Analysis of places visited before a positive testr

[david1212]

First if a modorator feels this is better in another thread or a new thread please move / create.

This link on Yahoo from Sky lists the places people who tested positive for Covid-19 between 9th and 15th November had been in the days before the test.

Proportion of all common locations reported in PHE data:

• Supermarket - 18.3%
• Secondary school - 12.7%
• Primary school - 10.1%
• Hospital - 3.6%
• Care home - 2.8%
• College - 2.4%
• Warehouse - 2.2%
• Nursery preschool - 1.8%
• Pub or bar - 1.6%
• Hospitality - 1.5%
• University - 1.4%
• Manufacture engineering - 1.4%
• Household fewer than five - 1.2%
• General practice - 1.1%
• Gym - 1.1%
• Restaurant or cafe - 1.0%

The results are not surprising but any analysis of this by SAGE etc to make links between the places visited and the place(s) where most likely to have contracted Covid-19 must consider other factors not least the time spent in close proximity to members of other households.

For supermarkets 2m distancing is supposed to be being maintained and face coverings worn except by those exempt plus the time period when near to the staff and anyone from another household should be brief. The exception to the latter would be if two or more people from different households are behaving as if from the same household to create an opportunity to mix.

For pub / bar, cafe / restaurant and gym the presumption has to be these vists all were before 5th November. I've excluded hospitality as hotels are allowed to be open for guests to stay in specific circumstances.

 

[yorkie]

First if a modorator feels this is better in another thread or a new thread please move / create.

I think this warrants a new thread, so I've done that

This link on Yahoo from Sky lists the places people who tested positive for Covid-19 between 9th and 15th November had been in the days before the test.

It doesn't seem to say how many days though.

For example, I doubt I ever go more than 5 days without visiting a supermarket, so if I tested positive I would almost certainly have visited a supermarket.

The results are not surprising but any analysis of this by SAGE etc to make links between the places visited and the place(s) where most likely to have contracted Covid-19 must consider other factors not least the time spent in close proximity to members of other households.

Agreed

For supermarkets 2m distancing is supposed to be being maintained and face coverings worn except by those exempt plus the time period when near to the staff and anyone from another household should be brief. The exception to the latter would be if two or more people from different households are behaving as if from the same household to create an opportunity to mix.

Agreed. Based on my limited understanding, the chances of getting the virus from a visit to a supermarket seem remote. I was chatting to a supermarket worker today (for a work-related reason, by phone, not in a supermarket!) and we had a conversation along these lines, that they must be coming into contact with a lot of people, albeit briefly.

Their son also works in the same supermarket and was very ill with a virus soon after he got the job, but did not have Covid. We were wondering if he got that virus (which, at a guess, based on anecdotal evidence, was probably a rhinovirus) at the supermarket. Of course there is no way to know.

For pub / bar, cafe / restaurant and gym the presumption has to be these vists all were before 5th November. I've excluded hospitality as hotels are allowed to be open for guests to stay in specific circumstances.

Sounds like they are going back a fair few days then, which is only right given the incubation period can be quite long (hence the long quarantine period). But the longer you have to go back, the less meaningful the data is.

I also am not convinced that much transmission occurs at secondary school.

At my school, in all cases of children and staff being very ill that I know of, they have had a different virus (probably a rhnivorus; and in the case of a colleague being hospitalised, this was proven by a test) and in all cases of children testing positive for Sars-Cov-2, there have been no known cases of other children who were 'contacts' at the school developing symptoms (yes, most people are asymptomatic so some may have been infected, but if so they didn't go on to infect anyone else who was symptomatic, that we know of).

So, unless my school is a complete outlier, my conclusion is there is either not that much transmission at secondary schools, or an astronomical proportion of secondary students remain asymptomatic and of those, a lot don't go on to infect people who become symptomatic.

 

[northernchris]

Surprised that supermarkets account for such a high percentage although I do wish they would revert to the one person per household rule again. I'd heard reports of people arranging to meet in shops though once they were prohibited from meeting indoors then in hospitality settings, so there may be some truth in this

 

[yorkie]

Surprised that supermarkets account for such a high percentage ...

On the contrary; I'm surprised only 18.3% of people visited supermarkets in a several day period!

I am making the assumption that the term "supermarket" in this context includes smaller shops, such as local Co-Ops, and not just large supermarkets, given there isn't any other category such shops could come into.

 

[Richard Scott]

So, unless my school is a complete outlier, my conclusion is there is either not that much transmission at secondary schools, or an astronomical proportion of secondary students remain asymptomatic and of those, a lot don't go on to infect people who become symptomatic.

My local school has just had its first case, was picked up from a family member so still no recoded infections by transmission within the school.