• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

Status
Not open for further replies.

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
9,669
Location
Baildon, West Yorkshire
However, if it doesn’t go well, I am not sure I see Abbot being willing to accept the consequences of his decision - this looks rather more like distraction tactics than genuine economic liberalisation.
There is an element of distraction, but frankly if you honestly believe after what happened with the power & water grids Texans would be willing to sit under months more restrictions, well you'd be kidding yourself. I'm afraid you seem grimly determined not to support any easements until the data is in and analysed, but as I said above real people can't wait any long for the analysts to get back to them.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

35B

Established Member
Joined
19 Dec 2011
Messages
2,295
There is an element of distraction, but frankly if you honestly believe after what happened with the power & water grids Texans would be willing to sit under months more restrictions, well you'd be kidding yourself. I'm afraid you seem grimly determined not to support any easements until the data is in and analysed, but as I said above real people can't wait any long for the analysts to get back to them.
As optimism has served us so well to date, I prefer a little caution. As for Texan politics, they are Texan politics; I merely made the point earlier that Governor Abbot's motives for making that announcement now may be a tad mixed. There are after all some on here who surmise that the approach to (and especially timing of) relaxing restrictions in Scotland will be heavily influenced by the Holyrood elections; I find it hard to believe that aligning policy to the interests of the governing party is limited to the SNP.
 

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
9,669
Location
Baildon, West Yorkshire
As optimism has served us so well to date, I prefer a little caution. As for Texan politics, they are Texan politics; I merely made the point earlier that Governor Abbot's motives for making that announcement now may be a tad mixed. There are after all some on here who surmise that the approach to (and especially timing of) relaxing restrictions in Scotland will be heavily influenced by the Holyrood elections; I find it hard to believe that aligning policy to the interests of the governing party is limited to the SNP.
Its not your choice to make.
 

Yew

Established Member
Joined
12 Mar 2011
Messages
6,538
Location
UK
It seems that Mississippi is joining in too, lifting mask mandates and allowing businesses to run at full capacity.


Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves announced the state is lifting their county mask mandates and allowing businesses to operate at full capacity starting tomorrow.

“Starting tomorrow, we are lifting all of our county mask mandates and businesses will be able to operate at full capacity without any state-imposed rules. Our hospitalizations and case numbers have plummeted, and the vaccine is being rapidly distributed. It is time!,” the governor said in a tweet.
 

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
9,669
Location
Baildon, West Yorkshire
Indeed, neither mine nor yours.
And furthermore it is not the decision of the scientists & analysts. It is the job of those elected to represent everyone who make the decision, and they may choose not to exercise your "preferred caution" they may be feeling pressure from people whose very livelihoods are risk. This may be even more pressing in Texas given the additional crisis they have had. I'm afraid you are going to have to come to terms with the reality that exists, decisions will be made without full analysis because every single day that restrictions exist and vaccinations increase, the risk goes down while economic impact goes up.
 

Mojo

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Administrator
Joined
7 Aug 2005
Messages
20,382
Location
0035
If I thought the politics were about supporting the people of Texas, I'd agree with you. As it is, my suspicions lean rather hard towards a dead cat strategy, using Covid to distract from the failures of power regulation in Texas.
The Mississippi governor also made the same announcement yesterday, that restrictions and masks are being dropped.
 

MikeWM

Established Member
Joined
26 Mar 2010
Messages
4,382
Location
Ely
I suspect the decision in Texas may also be related to the current popularity in Republican circles of Gov DeSantis of Florida (removed all legal restrictions and mask mandates some months ago) and Gov Noem of South Dakota (never imposed any legal restrictions or mask mandates), who are already seriously being discussed as the Republican Presidential ticket for 2024. Gov Noem went down very well at CPAC last weekend. Other potential Republican presidential candidates will have noticed.

(Of course nothing particularly bad happened in Florida after Gov DeSantis removed all restrictions, and South Dakota followed a very similar curve to its neighbouring states with various levels of restrictions imposed at various times, so it is hard to argue that they were wrong, though of course many are trying to do so).
 

35B

Established Member
Joined
19 Dec 2011
Messages
2,295
And furthermore it is not the decision of the scientists & analysts. It is the job of those elected to represent everyone who make the decision, and they may choose not to exercise your "preferred caution" they may be feeling pressure from people whose very livelihoods are risk. This may be even more pressing in Texas given the additional crisis they have had. I'm afraid you are going to have to come to terms with the reality that exists, decisions will be made without full analysis because every single day that restrictions exist and vaccinations increase, the risk goes down while economic impact goes up.
If I thought that Texas had made it's decision on those grounds, I'd be more supportive. As for what happens here, I go for the tortoise approach because the hare has worked so well in the past. Not.
 

WelshBluebird

Established Member
Joined
14 Jan 2010
Messages
4,923
Stepping back into domestic stuff again - it sounds like to be at least that the extension of Furlough to September is actually a good sign for the timeline of things being open again in June - if nothing else because they are planning for employers to contribute starting in July. It very much feels less like planning for restrictions to continue passed the end of June to me and more like a contingency for businesses where demand may take some time to get back to something closer to normal.
 

HLE

Established Member
Joined
27 Dec 2013
Messages
1,405
Surprised there isn't more uproar on here over that, unless it's on the previous 38 pages. It's a sign that government support will continue right across the economy whilst restrictions remain.
 

Yew

Established Member
Joined
12 Mar 2011
Messages
6,538
Location
UK
Surprised there isn't more uproar on here over that, unless it's on the previous 38 pages. It's a sign that government support will continue right across the economy whilst restrictions remain.
I think that for the most part, we understand that many businesses, even if they can open soon, will need support whilst they get back up to full strength.
 

david1212

Established Member
Joined
9 Apr 2020
Messages
1,464
Location
Midlands
The extension of furlough to September is not in itself problematic, though I would have liked to see it tapered off a little earlier. As mentioned upthread, it needs to link in with the 90 day consultation period for redundancies at large employers, which will now be looking at what amount of staff they want (or can afford) into the future given the sea changes to society.

I hadn't thought about that and now it seems more logical as decisions can be delayed until the second half of June.


It should be pointed out that in July employers will have to contribute 10% and from 1st August 20%, so it's not the full 80% in taxpayer money for the extension period. Given this will be case, expect those on furlough with no jobs to go back to be laid off at the end of June if all restrictions are lifted by then, as if employers don't see an immediate improvement financially on the way there's no way they can afford to contribute anything to someone not earning their business money.

I hadn't seen the 10% and then 20% employer contribution change. Where it will help is if initially there is only sufficient business to require an employee part-time with the hope of full time by September. Linked to the above if no or requirement from July then a redundancy notice.
 

Jamesrob637

Established Member
Joined
12 Aug 2016
Messages
5,207
Straight into employers' contributions this time. No "just NI and pensions" unlike August 2020.

Maybe Rishi should have had the contributions apply from June not July, however that is nit-picking.
 

WelshBluebird

Established Member
Joined
14 Jan 2010
Messages
4,923
Maybe Rishi should have had the contributions apply from June not July, however that is nit-picking.
Given that the restrictions aren't planned to be fully removed until the end of June, I think it makes sense contributions aren't expected until July.
Maybe if you want to nit pick they should make it industry dependent, but that does complicate matters and sometimes having a simpler but overly generous scheme is better than a more complex one (and is indeed why people should be careful when they argue for means testing to be applied to benefits that are currently not means tested).
 

Nicholas Lewis

Established Member
Joined
9 Aug 2019
Messages
5,996
Location
Surrey
English hospitalisation below 10k on latest data and lowest since 31st Oct last year or 25% over the last week.

Going to get interesting with data so positive whose going to breaks ranks and exert serious pressure on BoJo to be more reflective of the data.
 

Bertie the bus

Established Member
Joined
15 Aug 2014
Messages
2,781
To be honest, the numbers are looking so good I’m beginning to doubt whether lockdown is still legal. According to various human rights stuff I’ve read, governments are legally entitled to temporarily revoke people’s rights under certain circumstances, a health crisis being one. Back in January it couldn’t really be argued there wasn't a health crisis but there certainly isn’t one now so I can’t see how they can justify stay at home lasting until 29 March. The number in hospital now is almost exactly the same as in mid-May when stay at home was rescinded after the first lockdown, in 3 ½ weeks time the number is likely to be minimal if the rate of reduction continues.
 
Last edited:

chris11256

Member
Joined
27 Dec 2012
Messages
734
English hospitalisation below 10k on latest data and lowest since 31st Oct last year or 25% over the last week.

Going to get interesting with data so positive whose going to breaks ranks and exert serious pressure on BoJo to be more reflective of the data.
They do have a interesting interpretation of 'data not dates', Surely it works both ways. Although I suppose it doesn't help that regular poll data shows people well in favour of restrictions and an extremely caution easing of restrictions.
 

Watershed

Veteran Member
Associate Staff
Senior Fares Advisor
Joined
26 Sep 2020
Messages
11,945
Location
UK
To be honest, the numbers are looking so good I’m beginning to doubt whether lockdown is still legal. According to various human rights stuff I’ve read, governments are legally entitled to temporarily revoke people’s rights under certain circumstances, a health crisis being one. Back in January it couldn’t really be argued there was a health crisis but there certainly isn’t one now so I can’t see how they can justify stay at home lasting until 29 March. The number in hospital now is almost exactly the same as in mid-May when stay at home was rescinded after the first lockdown, in 3 ½ weeks time the number is likely to be minimal if the rate of reduction continues.
It really comes down to one simple fact - the law allows a considerable degree of discretion on the part of the executive, in determining whether something is a proportionate response, whether something is a crisis etc.

The courts are extremely reluctant to intervene in such executive decisions; the Supreme Court emphasised that in the recent case surrounding Ms Begum, and chided the Court of Appeal for not essentially taking the Home Secretary's views and decisions on face value.

People have tried and failed with judicial reviews. The long and short of it is this: until enough people wake up to the current madness, and MPs (and crucially the government) realise that public opinion has shifted, things will not change.
 

Class 33

Established Member
Joined
14 Aug 2009
Messages
2,362
Yes the numbers are really coming down now. And as mentioned by me and others on here when we get to 8th March it's going to be ridiculous that the "Stay at Home. Protect the NHS. Save Lives" slogan/rule is still going. In the first lockdown the "Stay at Home" rule was dropped after 7 weeks, and that was without the vaccines. And now we have the vaccines, and all the stats are absolutely tumbling.

There was some mention that the decrease of the numbers of new cases had slowed down a bit. Well that was the case, as I remember it had fallen to about -25% but then fell back to about -11%. Well the decrease has since speeded up again, as it's now -31%! But even if the numbers of new cases do start surging again, well it's been announced that the link between new cases leading to hospital admissions and deaths has been broken!

By the end of this month, those stats are going to be a hell of a lot better again. Rough estimates from me - numbers of new cases below 1,000, deaths below 50, numbers in hospital below 2,000, and all stats still continuing to fall. It could very much be argued as to why we would have to wait all the way until 21st June for all restrictions to be scrapped. The 31st May for all restrictions to be scrapped would be far fairer.
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
29,070
By the end of this month, those stats are going to be a hell of a lot better again. Rough estimates from me - numbers of new cases below 1,000, deaths below 50, numbers in hospital below 2,000, and all stats still continuing to fall. It could very much be argued as to why we would have to wait all the way until 21st June for all restrictions to be scrapped. The 31st May for all restrictions to be scrapped would be far fairer.

My guess is that by the end of the month, daily rates will be:

cases nearer 2000 than 1000
Deaths below 50 (as you say)
Hospital cases above 3,000*

This is roughly where we were end June / early July last year.

A lot of ‘what happens next’ depends on what happens with the schools going back on Monday. Clearly the effect on the numbers will take a couple of weeks to start feeding through. It will be interesting to see case rates in Scotland where some pupils went back last week.

*UK hospital numbers actually went up yesterday. Whilst fewer people were admitted than this time last week, there where even fewer discharged.
 

Nicholas Lewis

Established Member
Joined
9 Aug 2019
Messages
5,996
Location
Surrey
It really comes down to one simple fact - the law allows a considerable degree of discretion on the part of the executive, in determining whether something is a proportionate response, whether something is a crisis etc.

The courts are extremely reluctant to intervene in such executive decisions; the Supreme Court emphasised that in the recent case surrounding Ms Begum, and chided the Court of Appeal for not essentially taking the Home Secretary's views and decisions on face value.

People have tried and failed with judicial reviews. The long and short of it is this: until enough people wake up to the current madness, and MPs (and crucially the government) realise that public opinion has shifted, things will not change.
The media is moving in the right direction now but govt will have to sit on their hands until they are sure schools aren't having any impact on hospitalisations otherwise they will be castigated. So although it doesn't feel right and certainly isn't data led anymore my take is they won't budge on anything for several weeks yet but once they see hospitalisations and mortality continuing to decline they will bring things for ward a week or two for each of the following stages.
 

Jamesrob637

Established Member
Joined
12 Aug 2016
Messages
5,207
Wales will be your benchmark there. Schools there resumed last week for certain pupils and will gradually resume for all pupils until the 19th of April.
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
29,070
The media is moving in the right direction now but govt will have to sit on their hands until they are sure schools aren't having any impact on hospitalisations otherwise they will be castigated. So although it doesn't feel right and certainly isn't data led anymore my take is they won't budge on anything for several weeks yet but once they see hospitalisations and mortality continuing to decline they will bring things for ward a week or two for each of the following stages.

The chances of any change in the stage 1 of the strategy is as close to zero as you can get. The chances of any change to stage 2 before it happens on April 12th is similar. Personally I don’t think any of the dates will be changed, but what might happen is that what happens on each date may change - eg some of the changes slated for 21 June could move to 17 May. But for that to happen we’d need to be down to hospital occupancy in the low hundreds, R below 1, and no sign of increased infection rates anywhere as a result of the stage 1 or 2 changes.
 

farleigh

Member
Joined
1 Nov 2016
Messages
1,145
If I thought that Texas had made it's decision on those grounds, I'd be more supportive. As for what happens here, I go for the tortoise approach because the hare has worked so well in the past. Not.
The hare approach??
 

yorkie

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Administrator
Joined
6 Jun 2005
Messages
67,432
Location
Yorkshire
This is a great interview

Well worth spending 11 mins watching this one:


Professor Robert Dingwall, of Nottingham Trent University, tells Andrew Neil that Covid restrictions should be lifted once the top nine most vulnerable groups are vaccinated in mid-April. Professor Dingwall, who sits on the government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, argues that models predicting up to 55,000 more coronavirus deaths over the summer if the rules do not remain in place are exaggerated.

The hare approach??
People who support harsh lockdowns or "Zero covid" strategies appear to think we should have been locked down all Summer, basically.
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
6,968
Location
Taunton or Kent
Oh look, the worst infection study of them all (not just because it's run by pessimists at Imperial but because less modelling and data collection takes place compared to the ONS and ZOE studies), saying infection declines are slowing. We would expect that under exponential decay, and now the vaccine rollout is starting to show its effects, which will only improve further, infection numbers need to become less relevant:



A marked decline in infections between January and February may have slowed, according to scientists tracking coronavirus in England.

Infections fell by two-thirds over lockdown, but one in 200 people still have the virus.

Lower virus levels are needed to get the best out of the vaccination programme, Imperial College's React study says.

Schools are reopening on Monday in England in the first easing of rules.

Based on swab tests of a random sample of 165,000 people between 4 and 23 February, the study findings estimate that 0.5% of people in England had the virus - down from 1.57% in January.

The figures show "substantial falls" in household infections in all age groups and in most regions since early January, while lockdown restrictions have been in place.

It comes as official figures continue to show sharp falls in confirmed cases, hospital admissions and deaths linked to Covid-19 going back several weeks.

But the study found some evidence of smaller falls in Yorkshire and the north-east, and apparent rises in London, the south-east and the Midlands - although this was based on only a few days' worth of data in February.

Although the researchers say it's too early to detect the effect of the vaccination programme on rates of infection in the study, they stress the need to keep infections low while Covid vaccines are being rolled out.
 

yorkie

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Administrator
Joined
6 Jun 2005
Messages
67,432
Location
Yorkshire
Typical Imperial; they already have no credibility as far as I am concerned.

Also typical BBC reporting.
 

Tezza1978

Member
Joined
22 May 2020
Messages
192
Location
Warrington
Typical Imperial; they already have no credibility as far as I am concerned.

Also typical BBC reporting.
Conveniently for them, their data ends around the days in late Feb where we had a slight levelling off around that cold snap of weather - tested cases have dropped and rates of decline have accelerated since then in the last 10 days!
They did exactly the same thing in January - screaming about a "hint" in the data that cases were now increasing in several regions - which proved to be utter nonsense and led to the usual people /hysterical media sources demanding a tougher lockdown!
Hancock has already tweeted about the need to be wary of this potential "increase" and to follow the lockdown rules stringently blah blah blah
 

brad465

Established Member
Joined
11 Aug 2010
Messages
6,968
Location
Taunton or Kent
Typical Imperial; they already have no credibility as far as I am concerned.

Also typical BBC reporting.
Agreed, even if reporting style was ignored and one only focused on the data methodology, it's ironically the least reactive study of the lot, as this graph that Tim Spector recently published shows comparing surveys:


Our latest new case rates from ZOE app show a slow down in drop in new cases- but this graph shows why the different surveys give slightly different results and rely on prevalence which is slower to change but for the moment still decreasing. Lets hope it continues....

1614820562644.png
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top