Bakerloo Line Extension to Lewisham

Discussion in 'London Underground' started by rebmcr, 31 Jul 2017.

  1. rebmcr

    rebmcr Established Member

    Messages:
    2,907
    Joined:
    15 Nov 2011
    Location:
    Cambridge
    TfL have today published their report on the consultations for the BLE.

    tfl.gov.uk/bakerloo-extension

     
  2. Registered users do not see these banners - join or log in today!

    Rail Forums

     
  3. sprunt

    sprunt Member

    Messages:
    749
    Joined:
    22 Jul 2017
  4. bionic

    bionic Member

    Messages:
    883
    Joined:
    8 Nov 2013
    Considering TFL are completely skint, how is this going to be paid for?
     
  5. jacksouth

    jacksouth New Member

    Messages:
    4
    Joined:
    30 Aug 2018
    Yeah, good question...
     
  6. rebmcr

    rebmcr Established Member

    Messages:
    2,907
    Joined:
    15 Nov 2011
    Location:
    Cambridge
    Supposedly it has a BCR in the 3.5 range, which might well justify borrowing against its revenue uplift — there's potential to steal quite a bit of Southeastern's inner traffic.

    There's also the inevitable property developer partnerships, and tying it into the Deep Tube Upgrade project.
     
  7. Mikey C

    Mikey C Established Member

    Messages:
    2,844
    Joined:
    11 Feb 2013
    Completion date brought forward by 2 years to 2029, which is ambitious!
     
  8. Busaholic

    Busaholic Established Member

    Messages:
    8,348
    Joined:
    7 Jun 2014
    TfL are about to get a credit reference agency downgrade, apparently, which will mean their interest rate payments will increase. We're already waiting to hear how much the current Crossrail overrun will cost them. I suspect 2029 is pie in the sky.
     
  9. Peter C

    Peter C Established Member

    Messages:
    1,586
    Joined:
    13 Oct 2018
    Location:
    Loading...
    Having looked into this, I can't help but ask why the Bakerloo Line?
    Why can't something like the Overground (or even Jubilee Line at a push) be extended? Seems more reasonable than extending the Bakerloo, seen as the Jubilee and Overground are much closer (on the Tube Map anyway)!
     
  10. Dstock7080

    Dstock7080 Established Member

    Messages:
    1,488
    Joined:
    17 Feb 2010
    Location:
    West London
    The Bakerloo Line is due a major signalling upgrade and new trains, an ideal opportunity to expand.
     
  11. bionic

    bionic Member

    Messages:
    883
    Joined:
    8 Nov 2013
    Elephant, with its two platforms and cramped layout has never been an ideal terminus. Jubilee and ELL do not have the capacity in their core sections to take on extra trains feeding in from another branch. The Bakerloo upgrade will provide far more capacity in the central area and give the chance to build a suitable southern terminus that can handle an intensive service.
     
  12. LUYMun

    LUYMun Member

    Messages:
    143
    Joined:
    15 Jul 2018
    Location:
    Hampshire
    Considering the East London section of the London Overground could be extended from New Cross to Hayes and Beckham Junction?
    If they need to 'upgrade' the Bakerloo line, why can't they simply add in one or two extra platforms at E&C?
     
  13. JamesRowden

    JamesRowden Established Member

    Messages:
    1,534
    Joined:
    31 Aug 2011
    Location:
    Ilfracombe
    The Kent Route study highlighted a future lack of capacity for predicted increases in demand for Southeastern Mainline services to Charing Cross and Cannon Street. Merging the Bakerloo Line and the Hayes branch frees up capacity at Charing Cross / Cannon Street. The East London Line services to New Cross are much shorter and less frequent than the Bakerloo Line service to Elephant & Castle, plus the East London Line doesn't run through Central London.

    The passengers on the Hayes branch said that they didn't like the Bakerloo Line Hayes Line merger idea since they wouldn't have through services to London Bridge and Cannon Street.

    I suspect that the new Southeastern franchise specification has Hayes line services running only to Victoria and Charing Cross off-peak so to change the opinions of passengers on the Hayes Line as to whether they would like it to become part of Bakerloo Line or not, plus to allow the additional 2tph of London-Tonbridge-Ashford services specified in the new franchise.
     
  14. VT 390

    VT 390 Established Member

    Messages:
    1,102
    Joined:
    7 Dec 2018
    Even though the Overground is very close at New Cross there is not really he capacity on the Southeastern lines to accommodate the Overground as well (if there was it would be subject to disruption on the whole ELL is there were delays on Southeaster) and there is no space to place new lines in.
    The Jubilee line is quite close however the section between Waterloo and Stratford is overcrowded for most of the day so diverting some services to Lewisham would not be an option especially if a good service level were to operate to Lewisham.
    Also the Bakerloo is one of quieter tube lines (compared to others) so there is more capacity on services.
     
  15. Busaholic

    Busaholic Established Member

    Messages:
    8,348
    Joined:
    7 Jun 2014
    Hayes, Clock House and New Beckenham, in particular, are used by many who would also be able to access Bromley South, Kent House and Beckenham Junction respectively if they wanted Victoria. Given the increase from 2 tph to 4 tph on the Orpington to Victoria service a few years ago, I suspect a lot of passengers have transferred already. I've never lived on the Hayes line, but I was within striking distance for a few years, and I'd think if the service level was attractive enough then the Bakerloo idea might well appeal in the areas nearer to central London i.e.up to about New Beckenham, but possibly not so much in the outer area, with the longer journey.
     
  16. Bucephalus

    Bucephalus Member

    Messages:
    180
    Joined:
    5 Feb 2018
    All I will say is, in the midst of looking for somewhere (that we can afford) to live in London, it would have been pretty handy for the 'loo to run further out than e & c. The same applies to the Victoria line at brixton
     
  17. bionic

    bionic Member

    Messages:
    883
    Joined:
    8 Nov 2013
    Somewhere people can afford to live... like Chatham or Dover? :D
     
  18. jopsuk

    jopsuk Veteran Member

    Messages:
    12,056
    Joined:
    13 May 2008
    The difference is that the Bakerloo has capacity, in the appropriate peak directions, that an extension can use. The Victoria is very much full at Brixton; a southern extension is therefore not viable
     
  19. Aictos

    Aictos On Moderation

    Messages:
    8,436
    Joined:
    28 Apr 2009
    However this is why they were looking at extending the Victoria line to Herne Hill in the first place by removing a key critical capacity restriction by eliminating the need for trains to reverse at Brixton.
     
  20. edwin_m

    edwin_m Veteran Member

    Messages:
    16,415
    Joined:
    21 Apr 2013
    Location:
    Nottingham
    They seem to have solved that one by installing faster crossovers and possibly other measures. LU now appears confident that a 2-platform turnback is not the critical factor in setting maximum capacity.
     
  21. jopsuk

    jopsuk Veteran Member

    Messages:
    12,056
    Joined:
    13 May 2008
    Quite, they're turning back 36tph in the peaks.
     
  22. Bucephalus

    Bucephalus Member

    Messages:
    180
    Joined:
    5 Feb 2018
    Haha, you're right on the money there. We might as well stay in Manchester tbh!
     
  23. bionic

    bionic Member

    Messages:
    883
    Joined:
    8 Nov 2013
    I would mate. London house prices are the pits. If you don't need to be there then you'd be mad to be there... And I'm speaking as a born and bred Londoner. It's a great city but the housing market is a mugs game.
     
  24. deltic

    deltic Established Member

    Messages:
    2,014
    Joined:
    8 Feb 2010
    Victoria line has plenty of capacity leaving Brixton- it is from Stockwell and Vauxhall that it is rammed solid
     
  25. edwin_m

    edwin_m Veteran Member

    Messages:
    16,415
    Joined:
    21 Apr 2013
    Location:
    Nottingham
    Either way it isn't worth extending, because most of the passengers from south of Brixton would want to go north of Stockwell, or change at Stockwell onto the Northern which is probably just as busy.
     
  26. Aictos

    Aictos On Moderation

    Messages:
    8,436
    Joined:
    28 Apr 2009
    However one of the reasons for extending to Herne Hill was also increased connectivity for South Eastern passengers which I believe is a good thing.
     
  27. Busaholic

    Busaholic Established Member

    Messages:
    8,348
    Joined:
    7 Jun 2014
    Not forgetting Thameslink! I do wonder, though, how Herne Hill would cope with the Vic terminating there, both from the point of view of the station layout and of the impact on the area. I've known the area for going on sixty years, and my sister lived in Croxted Road for 25 years. Dulwich College Estates exercise a great deal of control on an area that starts a stone's throw from Herne Hill: I remember my sister seeking to replace a garden fence and the unbelievable rigmarole with their bureaucracy!
     
  28. jopsuk

    jopsuk Veteran Member

    Messages:
    12,056
    Joined:
    13 May 2008
    Reviving this- another round of consultation, yay
    They're now asking for views on more detailed plans for the stations and worksites. They're also now proposing to start the new tunnels at Lambeth North, taking them down St george's Road to go straight along New Kent Road, with brand new platforms.

    The Hayes branch is still on the agenda but as a next phase
     
  29. Busaholic

    Busaholic Established Member

    Messages:
    8,348
    Joined:
    7 Jun 2014
    I'd say the Hayes can is being kicked well down the line. Might disappear behind a bush on Hayes Common, maybe the same one I used to disappear into on school cross country 'runs'. :lol:
     
  30. ijmad

    ijmad Established Member

    Messages:
    1,250
    Joined:
    7 Jan 2016
    Location:
    UK
    TfL suggest that NTfL and resignalling could take the Bakerloo to 27tph in its core, which isn't particularly aspirational given the 36tph achieved on the Victoria line, but it's considerable additional capacity (around 25% with the walkthrough carriages and improved frequency) on a line that isn't that busy compared to the Jubilee/Victoria/Central anyway - which have absolutely no extra capacity - and TfL's forecasts show the Jubilee will still be rammed next decade even with Crossrail open.

    London Overground is also rammed to capacity in the peaks, particularly trains through New Cross Gate, and has no space for passengers from anywhere else. We have an uplift from 8tph to 10tph (thanks to +2 to Crystal Palace) in the next few years but I don't think it'll last out the decade. The ELL could go to 24tph or maybe even higher, but there are hard limits with four southern branches to divide up services. Bringing the Bakerloo to New Cross Gate would divert many passengers who'd board the ELL at that station and create extremely attractive interchange for passengers from further south if the interchange is a good one.

    As others have said, removing the Hayes Line from Southeastern's network creates at least four more paths per hour through Lewisham / St Johns for other services and relief at Beckenham Junction will be welcome too.

    That, and the Bakerloo extension, being orientated more east-west rather than north-south (Hayes part excepted) would create more travel possibilities across without having to go in then out again or take slow busses.

    The only thing I wonder about is whether the Hayes branch will ever require more than 4tph and with maybe another 4tph to Beckenham Junction, where's the other 19tph going to go? Seems like they could take over another line as well, pretty easily. Wondering myself about a route to Crystal Palace via Birkbeck or something. Not sure though.
     
  31. VT 390

    VT 390 Established Member

    Messages:
    1,102
    Joined:
    7 Dec 2018
    If the Bakerloo does take over the Hayes/Beckenham Junction branch then won't the frequency increase be needed to make up for the fact that there will no longer be direct services to London Bridge/Cannon Street but also it it is a frequent Underground service will it attract more people to use it?
     

Share This Page