Abellio Scotrail Franchise to end early in March 2022

[snookertam]

ScotRail ticket prices are extremely cheap compared to the rest of the country and the trains are empty 90% of the time. I have travelled on many a service where I was the only passenger and on a ticket that was providing zero extra revenue to the operator. Some might be tempted to suggest that you don't have the faintest idea about the economics of running a railway.

I think there’s peaks and troughs in terms of passenger numbers like with most operators’ routes. Most of the commuter services around Glasgow aren’t empty 90% of the time, I’d be surprised if they were even 50% of the time including off peak. However I would point point out that the money made by a TOC would be an extremely complex balance between a number of factors, which fare intake is only one.

As a possibly related aside, I’m amazed at the frequency being run by ScotRail today. Services understandably didn’t commence until after 9am, there are no Cathcart Circle or Barrhead locals among other reductions, but also appear to be running increased peaks on the East Kilbride, Newton and Neilston routes. Unsurprisingly, these trains are empty! Even a Saturday service is a bit generous on Jan 2nd so why they thought an evening peak was required anywhere is beyond me.

 

[HH]

Was referring to the level and quality of service to the Customer not to profits taken

I think it fair to say that Abellio have been very successful at franchise bidding off the back of promising new Rolling Stock. However, when it has come to delivery of said RS they have been less successful.

 

[HH]

I think there’s peaks and troughs in terms of passenger numbers like with most operators’ routes. Most of the commuter services around Glasgow aren’t empty 90% of the time, I’d be surprised if they were even 50% of the time including off peak. However I would point point out that the money made by a TOC would be an extremely complex balance between a number of factors, which fare intake is only one.

My experience is that Glasgow is busy for about an hour in the evening. By 1800 the trains are half empty and by the time you've gone a few stops emptier still. Compared to London, or even Manchester, the trains feel empty. Of course there are some exceptions, but ScotRail is the most heavily subsidised franchise in the country and the main reason for that is the relatively low number of passengers per train mile, with the relatively low fares being a second major factor. I have no idea what other sources of income you imagine for ScotRail, but outside the Franchise Subsidy, they don't amount to a hill of beans.

 

[haggishunter]

What do you mean by "technically", because it's clearly not the dictionary definition?

The deal for the 385s is very advantageous for TS compared to most Rolling Stock deals; do you have any evidence that TS could have done better?

I do wish people wouldn't opine as if they were experts when they clearly don't have a clue.

Oh the irony of someone who hasn't a clue posting that last sentence. 90% of ScotRail trains run empty? Really?

 

[Struner]

Oh the irony of someone who hasn't a clue posting that last sentence. 90% of ScotRail trains run empty? Really?

Lol.
But January 2 should be a Sunday schedule I suppose.

 

[delt1c]

My experience is that Glasgow is busy for about an hour in the evening. By 1800 the trains are half empty and by the time you've gone a few stops emptier still. Compared to London, or even Manchester, the trains feel empty. Of course there are some exceptions, but ScotRail is the most heavily subsidised franchise in the country and the main reason for that is the relatively low number of passengers per train mile, with the relatively low fares being a second major factor. I have no idea what other sources of income you imagine for ScotRail, but outside the Franchise Subsidy, they don't amount to a hill of beans.

So in Scotland it is a public service that is provided , not a “for profit” service. Makes me proud to be Scott where transport is provided for the masses not the shareholders

 

[Carntyne]

My experience is that Glasgow is busy for about an hour in the evening. By 1800 the trains are half empty and by the time you've gone a few stops emptier still. Compared to London, or even Manchester, the trains feel empty. Of course there are some exceptions, but ScotRail is the most heavily subsidised franchise in the country and the main reason for that is the relatively low number of passengers per train mile, with the relatively low fares being a second major factor. I have no idea what other sources of income you imagine for ScotRail, but outside the Franchise Subsidy, they don't amount to a hill of beans.

"Glasgow is busy for about an hour". Which route?

 

[Carntyne]

As a possibly related aside, I’m amazed at the frequency being run by ScotRail today. Services understandably didn’t commence until after 9am, there are no Cathcart Circle or Barrhead locals among other reductions, but also appear to be running increased peaks on the East Kilbride, Newton and Neilston routes. Unsurprisingly, these trains are empty! Even a Saturday service is a bit generous on Jan 2nd so why they thought an evening peak was required anywhere is beyond me.

It is a rail franchise. Abellio don't get to choose the level of service, it's specified.

 

[snookertam]

My experience is that Glasgow is busy for about an hour in the evening. By 1800 the trains are half empty and by the time you've gone a few stops emptier still. Compared to London, or even Manchester, the trains feel empty. Of course there are some exceptions, but ScotRail is the most heavily subsidised franchise in the country and the main reason for that is the relatively low number of passengers per train mile, with the relatively low fares being a second major factor. I have no idea what other sources of income you imagine for ScotRail, but outside the Franchise Subsidy, they don't amount to a hill of beans.

Deary me this is wildly, wildly inaccurate. Your experience of Glasgow clearly isn't very considerable.

Genuinely trying to work out if you're at the wind-up here.

 

[snookertam]

It is a rail franchise. Abellio don't get to choose the level of service, it's specified.

Would that be the case on Jan 2nd though? It seems an odd set up today, as if they can't decide if it's going to be busy or not.

Maybe it is down to the Franchise requirements but it seems strange that certain routes are picked out for frequency increases and others aren't.

 

[Carntyne]

Would that be the case on Jan 2nd though? It seems an odd set up today, as if they can't decide if it's going to be busy or not.

Maybe it is down to the Franchise requirements but it seems strange that certain routes are picked out for frequency increases and others aren't.

Yes, it's still a rail franchise even though it's Jan 2nd. Why would that be any different?

 

[HH]

Oh the irony of someone who hasn't a clue posting that last sentence. 90% of ScotRail trains run empty? Really?

I didn't say that 90% of the trains were empty, I said they ran "empty" 90% of the time. OK that was an exaggeration, but they are relatively empty compared to the rest of GB.

In terms of passenger train kms SR ran 47.6m in 2018/19 and carried 98.2m passengers. For comparison, GTR ran about 30% more kms, but carried more than three times as many passengers. I don't have the revenue figures for 18/19, but those for 17/18 show ScotRail with £346m and GTR with £1,463m, around four and a quarter times as much. So SR carry relatively few passengers and those passengers pay relatively low fares.

 

[snookertam]

Yes, it's still a rail franchise even though it's Jan 2nd. Why would that be any different?

I know that... but would the requirements written into the franchise be as detailed as to specify what th service should be between 1700-1800 on Jan 2nd? They evidently didn't have to have the full weekday frequency running today - quite rightly so - so I wouldn't get the logic in running an increased service in an evening peak which was never really going to exist. It could well be Transport Scotland that have done this - what I think it is evidence of is that their ability to anticipate or respond to demand could probably be better.

 

[route101]

"Glasgow is busy for about an hour". Which route?

Not the EK for sure , two cars in the evening are usually busy and always on Friday and Saturday nights.

 

[InOban]

It may actually be part of a long-standing agreement with Strathclyde passenger transport. That's why there are services in their area on Boxing Day.

BTW, I thought that Northern was subsidised as much as ScotRail? And for the same reason - lots of short trains.

 

[Macwomble]

In terms of passenger train kms SR ran 47.6m in 2018/19 and carried 98.2m passengers. For comparison, GTR ran about 30% more kms, but carried more than three times as many passengers. I don't have the revenue figures for 18/19, but those for 17/18 show ScotRail with £346m and GTR with £1,463m, around four and a quarter times as much. So SR carry relatively few passengers and those passengers pay relatively low fares.

Get real....at least compare like with like. SR covers the whole of Scotland (population 5.5 million, or thereabouts)...I'll bet GTR "services" a much smaller footprint BUT with (probably) 4 times that population.

What you've done is compare apples with oranges.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Actually the Abellio Financing deal is not the normal ROSCO one, being at a much better interest rate and with the option for TS to buy the stock for a nominal fee at the end of the lease. It was partly able to get such a good deal due to TS agreeing to commit to the stock, something DfT is no longer doing. However, TS, being a government department, has to work under restrictions regarding finance that do not apply to Abellio, so I suspect that it would not have gotten such a good deal directly, let alone a better one. I'm not a government financing expert, so cannot say for certain, but DfT's RS deals have not been amazing value.

HH thats very interesting and pretty sure that's a one off amongst current rolling stock deals and sounds positively philanthropic compared to the original ROSCOs leases but maybe there Japanese backing gives then different morals.

 

[MacCookie]

It may actually be part of a long-standing agreement with Strathclyde passenger transport. That's why there are services in their area on Boxing Day.

Strathclyde Passenger Transport hasn’t existed for some time. There is Strathclyde Partnership for Transport.

 

[hwl]

Get real....at least compare like with like. SR covers the whole of Scotland (population 5.5 million, or thereabouts)...I'll bet GTR "services" a much smaller footprint BUT with (probably) 4 times that population.

What you've done is compare apples with oranges.

No, it is a valid comparison - it just shows the economics aren't as good hence why it needs lots of subsidy.

Some more ORR data analysis (you probably won't like the answers) 2016/7 to match HH's. This includes the Southern Guard strikes and the impact of rebuilding London Bridge so the more recent figures show and even larger gulf.

Scotrail call at 352 stations but GTR just 239
Scotrail avg. revenue per station £0.983m
GTR avg. revenue per station £6.121m

Scotrail avg. revenue per passenger £3.48 - avg. subsidy (inc NR direct grant) per passenger £6.58 - % Subsidy 65%
GTR avg. revenue per passenger £4.43 - avg. subsidy (inc NR direct grant) per passenger £0.92 - % Subsidy 17%

On 2018-19 data the average passenger loadings were 145 (GTR) vs 63 (Scotrail) with very similar average journey lengths, with a 2.32x difference in average passenger loadings.

 

[hwl]

HH thats very interesting and pretty sure that's a one off amongst current rolling stock deals and sounds positively philanthropic compared to the original ROSCOs leases but maybe there Japanese backing gives then different morals.

Not quite, TfL struck a very similar deal for the 710s (same bank leading the lending consortium...) The big difference is very long term deal - the opposite of what DfT has ended up encouraging, the only downside being you need to make sure you know what you want and don't get lemons (DfT were some what annoyed with being stuck with unsuitable stock for decades, hence the end of S.54)

 

[InOban]

Strathclyde Passenger Transport hasn’t existed for some time. There is Strathclyde Partnership for Transport.

Pedantry rules ok! It's still SPT.. Just changed its name when it lost most of its funding.
And anyway the agreement goes back to the previous incarnation

 

[alangla]

To be fair, on the North Clyde lines there are a lot of 6 car sets mainly loaded with fresh air outside of the peaks, in simpler times these used to detach a set at places like Helensburgh, Milngavie or Larkhall, but with the increase in sets needed for the service and the extremely long time before each unit cycles back to the same place, this doesn’t happen as much if at all. The last timetable change, IIRC, saw the Airdrie to Balloch service start running as 6 cars all day & pretty much all of A2B is sixes. There’s no need (other than an operational one) for there to be as many daytime & evening 6 car sets out. Peaks are a very different matter obviously.

 

[Aictos]

Get real....at least compare like with like. SR covers the whole of Scotland (population 5.5 million, or thereabouts)...I'll bet GTR "services" a much smaller footprint BUT with (probably) 4 times that population.

What you've done is compare apples with oranges.

I agree, you can’t compare Scotrail with GTR as it’s not a fair comparison.

Try comparing GTR with SWR or SE and that’s a fairer comparison.

 

[adrock1976]

I agree, you can’t compare Scotrail with GTR as it’s not a fair comparison.

Try comparing GTR with SWR or SE and that’s a fairer comparison.

I feel that a fairer comparison for the Scotrail franchise would be with the Wales & Borders due to the similarities they share in terms of franchise specification and is directly controlled by the respective devolved legislative bodies.

For example, the operation of both is broadly similar such as:

1) The largest populated city of both have an extensive local network (Strathclyde, Valley Lines)

2) Both have lines and routes that serve rural areas with lengthy single track sections (north of Inverness, Inverness - Perth, Heart of Wales, Cambrian)

3) Both have traditional Intercity trains to and from London that are run by DfT Intercity franchises

4) Both have internal Regional Express services (for the time being, as Scotland is upgrading those to traditional Intercity routes subject to when the saga of the refurbished HSTs have been completed)

5) There are very few profitable routes for both (Edinburgh - Glasgow via Falkirk High, trains via Cardiff and the Marches for Wales?) outwith the two or three largest cities, with cross subsidy required owing to the rural geography of both Scotland and Wales.

All of the above are not exhaustive - those are the things I could think of.

 

[NotATrainspott]

Another factor in the lower utilisation and higher subsidy of ScotRail services is that driving is a more realistic option for many ScotRail passengers. London commuter operators work in a very different market where for all intents and purposes they have a complete monopoly of transport into Zone 1. As a result, passengers have little option but to use overcrowded trains and pay whatever it costs to buy a ticket. If ScotRail tried to run at the same fares and capacity utilisation it would very quickly lose passengers to the roads. That's true of the other non-London commuter operators too.

 

[Aictos]

I feel that a fairer comparison for the Scotrail franchise would be with the Wales & Borders due to the similarities they share in terms of franchise specification and is directly controlled by the respective devolved legislative bodies.

For example, the operation of both is broadly similar such as:

1) The largest populated city of both have an extensive local network (Strathclyde, Valley Lines)

2) Both have lines and routes that serve rural areas with lengthy single track sections (north of Inverness, Inverness - Perth, Heart of Wales, Cambrian)

3) Both have traditional Intercity trains to and from London that are run by DfT Intercity franchises

4) Both have internal Regional Express services (for the time being, as Scotland is upgrading those to traditional Intercity routes subject to when the saga of the refurbished HSTs have been completed)

5) There are very few profitable routes for both (Edinburgh - Glasgow via Falkirk High, trains via Cardiff and the Marches for Wales?) outwith the two or three largest cities, with cross subsidy required owing to the rural geography of both Scotland and Wales.

All of the above are not exhaustive - those are the things I could think of.

I can’t disagree with any of those points.

 

[Macwomble]

I feel that a fairer comparison for the Scotrail franchise would be with the Wales & Borders due to the similarities they share in terms of franchise specification and is directly controlled by the respective devolved legislative bodies.

For example, the operation of both is broadly similar such as:

1) The largest populated city of both have an extensive local network (Strathclyde, Valley Lines)

2) Both have lines and routes that serve rural areas with lengthy single track sections (north of Inverness, Inverness - Perth, Heart of Wales, Cambrian)

3) Both have traditional Intercity trains to and from London that are run by DfT Intercity franchises

4) Both have internal Regional Express services (for the time being, as Scotland is upgrading those to traditional Intercity routes subject to when the saga of the refurbished HSTs have been completed)

5) There are very few profitable routes for both (Edinburgh - Glasgow via Falkirk High, trains via Cardiff and the Marches for Wales?) outwith the two or three largest cities, with cross subsidy required owing to the rural geography of both Scotland and Wales.

All of the above are not exhaustive - those are the things I could think of.

I'd agree too...a much, much fairer comparison.

 

[156478]

To be fair, on the North Clyde lines there are a lot of 6 car sets mainly loaded with fresh air outside of the peaks, in simpler times these used to detach a set at places like Helensburgh, Milngavie or Larkhall, but with the increase in sets needed for the service and the extremely long time before each unit cycles back to the same place, this doesn’t happen as much if at all. The last timetable change, IIRC, saw the Airdrie to Balloch service start running as 6 cars all day & pretty much all of A2B is sixes. There’s no need (other than an operational one) for there to be as many daytime & evening 6 car sets out. Peaks are a very different matter obviously.

it’s a double edged sword, it’s operationally “easier” just to keep sets together rather than leave sets somewhere across the North Clyde and then have to tie them up to something else later on. Saves wear and tear on couplers with the resulting non-multi/multi only restrictions, ecs moves to get sets to Yoker and the shunt moves required, saves drivers for more productive work than crawling into the depot, doing risky tie ups just before the peak and them failing and sets ending up dumped blocking terminal platforms like Airdrie bay platform or Larkhall etc for anything more than a 3 car. It overall makes things more resilient especially during what can be severe disruption on a very delicate network.
But then on the other hand your putting extra exam miles onto 6 car sets that are not even half full out with the peaks. Less opportunities for adhoc sets into the depot for unscheduled attention, Wear and tear on consumables like brake discs, wheel sets, using more electricity, increasing the risk of stop-shorts etc.


nothing is ever easy.

 

[hwl]

I agree, you can’t compare Scotrail with GTR as it’s not a fair comparison.

Try comparing GTR with SWR or SE and that’s a fairer comparison.

The whole point wasn't a matched comparison - HH was pointing out that Scotrail is a relatively low passengers loading operator when another poster quibbled with that description hence the comparison with a high loading, longer peak operator such as GTR where the average loading per train is 2.3x higher but Scotrail service network is 2.4x longer yet the average journey distance is similar --> lots more fresh air being carted around on quite a number of Scotrail services as there isn't a 5.5 fold difference in train lengths...

Comparing to TfW isn't going to high light the low loading levels...

 

[Class 170101]

Not quite, TfL struck a very similar deal for the 710s (same bank leading the lending consortium...) The big difference is very long term deal - the opposite of what DfT has ended up encouraging, the only downside being you need to make sure you know what you want and don't get lemons (DfT were some what annoyed with being stuck with unsuitable stock for decades, hence the end of S.54)

I thought the DfT brought Section 54 to an end as a result of the competition inquiry which found that ROSCOs weren't anti-competitive / profiteering. Rather than it was the DfTs actions that enabled leasing prices to rise due to guarantees (Section 54) that Rolling Stock would stay on from one lease to another rather than via competition.