those travelling between North Wales and South Wales - being as the trains also serve Cheshire, Shropshire and Herefordshire.

Of course they're incomplete - as they don't include journeys between Wales and England, or journeys wholly within England! A fact that you persistently and deliberately choose to ignore.

Do you have any better figures then?

 

[transmanche]

Do you have any better figures then?

Of course I don't, as you well know they don't exist in the public domain. But incomplete figures are useless, as by definition they present a distorted view.

By trying to claim that the figures showing travel between local authority areas in Wales represents an accurate picture of passengers flows on the North-South services is just daft. You might as well pick out journeys made by passengers wearing blue jackets - and claim that is representative of all passenger flows!

 

[merlodlliw]

Yet it's been pointed out to you on so many occasions (and not just by me) that North Wales-South Wales services are used by many more people than just those travelling between North Wales and South Wales - being as the trains also serve Cheshire, Shropshire and Herefordshire.

Of course they're incomplete - as they don't include journeys between Wales and England, or journeys wholly within England! A fact that you persistently and deliberately choose to ignore.

I can see how a researcher can get confused,Crewe is in East Cheshire,served by Manchester traffic,whereas Chester on the North Wales run is in West Cheshire.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Of course I don't, as you well know they don't exist in the public domain. But incomplete figures are useless, as by definition they present a distorted view.

By trying to claim that the figures showing travel between local authority areas in Wales represents an accurate picture of passengers flows on the North-South services is just daft. You might as well pick out journeys made by passengers wearing blue jackets - and claim that is representative of all passenger flows!

Are you saying Welsh Government statistics are useless,out of interest.

By trying to claim that the figures showing travel between local authority areas in Wales represents an accurate picture of passengers flows on the North-South services is just daft. You might as well pick out journeys made by passengers wearing blue jackets - and claim that is representative of all passenger flows!

This is your opinion then,can you direct me to any document that supports your opinion.

 

[transmanche]

Are you saying Welsh Government statistics are useless,out of interest.

Where on earth did you get that from? I didn't suggest or imply anything like that. Perhaps you should re-read what I actually wrote.

Statistics which only show travel between local authority areas in Wales do not represent an accurate picture of the total passenger numbers on the North Wales-South Wales railway services.

• They do not include journeys between Wales and England.
• They do not include journeys wholly within England - and North Wales-South Wales route also serves Cheshire, Shropshire and Herefordshire.

Surely that's not too hard to understand?

 

[merlodlliw]

Where on earth did you get that from? I didn't suggest or imply anything like that. Perhaps you should re-read what I actually wrote.

Statistics which only show travel between local authority areas in Wales do not represent an accurate picture of the total passenger numbers on the North Wales-South Wales railway services.

• They do not include journeys between Wales and England.
• They do not include journeys wholly within England - and North Wales-South Wales route also serves Cheshire, Shropshire and Herefordshire.

Surely that's not too hard to understand?

As there are no other official figures,other than Welsh Governments,it has to be your opinion,I have read what you suggest,but it remains your opinion.

 

[transmanche]

As there are no other official figures,other than Welsh Governments,it has to be your opinion,I have read what you suggest,but it remains your opinion.

So you think it's "only my opinion" that the figures are an incomplete representation if usage of the North Wales-South Wales through trains? Despite the fact that the figures exclude all journeys starting or ending in England?

 

[Gareth Marston]

So you think it's "only my opinion" that the figures are an incomplete representation if usage of the North Wales-South Wales through trains? Despite the fact that the figures exclude all journeys starting or ending in England?

I'd draw your attention to the flow from the 6 N Wales Unitary Authorities to the 3 S Wales ones to the east and North of Cardiff served by the direct trains Newport, Torfaen and Monmouthshire. It totals 22,958 that's about 31 a day in each direction on average. Its small, as I stated in a previous post Ynys Mon, Gwynedd, Conwy and Denbighshire to/from Wrexham totaled around 44,000. The crux of the intermediate traffic argument is that it significantly increases the ridership. When you look at the figures on the link to the WG site I provided its very obvious that the bigger flows are always to the nearest neighbors and dramatically diminish the further away you go apart form a spike for Cardiff. I do not see how Shropshire and Herefordshire from Ynys Mon, Gwynedd, Conwy, Denbighshire and Flint are going to buck this trend. They'll be a flow from Wrexham to Shropshire as there next door and always had a direct link anyway.

The same will apply with Cheshire to Herefordshire but that always had a direct link via Crewe anyway.

 

[transmanche]

The crux of the intermediate traffic argument is that it significantly increases the ridership.

And those are the 'missing figures'. We can speculate on what they might be until the cows come home - but's that all it is... speculation.

You prefer to misrepresent the published figures as being the full picture, when you know that they are not. Quite why you go to these lengths in order to abolish the through N-S rail service is a mystery to me - when the only way you will bring about change os through the ballot box, by changing WG transport policy.

 

[merlodlliw]

As promised I have received the following amendment from Aled Roberts AM staff today.

You see, the difficulty we have is that, while we, as Assembly Members, can be concerned with regard to the frequency and quality of journeys between Cardiff and Holyhead, *the reality is that only 44% of traffic in north-east Wales and in north Wales as a whole is actually using that north-south route (see amendment in bold below)* The vast majority of journeys, whether commuter or otherwise, are actually east-west. It is noticeable. Stand at the station in Chester, and you will see that the vast majority of people travelling from Holyhead, Llandudno Junction and Rhyl will disembark at Chester and link into other services, whether those are to Crewe or elsewhere.
*Actual figure refers to: between 2005 – 2010 there has been a 44% increase in in train travel journeys between Wrexham General and Cardiff Central*

In the same period Wrexham General saw an increase to Manchester of 46% Chester 55%,London 61%,Liverpool 39%

Hope this clears up the misunderstanding,

 

[Gareth Marston]

And those are the 'missing figures'. We can speculate on what they might be until the cows come home - but's that all it is... speculation.

You prefer to misrepresent the published figures as being the full picture, when you know that they are not. Quite why you go to these lengths in order to abolish the through N-S rail service is a mystery to me - when the only way you will bring about change os through the ballot box, by changing WG transport policy.

the data presented is in fact highly consistent and shows a very strong and clear trend especially when you cross reference it with the 2007 Wales Rail Planing Assessment the same overall trend is in that too.

The trend is that the bulk of rail use from any given area is generally within in itself and with an adjacent (by rail) area. The numbers travelling longer distances dissipates down considerably with the exception of a small spike for Cardiff for the North, Mid and West Wales UA's. The UA's closer to Cardiff and within commuting range have a huge mountain of usage to/from Cardiff. take Carmarthenshire 80% of its recorded use within Wales is with itself, Pembrokeshire and Swansea. Cardiff gets 15% with the other 18 UA's in Wales sharing the other 5%.

On cross border flows in 2007 Cardiff UA had 40% to SW England, 40% to London & the SE with the rest of the UK sharing the remaining 20%. As a rule of thumb and paralleling the maxim of rugby union of moving turnover ball two passes away from the contact and you'll find the space , travel two UA's or regions and you'll find low numbers travelling. 87% of Conwy's usage in Wales is with itself Gwynedd and Denbighshire with Cardiff getting 2.5%, I could list every authority the trend is there.

If you look at "North Wales" in 2007 82% of the cross border traffic was with the North West of England and London and the SE. The "Cambrian" was 78% with West Midlands and London and SE. London and the SE are a big factor in cross border traffic. The adjacent and capital trend is again true.

Shropshire and Herefordshire are two steps removed from the UA's along the N Wales coast which is why given the evidence above I don't expect them to be spitting out any travelers to N Wales in quantity. Wrexham and Shropshire are adjacent. Chester and West Cheshire are three area steps from Herefordshire also.

 

[jones_bangor]

Given that the actual figures have been discussed numerous times on this forum and are very low this could well be a typo. 4% sounds right and squares with "vast majority" doing east-west.

Is there a source for the correct figures, or is it based on anecdotes?

In any case, what's required is a decent mixed service to a variety of destinations.

 

[merlodlliw]

Perhaps the top destinations from Wrexham General,period 2005/2010 will assist.The percentage is based on passenger increase .This is the table Aled Roberts AM used.


Top destinations from
Wrexham General
2005/2010
% increase
1
CHESTER

55%
2
LIVERPOOL

39%
3
LONDON

61%
4
SHOTTON

40%
5
MANCHESTER

46%
6
SHREWSBURY

27%
7
CARDIFF CENTRAL

44%

 

[Gareth Marston]

Is there a source for the correct figures, or is it based on anecdotes?

In any case, what's required is a decent mixed service to a variety of destinations.

Welsh Government statistics part of their website, a release in Nov 13 giving rail journeys within Wales.

 

[jones_bangor]

Welsh Government statistics part of their website, a release in Nov 13 giving rail journeys within Wales.

Can we have a link?

I've had a good look in the past and have failed to find anything of much use.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Can we have a link?

I've had a good look in the past and have failed to find anything of much use.

See post 38

 

[transmanche]

I've had a good look in the past and have failed to find anything of much use.

And even when you find the stats, you'll still fail to find anything of much use...

 

[merlodlliw]

I find the 2005/2010 statistics very useful, the extra traffic generated on the line was also a key in getting the Saltney/Rossett line dual tracked.
We may hear more about this when the Ministers staff put questions to Network Rail,she raised in her response to the debate.