22nd February - Roadmap out of the pandemic, lifting of restrictions.

[Yew]

So, in essence, people will be allowed to be stacked into big venues, but the experience will still be made intensely unpleasant by overbearing ventilation, complicated queueing, pointless testing and masks. Also, this only gets you into joyless large events. Smaller gigs and clubs will never manage to meet whatever the no-restrictions look like

But they will be Safe™. This isn't about science, it's about appealing to the whims of hypochondriacs, puritans, and busybodies.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

But they will be Safe™. This isn't about science, it's about appealing to the whims of hypochondriacs, puritans, and busybodies.

Indeed it is but like a game of Jenga and we are close to their arguments collapsing in a heap

 

[brad465]

On Question Time they had a rare question that looked at the collateral damage of all this, with regards to care homes: "Can there be any continued justification for the continued incarceration of residents in care homes?" Someone also pointed out that prisoners have had more visitor rights than a relative resident of theirs.

 

[Class 33]

Nice encouraging headline and article on Sky News website at the moment.....

Crucial new UK infection and vaccine data to be released - as 'social distancing to be scrapped in seven weeks'​

While professional footballers have been able to continue enjoying the benefits of regular warm embraces with their colleagues (due to strict bubbles and testing regimes), the rest of us have been deprived of carefree hugs with all but those in our households for more than a year now.

That, however, could be set to change before too long.

The Telegraph reports that people will be able to resume full contact by 21 June - and also that large events will be able to go ahead without any social distancing by the same date.

That's little more than seven weeks away.

It is a development that will be a particular relief to many of those who live alone and have been prevented from hugging friends since the first lockdown was imposed across the UK in March 2020.

There is every reason why this really must actually happen by 21st June. Many many people in this country will be absolutely overjoyed when social distancing nuisancing is finally finally scrapped, and we can get on with normal life again.

 

[35B]

Nice encouraging headline and article on Sky News website at the moment.....





There is every reason why this really must actually happen by 21st June. Many many people in this country will be absolutely overjoyed when social distancing nuisancing is finally finally scrapped, and we can get on with normal life again.

So one paper reports one thing, and another news outlet takes that report and interprets it as something rather more. I'm not sure what conclusions to draw from it other than that the hype machine can start all sorts of hares running which may or may not lead to disappointment.

 

[Smidster]

Using the data from the table above, 45% of the LFD tests went for retesting in Week 1 - 2.75mx0.45 = 1.25m. Data shows 361 false positives out of 1.25m tests sent for confirmatory PCR test. This equals a false positive rate of 0.03%. Source: Weekly statistics for NHS Test and Trace (England): 15 April to 21 April 2021 This also tallies with data from Orkney and Shetlands showing 0.03% false positive rate. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/968095/lateral-flow-device-specificity-in-phase-4.pdf…



I'm a big fan of Zoe and the data they collect has been really useful over the last year - however, I am a bit perplexed they are still persisting with their estimates of daily cases being half level the of actual positive tests reported each day.



You do not get hyperinflation from a £37bn Test and Trace budget. Even if you take the total government deficit for the last year it is around a fifth of GDP, again not something which is going to cause hyperinflation.

The figures released yesterday go to show some of the real flaws with mass testing and why it is worrying that we seem to be going even further in that direction.

I agree that 0.03% FP rate is in line with expectations and not all that bad but when scaled up that has the potential for an awful lot of people to be needlessly isolating at any time when there is nothing wrong. With the level of prevalence being so low in the community the fact that it is no better than 50:50 whether it is a real positive or not is also pretty poor

We also know, and this has been raised by the likes of the MHRA, that there is also a real issue with false negatives given they are best used for those with higher viral load and lets be honest Joe Public is not trained to do these things properly. It is potentially far worse to give people that false sense of security though this does become less important as rates fall.

Pretty unhappy to read the articles this morning - guess we better get used to stuffing things up our noses for fun...To me that prospect, or forced treatment, is far far worse than what we have been through in the past year.

Nice encouraging headline and article on Sky News website at the moment.....





There is every reason why this really must actually happen by 21st June. Many many people in this country will be absolutely overjoyed when social distancing nuisancing is finally finally scrapped, and we can get on with normal life again.

But you need to get into the detail.

It is not going to be a "free-for-all" on June 21st - Look at all of the restrictions that are actually still going to be in place / health screenings that you are going to have to pass to do those things.

Yes - You may have a pretty full football stadium but the faff to get in is going to be painful (literally and figuratively)

 

[Class 33]

Another encouraging article from Sky News this morning.....

'We're past the pandemic in UK'

Some very positive quotes here from Professor Tim Spector, who runs the ZOE COVID symptom app.

He has told Sky News they are currently recording symptomatic cases at around 1 in 40,000 people.

"We have one of the lowest rates in Europe," he says.

"It looks like at the moment we're past that pandemic period and we're moving into what we call the endemic period, where we get low levels of infection and occasional outbreaks that don't spread to the rest of the population and the general risk is low."

Prof Spector says there are regional variations and that parts of the country, such as areas in the East of England and the South West, have hardly any cases.

He says people there and especially those who have been vaccinated, should be "much more relaxed and less stressed out" about going out.

"For me this is a very reassuring picture and we should be a bit more upbeat about it," he added.

 

[Bikeman78]

Pretty unhappy to read the articles this morning - guess we better get used to stuffing things up our noses for fun...To me that prospect, or forced treatment, is far far worse than what we have been through in the past year.

I'm fortunate that most of my hobbies don't involve any of this faff. I can walk or cycle whenever I want. Enforcement on trains is even that great, apart from major stations. I expect that will reduce even further in June.

 

[kristiang85]

@NYCMayor
announces that New York City plans to fully reopen by July 1st. That means 100% capacity everywhere from restaurants and bars to gyms to athletic stadiums.

Hopefully we will follow.

 

[nlogax]

Hopefully we will follow.

I know where I'll be disappearing to for a week if a UK-US travel corridor is up and running by then.

 

[kristiang85]

Also, this is a good chart from the BBC showing the areas with zero COVID deaths reported in the whole of April:

 

[Grecian 1998]

There would be even more yellow on that map if some unitary authority areas such as Northumberland, Dorset or Cornwall were broken down by district area as in much of the country.

Encouraging to note plenty of urban areas have reported no deaths.

 

[VauxhallandI]

So, in essence, people will be allowed to be stacked into big venues, but the experience will still be made intensely unpleasant by overbearing ventilation, complicated queueing, pointless testing and masks. Also, this only gets you into joyless large events. Smaller gigs and clubs will never manage to meet whatever the no-restrictions look like

How many people are going to risk the ticket money knowing they have a LFT lottery in front of them?

My ticket to Wembley was £380 can you imagine I had a positive LFT result a few hours before Kick Off? The whole event was over shadowed by the worry, it wasn't a good experience.

But hey as long as the cautious folk that were locked up in their house felt safe I was going through it then that's great.

 

[Bikeman78]

How many people are going to risk the ticket money knowing they have a LFT lottery in front of them?

My ticket to Wembley was £380 can you imagine I had a positive LFT result a few hours before Kick Off? The whole event was over shadowed by the worry, it wasn't a good experience.

But hey as long as the cautious folk that were locked up in their house felt safe I was going through it then that's great.

£380? Wow! Is it possible to get insurance to cover the cost of the wasted ticket? Although the cost of that will add up if you often go to matches.

 

[Domh245]

Also, this is a good chart from the BBC showing the areas with zero COVID deaths reported in the whole of April:

It's even better when you realise that around a quarter of deaths will have been "with, not of"

 

[brad465]

The ONS has just released this week's infection survey, with a very stark drop in active infections: last survey they estimated 90,000 people in England had Covid, this time they estimate 54,200, not far off being cut in half at an already very low level, to the point it's now 1 in 1010 people. Covid also appears to be almost non-existent among over 70s, but even with other age groups 0.1-0.3% is the rate. Regionally the South West is close to 0%, with 0.1-0.2% for all other regions.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[duncanp]

The ONS has just released this week's infection survey, with a very stark drop in active infections: last survey they estimated 90,000 people in England had Covid, this time they estimate 54,200, not far off being cut in half at an already very low level, to the point it's now 1 in 1010 people. Covid also appears to be almost non-existent among over 70s, but even with other age groups 0.1-0.3% is the rate. Regionally the South West is close to 0%, with 0.1-0.2% for all other regions.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.

www.ons.gov.uk

That makes up for the headline in the Daily Mail COVID Bedwetter today about cases of the Indian variant "SURGING EIGHT FOLD IN A FORTNIGHT TO MORE THAN 400, as Public Health England confirms there are THREE TYPES OF STRAIN. (Have you soiled yourself yet with all the stress and worry? )

EXCLUSIVE: Public Health England data show that the number of Indian variant cases in the UK has surged from just 77 two weeks ago to 400, as chiefs noticed there are slight variations in different samples. Data from the Wellcome Institute, a science centre doing most of the variant checking on swab tests, shows cases have been found in dozens of areas across England, picking out Leicester, Harrow and Hounslow as the hotspots, with 11, 6 and 5.5 samples testing positive per week since the variant was found. Dr Duncan Robertson, a Covid modeller at the University of Loughborough, said in a tweet: 'Many of these are likely to be linked to travel.'

 

[Bikeman78]

That makes up for the headline in the Daily Mail COVID Bedwetter today about cases of the Indian variant "SURGING EIGHT FOLD IN A FORTNIGHT TO MORE THAN 400, as Public Health England confirms there are THREE TYPES OF STRAIN. (Have you soiled yourself yet with all the stress and worry? )

Literally couldn't care less.

 

[Bantamzen]

That makes up for the headline in the Daily Mail COVID Bedwetter today about cases of the Indian variant "SURGING EIGHT FOLD IN A FORTNIGHT TO MORE THAN 400, as Public Health England confirms there are THREE TYPES OF STRAIN. (Have you soiled yourself yet with all the stress and worry? )

Personally I'm sticking with the "experts" who are still "urging caution". After all, we don't want a pandemic of bored, unemployed experts going around scaring old ladies in the streets....

 

[Ediswan]

That makes up for the headline in the Daily Mail COVID Bedwetter today about cases of the Indian variant "SURGING EIGHT FOLD IN A FORTNIGHT TO MORE THAN 400, as Public Health England confirms there are THREE TYPES OF STRAIN. (Have you soiled yourself yet with all the stress and worry? )

Another case of headline writers disease. The same article goes on to say:

Scientists can't yet tell whether any of the three spread quicker than the Kent strain, which is dominant in Britain. But they don't think it does based on current evidence, and also don't believe it is any more like to cause serious illness or death.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Purely statistical here: today's death toll of 15 is a huge improvement on last Friday's 40, and takes the seven-day rolling average down to 18.86 (19). The equivalent date post first wave was the 21st of July.

Cases drop a little also as do hospitalizations, the latter standing at just under 1500 for all four nations, so probably not much more than 1000 for England as a standalone. Very promising as we head into the first of two long weekends this month (May)

 

[kristiang85]

Purely statistical here: today's death toll of 15 is a huge improvement on last Friday's 40, and takes the seven-day rolling average down to 18.86 (19). The equivalent date post first wave was the 21st of July.

Cases drop a little also as do hospitalizations, the latter standing at just under 1500 for all four nations, so probably not much more than 1000 for England as a standalone. Very promising as we head into the first of two long weekends this month (May)

With 1250 hospitals in the UK, on average that is pretty much one COVID patient per hospital (obviously it's not spread out like that, but it does illustrate how low we are now).

 

[Class 33]

Current(as of yesterday) hospital numbers in England's hospitals is 1,235. That should be down below 1,000 within 7 or 8 days.

 

[Ediswan]

With 1250 hospitals in the UK, on average that is pretty much one COVID patient per hospital (obviously it's not spread out like that, but it does illustrate how low we are now).

The seven day rolling average of 'deaths within 28 days' has actually gone up four days in the last seven. But the three days it went down more than made up for that. The 'law of large numbers' no longer applies. We can no longer expect figures to fall every day (even allowing for weekends and holidays). It is the longer term trends which matter, which the BBC are reporting today.

 

[Dent]

The seven day rolling average of 'deaths within 28 days' has actually gone up four days in the last seven. But the three days it went down more than made up for that. The 'law of large numbers' no longer applies. We can no longer expect figures to fall every day (even allowing for weekends and holidays). It is the longer term trends which matter, which the BBC are reporting today.

Are you looking at the figures by reporting date? These are not an accurate indication of the trend as the reporting lag is not consistent. The right figures to look at at are by date of death, accepting that the most recent few days are likely to be incomplete.

 

[Ediswan]

Are you looking at the figures by reporting date? These are not an accurate indication of the trend as the reporting lag is not consistent. The right figures to look at at are by date of death, accepting that the most recent few days are likely to be incomplete.

I am not totally sure. But it doesn't matter. The day to day figures will be different, but longer term trends will inevitably show up in both.
These: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Current(as of yesterday) hospital numbers in England's hospitals is 1,235. That should be down below 1,000 within 7 or 8 days.

NHS England publish admission and hospitalisation data every day (dashboard seems pick them up 24 hrs later) and as of 0900 this morning England has 1161 beds occupied by a Covid cases with 170 on mechanical ventilation and 89 admissions. All close to an 8 month low with bed occupancy representing c1% of all NHS England beds.

So why are we still at Level 4 "Level four indicates a high or rising level of transmission, with social distancing still enforced"?

 

[greyman42]

So why are we still at Level 4 "Level four indicates a high or rising level of transmission, with social distancing still enforced"?

That's a very good question.

 

[Yew]

So one paper reports one thing, and another news outlet takes that report and interprets it as something rather more. I'm not sure what conclusions to draw from it other than that the hype machine can start all sorts of hares running which may or may not lead to disappointment.

Isn't that how we moved from our pandemic plans on to lockdowns, and how despite the lack of evidence, masks became mandatory.

 

[Class 33]

NHS England publish admission and hospitalisation data every day (dashboard seems pick them up 24 hrs later) and as of 0900 this morning England has 1161 beds occupied by a Covid cases with 170 on mechanical ventilation and 89 admissions. All close to an 8 month low with bed occupancy representing c1% of all NHS England beds.

So why are we still at Level 4 "Level four indicates a high or rising level of transmission, with social distancing still enforced"?

Yes, just 170 on mechanical ventilators now. Within a month that could well be down to ZERO.

Ridiculous that we're still on Alert Level 4. Should have gone down to Level 2 within recent weeks, and in my opinion should be only at Level 1 now. Why have they not dropped it down? Yet when it's gone the other way, they waste no time atall in putting it up a level! Ridiculous!

Yes also ridiculous that social distancing is still enforced. Where we are right now with the Covid stats along with the continuing vaccination programme, social distancing should no longer exist atall. Still, only another 51 days to put up with this nonsense now. The 21st June just can't come soon enough. Good riddance to social distancing!