2024 Conservative Leadership Election

[brad465]

So today is the day we finally find out the result. I certainly think the contest was less dramatic as a whole than many expected, however it definitely had the shock of Cleverly being eliminated after what's believed to be a tactical vote cock-up.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

So today is the day we finally find out the result. I certainly think the contest was less dramatic as a whole than many expected, however it definitely had the shock of Cleverly being eliminated after what's believed to be a tactical vote cock-up.

Badenock comprehensively wins.

 

[jfollows]

131,680 eligible electors, 72.8% of whom voted
53,806 votes for KB (57%)
41,388 votes for RJ (43%)
655 rejected ballots
66,288 online votes
29,621 postal votes

There were ~3 million Conservative party members in 1950, ~1 million in 1980.

https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05125/SN05125.pdf

Unlike the last election, it’s not all that important, neither will be prime minister anyway. But it’s a very small electorate now. Mainly old, white, middle-class men (like me, although I’m not a member).

 

[Horizon22]

Labour are going to love this. Tory membership is generally quite far detatched from the average Tory voter and Badenoch's "cultural wars" and "anti-woke agenda" is hardly going to be well recieved by the sort of voter they need to gain back (i.e moderates who voted for Cameron in 2010).

Badenock comprehensively wins.

56% isn't that comprehensive, although reasonably comfortable.

 

[jfollows]

56% isn't that comprehensive, although reasonably comfortable.

Interestingly similar to the 59% vote on this thread.

David Cameron won with 68%
Boris Johnson 66%
Iain Duncan Smith 61%
Liz Truss 57%

So basically the same percentage as voted for Liz Truss over Rishi Sunak. But that was 81,236 votes over 60,399. Many more people (nearly 8,000) voted for Rishi then - who lost - than for Kemi Badenoch this time.

 

[dangie]

131,680 eligible electors, 72.8% of whom voted

I find it interesting that most people who are members of a political party do have some interest in politics, so I think that only 72.8% voted quite a low figure.

Having said that, there may be quite a few who really don’t care a toss about politics, but joined simply to get cheap drinks at the local Conservative Club

 

[SteveM70]

Another split vote. And she’s preaching unity. Good luck with that

 

[dosxuk]

I find it interesting that most people who are members of a political party do have some interest in politics, so I think that only 72.8% voted quite a low figure.

There is a significant part of the Tory party who were unhappy with both candidates. There's a good chance we see a split in the not too distant future.

 

[JonathanH]

There's a good chance we see a split in the not too distant future.

Any political party only works as a coalition of different views. The two sides have to work together to get anywhere. They don't really have a choice.

 

[nlogax]

Result is just where I thought it'd go. The two remaining candidates did also confirm the wider situation that the lunatics will be running the asylum.

At which point will we see the splittting off and forming of the Conservative and Reform party? This will make the drama of multiple versions of 80s band Bucks Fizz look insipid. (well to be fair it was anyway).

 

[OhNoAPacer]

As regards potential problems for Kemi Badenoch arising from the Conservative MPs it needs to be remembered that due to their relatively small number it only takes 18 letters to trigger a vote of confidence.

 

[Gloster]

I suspect that this may be Labour’s preferred result, if they have one other than ‘continued internal fighting in the Conservative Party’. Badenoch has a reputation for coming out with wild claims and statements, and then being reluctant to correct herself and sulking when forced to. She might manage to curb this habit, but it is more likely (in my opinion) that she will find herself being told off by the Speaker and so being less effective on the floor of the House, and getting into an argument the Speaker is not a good idea. Jenrick, though he is s***y little t**d in my opinion, would probably have been more effective.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I would argue that Starmer is slightly right of center and Badenoch most certainly is very right. So either way, British politics has moved to the right. I think she will fight the next election but will not win it.

 

[dangie]

Any political party only works as a coalition of different views. The two sides have to work together to get anywhere. They don't really have a choice.

That is the problem with politics as a whole. There’s multiple sides. No side will agree with the other. Face to face they may show some (false) signs of agreement, but behind backs it’s anything but.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I would argue that Starmer is slightly right of center and Badenoch most certainly is very right. So either way, British politics has moved to the right. I think she will fight the next election but will not win it.

It doesn't take many Tories to force a leadership challenge though so if she doesn't produce a poll improvement she could easily be moved on as there more than enough Cleverly supporters.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

It doesn't take many Tories to force a leadership challenge though so if she doesn't produce a poll improvement she could easily be moved on as there more than enough Cleverly supporters.

Possibly.

 

[Acfb]

Possibly.

The no confidence rules have just been changed so it takes 41 instead of 18 Conservative MPs to trigger a contest so she might not have to do particularly well to last to the election (just achieve a narrow poll lead over Labour and not bomb like Truss which should be easy). I think her main issues will be with other Conservative MPs, particularly Jenrick and his supporters.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The no confidence rules have just been changed so it takes 41 instead of 18 Conservative MPs to trigger a contest so she might not have to do particularly well to last to the election (just achieve a narrow poll lead over Labour and not bomb like Truss which should be easy). I think her main issues will be with other Conservative MPs, particularly Jenrick and his supporters.

All that infighting is a beautiful gift to Labour and the Liberal Democrats

 

[OhNoAPacer]

The no confidence rules have just been changed so it takes 41 instead of 18 Conservative MPs to trigger a contest so she might not have to do particularly well to last to the election (just achieve a narrow poll lead over Labour and not bomb like Truss which should be easy). I think her main issues will be with other Conservative MPs, particularly Jenrick and his supporters.

I hadn't spotted that rule change.

 

[43096]

Jenrick, though he is s***y little t**d in my opinion, would probably have been more effective.

Michael Gove is right about Jenrick. He really is Harry Enfield's Tory Boy!

 

[317 forever]

There is a significant part of the Tory party who were unhappy with both candidates. There's a good chance we see a split in the not too distant future.

Indeed, having both final candidates a genuine right-winger and a more tactical right-winger may well have alienated a not insignificant share of the votership and deterred them from even voting.

 

[aavm]

What is it now, 4th female & 2nd non-white leader. Some of the other, lets say more traditional, parties have some catching up to do

Glad it was her, really didn't like the other guy.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

All that infighting is a beautiful gift to Labour and the Liberal Democrats

Indeed i hope the cycle is turning and the Liberal Democrats become the effective opposition and contenders for the mantle

 

[SteveM70]

What is it now, 4th female & 2nd non-white leader. Some of the other, lets say more traditional, parties have some catching up to do

Glad it was her, really didn't like the other guy.

If ever there was a case of being the tallest dwarf, its preferring Badenoch to Jenrick

 

[brad465]

What is it now, 4th female & 2nd non-white leader. Some of the other, lets say more traditional, parties have some catching up to do

Glad it was her, really didn't like the other guy.

Diversity attitudes seem to be an area filled with hypocrisy among the political class; while it will be present everywhere, the Tories are where it's most visible. They happily promote the diversity of the party leaders they've had in their history and put down other parties for apparent lack of it. However when it comes to identity politics/diversity policy in general, they make arguments like "I prefer they appoint/award the best person for the job, regardless of ethnicity/sex/background", and/or "the civil service/NHS/BBC could save money not appointing diversity officers".

If I was to assess all the Tory party leaders who were not white males, the only one who I'd argue had a good degree of competency was Thatcher, considering her long premiership, electoral success and some other policy areas (even though there are plenty of other policies she's rightly loathed for). May was weak and incompetent, Truss was, well, no explanation needed there, while Sunak was also weak and very poor at finding the right advice, with the worst ever election result for the Tories to his name. Of course Boris Johnson also shows that being a white male does not on its own make one good for the job either.

While talking about diversity policy, perhaps it's a good time to recall this Yes Minister Classic:

 

[AlterEgo]

What is it now, 4th female & 2nd non-white leader. Some of the other, lets say more traditional, parties have some catching up to do

Glad it was her, really didn't like the other guy.

Yes, it really does make a difference when the transphobia comes from a black woman. What progress!

 

[jfollows]

I find it interesting that most people who are members of a political party do have some interest in politics, so I think that only 72.8% voted quite a low figure.

Having said that, there may be quite a few who really don’t care a toss about politics, but joined simply to get cheap drinks at the local Conservative Club

82.6% of 172,437 voted in the previous - Truss/Sunak - contest. So ~40,000 fewer eligible voters/members since 2022.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

82.6% of 172,437 voted in the previous - Truss/Sunak - contest. So ~40,000 fewer eligible voters/members since 2022.

I see a slow death of the conservative party.

 

[Magdalia]

I see a slow death of the conservative party.

I have seen an estimate that more than 15% of the people who voted Conservative in 2024 will die before the next General Election.

 

[ChrisC]

I have seen an estimate that more than 15% of the people who voted Conservative in 2024 will die before the next General Election.

What about all the people who didn’t vote Conservative? If in 5 years time Labour are extremely unpopular, who will they vote for? Lib Dem, Reform, or will they return to the Conservatives?