I've made a couple of fairly hefty distance journeys on the bakerloo recently and whilst they are still nice to ride in I cannot see the existing stock lasting the length of time that TFL want it to.
Maybe if we get a change of prime minister before the next election there first thing will be decided that they have finished falling out with TFL and are releasing a slice of government cash to to refurbish and resignal the bakerloo and equip it with 24 stock
There is an economic limit to how much money can sensibly be thrown at patching the 1972 stock up, and like many I suspect an interim political fudge will come out of it.
Basically as currently authorised, there is new Piccadilly line trains (straight replacement for existing 87.5 trains) plus few more to increase the frequency from 24tph to 27tph. However the new signalling to allow 27 per hour isn’t fully funded. There are also unexercised options for more trains.
What I think will happen (especially as Bakerloo extension to Lewisham is unlikely until 2030s, if it ever happens) is that the extra Piccadilly trains will be diverted to Bakerloo, with a smaller Bakerloo build to complete conversion from 1972 stock.
The proposed 2024 stock versions for Bakerloo are virtually identical to those on Piccadilly, unlike the Central line versions which would be 11 section trains with different car lengths. So it would be easy to switch trains between Piccadilly and Bakerloo at quite a late stage.
Once political fighting has finished I suspect extra trains for Piccadilly will then be ordered to follow a Bakerloo line batch.
In my mind there is some commitment to more trains that isn’t being made public, because otherwise Siemens wouldn’t be continuing to build the Goole factory, it could have saved money and built whole authorised batch in Vienna.