You posted a link which indicates around 5 to 6 million additional people in England were infected from end of september to mid-january. That is consistent with 8 million new infections throughout the UK from end of September up to now, which is consistent with the 4 million cases recorded by the government testing system from end of September up to now, assuming it is only picking up half of all infections.
Again, if you read my posts you'll see I never claimed a 2% infection fatality rate. I said that the covid dashboard data gives a recorded deaths to recorded cases ratio of 2%, for the period starting at the end of September up to the present. I then said that the recorded cases would certainly be an underestimate of total infections, probably picking up only around half of cases, so the fatality rate would be more like 1%. This is consistent with the Imperial College paper I referenced.
Agreement at last. Yes, the testing regime didn't pick up anything close to the actual number of infections until the autumn when it had scaled up sufficiently.
Any evidence for this?
There have been estimates that the cost of covid restrictions are at £300 billion, possibly way higher. The 2019-2020 budget for the whole NHS was £141 billion. And there have been an estimated 4.5 million cancelled operations, procedures etc, not to mention as yet unidentified incidents of serious illnesses whose diagnoses have been effectively delayed.
OK we'll argue over 1% not 2%; it's going to be far less than 1%.
But still a huge underestimate in Autumn in my opinion.
It is only since schools went back that we have had a really huge increase in testing. It's noticeable that the rate of decrease in cases slowed when testing capacity was massively increased. At the end of the day, neither of us knows what proportion of cases are being picked up, but it is clear to me that it started as an absolutely tiny percentage and has been increasing ever since.
Yes by people who are pro-restrictions! Those of us who are better informed are at the end of our tethers dealing with scaremongering from vaccine effectiveness deniers and others who seek to restrict our lives for an indeterminable length of time.
Are you denying the effectiveness of the vaccines?
Are you making the false claim that hospitals could become overwhelmed any time soon? Given the incredible rate of vaccination, and the high take up, I can only assume you are denying the effectiveness of vaccines? If so, I would have to question why this is?
I agree this is a huge concern, but pro-restriction authoritariains just sweep such concerns under the carpet. There is no reasoning with them whatsoever.
And this will only be the tip of the iceberg, I' sure there will be many more. In fact I recently read somewhere that the NSPCC had seen a huge rise in contact from children, which is very, very worrying indeed.
School closures were absolutely scandalous and very damaging for children. I have a dim view of anyone who thought that was a good idea. Things are much better now but there are still many limitations on children which continues to affect their development and both physical and mental wellbeing.
I totally agree, and I have taken just such a stance on my social media feed (I remain somewhat more reserved here, seriously!!
).
Or those who are pro restriction will instead go on saying how half the population have had a great time over the last year baking sourdough bread or listening to the birds sing!
The BBC are now (amazingly) giving coverage to this report:
When you said things like "Any risk to seeing an increase in infection rate also increases the number of people requiring hospitalisation" it was not clear you were referring to the past tense!
When you said things like "Any risk to seeing an increase in infection rate also increases the number of people requiring hospitalisation" it was not clear you were referring to the past tense!
I am glad to hear that you no longer believe this statement you made to be true at this point!
Given your correction and your clarification that you agree with me that the vaccines are highly effective and there is no need for such draconian measures to be rescinded, I am glad to accept you are not denying the effectiveness of vaccines and relieved to hear it
My recommendation in future is that if you no longer believe something to be true, it is best to use the past tense, and that would avoid talking at cross purposes
How many more untold stories like this are there? Think of this when you are encouraging long restrictions and enjoying your selective lockdown where you can still get the things you need and to hell with others.
Speedo Mick tells of lockdown depression battle
Speedo Mick tells of lockdown depression battleClose
Mick Cullen walked from Land's End to John o' Groats raising hundreds of thousands of pounds for charity.
But when the pandemic struck he found himself facing a new battle. He spoke to BBC Breakfast about seeking help for depression during lockdown.
Speedo Mick tells of lockdown depression battle
After finishing an epic walk for charity, Mick Cullen found himself facing a fresh challenge.www.bbc.co.uk
I would argue that the media have exacerbated the mental health situation with their wall-to-wall reporting of sensationalist and depressing stories (on top of depression caused by restrictions).
The cost of the restrictions, which is what we are talking about here have already been incurred in either paying people not to work, businesses to close and of course lost tax revenue. Those costs will have to be manged in the coming years, not decades. And that's before we factor in the cost of treatments, vaccines, and of course testing on a mass scale, or any restrictions post Spring.
