Advance fares getting cheaper?

[DaveNewcastle]

If I may just continue this :

. . . . . . However, what I suspect is more likely is that less tickets (possibly none from the lowest tiers) will be available from the lower tiers in the first place and then tickets only added to these tiers if some trains have unusually few tickets sold on them. This is what I object to.

TOCs release of Advances, in any quantities and at any prices, has been entirely at their commercial discretion, is unregulated and un-transparent. The Commercial reasons include the choices of the higher priced Advances as well as the ver low headline-priced Advances.
The move towards releasing Advances in 2 or even more batches neither adds to nor subtracts from those commercial pressures, which are always a balancing act between generating revenue, moving demand away from unavailable capacity, attracting new customers and other variables.

It's still not clear what you are objecting to; is it that you "suspect is more likely" that this technique has the effect of raising the net cost of Advances? Something which any TOC has always been able to do to whatever degreee it wishes?

 

[lemonic]

If I may just continue this :TOCs release of Advances, in any quantities and at any prices, has been entirely at their commercial discretion, is unregulated and un-transparent. The Commercial reasons include the choices of the higher priced Advances as well as the ver low headline-priced Advances.
The move towards releasing Advances in 2 or even more batches neither adds to nor subtracts from those commercial pressures, which are always a balancing act between generating revenue, moving demand away from unavailable capacity, attracting new customers and other variables.

It's still not clear what you are objecting to; is it that you "suspect is more likely" that this technique has the effect of raising the net cost of Advances? Something which any TOC has always been able to do to whatever degreee it wishes?

I am perfectly aware that TOCs can do as they please regarding the pricing of their Advance fares and you are right in thinking that I object to potential net price rises in Advance tickets which I can foresee happening.

Currently, if a TOC knows that it can't lower fares again, I think it is more likely that they will err on the side of caution and try and sell some tickets at lower prices. However, if a TOC could lower fares, then they may sell higher-priced Advance tickets first and they know that if they don't sell well, there is always the fallback of lowering the prices.

To give an example, on many routes, at "peak" times the lowest bands of Advance tickets will not be sold. Yet on a Sunday afternoon, another busy time, the lowest bands of Advance tickets will be sold, although you may have to be quick to snap them up. With this new pricing model, I can see the cheapest Advance fares not being released on a Sunday afternoon. On the off-chance they don't sell, the price can be lowered.

Of course, you can say that the TOCs are at liberty to do that now anyway and that is true, but train companies love Advance tickets as they get all the revenue, so they would rather a slightly cheaper Advance was sold than someone pays slightly more for an Off Peak ticket where they don't get as much money. With the new pricing model, the TOCs have less to risk as I have explained in my second paragraph.

 

[DaveNewcastle]

. . . you are right in thinking that I object to potential net price rises in Advance tickets which I can foresee happening.

Well, I guess we'll just have to wait and see, though I'm not sure what tools we have to calculate that, as the proportions actually sold of the quotas actually released at each price tier will not be available to most people. We may still be where we are now - guessing!

Currently, if a TOC knows that it can't lower fares again, I think it is more likely that they will err on the side of caution and try and sell some tickets at lower prices. However, if a TOC could lower fares, then they may sell higher-priced Advance tickets first and they know that if they don't sell well, there is always the fallback of lowering the prices.

But this is where I disagree. There is nothing in the T&SA (nor elsewhere to my knowledge) whist states that a TOC "can't lower fares again". Something which you then appear to acknowledge :

Of course, you can say that the TOCs are at liberty to do that now anyway and that is true,

But this perhaps gets to the heart of your concern:

With the new pricing model, the TOCs have less to risk as I have explained in my second paragraph.

I think, on balance, that I agree with that assessment.

Where I think we'll have to remain in disagreement is that the practice of releasing Advance tickets in more than one phase will bring a net increase in cost to the passenger, something which I doubt very much if the passenger is able to take advantage of travel on the otherwise slow-selling service which has had low-price fares released within the 12-week horizon.

[For the benefit of those interested in this discussion, there is little evidence of this practice of releasing Advances in multiple tranches.]

 

[dzug2]

They sort of do, on the east coast booking engine it give fares between x and y. The trainline based engines used to with no option to click on if it was not available. This was removed following customer feedback. People didn't want to see a £5 far was available if they can't use it!

You can see the complete list on trainline sites (well FGW anyway) by pressing the click here for slower routes tab