ATW £170m railway franchise is "flawed"

[WelshBluebird]

Certainly during the peak periods the valley lines are pretty much always really busy.
Off peak times it really depends, but there are plenty of times, especially coming out of Cardiff, where you may struggle to get a seat (granted this has improved now ATW have started using 4 carriages on more services).

Also, in terms of revenue on the lines, I'd imagine a fair bit is lost simply because many stations do not have ticketing facilities and the guard quite often will not reach everyone.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Valley Lines are rammed at peak periods yet they run around at 15 min frequency in off peak with low loadings hence the skew in support as there still crewed, pay track access, use fuel etc

Marginal costs - as the peak cost is what is looked at. Off peak services are assumed to be direct fuel ,wesar and tear and track access , as the crews are more or less "free" having worked peak services.
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Weren't there few reopening proposals in the original Arriva tender....that were promptly poo-pooed by Whitehall bureaucrats.

No - there were not (I speak from a contact who knew the bids) - by the way, the so called "bureaucrats" were more than involved in pushing through the Vale of Glamorgan in its entirety (not cut back to Rhoose) - through a great deal of encouragement in the Rail Passenger Partnership fund bid - though NR took eons to get the line up to scratch for the service to begin. Again , I know the people. Fair play please.

 

[Squaddie]

We did a study on Cwmbran/Abergavenny compared with BR who ran 19 trains in 91/92 with now 29 trains at face value 50% more trains but when you analysed it the number of peak trains in both periods was 5. the extra 10 are all off peak. So 50% more running cost but the revenue curve didn't follow as off peak is full of club 55, AP etc

The conclusion you have reached is not really justified by the data.

Passengers who have to travel during the peak - such as commuters and other business travellers - will generally do so no matter how (in)frequent the service. They are also more tolerant of crowding on trains, as they expect commuter services to be busy and have no choice but to travel no matter how much they may hate the journey.

On the other hand, increasing the off-peak service may encourage people to make more leisure journeys than they otherwise would, or to choose the train over the bus or car.

Thus, it is quite possible that increasing off-peak services will raise more additional revenue than increasing peak services.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The conclusion you have reached is not really justified by the data.

Passengers who have to travel during the peak - such as commuters and other business travellers - will generally do so no matter how (in)frequent the service. They are also more tolerant of crowding on trains, as they expect commuter services to be busy and have no choice but to travel no matter how much they may hate the journey.

On the other hand, increasing the off-peak service may encourage people to make more leisure journeys than they otherwise would, or to choose the train over the bus or car.

Thus, it is quite possible that increasing off-peak services will raise more additional revenue than increasing peak services.

I should also have said that same 2/3 car formations are used in peak today. In S Wales people do have alternatives to the train as though "bad" Cardiff traffic is relativity less congested than other large UK Cities and the S Wales region is spread out over a wide area and thanks to old welsh office policy is well provided with dual carriageways/bypasses. So acceptance of overcrowding is not as high as in South East.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I should also have said that same 2/3 car formations are used in peak today. In S Wales people do have alternatives to the train as though "bad" Cardiff traffic is relativity less congested than other large UK Cities and the S Wales region is spread out over a wide area and thanks to old welsh office policy is well provided with dual carriageways/bypasses. So acceptance of overcrowding is not as high as in South East.

That is a fair comment - acceptance of overcrowding is different outside the South East - St Albans to London - 20 miles on a fast train is akin to Zone 1 Tube standards for standing in often crush loadings. (and always has been) - in Cardiff I suspect folk feel hard done by for standing from Llandaff or Caerphilly. Standing is commonplance over much greater distances - as extreme as Winchester / Basingstoke to Waterloo.

Interestingly - in Glasgow they try to resource standing as no more than 10 mins - which is increasingly coming under review as economics hit hard.In certain cases , vehicles are dragged from long distances to provide seats near to the capital and Glasgow - in one case from Aberdeen to give seats from Croy!.

 

[jones_bangor]

No - there were not (I speak from a contact who knew the bids) - by the way, the so called "bureaucrats" were more than involved in pushing through the Vale of Glamorgan in its entirety (not cut back to Rhoose) - through a great deal of encouragement in the Rail Passenger Partnership fund bid - though NR took eons to get the line up to scratch for the service to begin. Again , I know the people. Fair play please.

I accept the situation is not black and white, nevertheless, Arriva did propose that Bangor-Caernarfon as a reopening, and this was taken out.

 

[Michael.Y]

Doesn't the Ebbw Valley Line count as a re-opening? Or do you mean a complete re-open, as in new track, signalling etc rather than re-appropriating an extinct freight route?

Also:
1. Bit late for IWJ to carp on about this now, when he's OUT of government and no-longer responsible for transport....

2. How the hell were the WAG and ATW meant to predict unexpected passenger growth numbers 10 years ago when the franchise was awarded?

3. He's the one who was in charge when the WAG Express was introduced, which runs from Ynys Mon (his constituency) to Cardiff in super fast time! Hmm......coincidence?

 

[Sun!]

The Valleys Lines services can indeed be very busy off peak. Even on the four carriage services most seats can be taken, at peak theres standing room only. The guard often will do around 1/2 a carriage before another station and much revenue is lost simply due to people not paying.

Today I took the train from Merthyr Tydfil to Wrexham. The train from Merthyr to Cardiff was moderatly busy all the way from Merthyr with people getting on and off throughout the route. The Holyhead train was rammed with many people standing fro Newport to Shrewsbury. With the Cardiff and Shrewsbury-Wrexham legs also being very busy- and this a early afternoon train, this being on a 3 car 175. This I have found is a regular occurence- the Welsh Marches line can be very busy at all times.

 

[fairlie]

3. He's the one who was in charge when the WAG Express was introduced, which runs from Ynys Mon (his constituency) to Cardiff in super fast time! Hmm......coincidence?

And I think someone or other also introduced an aeroplane on a similar route...

 

[merlodlliw]

I accept the situation is not black and white, nevertheless, Arriva did propose that Bangor-Caernarfon as a reopening, and this was taken out.

First I heard of that.
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Doesn't the Ebbw Valley Line count as a re-opening? Or do you mean a complete re-open, as in new track, signalling etc rather than re-appropriating an extinct freight route?

The reopening of the Ebbw Vale line was nothing to do with ATW,it was all Objective One money.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
1. Bit late for IWJ to carp on about this now, when he's OUT of government and no-longer responsible for transport....

2. How the hell were the WAG and ATW meant to predict unexpected passenger growth numbers 10 years ago when the franchise was awarded?

3. He's the one who was in charge when the WAG Express was introduced, which runs from Ynys Mon (his constituency) to Cardiff in super fast time! Hmm......coincidence?

1.Agree.
2.It was a 15 year contract,written by idiots at the DFT,any one knows you expand or die & ATW as a business should have known that.
3.Again I agree & the WAGAIR fiasco,one bidder, now a tourist flight to fill seats.

 

[Squaddie]

I accept the situation is not black and white, nevertheless, Arriva did propose that Bangor-Caernarfon as a reopening, and this was taken out.

A restored rail service between Bangor and Caernarfon would have significant benefits, for local people and tourists alike, but it is very unlikely ever to happen because much of the trackbed has been redeveloped. I doubt there was ever a serious proposal to rebuild the line.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Doesn't the Ebbw Valley Line count as a re-opening? Or do you mean a complete re-open, as in new track, signalling etc rather than re-appropriating an extinct freight route?

Also:
1. Bit late for IWJ to carp on about this now, when he's OUT of government and no-longer responsible for transport....

2. How the hell were the WAG and ATW meant to predict unexpected passenger growth numbers 10 years ago when the franchise was awarded?

3. He's the one who was in charge when the WAG Express was introduced, which runs from Ynys Mon (his constituency) to Cardiff in super fast time! Hmm......coincidence?

"Unexpected" - no we lobbied hard for the franchise to accommodate the growth we knew was coming, numerous meetings attended and letters were written, by "we" I mean SARPA and I was a member of RPC Wales at the time. The initial bids in 2001 were very interesting full of expansion ideas from Arriva and others then the goalposts were moved and London decided on this no growth nonense and stuck to the mantra despite all and sundry telling them they'd got it wrong. Passenger Focus today is different beast to the old RPC's - the SRA lobbied hard to kill off RPC as it questioned them and they didn't like it.

 

[Michael.Y]

I didn't mean to infer that growth itself was unexpected (after all, we live in a country of constant and continuing population increase) rather that the rate of growth itself was a bit higher than expected.

Perhaps DB will start to take us in the right direction once they work out what they want to do with us.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I didn't mean to infer that growth itself was unexpected (after all, we live in a country of constant and continuing population increase) rather that the rate of growth itself was a bit higher than expected.

Perhaps DB will start to take us in the right direction once they work out what they want to do with us.

I sat opposite an SRA bod who blatantly said that they had analysed population trends, travel trends etc and rail use was going to go into decline and we in Wales should be thankful that we had what we had as in reality they should be taking funding and resources away to fit what will actually happen!

 

[Michael.Y]

I sat opposite an SRA bod who blatantly said that they had analysed population trends, travel trends etc and rail use was going to go into decline and we in Wales should be thankful that we had what we had as in reality they should be taking funding and resources away to fit what will actually happen!

Bet he got an OBE.

 

[tbtc]

ATW isn't the only "no growth" franchise

 

[Gareth Marston]

First I heard of that.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


1.Agree.
2.It was a 15 year contract,written by idiots at the DFT,any one knows you expand or die & ATW as a business should have known that.
3.Again I agree & the WAGAIR fiasco,one bidder, now a tourist flight to fill seats.

1- to be fair I'm told IWJ did ask his officials to look into what could be done back in 07/08 the answer he got boiled down to it being too hard and would cost lots of money. Many esp in the early years of the franchise assumed ATW must be in breach of it because things were so bad, as it turned out ATW were never in breach of the franchise terms as the thing was that poorly thought out. In 05 when they introduced their own completely revised timetable they made sure plenty of recovery margins were put in the schedules and apart from Cambrian performance up to Dec 08 they are in compliance. Hence you couldn't fairly kick them out- and the cost to buy them out with 10 years left was horrendous.

 

[Michael.Y]

1- to be fair I'm told IWJ did ask his officials to look into what could be done back in 07/08 the answer he got boiled down to it being too hard and would cost lots of money. Many esp in the early years of the franchise assumed ATW must be in breach of it because things were so bad, as it turned out ATW were never in breach of the franchise terms as the thing was that poorly thought out. In 05 when they introduced their own completely revised timetable they made sure plenty of recovery margins were put in the schedules and apart from Cambrian performance up to Dec 08 they are in compliance. Hence you couldn't fairly kick them out- and the cost to buy them out with 10 years left was horrendous.

There we go then. IWJ must know all this, yet to carp on about it now he's not in government stinks slightly.

I'd love to know what his alternative option is. Re-nationalisation probably, if only just for the W&B franchise area, which would be difficult, as the WAG doesn't have jurisdiction in England.

 

[Sun!]

A type of re-nationalisation certainly is on the cards for the Wales and Borders franchise come 2018. It is Labours favoured option and Plaid Cymru offical party policy, the Lib Dems are also bound to support it. Some sort of Tren Cymru/ Wales Rail is on the cards, for the better IMO.

Of course it will also be intresting to see what happens to Scotrail in 2014, with the SNP, Scottish Labour and the Greens saying they support public ownership of the railways.

 

[tbtc]

A type of re-nationalisation certainly is on the cards for the Wales and Borders franchise come 2018. It is Labours favoured option and Plaid Cymru offical party policy, the Lib Dems are also bound to support it. Some sort of Tren Cymru/ Wales Rail is on the cards, for the better IMO.

Of course it will also be intresting to see what happens to Scotrail in 2014, with the SNP, Scottish Labour and the Greens saying they support public ownership of the railways.

The problem being that Scotrail's services are wholly within Scotland (apart from a bi-hourly bit from Gretna to Carlisle and a handful of Sleepers a week to Euston).

But despite ATW having half the number of trains, they obviously need to cross into England on a number of services (e.g. Holyhead - Chester - Wrexham - Shrewsbury - Cardiff).

Not a problem in the current set up, of course, but it would be a problem if you wanted a state controlled Tren Cymru (as they would be the only TOC running between some English stations, e.g. around Shrewsbury).

Do these English stations not get invested at, because they are the "wrong" side of the border? Or does the TOC invest at all stations as required, but get criticised for "Welsh" money being used to improve station facilities in Shropshire etc?

Sorry, but I can't see how a state controlled Welsh TOC could work.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

A type of re-nationalisation certainly is on the cards for the Wales and Borders franchise come 2018. It is Labours favoured option and Plaid Cymru offical party policy, the Lib Dems are also bound to support it. Some sort of Tren Cymru/ Wales Rail is on the cards, for the better IMO.

Of course it will also be intresting to see what happens to Scotrail in 2014, with the SNP, Scottish Labour and the Greens saying they support public ownership of the railways.

Wouldn't work.
By then the West Coast and Great Western franchises will have been relet for 15 years, which locks in DfT/NR/ORR contracts on the main lines.
The WG has no remit in England, and you could not disentangle the funding for the significant ATW services outside Wales.
And then there's freight. What has the WG got to do with Avonmouth-Rugeley coal flows via the Severn Tunnel, or Holyhead-Sellafield nuclear traffic?

I suppose it might just work for the self-contained Valley Lines and some rural lines, but I don't think that is what the politicians want.

And on top of that, remember the Merseyrail experience. They were dead keen to have control of their system - until they saw the costs and liabilities.

 

[Sun!]

Wouldn't work.
By then the West Coast and Great Western franchises will have been relet for 15 years, which locks in DfT/NR/ORR contracts on the main lines.
The WG has no remit in England, and you could not disentangle the funding for the significant ATW services outside Wales.
And then there's freight. What has the WG got to do with Avonmouth-Rugeley coal flows via the Severn Tunnel, or Holyhead-Sellafield nuclear traffic?

Im refering to what is now the Arriva Trains Wales franchise being 'nationalised'.

 

[tbtc]

Im refering to what is now the Arriva Trains Wales franchise being 'nationalised'.

...but a significant part of the Wales & Borders franchise involves England (which the WAG have no authority over).

No getting away from it.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Im refering to what is now the Arriva Trains Wales franchise being 'nationalised'.

Well the Wales & Borders franchise has 3 main components, NR access charges, ROSCO stock leasing costs, and operator costs (run the trains and stations, collect the fares).

If the NR bit is left as it is, you have the other two to play with.
What expertise do WG have in leasing or running trains?

You might say the EC franchise is currently "nationalised" but in practice it means nothing.
There is still a DfT/ORR-managed TOC in charge with all the relevant costs.

I can understand dissatisfaction with the current setup, particularly the long franchise and inability to change anything significant.
But "nationalisation" is a pipedream unless you change ownership in some way, and there is no money for that.
Nor, I would say, is there any convincing argument that public-sector management would do any better than ATW.
And don't anyone start on ATW being owned by the German government. It isn't.

The WG already have full day-to-day management of the franchise.
What more do they want?

 

[merlodlliw]

Im refering to what is now the Arriva Trains Wales franchise being 'nationalised'.

It wont be nationalised, WG do not have the money to buy the stock,which belongs to non Welsh Companies, WG can not buy Chester/Shrewsbury & Hereford stations along with other stations in England it controls.

A not for profit is the only answer to the current system, full State Ownership will not happen, only extreme left wingers want it.

Bob

 

[Squaddie]

A not for profit is the only answer to the current system, full State Ownership will not happen, only extreme left wingers want it.

I don't think that's true; there are a lot of people who believe that state ownership is the most appropriate way of running a nation's rail network.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The pressure for change will only grow over the remaining years of the franchise as theres no sign of growth in demand easing off which the current franchise can't cope or deal with.

 

[tbtc]

I don't think that's true; there are a lot of people who believe that state ownership is the most appropriate way of running a nation's rail network.

State ownership is one thing, but the WAG directly controlling a franchise which involves a reasonable amount of running in England would never work.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

I don't think that's true; there are a lot of people who believe that state ownership is the most appropriate way of running a nation's rail network.

Very much agree with this......but weren't there a number of obstacles put in the original privatisation deal that would make it almost impossible (costly) for the railways to be re-nationalised? The Tories knew that they were going to lose the 1997 election......

 

[Gareth Marston]

Very much agree with this......but weren't there a number of obstacles put in the original privatisation deal that would make it almost impossible (costly) for the railways to be re-nationalised? The Tories knew that they were going to lose the 1997 election......

Its easy to renationalise if the will is there, you just wait to all the franchises come up for renewal and not let them out again, NR is already in reality nationalized and as far as rolling stock is concerned anything new is bought by the state company OK it will take a while to flush ROSCO's out but it wont cost a penny.