22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[35B]

For comparison, here is a link to the equivalent map that Nicholas posted a couple of months ago:

New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

I don't see the point in testing any more. I don't believe that track and trace will ever work properly so what's the point in testing millions of people who feel fine and could get on with their lives? I could be missing a trick but isn't the majority of testing still of symptomatic people...

www.railforums.co.uk

At first glance it gives the impression that there was less Covid prevalence then, but as mentioned above,
the scale of colours used on the current map is a whopping five times smaller!




MARK

Which, if you're trying to show relative prevalence, makes sense - colour coding is about focusing on the elements worth attention. The question, which that doesn't answer, is when you get below a threshold where absolutes matter more than relative figures.

 

[Ediswan]

Weekly Flu & Covid Survey for last week out but reporters clearly told the map was starting to look too good so they've recalibrated it again so doesn't look so good. Facts are over 80% of England is below 50 cases/100k and

I see statisticiancs at work here, not politicians. They are adjusting the scale for maximum contrast.

 

[Bald Rick]

I cant imagine many "normal" pensions are invested in commercial property.

You’ll be hard pushed to find a pension that isn’t invested in commercial property but

I see statisticiancs at work here, not politicians. They are adjusting the scale for maximum contrast.

I see politicians telling statisticians how to present their data.

 

[Yew]

Remember that 21 June is the date by which Government has indicated that all restrictions on social contact will be lifted. That’s not the same as lifting restrictions on social distancing, nor other interventions (face coverings, etc etc). That is to be covered by the review that is due to be published before June 21st (date tbc, but in reality no later than 14 June).

I’m not advocating it either way, but it is a very clear distinction by Governement.

It's hard to have social contact when also distancing, as it is, by nature, a 'contact' activity.

 

[Bald Rick]

It's hard to have social contact when also distancing, as it is, by nature, a 'contact' activity.

I think that misunderstands things. Lots of people are, right now, enjoying social contact by drinking outside the pub. However, unless they are from the same household or ‘bubble’, they should be practising social distancing, unless that is not practical.

 

[Bikeman78]

It's interesting and I think everyone will naturally react very differently. I also think it's the fact that many of us haven't been in what might have been perfectly natural situations for about 18 months and it all feels a bit novel. Part of this will be the conditioning people have had due to the types of communications and messaging they've had this past year.

For instance going back home the other day a young group (of 6, so within the rules!) came and sat down on two tables next to me. For some reason, I felt irrationally concerned about the closeness of people (maybe because 1 or 2 had slipped their masks, I don't know) even though I'm fully aware the chances they have Covid are almost zero. I think for many this will taken time to subside.

I've been on a few wedged trains recently. I was quite pleased to be honest. Even the Padd to Swansea trains have decent loads on them again. Until last week there were several free tables in every carriage. I couldn't get a table seat today. The country is finding its feet again.

 

[Ianigsy]

Is it now time to stop this 'work from home' system, and get everyone back to the workplace ? I am also fed up with some of the excuses rolled out for poor response by some Companies, also does it not still give the impression of doom and gloom, and fear, by insisting on work from home if possible ?
Haven't looked but are any other Countries still 'working from home' ? did some ever work from home ! ?

The pandemic put a spoke in the wheels of my employer’s plans to vacate the building where I currently work; the company gave two years’ notice to terminate the lease in September of 2019 and come 30th September this year, we’re out of there. Given that it’s a 1970s building, chances are it’ll be redeveloped for student flats before the heating goes cold.

The original plan was that we’d train up people on some of the company’s other sites and then take redundancy, but the pandemic made the training impossible. About 80% of my department are working from home (self excluded) and after September the idea is that we‘ll move to some form of hybrid working- the company asked us to take a survey recently which pushed the idea of compressed hours (working our 35 hour week across 4 days or 70 across 9) quite strongly - there are only so many usable desk spaces in the other premises we use.

 

[Cdd89]

I've been on a few wedged trains recently. I was quite pleased to be honest. Even the Padd to Swansea trains have decent loads on them again

I was on an SRO Thameslink train today (which I can barely remember pre Covid). Never been so pleased to see it to be honest...

The Charing X branch of the northern line is still several times busier than the Bank branch though (I skipped a Charing train at Edgware and got an empty Bank train instead!). I’m really looking forward to the W&C reopening, that’ll be a watershed moment I think, considering that didn’t even reopen last summer. We’re now up to 13 months of closure on that.

 

[david1212]

Reading between the lines, I think Boris Johnson and particularly Rishi Sunak are not keen on WFH and want the WFH advice ended in June and workers to return to their offices, at least to some degree. SAGE however are very keen on continuing the advice to WFH as they see it as one of the lighter measures.

If I was Boris or Rishi what I would want is as many as possible working full time or the same number of hours as pre March 2020 to minimise the drain on the state payouts. Where they are working would be secondary even though it brings fares income to rail, sales to coffee & sandwich shops etc. and an ongoing requirement for the commercial premises.

It's hard to have social contact when also distancing, as it is, by nature, a 'contact' activity.

I think that misunderstands things. Lots of people are, right now, enjoying social contact by drinking outside the pub. However, unless they are from the same household or ‘bubble’, they should be practising social distancing, unless that is not practical.

My understanding / interpretation is that a group of six all from a different household sat outside at a pub, cafe etc should all be sat 2m apart. Likewise the seating should be set out such that even if each group is a household or bubble the groups are 2m apart. My observations both personally and in the media are rather different though.

 

[Class 33]

A message I posted in the support thread, which I'm also posting here(though slightly revised and added to). So apologies to those in the support thread who've already read this.

It's just absolutely ridiculous these restrictions are still continuing as it is. There's just no need for all this nonsense, hassle, disruption and inconvenience any longer. The daily Coronavirus deaths now are at a very low level. An average of 26 daily deaths across the whole of the UK! That's absolutely miniscule! And even more miniscule when you break it down to deaths in your own city. For example in Bristol, there has been ZERO deaths since 21st March. On 21st March there was just ONE death. Then ZERO deaths going back to 13th March. On 12th March there was ONE death. I'll stop there. But you can see where this is going. Have a look at the Coronavirus deaths stats for your city. They will no doubt be pretty similar to that. Absolutely miniscule Coronavirus deaths now, and it's absolutely ridiculous and bonkers beyond belief that all these restrictions are still continuing! Face masks, police patrolling trains/tube trains making sure everyone is wearing face masks, keep 2 metres apart from anyone else, one way systems, severe limits on numbers of people allowed in shops(and other venues) at a time, black and yellow hazzard tapes here there and everywhere, annoying PA announcements going off every few minutes instructing us to socially distance and wear face masks!!! Absolute over the top madness! There is just no need for this any longer!

I do hope next week the CRG starts putting pressure on Johnson again that the easing of restrictions should be sped up now. And I do hope lots of business leaders(especially those in the hospitality and leisure industry) starts doing the same.

 

[anthony263]

A message I posted in the support thread, which I'm also posting here. So apologies to those in the support thread who've already read this.

It's just absolutely ridiculous these restrictions are still continuing as it is. There's just no need for all this nonsense, hassle, disruption and inconvenience any longer. The daily Coronavirus deaths now are at a very low level. An average of 26 daily deaths across the whole of the UK! That's absolutely miniscule! And even more miniscule when you break it down to deaths in your own city. For example in Bristol, there has been ZERO deaths since 21st March. On 21st March there was just ONE death. Then ZERO deaths going back to 13th March. On 12th March there was ONE death. I'll stop there. But you can see where this is going. Have a look at the Coronavirus deaths stats for your city. They will no doubt be pretty similar to that. Absolutely miniscule Coronavirus deaths now, and it's absolutely ridiculous and bonkers beyond belief that all these restrictions are still continuing! Face masks, police patrolling trains/tube trains making sure everyone is wearing face masks, keep 2 metres apart from anyone else, one way systems, severe limits on numbers of people allowed in shops(and other venues) at a time, black and yellow hazzard tapes here there and everywhere, annoying PA announcements going off every few minutes instructing us to socially distance and wear face masks!!! Absolute over the top madness! There is just no need for this any longer!

I do hope next week the CRG starts putting pressure on Johnson again that the easing of restrictions should be sped up now. And I do hope lots of business leaders(especially those in the hospitality and leisure industry) starts doing the same.

Mate I think you'll find this anger of these restrictions is why a lot of younger voters are going to punish Labour nbd the tories in Wales

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

My understanding / interpretation is that a group of six all from a different household sat outside at a pub, cafe etc should all be sat 2m apart. Likewise the seating should be set out such that even if each group is a household or bubble the groups are 2m apart. My observations both personally and in the media are rather different though.

Tables should be arranged such that they are at least 2m apart from any individual but not sure that rule applies between those on a table. So outdoor picnic benches should be arranged so people sitting on one side are at least 2m away from those on an adjacent picnic table. Places ive been too have plenty of space between tables but certainly not on the table.

 

[Class 33]

Mate I think you'll find this anger of these restrictions is why a lot of younger voters are going to punish Labour nbd the tories in Wales

Yes, and in England too. And I think it will be a lot of not so young people doing the same too. Many many people are just absolutely sick to the back teeth of these ridiculous restrictions dragging on for so long now.

 

[Reliablebeam]

I've been on a few wedged trains recently. I was quite pleased to be honest. Even the Padd to Swansea trains have decent loads on them again. Until last week there were several free tables in every carriage. I couldn't get a table seat today. The country is finding its feet again.

I can confirm this. Pleasantly surprised by loadings on Padd-Didcot. Well a bit disappointed in a way as this is no longer my personal shuttle service and I had to run for the 1902(approx) Weston-Super-Mare tonight to secure the best seat. There is even an alcohol service on some trains.

I would use the semi-fast services if they could run them <1hr but this seems a step too far.

 

[johnnychips]

Tables should be arranged such that they are at least 2m apart from any individual but not sure that rule applies between those on a table. So outdoor picnic benches should be arranged so people sitting on one side are at least 2m away from those on an adjacent picnic table. Places ive been too have plenty of space between tables but certainly not on the table.

Why? 1 in 500 people have Covid. Presumably those who are ill with it will be at home anyway. It is bizarre that I work with people all day, vaccinated, LFT tested twice a week, yet we have to sit 2m apart in a pub in the open air. It really is time this nonsense ends.

 

[brad465]

Mate I think you'll find this anger of these restrictions is why a lot of younger voters are going to punish Labour nbd the tories in Wales

Who are the anti-restriction alternatives in Wales? I heard Plaid call for some easements to happen faster so that might be possible, and the Lib Dems generally have opposed renewing the relevant legislation, but beyond them Reform UK don't seem to be getting much headway. I agree parties supporting restrictions need to know many don't tolerate them anymore, but it's hard to see at least on the surface this happening.

Yes, and in England too. And I think it will be a lot of not so young people doing the same too. Many many people are just absolutely sick to the back teeth of these ridiculous restrictions dragging on for so long now.

Is it possible that opinion polling on political parties cannot easily pickup the views of anti-lockdown candidates/parties? I know single issue opinion polling is bogus, but on political voting intentions weighted sampling and/or multi-level regression is done to try and get as accurate a picture as possible, and while not perfect they were accurate for the 2019 election, give or take a few % points.

That said when it comes to London Mayoral election bookmaker odds, Brian Rose is second favourite (although Khan is runaway favourite), with many bookies giving him better odds than Shaun Bailey, despite opinion polling giving very few for others and Bailey typically polling 25-30%. Unless of course the reason Rose's odds are shorter is because so many punters are putting money on him that bookies are cutting odds to curb potential payouts if he does win.

 

[DustyBin]

I cant imagine many "normal" pensions are invested in commercial property.

Sorry OT but they often are. Both of mine (I have one from a previous employer as well as my main one) are, quite heavily in fact.

 

[VauxhallandI]

For comparison, here is a link to the equivalent map that Nicholas posted a couple of months ago:

New lockdown in England, including school closures, announced by Johnson, 4/1/21

I don't see the point in testing any more. I don't believe that track and trace will ever work properly so what's the point in testing millions of people who feel fine and could get on with their lives? I could be missing a trick but isn't the majority of testing still of symptomatic people...

www.railforums.co.uk

At first glance it gives the impression that there was less Covid prevalence then, but as mentioned above,
the scale of colours used on the current map is a whopping five times smaller!




MARK

That’s criminal.

So a score of 49 that would put you in the lowest bracket second only to zero ow places you in the second worse category.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Why? 1 in 500 people have Covid. Presumably those who are ill with it will be at home anyway. It is bizarre that I work with people all day, vaccinated, LFT tested twice a week, yet we have to sit 2m apart in a pub in the open air. It really is time this nonsense ends.

Personally i agree with you I was pointing out that my interpretation of the guidance is that its table groups that need to be 2m apart not the six within a table group. I also wouldn't be bothered sitting to the back of someone at less than 2m and as you say whilst your outside I would have thought a lower distance would apply.

 

[Ediswan]

My understanding / interpretation is that a group of six all from a different household sat outside at a pub, cafe etc should all be sat 2m apart. Likewise the seating should be set out such that even if each group is a household or bubble the groups are 2m apart. My observations both personally and in the media are rather different though.

I agree that groups of six are not spacing out. It is not clear if that is expected. It would not be practical for pubs etc.

The 'rule of six' is described here:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-1...meeting-friends-and-family-outdoors-rule-of-6

In that section of the document, social distancing is only mentioned in a paragraph which otherwise covers what to do if you do need to enter a house.

If you need to enter through a house to get to a garden or other outside space and there is no alternative access, you should wear a face covering, wash or sanitise your hands when entering, and then go straight to the outside space. If you need to use the bathroom, wash your hands thoroughly and go back outside immediately. You should maintain social distancing from anyone who is not in your household or support bubble, and hosts should follow fresh air (ventilation) guidance.

 

[duncanp]

If you need to enter through a house to get to a garden or other outside space and there is no alternative access, you should wear a face covering, wash or sanitise your hands when entering, and then go straight to the outside space. If you need to use the bathroom, wash your hands thoroughly and go back outside immediately. You should maintain social distancing from anyone who is not in your household or support bubble, and hosts should follow fresh air (ventilation) guidance.

Talk about patronising people and treating them like children.

"...Yes nanny, no nanny, three bags full nanny..."

 

[philosopher]

Personally i agree with you I was pointing out that my interpretation of the guidance is that its table groups that need to be 2m apart not the six within a table group. I also wouldn't be bothered sitting to the back of someone at less than 2m and as you say whilst your outside I would have thought a lower distance would apply.

I walked past several pubs and restaurants yesterday and none of the people sat at tables with more than two people looked like they were 1m or more apart. Indeed it did not look like it was even possible for most groups as the tables were simply not big enough.

Outdoors I think the social distancing distance is 1m.

 

[Smidster]

That’s criminal.

So a score of 49 that would put you in the lowest bracket second only to zero ow places you in the second worse category.

Sorry - as a GSS statistician going to stick up for the presentation here.

It is a perfectly valid way of presenting data on a chart whose sole purpose is to tell you the relative performance between different areas at a given point in time.

Using the same colour scheme today as you did in January when you had rates as high as 1,600 per 100,000 would just be pointless - For an example of how silly that looks take a look at the London Data Store graphs on prevalence - https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases - since end of January the graph is just purple for all boroughs which tells you nothing.

Now if you had the two charts side-by-side in a single publication that would be a different story

And while it is cute to think that politicians are telling statisticians what colours to make things on charts that really isn't a thing.

 

[westv]

Sorry OT but they often are. Both of mine (I have one from a previous employer as well as my main one) are, quite heavily in fact.

are they?? DC pensions?

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Sorry - as a GSS statistician going to stick up for the presentation here.

It is a perfectly valid way of presenting data on a chart whose sole purpose is to tell you the relative performance between different areas at a given point in time.

Using the same colour scheme today as you did in January when you had rates as high as 1,600 per 100,000 would just be pointless - For an example of how silly that looks take a look at the London Data Store graphs on prevalence - https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases - since end of January the graph is just purple for all boroughs which tells you nothing.

Now if you had the two charts side-by-side in a single publication that would be a different story

And while it is cute to think that politicians are telling statisticians what colours to make things on charts that really isn't a thing.

OK that was my facetious remark originally and I get what your saying that your colleagues are presenting the data in way that makes it useful for end users to interpret quickly. However, our political leaders aided and abetted by Whitty & Vallence have a habit of using a map like this, devoid of the legend as to what the colours mean, to scare us into believing we still have areas of issues without giving it context.

 

[VauxhallandI]

OK that was my facetious remark originally and I get what your saying that your colleagues are presenting the data in way that makes it useful for end users to interpret quickly. However, our political leaders aided and abetted by Whitty & Vallence have a habit of using a map like this, devoid of the legend as to what the colours mean, to scare us into believing we still have areas of issues without giving it context.

Exactly and with no very clearly made explanation to the masses how the key has changed

 

[DustyBin]

are they?? DC pensions?

Yes, both DC pensions. I can’t remember the percentage invested in real estate but it was a decent portion. I’ll be honest, as I’m still fairly young I don’t take as much notice of all things pension related as I probably should, but I’d assume it’s via a pooled fund rather than directly.

 

[Domh245]

Exactly and with no very clearly made explanation to the masses how the key has changed

It's not a document that the public at large will be looking at though. Anyone who's deliberately searched the flu & covid surveillance reports out can be assumed to be smart enough to read the legend or otherwise realise that it's not the same that's been used previously.

The far more public facing map on the coronavirus dashboard has been pretty consistent in it's colour schemes since it's introduction (bar the addition of dark purple for 800+ during the height of cases back in December), which is what most members of the public would look at. If it were being used in a public briefing then you might have a point...

 

[VauxhallandI]

It's not a document that the public at large will be looking at though. Anyone who's deliberately searched the flu & covid surveillance reports out can be assumed to be smart enough to read the legend or otherwise realise that it's not the same that's been used previously.

The far more public facing map on the coronavirus dashboard has been pretty consistent in it's colour schemes since it's introduction (bar the addition of dark purple for 800+ during the height of cases back in December), which is what most members of the public would look at. If it were being used in a public briefing then you might have a point...

I had assumed it was the one I see everyday

 

[david1212]

My understanding / interpretation is that a group of six all from a different household sat outside at a pub, cafe etc should all be sat 2m apart. Likewise the seating should be set out such that even if each group is a household or bubble the groups are 2m apart. My observations both personally and in the media are rather different though.

Tables should be arranged such that they are at least 2m apart from any individual but not sure that rule applies between those on a table. So outdoor picnic benches should be arranged so people sitting on one side are at least 2m away from those on an adjacent picnic table. Places ive been too have plenty of space between tables but certainly not on the table.

I agree that groups of six are not spacing out. It is not clear if that is expected. It would not be practical for pubs etc.

The 'rule of six' is described here:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-1...meeting-friends-and-family-outdoors-rule-of-6

In that section of the document, social distancing is only mentioned in a paragraph which otherwise covers what to do if you do need to enter a house.

My interpretation is that this is common across all the current regulations and guidelines:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-1...nd-cannot-do#keeping-yourself-and-others-safe