7 days to Christmas...

Status
Not open for further replies.
T

Tom

Guest
...so you lot, how many posts do you think we will have by Christmas Day?

(see the Forum Index for current amount, I'm just going to say that currently on average we get around 300 posts a day and if I count all time we get around 195 posts a day).
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Tom B

Established Member
Joined
27 Jul 2005
Messages
4,531
Well this isn't a proper estimate because I don't have all the data, BUT this is what you'd have if posts grew at the rate they have done since the start of the forum.

Let y be the number of posts on the forum on a date x.

The start of the forum was 27th May (assuming - this is when TC's account was created), when there were 0 posts. This is point (147,0).

Today is 18th December and there are 34990 posts. This is point (352,34990).

To find m, use

y-y1
_____

x-x1

=

34990
_____

205

= 170.68

Then substitute into

y - y1 = m (x - x1)

y - 34990 = 170.68 ( x - 352)

to give

y = 170x - 34638

Now let x = 359 (25th December)

y = 170 . 359 - 34638

y = 26392

So if the forum had grown consistently at the same average rate it has since May there would be 26,392 posts. Obviously there are much more than that because the growth isn't uniform and I just created a simple model. If you have a date in the recent past and the number of posts on that date you could model it more accurately.

Now using TC's figure of m=195

y=195x - 34638

y=35567

Which is coming on for 1000 posts between now and Christmas.

Now let m=300

y=300x - 34638

y=73062

Which is ridiculously high.

Take your pick!

Aplogies for the sloppy mathematical pseudo-formatting, best I could do with ASCII.

Did anyone get any of that?
 

Nitro

Member
Joined
20 Nov 2005
Messages
475
Location
London
Nope but you could times 300 (average amount of posts per day) by 7 (days left till Christmas) and add the total to the current amount of aritcles and you would get an APPROXIMATE result :P .
 

Tom B

Established Member
Joined
27 Jul 2005
Messages
4,531
Yes, that would give something in the region of 37,000 which is nearish to my second value of y.

Besides, I thought it was great fun doing all that calculation! Oh, look, who are those men in white coats coming down the street?
 

Techniquest

Veteran Member
Joined
19 Jun 2005
Messages
17,877
Location
Nowhere Heath
Hi

I think this is a stupid idea, guessing how many posts we'll have by 25/12/2005.

Seems my complaint previously about stupid posts like this went unnoticed after all.

I'm tempted to complain again, but that's a waste of hammering on my keyboard. I know it's the Off Topic section of the forum, but why do we need to do this? Every week we have a thread or three on post counts. Seems some people have nothing better to do than tell us all about how they reached the current post count, what it is, or to post that they're on 927 posts, with 73 posts to go til they hit 1000 posts.

This forum's going the way of The Transport Forum (ie, we'll see mass movement of members to a new or other forum soon (no offence to TTF members here, by the way)) it appears.

Fed up of post count reports,
FGWFan
 
T

Tom

Guest
FGWFan, its all a bit of fun really in the run up to Christmas, it may get a bit boring on the run-up to Christmas and as you can see, there hasn't been that much attention to this thread.
 

Mojo

Forum Staff
Staff Member
Administrator
Joined
7 Aug 2005
Messages
17,654
Location
0035
AJP said:
Cockfosters said:
We don't break up 'till Wednesday :(.
Yer true but Don Valley High school has. Very strange :lol:
Might have been teacher training?

We weren't supposed to finish 'til yesterday, and that's the official end of term date, but we got told the principal thought it was too close to christmas, and told everyone it was teacher training. Whereas in fact, my tutor told me that the college christmas party was on the monday and everyone stayed at home on the tuesday :lol:
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top