22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[duncanp]

I'm not really too bothered by track and trace existing, but I don't think it's a good idea for it to be mandatory to follow their instructions. I think if it increases public confidence to have it around, track and trace should be retained for a reasonably long time, but with the legal requirement to isolate if told removed.

I think I'd rather retain social distancing than masks. I get the argument that social distancing prevents theatre and live sporting events from happening, but do people really want to sit through a 2 hour performance in a mask? No!
I find keeping away from others an awful lot more natural than wearing a mask.

Of course there are other cases where social distancing might not be possible - lifts in shopping centres, for example.
I'd like the rules to be entirely "masks are required in any indoor area where you cannot reasonably allow 1 to 2 metres between each person", but I can't think of a way to stop business owners not even trying to implement social distancing and just insisting on masks because it's easier.



I strongly disagree with prioritising pubs over other entertainment.

If pubs open in April/May, then I would want restaurants, cinemas, amusement arcades, sports centres and so on open as well. And - crucially - non-essential use of public transport.

Not everybody's idea of a nice day out is to get in a car and go to the pub, and not everyone has the money to do so.

When I mentioned pubs, I really meant to include the whole of the hospitality and leisure sector, such as restaurants, leisure centres, swimming pools and tourist attractions such as heritage railways.

When I mentioned pubs reopening in April under restrictions similar to Tier 2, I didn't mean that they should be prioritised over other parts of the leisure sector.

If anything pubs and restaurants complement other leisure facilities, because a family might want to go and visit a theme park, cinema or heritage railway, and then go to a pub or a restaurant for something to eat and drink afterwards. For this reason, they should not be unduly penalised by being kept closed for significantly longer than other leisure activities.

I remember going for several walks in May and June last year after the stay at home message was dropped, and would have loved to go to a pub afterwards.

 

[6862]

What is being published next Monday is a roadmap out of lockdown (or so we are led to believe) and without giving a least a rough indication of when these activities might resume, or the conditions that need to be met for these activities to resume, then it is a roadmap out of lockdown in name only.

It's a roadmap in name only, that's for certain. I'm sure the government aren't too worried about having to stick to it or being held to account as they know they can just wheel out some new mutation or scary statistics at any point to get the whole thing postponed.

 

[Bishopstone]

Primary schools - March 8th

Meet a friend for coffee in an outdoor public space - March 8th

Secondary schools and FE - March 15th

End of ‘Stay at Home’; non-essential retail; most personal care; gyms and leisure facilities; unlicensed premises for eat-ins, subject to social distancing; museums and galleries; holidaying within England in household groups only; indoor mixing of 2 households/bubbles - April 12th

Pubs and restaurants, for table service; cinema and theatres; household mixing rules loosened; spectator sport, subject to restrictions; holidaying outside household groups - May 10th

Higher Education - autumn term

Nightclubs and bar service in pubs - October

End of mandatory masks on public transport and in shops etc - spring 2022

 

[Class 33]

I think I'd rather retain social distancing than masks. I get the argument that social distancing prevents theatre and live sporting events from happening, but do people really want to sit through a 2 hour performance in a mask? No!
I find keeping away from others an awful lot more natural than wearing a mask.

Of course there are other cases where social distancing might not be possible - lifts in shopping centres, for example.
I'd like the rules to be entirely "masks are required in any indoor area where you cannot reasonably allow 1 to 2 metres between each person", but I can't think of a way to stop business owners not even trying to implement social distancing and just insisting on masks because it's easier.

Both social distancing AND masks really needs to completely go pretty soon now. The effects of these measures on hospitality businesses is enormous. For many it is just completely financially unviable to run their businesses with these ridiculous measures. And as you say, for the likes of theatres, live sporting events and festivals it's just completely impossible. And whilst the social distancing nonsense still drags on, it is near impossible for the unemployed to get back to work. I've been unemployed over a year now, and I want to get back to work asap. But I'm not expecting that to happen until at least this social distancing nonsense is finally scrapped. I don't want to end up being unemployed for another 6 months, 9 months or even another year plus.

There's just a hell of a lot more to social distancing than just staying 1 or 2 metres away from other people.

As for wearing face mask in a theatre for 2 hours odd or even 3 hours odd, yes I expect very few people will want to do that. And many theatres will be unable to survive. So face mask laws really needs to be dropped pretty soon.

Johnson and his government really need to get a move on in getting these extremely damaging measures scrapped within the next few months really.

If both of these measures still drag on with no end in sight, then what an earth is the point of all these millions of vaccinations? We were told by Johnson and other ministers that "These vaccines are our way out of all these restrictions." and "We are on the final stretch to normality returning now." and "Everyone's going to have a fantastic summer, doing what they all enjoy again.".

 

[duncanp]

It's a roadmap in name only, that's for certain. I'm sure the government aren't too worried about having to stick to it or being held to account as they know they can just wheel out some new mutation or scary statistics at any point to get the whole thing postponed.

Whilst the government is not obliged to stick to the dates in the roadmap and can delay any reopenings, there is also nothing to say that the government cannot open things earlier than specified if they want to. I am sure they can concoct some suitable data to justify whatever they want to do.

 

[chris11256]

Once the vulnerable have been vaccinated, who cares about case numbers.

I agree, but aparantly Boris thinks that higher case numbers mean we'll get a new varient and it'll feedback to the vulnerable, killing those who aren't protected.

 

[Yew]

Back to normal before easter. We were promised we could 'have our Christmas at Easter', and I can see no good reason to let Boris ignore another promise.

I agree, but aparantly Boris thinks that higher case numbers mean we'll get a new varient and it'll feedback to the vulnerable, killing those who aren't protected.

We're not doing this to prevent a few pensioners from dying from a seasonal respiratory virus, we're doing this to prevent the Hospitals being overwhelmed. If you want to continue to sacrifice yourself to try the former; go ahead, but don't expect me to join you.

 

[chris11256]

Back to normal before easter. We were promised we could 'have our Christmas at Easter', and I can see no good reason to let Boris ignore another promise.


We're not doing this to prevent a few pensioners from dying from a seasonal respiratory virus, we're doing this to prevent the Hospitals being overwhelmed. If you want to continue to sacrifice yourself to try the former; go ahead, but don't expect me to join you.

Exactly, I'm concerned that scientists and the government have been gradually moving the goalposts with all of this. As a result I don't have much faith in Mondays roadmap at all, no doubt it'll all change or the government will panic itself into another lockdown.

 

[Tezza1978]

I mentioned St George's Day as a reopening date for indoor hopsitality elsewhere on these forums, so perhaps it might happen.

The cynic in me also suspects that some of the dates in the roadmap might be deliberately later than the most likely date, in order that Boris Johnson can magically pull a rabbit out of the hat and announce something like "..due to the excellent progress in the roll out of the vaccine we can bring forward the reopening date for <insert setting of your choice> from <old date> to <new date>". Boris Johnson is wary of "over promising and under delivering" so the roadmap, or at least the version which is published, might be set up to enable him to "under promise and over deliver".

I wouldn't be in the least surprised, for example, to see the progress of the vaccine rollout amongst categories 5 - 9 being used as an excuse to make an announcement of a confirmed date for the reopening of indoor hospitality shortly after Easter, with the reopening date set for somewhere between St George's Day and the date of the local elections. No doubt suitable "data" will magically emerge just at the right moment to facilitate this.

My expectation is the following:-

• Schools will reopen on March 8th, possibly on a part time basis at first.
• Non essential retail at the end of March. Hymn singing in church might be allowed from Easter Sunday.
• Outdoor hospitality, gyms and leisure centres from the Easter weekend
• Indoor hospitality from the end of April or during the first half of May, with a confirmed date given before the local elections for political reasons.
• Some easing of the restrictions on household mixing towards the end of March.

As for international travel, I would expect restrictions to be eased once the majority of adults have had at least their first vaccination. The government won't want to be see to allow the over 50s to jet off to the sun after Easter, whilst unvaccinated younger people are confined to staying in the UK. When international travel is allowed will also depend on negotiations with other countries, particularly the countries in the Schengen zone. There is no point the government allowing us to travel abroad if other countries won't let us in.

Masks and social distancing probably won't be scrapped fully until enough adults have had two doses of the vaccine for herd immunity to set in. This is more likely to happen later in the summer, say around July or August, but that is not to say that the restrictions will not be progressivley loosened before then. It is correct that the scientists are fighting tooth and nail for these restrictions to be retained "for some time to come", and they are leaking scary stories about "possible" new variants spreading amongst unvaccinated people, with these variants "possibly" being resistant to existing vaccines.

This pretty much sums up my view on what will happen too. Though I think schools will be full time, but a staggered start from March 8th. Think indoor hospitality will have to open prior to the first May bank holiday. There is a massive amount of expectation management going on, after the rumours of pubs opening outdoors by Easter the government has moved swiftly to damp this down, even though its still a realistic possibility.

The press conference yesterday showed this too - all 3 of them were desperate not to comment on the effect that the vaccine is having and after heavy questioning grudgingly admitted that "early data looks good but still too soon blah blah...." Plus Johnson's exhortations that cases were still "very high!" despite them being the lowest for 5 months.

The social distancing needs to be scrapped this summer (possibly mid to late July) otherwise a subset of scientists/the more hysterical will demand it stays in place until next Spring, which would be catastrophic for business and the economy. Rapid testing will help get nightclubs/festivals/full football stadiums back, but its not feasible for pubs and restaurants to use them to get capacity back to normal.

 

[Tomp94]

Anyone noticed the latest scare tactic to keep restrictions indefinitely, “new variants”, something that happens naturally to every single virus!

So there you have it folks, the vaccines aren’t the way out of this shambles, life won’t be returning to 2019 normal, and politicians have given the excuse they needed to keep control of your life forever.


My workplace needs parties this summer, not necessarily large ones, but they’re needed.

 

[Peter0124]

Strict lockdown rule is set to be lifted by Boris Johnson

The UK Prime Minister will end tough restrictions next month that mean people can only leave their homes for work, exercise or to buy essentials.

www.dailymail.co.uk

If the stay at home message goes in March, does this mean that non essential travel will just become guidance and be advised against, but we will actually be allowed to do it?

 

[Watershed]

If the stay at home message goes in March, does this mean that non essential travel will just become guidance and be advised against, but we will actually be allowed to do it?

The guidance has consistently gone well beyond the law in what it pretends to "ban". Particularly in terms of messaging from some TOCs - but notably not those in the southeast, where taking the train is a part of daily life for a much greater proportion of people.

I would be very surprised if this time around is any different to what happened last summer. Recall that TfW continued claiming that you must only undertake "essential" travel, months after any such legal restrictions (particularly in the English part of their network) were lifted.

 

[PeterC]

Personally I would like to see business as normal back by late May as I usually see a lot of friends from other parts of the country at an event during the bank holiday weekend but I fear that that is unduly optimistic.

I think that setting dates is dangerous and the best guides are case rates, hospital admissions and vaccine roll-out.

 

[initiation]

I am hoping for some level of detail when all mandatory restrictions are to be removed. Masks and social distancing I imagine will be the last but unlike last year where the tiers had no 'normal' tier, we must have a commitment to remove all mandatory restrictions.

Personally I would do that by Easter but I know that isn't going to happen so my prediction is schools 8th March, retail around the 23rd (lockdown anniversary), outdoor dining/pubs will reopen 'at easter' (in reality meaning just after the easter bank holiday), we will have tier 1 equivilant restrictions on meeting people in May. Depressing but what can we do.

I think that setting dates is dangerous and the best guides are case rates, hospital admissions and vaccine roll-out.

The middle one I can acknowledge but why cases? If the vulnerable have been vaccinated and cases are circulating but only produce mild illness (if any) in the vast majority of poeple then why should this be a factor in not restoring basic freedoms.

 

[kristiang85]

I think that setting dates is dangerous and the best guides are case rates, hospital admissions and vaccine roll-out.

The main reservation I have with using data and metrics as the catalyst for removing restrictions is that these become permanent - and then that opens the gates for whenever the NHS reaches X capacity for any cause in the winter, suddenly the tool is there for us to be locked down again.

I would hope that we have an exit date for this then anti-lockdown legislation enshrined in law that we can only go back into such conditions in times of critical national emergency and it is fully debated in parliament. And protecting the government from neglecting their duties on shoring up the health service to cope with preditctable disease outbreaks (let's face it, this had been predicted for years, and was even less serious than most of these predictions) is not a reason to go into lockdown, according to this legistlation that should be brought in.

 

[Class 33]

The middle one I can acknowledge but why cases? If the vulnerable have been vaccinated and cases are circulating but only produce mild illness (if any) in the vast majority of poeple then why should this be a factor in not restoring basic freedoms.

Indeed. There will probably come a time within just the next few months when the numbers of new cases could be as high as something like 30,000 or whatever, but yet the hospital admissions, numbers in hospital and deaths could well all be under 100. And by then there will just be no valid justifications for all these ridiculous restrictions to continue any longer. If the government keep fixating on numbers of new cases but not taking into account all the other stats, then we'll never get out of all this.

 

[Bikeman78]

I am hoping for some level of detail when all mandatory restrictions are to be removed. Masks and social distancing I imagine will be the last but unlike last year where the tiers had no 'normal' tier, we must have a commitment to remove all mandatory restrictions.

As I said upthread, I don't envisage any good news about masks. Strangely we managed the whole of last summer in Wales without them being required anywhere other than on public transport. That was with no vaccine but I bet they will be mandatory throughout this summer.

 

[kristiang85]

Indeed. There will probably come a time within just the next few months when the numbers of new cases could be as high as something like 30,000 or whatever, but yet the hospital admissions, numbers in hospital and deaths could well all be under 100. And by then there will just be no valid justifications for all these ridiculous restrictions to continue any longer. If the government keep fixating on numbers of new cases but not taking into account all the other stats, then we'll never get out of all this.

I personally would hope we aren't wasting money on asymptomatic PCR testing once the vaccination programme is over - that money is better spent elsewhere in the health service.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Exactly, I'm concerned that scientists and the government have been gradually moving the goalposts with all of this. As a result I don't have much faith in Mondays roadmap at all, no doubt it'll all change or the government will panic itself into another lockdown.

Nothing gradual about it its blatant and was on full display last night with the goalposts moved again and a load of scientist wheeled out across the media to basically tell us 2021 is write off. My fear is with vaccination going well and probably better than they thought it could they've now convinced themselves that zero covid is a viable goal. All fine and dandy but they are disregarding the extreme collateral damage its creating and ignoring the legacy that will need to dealt with. The only person that can change this now is Sunak digging his heels and saying enough is enough otherwise all best are off as to having an economy that can support the NHS to do anything other than the basics.

 

[MikeWM]

Anyone noticed the latest scare tactic to keep restrictions indefinitely, “new variants”, something that happens naturally to every single virus!

So there you have it folks, the vaccines aren’t the way out of this shambles, life won’t be returning to 2019 normal, and politicians have given the excuse they needed to keep control of your life forever.

Basically, yes. The argument now appears to be not only that we have to watch out for these 'new variants' but we have to keep case numbers as low as possible, forever, in order to minimise the risk of such a thing happening because there is some chance or other that some variant or other may be problematic.

So the goalposts have effectively been moved to Mars or thereabouts.

Freedom is inconvenient for politicians, and they've found a very neat way to abolish it. And we'll line up and applaud it and ask for even more to be taken away, it seems.

Even here, we're all debating what freedoms our leaders may kindly and conditionally give us back, and when they may get around to it. We need to 'take back control' (to coin a phrase), or we're not getting back what is rightfully ours. Ever.

 

[Yew]

but we have to keep case numbers as low as possible, forever, in order to minimise the risk of such a thing happening because there is some chance or other that some variant or other may be problematic.

Ironically, I'm fairly sure that limiting spread, causes the cases to be spread out over more 'generations' of the virus, and hence actually increases the chance of dangerous mutations.

 

[6862]

Even here, we're all debating what freedoms our leaders may kindly and conditionally give us back, and when they may get around to it. We need to 'take back control' (to coin a phrase), or we're not getting back what is rightfully ours. Ever.

Freedom is gone, and it's now a distant memory. It won't come back. We (along with much of western Europe and Australasia) are heading into a dark era of authoritarian regimes which won't be letting go of their stranglehold on the population any time soon.

 

[MikeWM]

Ironically, I'm fairly sure that limiting spread, causes the cases to be spread out over more 'generations' of the virus, and hence actually increases the chance of dangerous mutations.

I'm not an epidemologist, but I agree that seems likely.

It also seems likely that limited spread results in already-existing 'bad' strains continuing to hold the upper hand over less severe existing strains, because in normal circumstances the latter would spread more and become more dominant.

Of course, given none of the NPIs we're tried seem to have much (if any) effect at all, and in some cases (ie. masks) seem increasingly likely to actually increase spread, maybe that doesn't matter.

Freedom is gone, and it's now a distant memory. It won't come back. We (along with much of western Europe and Australasia) are heading into a dark era of authoritarian regimes which won't be letting go of their stranglehold on the population any time soon.

I suspect it won't come back if we sit around waiting to be told what freedoms we're kindly going to be allowed again, and what conditions we have to follow in order to 'enjoy' them. If history has taught us one thing, it is that people who take power are unlikely to give it back willingly.

But the society we live in is up to us to shape.

 

[6862]

It alms likely that limited spread results in already-existing 'bad' strains continuing to hold the upper hand over less severe existing strains, because in normal circumstances the latter would spread more and become more dominan
Of curse, given none of the NPIs we're tried seem to have much (if any) effect at all, and in some cases (ie. masks) seem increasingly likely to actually
I suspect it won't come back if we sit around waiting to be told what freedoms we're kindly going to be allowed again, and what conditions we have to follow in order to 'enjoy' them. If history has taught us one thing, it is that people who take power are unlikely to give it back willingly.

But the society we live in is up to us to shape.

How can we influence society to stop it going down the route of an authoritarian dictatorship? There really isn't much we can do.

 

[NorthOxonian]

How can we influence society to stop it going down the route of an authoritarian dictatorship? There really isn't much we can do.

We still have a democracy, though of course most parties seem to completely agree with the current plan (and the few that don't tend to have "interesting" views on other issues). The local elections in May look set to go ahead and if there isn't significant easing by then I'd expect establishment parties to get a bloody nose. I can see independent candidates being particularly successful.

 

[MikeWM]

How can we influence society to stop it going down the route of an authoritarian dictatorship? There really isn't much we can do.

I really don't know. If I had any particularly good ideas I'd be doing them already :-/ Clearly logic and argument aren't themselves going to be sufficient.

I don't think the future you see is inevitable, but it isn't hard to see the destination of the path we are currently on.

I still think there is a chance we'll see some sort of tipping point and people saying 'enough' - like the Liverpool gym owners, but en masse. Without that I'm not sure there is a way off the current path.

Anyway (to come back to the topic at hand!) the 'roadmap' may provide an impetus for people to realise 'hang on, why isn't there an exit strategy anymore'?

 

[kristiang85]

I think there will be a tipping point where we will see the kind of demonstrations we saw for, e.g. the Iraq war or tuition fees. Too many people in the country are not COVID zealots for it not to happen, especially once the government tries one too many times to move the goalposts. If we get to the summer and people still can't see the people they want to see or do the things they've been patiently waiting to do, and the vaccination programme continues being a success, the camel's back will break at some point.

 

[Class 33]

The hospital numbers and deaths will very soon be very low. And it's going to be very hard for the government to justify these restrictions continuing any longer. It's going to be absolutely ridiculous if say in June and there still being Downing Street News Conferences, and Johnson or Whitty whoever saying something along the likes of "Today's deaths is 10, we've had 15 hospital admissions, and the numbers in hospital with Coronavirus right now is 47......". And going on to say "We must still keep social distancing, we must still keep wearing face masks. It's too early to say when these restrictions can be lifted. We must still keep protecting the NHS and saving lives."!!!!

The numbers are only heading in one direction right now, and that's down. All these restrictions will have to be progressively eased over the next 3 to 4 months, or 5 months absolute maximum. If things don't pan out that way and they're still dragging all these unecessary DAMAGING restrictions, it will be absolutely ridiculous beyond belief. As mentioned Johnson and other ministers have told us "These vaccines are our way out of all these restrictions.". They had better not be stringing us along!

 

[NorthOxonian]

The hospital numbers and deaths will very soon be very low. And it's going to be very hard for the government to justify these restrictions continuing any longer. It's going to be absolutely ridiculous if say in June and there still being Downing Street News Conferences, and Johnson or Whitty whoever saying something along the likes of "Today's deaths is 10, we've had 15 hospital admissions, and the numbers in hospital with Coronavirus right now is 47......". And going on to say "We must still keep social distancing, we must still keep wearing face masks. It's too early to say when these restrictions can be lifted. We must still keep protecting the NHS and saving lives."!!!!

The numbers are only heading in one direction right now, and that's down. All these restrictions will have to be progressively eased over the next 3 to 4 months, or 5 months absolute maximum. If things don't pan out that way and they're still dragging all these unecessary DAMAGING restrictions, it will be absolutely ridiculous beyond belief. As mentioned Johnson and other ministers have told us "These vaccines are our way out of all these restrictions.". They had better not be stringing us along!

The problem is, they'll not mention the really low case numbers or hospitalisations. They're already beginning to mention them less in their current press conferences, so just imagine what it'll be like in a few weeks or months. Instead they'll refer to scientific papers which claim implausible numbers of deaths if restrictions are eased (you already have two from Warwick and Imperial). Or they'll go on about variants.

To get back to the topic of the thread, I hope that if they go down the data driven route for revealing a roadmap, then they ensure targets are numerically specific. This will make it much more difficult to shift the goalposts. I don't want any waffle about low case numbers or deaths - I want actual numbers.

 

[MikeWM]

The hospital numbers and deaths will very soon be very low. And it's going to be very hard for the government to justify these restrictions continuing any longer. It's going to be absolutely ridiculous if say in June and there still being Downing Street News Conferences, and Johnson or Whitty whoever saying something along the likes of "Today's deaths is 10, we've had 15 hospital admissions, and the numbers in hospital with Coronavirus right now is 47......". And going on to say "We must still keep social distancing, we must still keep wearing face masks. It's too early to say when these restrictions can be lifted. We must still keep protecting the NHS and saving lives."!!!!

Of course they introduced mandatory masks in shops when the deaths were below 20 a day, and social distancing never went anywhere after the '1 meter plus' thing (which I thought had been forgotten about entirely until someone mentioned it the other day). On that basis alone, it is hard to see any logical criteria by which they could ever be removed, now that they've apparently decided the vaccines don't change much after all, never mind the new excuses they've now found about variants.

As mentioned Johnson and other ministers have told us "These vaccines are our way out of all these restrictions.". They had better not be stringing us along!

It appears that is exactly what they are now trying to do. I guess we can make a firm judgement on that for ourselves when we see the 'roadmap'.