2024 Budget impact on Rail

[Nicholas Lewis]

The chancellors speech did mention rail but it was largely a reheat of existing announcements telling us about TRU, Bolton-Wigan electrification and East West Rail although confirmed that getting to Cambridge still the goal but in short term through working to Bedford by 2030 is stated which is pretty lousy. Then we have Euston tunneling confirmed and as thats ready to go that will be denying further funding to other rail projects.

There is more detail in the budget document specifically though this section potentially illuminates that rail is still under pressure

4.72 The settlement will also support the government’s ambition to improve the performance and reliability of rail services, ensuring the rail sector can operate effectively and become financially sustainable. Since the pandemic, the government subsidy for passenger services has increased to meet a shortfall in revenue as travel patterns have changed, in addition to the funding it provides to operate and maintain the rail network. The government will look to recover this shortfall to support services and ensure the railway is able to operate effectively

Initially this is through an increase in rail fares and railcards but they go onto to say

These policies will support the Secretary of State for Transport’s plans for reform, which will increase efficiency and reduce costs, while boosting ridership and revenue and improving performance, laying the groundwork for the transition to Great British Railways.

Not sure how putting fares up nearly 5% is going to boost ridership.

More positively they have binned more road schemes beyond those cancelled earlier in the year.

Additional funds may find there way to local transport through the increased funding for City Region Sustainable Transport Settlements.

Also the Barnett formula has boosted funds to Scotland & Wales so again they may have additional headroom for transport schemes.

 

[yorksrob]

There should have been action to restrain rail fares at the very least - if not something more palatable for long suffering passengers, especially given the context of the great fuel duty giveaway bonanza.

 

[evergreenadam]

Electrification between York and Church Fenton was specifically mentioned, extraordinary!

 

[43066]

Not sure how putting fares up nearly 5% is going to boost ridership.

Presumably the expectation is that, because passenger demand appears resilient, and indeed is growing strongly, raising fares will increase revenue by more than any corresponding decrease in ridership.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Electrification between York and Church Fenton was specifically mentioned, extraordinary!

This what she said

We are today securing the delivery of the trans-Pennine upgrade to connect York, Leeds, Huddersfield and Manchester, delivering fully electric local and regional services between Manchester and Stalybridge by the end of this year, with a further electrification of services between Church Fenton and York by 2026, to help grow our economy across the north of England with faster and more reliable services.

Reheat of Tory commitments at best. Whats more farcical is Church Fenton enables TPE only and thats only the 802's which don't work all the services and still not till 2026 some 6 years after it was authorised for a measly 5 miles.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Presumably the expectation is that, because passenger demand appears resilient, and indeed is growing strongly, raising fares will increase revenue by more than any corresponding decrease in ridership.

I think LNER has sadly demonstrated that you could on some routes get away with increases far in excess of 5%. They seem, over the past few years, to have implemented an increase of around 50% on the fare increase trial route (more in some cases) and people are still travelling.

 

[The exile]

At least all the specifically mentioned transport projects to be binned are all roads - doesn't mean that any rail schemes still stuck in the pipeline (Portishead?) won't join them - but no news is (for once) good news.

 

[Paceman]

Chancellors of both parties love to re-announce rail funding as part of the budget.

 

[JonathanH]

There should have been action to restrain rail fares at the very least - if not something more palatable for long suffering passengers, especially given the context of the great fuel duty giveaway bonanza.

Even the Labour Party are pushing the line that rail users need to meet more of the costs of their travel after the money that has been spent over the last five years. The rhetoric hasn't really changed other than saying that reform and public ownership will be the solution.

 

[fishwomp]

(EWR) to Cambridge still the goal but in short term through working to Bedford by 2030 is stated which is pretty lousy.

Well, between 2025 and whenever they dig up the tracks, it will also be possible to get to Bedford.. but yes, we're well into the "decade behind" territory now.

Not sure how putting fares up nearly 5% is going to boost ridership.

By increasing congestion on the roads? Umm..

Electrification between York and Church Fenton was specifically mentioned, extraordinary!

.. and Manchester to Stalybridge in the speech .

This what she said

Reheat of Tory commitments at best. Whats more farcical is Church Fenton enables TPE only and thats only the 802's which don't work all the services and still not till 2026 some 6 years after it was authorised for a measly 5 miles.

Not a reheat. The stuff was in the oven, ready to come out and didn't need warming up.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Not a reheat. The stuff was in the oven, ready to come out and didn't need warming up.

Oh yes far more appropriate description

 

[BrianW]

Electrification between York and Church Fenton was specifically mentioned, extraordinary!

'Benefitting constituencies' were mentioned (even if indirectly) throughout the budget, demonstrating benefits 'across the nations and regions'.

IIUC, EWR not 'promised' to Cambridge?- Chancellor mentioned Oxford -Bedford

I expect (more) reforms need to be extracted before anymore undertakings. Note also GM Mayor Andy Burnham's response on R4 Today Prog re Northern cancellations of 50,000 trains!! and 'deals' for GM and WM regional 'autonomy'.

 

[dk1]

All in all a good news day for rail I feel. Just a shame Ely North Junction didn’t get a mention but I’m hopeful that’ll get announced sooner rather than later.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

More positively they have binned more road schemes beyond those cancelled earlier in the year.

Yes but no increase in fuel duty. I assume they did not want to contribute to inflation.

 

[NorthLondoner]

Does anyone know if funding for the new Bakerloo Line trains were included?

 

[43066]

Even the Labour Party are pushing the line that rail users need to meet more of the costs of their travel after the money that has been spent over the last five years. The rhetoric hasn't really changed other than saying that reform and public ownership will be the solution.

There’s also the point that fares were raised at less than the rate of inflation in recent years, so have declined in real terms.

Yes but no increase in fuel duty. I assume they did not want to contribute to inflation.

Can’t remember off the top of my head - is fuel duty included in inflation stats whereas train tickets aren’t?

 

[Magdalia]

EWR not 'promised' to Cambridge?- Chancellor mentioned Oxford -Bedford

The Budget Report says this at para 3.30:

3.30 The Budget delivers the next steps in the government’s approach to regional growth, through investment, devolution and reform. On investment, this includes: • Unlocking transformational growth in the Oxford, Milton Keynes and Cambridge corridor through £10 million of funding to enable the Cambridge Growth Company to develop an ambitious plan for the housing, transport, water, and wider infrastructure Cambridge needs to realise its full potential, and by taking the next steps to deliver East West Rail. This will support life sciences companies and unlock private investment, cementing Cambridge’s status as a globally renowned centre of excellence and its important role within the Industrial Strategy.

What was promised was the next round of consultation see para 5.171:

5.171 East West Rail consultation – East West Rail will connect Oxford, Milton Keynes and Cambridge and unlock land for housing and laboratories, supporting the wider Cambridge life sciences cluster The Budget will announce the East West Rail consultation, the next step in the project, which will be launched by the Secretary of State for Transport in November 2024.

 

[JamieL]

Great news for HS2 Euston link (although as I travel from Bristol, Old Oak works well for me personally). But what about north of Birmingham? All very well announcing East/West stuff but what about the capacity issues on the mid/northern portions of the WCML?

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Not a reheat. The stuff was in the oven, ready to come out and didn't need warming up.

Oh yes far more appropriate description

Agreed. Brilliant. I may have to plagiarize that!

 

[nanstallon]

There should have been action to restrain rail fares at the very least - if not something more palatable for long suffering passengers, especially given the context of the great fuel duty giveaway bonanza.

I agree that rail fares need to be kept down, but 'the great fuel duty giveaway bonanza' is not a bad thing. Road is the main means of transport, whether rail enthusiasts like it or not. If that is taxed even more than it is already, everything else that needs to be transported, such as food, goes up too.

 

[nwales58]

Road is the main means of transport, but of the direct user charges (VED, fuel duty) fuel duty has been falling in real terms for over a decade. So the subsidy from general taxation to roads is increasing steadily and benefits the heaviest users the most, whereas to public transport it is falling. Is that equitable? Is it compatible with CO2 reduction?

 

[Confused52]

There’s also the point that fares were raised at less than the rate of inflation in recent years, so have declined in real terms.



Can’t remember off the top of my head - is fuel duty included in inflation stats whereas train tickets aren’t?

Fuel Duty is directly included in private motoring costs and indirectly in both Bus fares and Rail Fares. This is in the definition of the CPI Shopping Basket published by ONS

 

[brad465]

Presumably this 10 year infrastructure strategy planned next Spring, alongside the Spending Review, will shed more light on what rail projects get pursued (new and existing). I don't recall many specific projects, whether rail or anything else, getting a special mention today.

 

[faltskog36abba]

Improved Capacity was mentioned for Manchester Victoria. Does this mean an additional Platform, Signaling, Or something else?.

 

[The Planner]

Improved Capacity was mentioned for Manchester Victoria. Does this mean an additional Platform, Signaling, Or something else?.

Probably loosely related to the turn back sidings which are already committed.

 

[deltic]

Can’t remember off the top of my head - is fuel duty included in inflation stats whereas train tickets aren’t?

Cost of fuel and public transport are included in inflation statistics. You would need a massive increase in the latter to make any impact on the headline inflation figure

 

[12LDA28C]

I agree that rail fares need to be kept down, but 'the great fuel duty giveaway bonanza' is not a bad thing. Road is the main means of transport, whether rail enthusiasts like it or not. If that is taxed even more than it is already, everything else that needs to be transported, such as food, goes up too.

It is bad thing. Fuel duty has been frozen for years for no apparent reason other than increasing it is unpopular with motorists. I'm a motorist and would be perfectly happy to accept an increase in fuel duty if the money generated was spent wisely.

 

[Russel]

It is bad thing. Fuel duty has been frozen for years for no apparent reason other than increasing it is unpopular with motorists. I'm a motorist and would be perfectly happy to accept an increase in fuel duty if the money generated was spent wisely.

I'm a motorist, I paid tax when I brought the car, I pay tax to use the roads, I pay tax on the fuel I put in it to get to work, where I pay tax on the money I earn...

You say you'd be happy to accept an increase, but where do we draw the line?

 

[winks]

Railcards going up by £5. Which in my opinion should remain where they are…

Rail fares in England set to rise next year https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62j7q452jro

 

[Adrian1980uk]

All in all a good news day for rail I feel. Just a shame Ely North Junction didn’t get a mention but I’m hopeful that’ll get announced sooner rather than later.

These schemes bring more benefits than the grand schemes everyone talks about (HS2 anyone). All these pinch points and increasing line speeds help existing passengers and will attract new