Another pacer killing maths thread...

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Nym

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Having gained new information about EGIP's movements of Diesel stock, I'm feeling compelled to do some maths.

The current pacer fleet sits at: 140

Northern: 102
ATW: 30
FGW: 8

Now, we all (I hope) are under the belief that Class 142 units cannot live past the DDA regulations, with their fleet standing at 94. I have heard roumor that the Class 143 and 144 units might have slightly longer in them as the're in better condition. So we'll work on the 142 fleet first when it comes to raw numbers.

For the initital workings though, lets just say a pacer is a pacer, and assume (perhaps wrongly) that all pacers are equal (including the 3 car ones, this may come back later).

Now, this is what I have been told about EGIP.

About 50 units.

So this can be taken into account soon.

First lets look at comited electrification schemes and enhancements with a middle of the road outlook on growth requirements and stock ordering, assuming the IEP will be going ahead and Bi-Modes will roam the Great Western (If not, one can assume the use of shortened HSTs with power doors in lieu of this until the XC and MML lines gain some wires for 22x units to GW).

Groups of units that will be replaced as a result of this include those used on the following flows, note: I am including Crossrail electrification and not the Thames branches.

Great Western Turbos
Some Bristol based Diesel Commuter stock.

So, working from current timetables, I have worked out before that the Turbo fleet at Reading would need to remain 16 to 18 strong to operate the Redhill, Gatwick, Thames Branch and Bournemouth services. Lets air on the side of caution at 18 here.

And around Bristol we're only really looking at Parkway to Temple Meads and Cardiff to Temple Meads being replaced, assuming routes get hacked up as a result, so lets ignore this for now and say we're providing additional capacity by any local displacement.

Lets also now assume that turbos, with the arrival of Class 180 and Bi Mode SET units will only be used on the shorter services radiating from Reading.

This releases a total of 39 turbos from Reading.

If one wishes to over simplify this then this could be exchanged for the 43 class 150s and then be done with it, but we're not doing this at this stage, I'm just going to count this as 39 turbos going spare, for somewhere, and have done with it there.

Next up, Lancs Triangle is also committed and in it's current form using the 2011 timetable as a base releases directly:

Liverpool to Wigan and Blackpool North: 8 units.
Liverpool Lime St to Stalybridge and Warrington Central via Earlstown: 5 units
Hazel Grove - Preston: 4 diagrams (6 units)
Manchester Victoria - Blackpool North: 3 diagrams (5 units)

Manchester Airport - Blackpool North: 4 units (TPE)

And with some hacking at timetables one can release two or three more units from Wigan - Manchester via Bolton. The current internal TPE cascade is being ignored as necessary capacity increase for TPE N.

So this is another 24 units to add into the pot, not taking into account some more creative timetabling and sweating of the line via Eccles that could yield up to an additional 6 units on top of this. Lets not take this into account for now and say 24 units more to add into the pot.

EGIP I don't have a clue on, but on good authority:

About 50 units.

So... to add up now...

GW & Crossrail: 39
Lancs Triangle: ~24-30
EGIP: ~50

So in total, taking the dumb approach we have:

113 units spare to play with.

Now if we take into account the fact that some pacers, such as to Southport run permanently coupled and that some of these units released are 3 car formations, one can probably push that number up a tad higher to perhaps 120 or 130 odd if we're being optimistic.

This is before TPE N Electrification that again, with some creative timetabling can release another 30 - 40 units, and provide the capacity where needed.

So, if TPE N Electrification can be completed on time before the deadline for pacer withdrawal and growth steadies, we might just be able to get away without ordering any more diesels...

This assumes a continued programme of electrification committed into 2030 to facilitate the removal of further diesel rolling stock such as the Class 150 vehicles, unless these undergo a major refit in the next 6 years while pacers are still available to cover long periods of downtime for said re-fitting.

Opinions?

PS: I'm not going into detailed cascades because we could start involving other TOCs and then it would get very complcated. (Such as exchanging turbos from GW into Chiltern for stock that is cleared for other lines)

PPS: Next up on the hit list would be (For releasing frequent stoppey DMUs);
South Wales Electrification
Manchester and Leeds Extended TTW Electrification
Chiltern and Snow Hill Lines

And for LDPE: Midland Mainline and XC Infill.
 
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Eagle

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The cascade from EGIP will be 50-ish units, but you have to bear in mind that a significant proportion of them will stay with Scotrail for strengthening and/or new services. I reckon we won't see more than 35 or so crossing the border.
 

Eagle

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It should be fairly obvious that Scotland is selfish with respect to rolling stock. :P

Look at the 380s. ScotRail gained 38 EMUs, but only five trains were sent to England. (Admittedly they did need an increase because the Airdrie to Bathgate link, with 4tph each way, needed quite a bit of extra rolling stock).
 
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