2024 Conservative Leadership Election

[DelW]

That's surely the Tories out of office for a decade now. Jenrick demonstrated in the Richard Desmond planning scandal that he follows the Johnson mantra of being willing to do anything, even illegally, for dodgy money. Badenoch is - well - unappealing to anyone not on the far-right idiocy spectrum. They are finished for the best part of a generation.

 

[Acfb]

Cleverly out by the looks of it from strategic voting. Big shock, and now just two unfettered wingnuts left in the race. Good news for Starmer but bad news for our politics.

A great day for the Lib Dems. Either Jenrick or Badenoch should achieve a poll lead over Labour at least in the short-medium term but might still struggle in the end.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Mmm, much as I dislike the Tories, I do not think a lack of credible oppositon to the government is good.

Neither Badenock nor Jenrick are credible opposition leaders they are political evangelists who don't represent real people and they will stoke up trouble not oppose.

 

[brad465]

Its fantastic news for our politics if it now precipitates a split in the Tory party so we get centrist right party to balance up our politics.

Mind you if a new centre-right party does emerge then that will presumably become our credible opposition.

If the Lib Dems can work out how to get more media coverage they're probably best-placed to do this, given they have both the third-highest seat tally in the Commons, plus won most of their new seats off the Tories (the rest mainly being from the SNP).

 

[Harpo]

Smells like a party thinking it’s future lies in recapturing the Reform voters and in continuing more than a decade of having chunks of its policy set by Farage.

 

[quantinghome]

Neither Badenock nor Jenrick are credible opposition leaders they are political evangelists who don't represent real people and they will stoke up trouble not oppose.

Jenrick is a political opportunist - a former Cameronite remainer who claims to have had a Damascus road conversion. Badenoch is is a true ideologue. Both bad in different ways, and both bad for the future prospects of the Conservative party... what a pity.

If the Lib Dems can work out how to get more media coverage they're probably best-placed to do this, given they have both the third-highest seat tally in the Commons, plus won most of their new seats off the Tories (the rest mainly being from the SNP).

Ture. And unlike the 2000s their seats are fairly uniform in profile, so they don't have a splintered support base.

 

[317 forever]

Its fantastic news for our politics if it now precipitates a split in the Tory party so we get centrist right party to balance up our politics.

I think we could have an exodus of Tory MPs who, once they decide to stand down, first defect to Labour or the LibDems.

A few moderate, recently defeated MPs could do that any time.

 

[Gloster]

I think we could have an exodus of Tory MPs who, once they decide to stand down, first defect to Labour or the LibDems.

A few moderate, recently defeated MPs could do that any time.

It only needs twenty-five to defect to the Liberal-Democrats and they then become the official opposition. Whereupon the party will, no doubt, start tearing themselves apart as they all try to emulate Nick Clegg’s lust for glory and become leader. Come on in, the blood’s lovely.

 

[Acfb]

It only needs twenty-five to defect to the Liberal-Democrats and they then become the official opposition. Whereupon the party will, no doubt, start tearing themselves apart as they all try to emulate Nick Clegg’s lust for glory and become leader. Come on in, the blood’s lovely.

Caroline Nokes is about the only one who I can see defecting as her seat was Lib Dem from 2000-2010 and is diametrically opposed to Kemi Badenoch on trans issues but we'll see what happens. I think Rutland and Stamford is far too safe for the Tories for Alicia Kearns to defect.

 

[edwin_m]

Looks like the Tories can't even organise a proper plot.

 

[SteveM70]

Looks like the Tories can't even organise a proper plot.

Lots of rumours swirling around that Cleverly’s team thought he would win easily and got some supporters to vote for Jenrick as they were more confident of beating him in the final than Badenoch, but they got their maths wrong and eliminated their own man

If that’s true, it’s hilarious, but the thought of whoever wins being Tory leader is anything but.

Jenrick is a nobody who changes in the wind to try and gain power and Badenoch is a properly nasty piece of work

 

[AlterEgo]

Jenrick is a nobody who changes in the wind to try and gain power and Badenoch is a properly nasty piece of work

About the sum of it. In this battle between salmonella and botulism I would have to take Jenrick as a preference. Badenoch is vile; a really repellent individual I would cross a bar to avoid.

 

[nw1]

A great day for the Lib Dems. Either Jenrick or Badenoch should achieve a poll lead over Labour at least in the short-medium term but might still struggle in the end.

Do you think that is the case? I suspect both would be far too right-wing to achieve the support of more than 30% of the population. Only Cleverly and Tugendhat, of the four, could have done that, surely.

If Jenrick/Badenoch's Tories really end up being more popular than Starmer's Labour then that would suggest that the UK has become a seriously right-wing country, full of anti-woke and anti-immigration fanatics. And with Jenrick or Badenoch as PM I can see a slide into authoritarianism.
I'd hope the British public are not silly enough to favour one of those two over Starmer.

 

[Acfb]

Do you think that is the case? I suspect both would be far too right-wing to achieve the support of more than 30% of the population. Only Cleverly and Tugendhat, of the four, could have done that, surely.

If Jenrick/Badenoch's Tories really end up being more popular than Starmer's Labour then that would suggest that the UK has become a seriously right-wing country, full of anti-woke and anti-immigration fanatics.

More because Labour is doing quite poorly (I think Starmer is a bit of a drag on the Labour brand putting policy decisions aside) and was only 1% ahead of the Tories in the latest poll, 29% to 28%.

I can see Jenrick squeezing some of the Reform vote in the Midlands, whereas Badenoch is more of an unpredictable wildcard who might score occasional hits at PMQs.

 

[nw1]

More because Labour is doing quite poorly (I think Starmer is a bit of a drag on the Labour brand putting policy decisions aside) and was only 1% ahead of the Tories in the latest poll, 29% to 28%.

Seems to be an outlier though and remember this is with Sunak still as leader of the opposition, and before Tugendhat and Cleverly were knocked out - many people could have been anticipating the latter in particular would take over.

Jenrick in particular seems to be an especially hardline, reactionary right-wing individual IMO. For example, this anti-migrant rant: https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/c...nt-lifestyles-minister-robert-jenrick-2297187

Channel migrants ‘cannibalise’ communities by importing different lifestyles, claims minister Robert Jenrick

He needs to be told that the UK is not just for people with the same cultural background as himself.

And there's this (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/pol...k-rwanda-government-immigration-b1125310.html)

Mr Jenrick, in August 2024, said protesters shouting “Allahu Akbar” should be “immediately arrested”, leading to Muslim politicians accusing the Conservative MP of “nasty divisive rhetoric” and “textbook Islamophobia”. The Arabic phrase means God is great.

All the evidence I can see is that he is a particuarly unpleasant authoritarian with what appear to be some highly prejudiced attitudes. I hate to think what sort of country we'd become if he became PM.

 

[AlterEgo]

Seems to be an outlier though and remember this is with Sunak still as leader of the opposition, and before Tugendhat and Cleverly were knocked out - many people could have been anticipating the latter in particular would take over.

Jenrick in particular seems to be an especially hardline, reactionary right-wing individual IMO. For example, this anti-migrant rant: https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/c...nt-lifestyles-minister-robert-jenrick-2297187


He needs to be told that the UK is not just for people with the same cultural background as himself.

I hate to think what sort of country we'd become if he became PM. A very right-wing, intolerant and authoritarian place, I suspect.

And there's this (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/pol...k-rwanda-government-immigration-b1125310.html)



A truly vile, nasty, obnoxious authoritarian. I think that's plain.

That is interesting and unpleasant about Jenrick. What a great competition this is between him and Badenoch in the battle to be the grimmest.

 

[nw1]

Jenrick is a nobody who changes in the wind to try and gain power

Is he though or is he a hardline right-winger? He certainly seems unafraid to utter some really nasty stuff (see above).

 

[nr758123]

The slow whittling down of this parade of grotesques has ended with a choice between the two most grotesque of all.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Is he though or is he a hardline right-winger? He certainly seems unafraid to utter some really nasty stuff (see above).

This goes to party members now and we know what their track record is when faced with an ethnicity choice.

 

[Harpo]

I’m guessing that the Mail, Express and Telegraph will portray this as a great choice.

 

[DIW]

Caroline Nokes is about the only one who I can see defecting as her seat was Lib Dem from 2000-2010 and is diametrically opposed to Kemi Badenoch on trans issues but we'll see what happens. I think Rutland and Stamford is far too safe for the Tories for Alicia Kearns to defect.

Nokes' ambitions lie towards the opportunity to being returned unopposed; she has taken the first step by accepting an invitation to join the Deputy Speakers.

 

[Shrop]

This result has all the appearance of tactical voting by some, combined with failed tactical voting by others, ie. forms of dishonesty and negativity. What sort of a country are we in, where these things feature so heavily in the way the country is run?

 

[dangie]

Robert Jenrick vs Kemi Badenoch

How he hell has UK politics come down to two people who couldn’t even win an argument in a pub?

….. and no, we never talk politics in the pub……

 

[nw1]

Nokes' ambitions lie towards the opportunity to being returned unopposed; she has taken the first step by accepting an invitation to join the Deputy Speakers.

There does seem something not quite right about depriving the electorate of a constituency to select their preferred candidate. I do wonder whether the Speaker system needs to be changed, so that the Speaker/Deputy Speakers are non-MPs (e.g. recent former MPs).

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

This result has all the appearance of tactical voting by some, combined with failed tactical voting by others, ie. forms of dishonesty and negativity. What sort of a country are we in, where these things feature so heavily in the way the country is run?

Indeed a perfect definition of a Tory

 

[aavm]

Given the open goal Stammer left them recently, not impressed with any of the contenders.

We can all hope Kemi can be the next Maggie.

 

[edwin_m]

About the sum of it. In this battle between salmonella and botulism I would have to take Jenrick as a preference. Badenoch is vile; a really repellent individual I would cross a bar to avoid.

It's possible Jenrick is just playing to the gallery, which at the moment means fire and brimstone, and if he becomes leader and the wind starts blowing that way he might swing back towards his previous more centrist persona. Badenoch, by contrast, seems to be firmly fixed to the extreme right end of the spectrum.

 

[Purple Train]

Seems to be an outlier though and remember this is with Sunak still as leader of the opposition, and before Tugendhat and Cleverly were knocked out - many people could have been anticipating the latter in particular would take over.

Jenrick in particular seems to be an especially hardline, reactionary right-wing individual IMO. For example, this anti-migrant rant: https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/c...nt-lifestyles-minister-robert-jenrick-2297187


He needs to be told that the UK is not just for people with the same cultural background as himself.

And there's this (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/pol...k-rwanda-government-immigration-b1125310.html)



All the evidence I can see is that he is a particuarly unpleasant authoritarian with what appear to be some highly prejudiced attitudes. I hate to think what sort of country we'd become if he became PM.

It may make you dislike him and his party all the more, but not the hard of thinking - and they are exactly the kind of people who will have turned away from Starmer this early.

The key to politics is who can tell the cleverest lies. Jenrick is in exactly the kind of mould of someone who can exploit that.

 

[SteveM70]

Is he though or is he a hardline right-winger? He certainly seems unafraid to utter some really nasty stuff (see above).

Jenrick was an ardent remainer only 8 years ago. Quite the conversion from that to wanting to leave the ECHR

 

[nw1]

Given the open goal Stammer left them recently, not impressed with any of the contenders.

We can all hope Kemi can be the next Maggie.

Or not. The last thing the country needs now is another Maggie Thatcher (or more accurately, a cross between Thatcher and Nigel Farage). God help us in the 2030s if we get that.

Jenrick was an ardent remainer only 8 years ago. Quite the conversion from that to wanting to leave the ECHR

Still doesn't make him look good, though. Someone who seems to be quite happy to make (IMO) xenophobic and Islamophobic utterances when he might not even believe them. A cheap and nasty Liz Truss knock-off?