22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Richard Scott]

Yet all day the Apple news app top story was along the lines of “some areas going up with cases”

More lies, damn lies and statistics no doubt. Cases may well be going up but if starting from a low base line then they are likely to fluctuate, probably to the joy of the media who can make something of it?

 

[VauxhallandI]

Then don't get your news from a greengrocer.

Go direct to a reputable news organisation which retains a depth and breadth of coverage, rather than focusing on a very small number of trending stories.

I don’t take my news from them but I’m sure many do as these apps are built in

 

[Yew]

Yet all day the Apple news app top story was along the lines of “some areas going up with cases”

I seem to remember similar headlines about the R number back in May. You'd think we'd have learned by now.

 

[yorkie]

More lies, damn lies and statistics no doubt. Cases may well be going up but if starting from a low base line then they are likely to fluctuate, probably to the joy of the media who can make something of it?

Most media outlets will NOT want to report this:

Professor Tim Spector paints an optimistic picture as rates of new COVID cases begin to fall again against a backdrop of diminishing hospital and death rates.
For the website visit: https://covid.joinzoe.com/
For more localised data visit: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

Tim Spectre says around 1 in 480 people have the virus.

Indeed the BBC are, as you would expect, keen to claim the opposite is true, with this misleading article published on the same day:

Covid: React study finds virus decline slowing in England

Infections fell by two-thirds in lockdown but one in 200 people still have the virus, a study says.

www.bbc.co.uk

A marked decline in infections between January and February may have slowed, according to scientists tracking coronavirus in England.

Infections fell by two-thirds over lockdown, but one in 200 people still have the virus.

So, Tim Spectre says 1 in 480 while BBC say 1 in 200.

Who do I believe? well, only a complete fool would believe the BBC!

(That said, as I have mentioned before, if we are comparing symptomatic Covid with Sars-Cov-2 infections, this could account for some of the discrepancy, but surely not on this scale, unless the Government are providing completely inaccurate information regarding the proportion of people who are asymptomatic to a huge order of magnitude!)

This happened a few weeks ago ago; the Slow To REACT study was claiming that infections were rising, and the usual Imperial College doom mongers were trotted out to spread their usual doom and gloom, while Tim Spectre told us what was really happening.

Does anyone trust Imperial or the BBC these days? While they may get some things right, you cannot fully trust them. I view any claims either of these organisations makes with a hefty dose of scepticism until any such claims can be found from more authoritative sources.

I used to trust the BBC, but those days are now very much gone.

I seem to remember similar headlines about the R number back in May. You'd think we'd have learned by now.

Imperial and the BBC are unlikely to change their ways.

 

[DelayRepay]

Yet all day the Apple news app top story was along the lines of “some areas going up with cases”

I think it was last week, or the week before, that my local radio station's website had a headline declaring that case numbers had started to increase in this town, following several weeks of declining numbers.

They were, strictly, correct. But their report did not go into detail about the increase. They neglected to mention that they were referring to the seven day average figure per 100,000 population which, when translated into actual numbers, showed an increase of exactly two people (not two per 100,000 but two actual people). They also failed to mention that during the week of the 'increase', the council had opened an asymptomatic testing centre and been running a big campaign to encourage people to go for a test even if they didn't have any symptoms. So thousands of extra tests = 2 extra cases. Sounds like a good result to me!

 

[Watershed]

And 2 extra "cases" would be about the level of false positives you'd expect from 1000 tests being done (the current tests have a ~0.3% false positive rate).

As Tim Spectre says in the video, with the current level of testing, and even more so with school testing now ramping up, it's unlikely we'll ever get to "0 cases". It's a statistical and scientific improbability.

 

[yorkie]

In the coming weeks there should be an acceptance that the link between 'cases' and hospitalisations/deaths is increasingly being broken and therefore the relevance of 'cases' should decrease quite dramatically.

 

[35B]

In the coming weeks there should be an acceptance that the link between 'cases' and hospitalisations/deaths is increasingly being broken and therefore the relevance of 'cases' should decrease quite dramatically.

Which is where observed reality will seriously help settle uncertainties and allow people to become comfortable with a different view of risk.

 

[ainsworth74]

I've been involved in a Zoom conference for work purposes this morning but this slide from one of the presentations I thought was of interest and also relevant to some things that we've discussed previously around the willingness of those who are more able to work from home being willing to continue the restrictions and those same people being people who are more likely to 'well off' (or at least not as deprived) than people who are less able to work from home. Well this graph, I suspect, rather makes the point:




(Graph shows percent of residents who can work from home plotted against neighbourhood index of multiple deprivation showing that areas which have higher proportions of people able to work from home are less deprived and areas with lower levels of people able to work from home have higher levels of deprivation)

 

[brad465]

Most media outlets will NOT want to report this:

Tim Spectre says around 1 in 480 people have the virus.

Indeed the BBC are, as you would expect, keen to claim the opposite is true, with this misleading article published on the same day:

Covid: React study finds virus decline slowing in England

Infections fell by two-thirds in lockdown but one in 200 people still have the virus, a study says.

www.bbc.co.uk

So, Tim Spectre says 1 in 480 while BBC say 1 in 200.

Who do I believe? well, only a complete fool would believe the BBC!

(That said, as I have mentioned before, if we are comparing symptomatic Covid with Sars-Cov-2 infections, this could account for some of the discrepancy, but surely not on this scale, unless the Government are providing completely inaccurate information regarding the proportion of people who are asymptomatic to a huge order of magnitude!)

This happened a few weeks ago ago; the Slow To REACT study was claiming that infections were rising, and the usual Imperial College doom mongers were trotted out to spread their usual doom and gloom, while Tim Spectre told us what was really happening.

Does anyone trust Imperial or the BBC these days? While they may get some things right, you cannot fully trust them. I view any claims either of these organisations makes with a hefty dose of scepticism until any such claims can be found from more authoritative sources.

I used to trust the BBC, but those days are now very much gone.


Imperial and the BBC are unlikely to change their ways.

Now add the ONS to the bank who continue to talk about a decline, and even reckon the effects of the over 70s being vaccinated is taking effect:

Coronavirus infection levels continue to drop in the UK

R remains below 1, and a survey of community infections suggest around 1-in-230 people has the virus.

www.bbc.co.uk

Levels of coronavirus infections in the UK have continued to fall, Office for National Statistics data shows.
The figures, for the seven days up to 27 February, reveal around 280,000 people in the community with the virus.
It suggests that the number infected has fallen by about a third in the most recent week of data.
Infection have also dropped in the over 70s age group in England, potentially as a result of the vaccine rollout, say experts.
People are still being advised to take precautions to stop the spread.
Low virus levels are needed to get the best out of the vaccination programme. It takes time for immunity to build after having a jab.
More than 20 million people across the UK have now received a first dose, with a target to invite all over-50s by mid-April and people in their 40s and 30s after that.
Schools are reopening on Monday in England in the first easing of rules. It remains to be seen what effect this will have on infection rates.
The ONS results, based on tests from people whether or not they had symptoms, suggest:

• Overall in the UK, one in 230 people has the virus
• In England, it is one in 220 (compared to one in 145 the week before)
• In Northern Ireland, it is one in 325 (compared to one in 195 previously)
• In Wales, it is one in 285 (compared to one in 205 before)
• In Scotland, it is one in 335 (compared to one in 225)

Sarah Crofts from the ONS said: "Infections continue to head in the right direction across the UK, with levels now similar to what we saw in early October and around a quarter of levels seen at the start of the year."
There is some regional variation, with the rate decreasing faster in some areas than others.
The trend in the north-east England, the East Midlands and eastern England is uncertain, the ONS said.
North-east England had the highest proportion of people of any region in England likely to test positive for coronavirus at around one in 150 people.
The West Midlands had the next highest estimate, one in 160.
The other estimates are:

• one in 185 for the East Midlands
• one in 190 for north-west England
• one in 195 for London
• one in 225 for Yorkshire and the Humber
• one in 260 for eastern England; one in 340 for south-east England
• one in 365 for south-west England

 

[Jamiescott1]

Do we think track and trace will end on 21st June too ?

 

[NorthOxonian]

Do we think track and trace will end on 21st June too ?

I'd like to think so, but I'm not holding my breath. It'll probably be retained because they'll want to keep an eye on "variants".

(And at the risk of sounding a bit tinfoil hat, because the government and big tech rather like having all of this movement data).

 

[Jamiescott1]

I'd like to think so, but I'm not holding my breath. It'll probably be retained because they'll want to keep an eye on "variants".

(And at the risk of sounding a bit tinfoil hat, because the government and big tech rather like having all of this movement data).

Its frustrating as I download the app if need to check in, then after checking in, delete the app until I need to download again

 

[Merseysider]

Its frustrating as I download the app if need to check in, then after checking in, delete the app until I need to download again

You’re not the only one

 

[birchesgreen]

Do we think track and trace will end on 21st June too ?

No it will continue but will need another 30 billion

 

[Yew]

No it will continue but will need another 30 billion

We've got to make sure Churchills grandson (Richard Soames, the CEO of Serco) is doing okay, after all.

 

[nlogax]

No it will continue but will need another 30 billion

It's a hell of a lot of money for more nothing to happen. I could do that for half the cost

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Hancock almost jubilant at todays presser and focussed on the positive impact with slides showing how much cases, hospitalisations and mortality have fallen and that the rates of decline are accelerating his words. Still has to throw caution to the wind that its still too high of course.

 

[island]

Its frustrating as I download the app if need to check in, then after checking in, delete the app until I need to download again

Use of the app is preferable (to me anyway) to manual check-ins, as it is not legally mandatory to self-isolate when informed by the app, but it is when informed by test & trace.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

Its frustrating as I download the app if need to check in, then after checking in, delete the app until I need to download again

You’re not the only one

Why delete the app, why not just delete the individual check in from the history?

 

[takno]

Why delete the app, why not just delete the individual check in from the history?

I haven't actually needed to install an app at all, since everywhere in Edinburgh has been mostly closed ever since they came out. If I did have to install it I'd probably remove it rather than deleting the check-in though, for the simple reason that I don't like having apps on my phone, and tend to react very badly to being forced to use them for anything

 

[Andrew S]

Do we think track and trace will end on 21st June too ?

Is anyone actually using it? I have it on my phone but haven't done anything with it this year.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Just short of 45m of England's population are in an area with a 7 day case rate less than 100/100k that was good for Tier 2 in old money or that 22m people now live in an area of less than 50/100k good for Tier 1. Furthermore testing levels are now running at 800-900k/day which means positivity rates are running below 2% which is well below the 5% threshold that WHO defines as pandemic but on we go with the restrictions being based on dates not data.
The data is out performing the modellers forecasts and I worry the better it gets we are likely to get mission creep towards zero covid unless the populus wakes up and starts to make some noise about why these restrictions aren't being relaxed faster. Despite BoJo and his useless education secretary telling us education was safe all last autumn it clearly wasn't with the significant caution now being exercised. CRG know they probably won't get any traction until there is compelling evidence so we will have to bide out time for few weeks more.

 

[Kite159]

Do we think track and trace will end on 21st June too ?

I doubt it.

M Mouse will still be visiting many pubs, maybe joined by a D Duck and B Johnson depending if details are being checked by someone (and it isn't just a piece of paper to write your details on and pop into the box)

 

[Crossover]

I doubt it.

M Mouse will still be visiting many pubs, maybe joined by a D Duck and B Johnson depending if details are being checked by someone (and it isn't just a piece of paper to write your details on and pop into the box)

I’m inclined to think it’ll go in a little longer. But once it is determined the threat has diminished significantly they need to knock it on the head. Can’t go on forever isolating massive swathes of people

 

[bengley]

Hancock almost jubilant at todays presser and focussed on the positive impact with slides showing how much cases, hospitalisations and mortality have fallen and that the rates of decline are accelerating his words. Still has to throw caution to the wind that its still too high of course.

Just so you know, throwing caution to the wind is to be less cautious.

I think err on the side of caution is the one you were looking for

 

[Eyersey468]

Indeed. What I (and I would assume most others) don't want is forced restrictions or legislative interventions. If people want to wear a mask in the winter, that's fine by me, providing you don't force me to do the same thing for no apparent reason.

Perspex screens also offer an added layer of security for the employee behind them... providing they are of decent quality and not "shower curtains" as some establishments seem to be using.

Regarding screens, most of our buses have the 'shower curtains' fitted purely because it was all we could get last March.

 

[Bald Rick]

Do we think track and trace will end on 21st June too ?

Some form of tracing system will be essential - whether it is the existing system or not remains to be seen. Many countries with low rates / low restrictions through the pandemic have had excellent tracing systems (eg Taiwan, S Korea).

 

[DB]

Some form of tracing system will be essential - whether it is the existing system or not remains to be seen. Many countries with low rates / low restrictions through the pandemic have had excellent tracing systems (eg Taiwan, S Korea).

Why is it necessary once the vaccines have been rolled out? This needs to stop and Covid needs to be removed from the list of notifiable diseases.

 

[DustyBin]

Some form of tracing system will be essential - whether it is the existing system or not remains to be seen. Many countries with low rates / low restrictions through the pandemic have had excellent tracing systems (eg Taiwan, S Korea).

I can’t see why it’s necessary? Covid-19 is very close to being “relegated” to the same status as the common cold, or flu at worst, and we don’t have t&t for those. Living with Covid-19 should mean just that.

I’ve no doubt countries such as South Korea have far better tracing systems than ours, but they also haven’t tested many people and have dealt with far worse epidemics previously, which may go a long way to explaining how they appear to have sailed through this relatively unaffected.