• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Alliance Blackpool service to be run by Grand Central and start in 2021

Status
Not open for further replies.

The Ham

Established Member
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
10,325
Then surely they'll have 's'/'u' restrictions added at Nuneaton, to prevent use as a cheap way to London?

I think you miss understood what I was saying.

The train will be carrying people to/from London from Nuneaton (and MK) anyway, so there's going to be space for people from the stations which can get to Nuneaton to head North. As such it doesn't matter if those stations have a service to London.

There may be times when people do use the service to go to London from those stations, but that's not going to be the focus of the OAO when trying to get people to change at Nuneaton to use their services.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

totally

Member
Joined
13 Mar 2012
Messages
58
This is great news for Fylde Coast residents as added to the Virgin Offering it should provide through services throughout the day not just to London, but Nuneaton is an excellent place to change to head East and avoid having to go via Birmingham.

Most importantly the trains will be calling at Poulton-le Fylde and Kirkham and Wesham thus enabling development of these stations and giving outward traffic which is not simply tourist traffic to and from Blackpool. I still consider Virgin are making a mistake by not seeking to tap into that part of the Fylde Coast market since it is has far more potential for attracting long distance passengers than Blackpool because of the socio economic make up of area.
 

LNW-GW Joint

Veteran Member
Joined
22 Feb 2011
Messages
19,666
Location
Mold, Clwyd
Most importantly the trains will be calling at Poulton-le Fylde and Kirkham and Wesham thus enabling development of these stations and giving outward traffic which is not simply tourist traffic to and from Blackpool. I still consider Virgin are making a mistake by not seeking to tap into that part of the Fylde Coast market since it is has far more potential for attracting long distance passengers than Blackpool because of the socio economic make up of area.

There are technical reason why Virgin can't stop long Pendolinos there without further station changes.
The shorter 5-car Voyagers are OK and will continue to call on their 1-a-day service.
 

tbtc

Veteran Member
Joined
16 Dec 2008
Messages
17,882
Location
Reston City Centre
Originally forecast 72% of revenue will be abstracted but ORR fiddled the figures to get 0.3 abstraction ratio (by factoring in extremely discounted fares) enough to squeeze through the NPA test.
Essentially they are forecasting this service will generate £3.6m in new revenue but rob Virgin of £13.1m in revenue.

I know a lot of people on here are excited at the combination of a new loco-hauled service and the prospect of some cheaper fares, but the above maths do smell a bit fishy - they shouldn't be cooking the books like this just to come up with the answer that they want.

There's also the problem that, whilst some people will get a cheaper day out in London, that's a lot of revenue lost to the WCML franchise that presumably would normally be budgeted for - if that continues then TOCs are going to want a bigger slice of guaranteed profit, if they are at danger of losing millions of pounds in revenue just because the ORR want to allow a new company along.

How can running such a short train on valuable WCML paths ever be a good idea? :(

Presumably the same way it's justified running five car trains up and down valuable ECML paths. Personally I'm not wholly sold but hey ho

I'm not sold either!

All these threads about how (5x26m=) 130m long 80xs are unsuitable for long distance services, but when a company come along promising to recycle BR trains, introduce loco-hauled services and flood the market with discounted fares (thus taking millions of pounds in revenue from existing services) people are happy to turn a blind eye to the relatively short length (against a WCML of eleven/twelve coach trains).
 

LNW-GW Joint

Veteran Member
Joined
22 Feb 2011
Messages
19,666
Location
Mold, Clwyd
All these threads about how (5x26m=) 130m long 80xs are unsuitable for long distance services, but when a company come along promising to recycle BR trains, introduce loco-hauled services and flood the market with discounted fares (thus taking millions of pounds in revenue from existing services) people are happy to turn a blind eye to the relatively short length (against a WCML of eleven/twelve coach trains).

The state of the ICWC franchise is such that the WCP bidders can at least take account of GNWR in their bids.
The current Virgin setup expiring next year will not really overlap with GNWR.
The question really is what this will do for the investment case in the classic WCML.
In some respects the ORR is trying to level up the Open Access playing field, with parallels between the ECML and WCML (but nothing elsewhere).
It also keeps DB interested in UK rail for the future.
 

cle

Established Member
Joined
17 Nov 2010
Messages
4,033
I don’t think Virgin can really ‘claim’ to own Blackpool flows, given that others have been after them for so long. They’ve benefited from connections.

Not sure on platform and stock lengths, but I’d have thought aiming to provide direct London service to the likes of Hartford, Winslow, more Trent Valley and other routes like Congleton might appeal, and be without contention.
 

randyrippley

Established Member
Joined
21 Feb 2016
Messages
5,134
No. No chance of that. There are no tilting 125mph locos anyway.
The locos were never intended to tilt.
The plan was non-tilting class 91, with tilting Mk4 coaches
Presumably the driver would need a seat harness.............
 

LNW-GW Joint

Veteran Member
Joined
22 Feb 2011
Messages
19,666
Location
Mold, Clwyd
The locos were never intended to tilt.
The plan was non-tilting class 91, with tilting Mk4 coaches
Presumably the driver would need a seat harness.............

There's no guarantee that would be acceptable on today's WCML, now the line has been optimised for Pendolinos.
And nobody is planning to reengineer Mk4s to tilt.
There's probably more mileage in developing some 125mph non-tilt sections on the WCML (once verboten, now being reconsidered for HS2 stock at least north of Crewe).
 

Sheepy1209

Member
Joined
26 Oct 2011
Messages
202
I live in Blackpool.
My sister lives in Milton Keynes.
My grown-up kids and grandkids live around Hinckley & Nuneaton.

I have no further comment to make....Thank-you ORR and GNWR!!
 

pt_mad

Established Member
Joined
26 Sep 2011
Messages
2,960
Euston compulsory dispatch with RA so no chance there. Not sure about Preston.
If it’s like Grand Central the on board CSAs will be dispatch trained, however, unless one operates the equipment then vaults through the open DVT door as the train moves away, it’s pretty unlikely that model will work with an RA indicator

What are the arrangements for dispatch of Grand Central? Do they self dispatch at York?

If so it's quite surprising if everything else has to be dispatched at York although I'm not sure of that?

Who does booked assists joining and alighting Grand Central services and leaving stations etc? Grand Central must have to pay station access fees to the tocs?

I'm definitely disappointed at the lack of calls at any stations between Nuneaton and Preston. Places like Crewe, Stoke-on-Trent and Stafford have some competition in the form of hourly VTWC vs hourly semi-fast WMT, but prices are still nowhere near as regularly at the same levels that places like Birmingham and Rugby enjoy.

If there's only the capacity and paths to serve one stop, I see no reason why Nuneaton, a small town of 70,000, should be this stop, rather than a station with more connecting services, such as the above stations, which also have several times the population each.

There are a couple's of issues at play here meaning Nuneaton is having the calls.
The services needed to be not primarily revenue abstractive. I.e. more business needed to be new growth and not existing passengers than was not. Nuneaton is probably one with a lot of potential after losing the off peak fast services in 2008. It will reinstate some sort of off peak express standard London service which most towns of its size on a mainline have. Virgin chose not to call in the weekday middle off peak so an OA will. Benefit. There's also the passenger traffic which will potentially be given improved connections going to the far north of England and Scotland, from Leicester and East Anglia.

Secondly Nuneaton has platforms on the fast lines. Which means the paths worked. Tamworth and Lichfield would not have worked in the end because it involves going off onto the slow lines for some 8 miles just to call, and potentially losing the fast path to Crewe.

If choosing Stafford or Crewe instead, it's a case of they may have failed the revenue abstraction test as these towns already have a good fast service north and south. And it's supposed to be predominantly new business.

Then there's the economic factors and the potential economic benefits such a new service could offer a town like Nuneaton over say Stafford or Crewe which are already served by express trains. It's about inclusion and helping to bring more prosperity to areas and Nuneaton is the standout station for not already having an off peak intercity grade service.

Re it's population. As said by posters it's standalone population probably lies 85000 to 90000 with new house building. It's catchment would include Bedworth a fair sized town in itself and arguably Hinckley as well, another decent sized town only about 6 miles away, for mainline services.
There's also the rural catchment and South West Leicestershire villages with the Leicestershire border being only about 3 miles from the outskirts of the town of Nuneaton.

And Nuneaton is actually a larger town than Rugby, which is already served all day by intercity type trains. In fact it's larger than Stafford and Crewe as well. Couldn't see it making sense keep adding more mainline calls at Stafford and Crewe and leaving Nuneaton to just stay as it is indefinitely. Things will be more levelled out in terms of calls. Although Rugby Stafford and Crewe will still remain far better served.

Smaller towns in the ECML and GWML have a far superior mainline service than Nuneaton curently has. It made sense path wise, revenue abstraction wise and economic benefits wise so good on Nuneaton hope it all goes through for GNWR.
 
Last edited:

ForTheLoveOf

Established Member
Joined
7 Oct 2017
Messages
6,416
these towns already have a good fast service north
Crewe, yes. Stafford, however, only has services to Manchester, Liverpool and Crewe to the north. It sorely lacks a through service further north, which inevitably means that early morning and late evening journey opportunities to/from the north are inhibited by the rather poor service to/from Crewe at those times. Stafford has plenty of platforms to accommodate many more services than it currently sees.

Stafford has a large catchment area as a station, far more than just the town itself, since there are no stations between it and Crewe on the western side of Stoke-on-Trent. Many smaller villages etc. feed into it.
 

nuneatonmark

Member
Joined
5 Aug 2014
Messages
471
This is great news, all we need now is GNWR to sort everything out - timings, people, trains etc etc! I really hope this happens but thee have been false dawns before.
 

mallard

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2009
Messages
1,304
Only thing I'd say is they'll have to be careful about their brand name; having "London Northwestern Railway" and "Great North Western Railway" operating on the same route is a recipe for confused passengers. Especially since the audio quality of station/train PA systems is notoriously poor. I'd suggest they go for something substantially different (after all "West Coast Trains Limited" bears little resemblance to "Virgin Trains").

We'd rather not have people suffering the railway's standard "severe financial penalties for minor and easily made mistakes" policy because passengers heard "unintelligable north western service" and boarded what they thought was their train.
 

LNW-GW Joint

Veteran Member
Joined
22 Feb 2011
Messages
19,666
Location
Mold, Clwyd
Virgin chose not to call in the weekday middle off peak so an OA will. Benefit. There's also the passenger traffic which will potentially be given improved connections going to the far north of England and Scotland, from Leicester and East Anglia.

Virgin didn't "choose" not to call at Nuneaton, it's a feature of the VHF timetable dreamed up by DfT and NR to cut key journey times to big cities.
DfT also "chose" to give the TV off-peak services to LM/WMT in order to make the hourly local service economic from the previous basket case operation.
Also today, Virgin is constrained by the stock it had in 2012 and could only squeeze out 3 off-peak services to Blackpool in rather poor paths.
Yes, GNWR is exploiting awkward gaps in the timetable, but it's not Virgin's fault that they have not served these places better.
You should really blame the VHF timetable and the DfT's bungling of the 2012 franchise which has prevented any new stock for ICWC since.
The WCP bids might (just might) throw up something better in the next franchise, but we'll have to wait 12 months to find out.
 

Starmill

Veteran Member
Joined
18 May 2012
Messages
23,378
Location
Bolton
If it offers us mere passengers cheaper fares I am all for it.
Yes - IF. Competition has offered customers making journeys on the Shrewsbury to Birmingham axis a 1% reduction in fares (that's right - 1%!!) in the name of competition. That includes the disadvantage of more restrictions. Elsewhere, Grand Central offer savings of 65%. There's no way to force competition to result in pro-customer outcomes. It might be good for a few people but, but it will still be primarily abstractive. And there is absolutely no guarantee it will be what you or I consider cheap.
 

ForTheLoveOf

Established Member
Joined
7 Oct 2017
Messages
6,416
It also keeps DB interested in UK rail for the future.
I'd have thought this more or less rules them out of winning the West Coast Partnership (WCP) though. A significant conflict of interest if there ever was one! Alternatively they might be forced to sell off this operation as a condition of getting the WCP.
 

Ianno87

Veteran Member
Joined
3 May 2015
Messages
15,215
Stafford has a large catchment area as a station, far more than just the town itself, since there are no stations between it and Crewe on the western side of Stoke-on-Trent. Many smaller villages etc. feed into it.

Wouldn't those villages just drive to Crewe to go north?
 

LNW-GW Joint

Veteran Member
Joined
22 Feb 2011
Messages
19,666
Location
Mold, Clwyd
I'd have thought this more or less rules them out of winning the West Coast Partnership (WCP) though. A significant conflict of interest if there ever was one! Alternatively they might be forced to sell off this operation as a condition of getting the WCP.

Arriva didn't make the short list for WCP so they are not in the competition.
We'll see if they are interested in the East Coast equivalent when that gets advertised again.
XC comes up for renewal next year.
 

DarloRich

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Oct 2010
Messages
29,293
Location
Fenny Stratford
Yes - IF. Competition has offered customers making journeys on the Shrewsbury to Birmingham axis a 1% reduction in fares (that's right - 1%!!) in the name of competition. That includes the disadvantage of more restrictions. Elsewhere, Grand Central offer savings of 65%. There's no way to force competition to result in pro-customer outcomes. It might be good for a few people but, but it will still be primarily abstractive. And there is absolutely no guarantee it will be what you or I consider cheap.

Agreed - however we do have competition on the Rugby/MK > Euston run and that delivers decent prices and good services. it keeps the TOC's "honest" - I want to see more of that where possible. What do capitalist supermen like Virgin have to fear from competition? Surely they can crush this tiny upstart company with the might of their PR machine, service quality and speed. What they don't want to do is compete on price.
 

jayah

On Moderation
Joined
18 Apr 2011
Messages
1,889
Why do we need this as well as the Virgin service? What happened to "not primarily abstractive"?
On the one hand it is privatised.

On the other it is a cosy monopoly that expects the government to protect it from competition, indemnify it from factors like the weather through Network Rail and cap and collar it's exposure to the economy.
 

WatcherZero

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2010
Messages
10,272
You should really blame the VHF timetable and the DfT's bungling of the 2012 franchise which has prevented any new stock for ICWC since.
The WCP bids might (just might) throw up something better in the next franchise, but we'll have to wait 12 months to find out.

My reading of the franchise spec was that they were going out of their way not to have new rolling stock ordered before 2026 (possibly as they want to avoid the situation of over ordering stock with no long term home), similar to XC the spec was written that they would rather see services and calls cut back to reduce demand rather than bidders proposing new fleets or extra services, and also possibly declassifying yet more 1st class seating. Really it smelt like the No-growth Northern and Welsh franchises of yonder. Bidders could possibly concentrate on station improvements instead or extra onboard luxuries (ala Wi-fi/media server, refurbishing buffet cars, etc...)
 

The Ham

Established Member
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
10,325
What are the arrangements for dispatch of Grand Central? Do they self dispatch at York?

If so it's quite surprising if everything else has to be dispatched at York although I'm not sure of that?

Who does booked assists joining and alighting Grand Central services and leaving stations etc? Grand Central must have to pay station access fees to the tocs?



There are a couple's of issues at play here meaning Nuneaton is having the calls.
The services needed to be not primarily revenue abstractive. I.e. more business needed to be new growth and not existing passengers than was not. Nuneaton is probably one with a lot of potential after losing the off peak fast services in 2008. It will reinstate some sort of off peak express standard London service which most towns of its size on a mainline have. Virgin chose not to call in the weekday middle off peak so an OA will. Benefit. There's also the passenger traffic which will potentially be given improved connections going to the far north of England and Scotland, from Leicester and East Anglia.

Secondly Nuneaton has platforms on the fast lines. Which means the paths worked. Tamworth and Lichfield would not have worked in the end because it involves going off onto the slow lines for some 8 miles just to call, and potentially losing the fast path to Crewe.

If choosing Stafford or Crewe instead, it's a case of they may have failed the revenue abstraction test as these towns already have a good fast service north and south. And it's supposed to be predominantly new business.

Then there's the economic factors and the potential economic benefits such a new service could offer a town like Nuneaton over say Stafford or Crewe which are already served by express trains. It's about inclusion and helping to bring more prosperity to areas and Nuneaton is the standout station for not already having an off peak intercity grade service.

Re it's population. As said by posters it's standalone population probably lies 85000 to 90000 with new house building. It's catchment would include Bedworth a fair sized town in itself and arguably Hinckley as well, another decent sized town only about 6 miles away, for mainline services.
There's also the rural catchment and South West Leicestershire villages with the Leicestershire border being only about 3 miles from the outskirts of the town of Nuneaton.

And Nuneaton is actually a larger town than Rugby, which is already served all day by intercity type trains. In fact it's larger than Stafford and Crewe as well. Couldn't see it making sense keep adding more mainline calls at Stafford and Crewe and leaving Nuneaton to just stay as it is indefinitely. Things will be more levelled out in terms of calls. Although Rugby Stafford and Crewe will still remain far better served.

Smaller towns in the ECML and GWML have a far superior mainline service than Nuneaton curently has. It made sense path wise, revenue abstraction wise and economic benefits wise so good on Nuneaton hope it all goes through for GNWR.

As well as the housing MIRA have been doing a fair amount of building over the last few years.
 

pt_mad

Established Member
Joined
26 Sep 2011
Messages
2,960
Virgin didn't "choose" not to call at Nuneaton, it's a feature of the VHF timetable dreamed up by DfT and NR to cut key journey times to big cities.
DfT also "chose" to give the TV off-peak services to LM/WMT in order to make the hourly local service economic from the previous basket case operation.
Also today, Virgin is constrained by the stock it had in 2012 and could only squeeze out 3 off-peak services to Blackpool in rather poor paths.
Yes, GNWR is exploiting awkward gaps in the timetable, but it's not Virgin's fault that they have not served these places better.
You should really blame the VHF timetable and the DfT's bungling of the 2012 franchise which has prevented any new stock for ICWC since.
The WCP bids might (just might) throw up something better in the next franchise, but we'll have to wait 12 months to find out.

There's no blame to be had. It's just fact they don't call in the off peak during the daytime. It doesn't affect me personally as I don't live there but for whatever reason they don't call and another operator now wants to call.
But note that when FirstGroup were awarded the West Coast franchise in 2012 (later withdrawn) they proposed more calls at all Trent Valley stations as part of their bid. So presumably some of it does or did come down to Virgin's discretion. Note that Lichfield TV has a few more fast calls than Tamworth does, at one off times of day, which was not part of the clockface VHF timetable. But they have a politically strong railgroup and catchment who are active at pushing for more services. So this itself demonstrates where there's will, new stops can be added even if not in the clock face VHF timetable. I recall in 2016 a call at Nuneaton was added onto a Manchester to London (via Stoke) around 9.45. So the operator must have some clout if they want to make extra stops as this shows. Otherwise it'd be not possible due to VHF.

I'm not sure GNWR are exploiting gaps. There were supposed to be two spare paths after Norton Bridge upgrade which was part of the idea for Norton Bridge. And they havnt ended up being used except for the several VT Blackpool's. One is supposed to be empty for performance but the other one is the one being proposed for use here. Makes sense to use it and didn't seem like VT would make full use of all the possible paths.
 

AndrewE

Established Member
Joined
9 Nov 2015
Messages
5,097
...[Stafford and] Crewe which are already served by express trains...
maybe, but not to "the north."

Crewe, yes. Stafford, however, only has services to Manchester, Liverpool and Crewe to the north.
Crewe does not have a good service northwards, especially if you consider the traffic feeding in from Shrewsbury & S Wales and also from Stoke and points east. Apart from the locals and the direct Euston services to Liverpool and Manchester there is only one train an hour northbound from Crewe on the WCML proper. That comes from London via Brum and is often rammed before it gets to Crewe.
It's a big disappointment that the new Blackpool service won't call at Crewe.
 

DenmarkRail

Member
Joined
13 Jun 2016
Messages
665
Wouldn't those villages just drive to Crewe to go north?

No, it takes too long to drive to Crewe from the 'villages'... On top of that with parking, it just isn't worth it...

maybe, but not to "the north."


Crewe does not have a good service northwards, especially if you consider the traffic feeding in from Shrewsbury & S Wales and also from Stoke and points east. Apart from the locals and the direct Euston services to Liverpool and Manchester there is only one train an hour northbound from Crewe on the WCML proper. That comes from London via Brum and is often rammed before it gets to Crewe.
It's a big disappointment that the new Blackpool service won't call at Crewe.

Oh wow! Crewe only has 1 train an hour to stations further north than Manchester?! We get 3 a day in Stafford! A Blackpool service would at least give us a (more useful) regularish train to Preston.
 

AndrewE

Established Member
Joined
9 Nov 2015
Messages
5,097
Oh wow! Crewe only has 1 train an hour to stations further north than Manchester?! We get 3 a day in Stafford! A Blackpool service would at least give us a (more useful) regularish train to Preston.
And how many services connect in at Stafford that aren't through trains to cities further north? None, apart from the LNWR stopper from Euston to Crewe via the TV and Stoke, I think. I do agree though, that Stafford needs better WCML northbound services, if only to give connections to the Lake District and Western Scotland off trains from the south-west (as it had in the 1970s.) As I have said before, "Fast to London" is a curse as far as people travelling around the rest of the country are concerned...
 

pt_mad

Established Member
Joined
26 Sep 2011
Messages
2,960
Was it ever a case of whether to have the intermediate stops at Milton Keynes and Nuneaton or Stafford and Crewe? I suspect not .The original plans from years ago with the Polaris trains I believe proposed stops at Milton Keynes, Nuneaton and Crewe (and Fylde coast) . Not sure about Preston. Bit the revenue abstraction issue becomes a major thing at Crewe and Stafford and it'd probably be a fail.

It was always going to be Milton Keynes and Nuneaton because there's an overtaking move at MK, so it has to be platformed on the slow. And then they could make a good business case and sell Nuneaton, because it only has an hourly off peak daytime service on the WCML at the moment and that's the semi fast.

As far as I can gather it was going to be the stops that have been announced or no approval for such a service at all. Stops at other stations en route were never on the proposals as it'd probably be denied altogether.

Its a victory for the underdog and open access and competition against the odds. And it's innovation and additional improved services.
 

Old Hill Bank

Member
Joined
6 Mar 2010
Messages
971
Location
Kidderminster
What a mess this open access (and other ticketing) thing is. The ordinary passenger just wants to get from a to b and have to work out if they can travel on the train or wait for the next one in an hour due to ticket validity issues. If a service is worth running put it in the franchise and let us all travel on all of the services.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top