Boris Johnson Announcement Discussion - 10/05/20

[Trackman]

Where is the change from what has been the case for the last seven weeks with this - we were previously told to work from home where possible, but travelling to work if you can’t work from home was always allowed.

This has puzzled the media too.

 

[Ianno87]

The post refers to Millennials wanting 'lockdown' because they as a group have comfortable homes, and they as a group aren't suffering from from the negative effects of it as much as other generations. This by definition suggests a majority and generally the choice of implies sort of 90% plus. Trust you to bring up minority counter-examples just so you can be contrary, despite my point being clear enough.

The idea that 'milennials' aren't suffering the negative effects of the lockdown as much as older generations is crazy. I also know exactly where Millennials fit, because I'm too young to be one.

Millennians are now at the point where they often have young kids. Like me. Others still live alone. None of which are eaay in this situation.

 

[43066]

The post refers to Millennials wanting 'lockdown' because they as a group have comfortable homes, and they as a group aren't suffering from from the negative effects of it as much as other generations. This by definition suggests a majority and generally the choice of implies sort of 90% plus. Trust you to bring up minority counter-examples just so you can be contrary, despite my point being clear enough.

The idea that 'milennials' aren't suffering the negative effects of the lockdown as much as older generations is crazy. I also know exactly where Millennials fit, because I'm too young to be one.

Getting hung up on age ranges etc. is rather missing the point.

The main thrust of the post you quoted was correct. Those calling for long lockdown often live with families, in houses with gardens. It’s obviously going to be a lot easier for these people to sustain a long lockdown than single people living isolated in small flats.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The post refers to Millennials wanting 'lockdown' because they as a group have comfortable homes, and they as a group aren't suffering from from the negative effects of it as much as other generations. This by definition suggests a majority and generally the choice of implies sort of 90% plus. Trust you to bring up minority counter-examples just so you can be contrary, despite my point being clear enough.

I think you're falling into the "if she weighs the same as a duck she's a witch" fallacy.

What people are saying is basically "the people who want the lockdown to continue are mostly Millennials", and that I think contains some truth - it is my observation that it is mostly people in their late 20s and 30s and mostly female. And probably overridingly those who are coupled up, living in nice houses with gardens, and doing the "secondary" job to the household or no job. And yes, I know many such people - including one case where the person doing the "secondary" job and calling for the lockdown to continue is the male, not the female. Actually, to correct myself, he does no job, he's a "house husband".

That's not the same as saying "most Millennials want the lockdown to continue", which isn't what anyone is saying.

 

[Starmill]

She’s not so good, however, at *listening* to the electorate, who voted convincingly to remain part of the UK

This is a pretty daft suggestion, designed to try to undermine her responses just because you don't like the idea of independence. She hasn't tried to use Covid-19 to make the case for independence, nor has she tried to point to the difference between the messages as a criticisms of English policymakers. Give it a rest. Or if you must, start an appropriate new thread.

 

[BluePenguin]

As discussed in other threads, they're not going to be passing the virus on anyway.

Not even with other children in their class?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Not even with other children in their class?

Potentially not. There's now a fair bit of evidence that, in the main, young (primary age) kids neither get sick nor become asymptomatic spreaders.

 

[Starmill]

That's not the same as saying "most Millennials want the lockdown to continue", which isn't what anyone is saying.

No. I know. Who thinks it is?

What people are saying is basically "the people who want the lockdown to continue are mostly Millennials", and that I think contains some truth - it is my observation that it is mostly people in their late 20s and 30s and mostly female. And probably overridingly those who are coupled up, living in nice houses with gardens, and doing the "secondary" job to the household. And yes, I know many such people - including one case where the person doing the "secondary" job and calling for the lockdown to continue is the male, not the female.

I think you've just made all of that up from your hunch and what's in your Facebook feed. Do you have any evidence at all for that?

 

[Darandio]

Not even with other children in their class?

It's still being debated in the scientific community and there is no certainty yet.

 

[nlogax]

Nicola Sturgeon is very good at repeating the same line, delivering a clear and consistent statement of what she wants to do.
She’s not so good, however, at *listening* to the electorate, who voted convincingly to remain part of the UK

She should be free to provide guidance based on scientific advice that is more relevant in Scotland, which has an estimated R-value of between 0.7 and 1.0..higher than the rest of the UK. Same goes for any devolved government.

 

[BluePenguin]

Potentially not. There's now a fair bit of evidence that, in the main, young (primary age) kids neither get sick nor become asymptomatic spreaders.

If there is even greater evidence of that then schools might open sooner than we think. Education is important, as is for children to develop social skills

 

[muz379]

I think you've just made all of that up from your hunch and what's in your Facebook feed. Do you have any evidence at all for that?

I tend to agree with this , most of the people who I am exposed to who want lockdown to continue in perpetuity are middle aged people , mostly women .

But im not going to come on the internet and assert that there is any basis for that observation to be stated as a trend . Because I know that anecdotal experience is fairly often atypical .

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think you've just made all of that up from your hunch and what's in your Facebook feed. Do you have any evidence at all for that?

Well, of course it's from my Facebook feed, which is the only real contact I've got with friends and family at the moment barring a million Zoom pub quizzes. Where else would you think I'd have got it from? It's an observation based on my wider social group.

 

[MrTurbostar170]

My local garden centre decided that they are opening this morning for some reason, is this really allowed as there wasn't really any specific mention?

 

[Darandio]

My local garden centre decided that they are opening this morning for some reason, is this really allowed as there wasn't really any specific mention?

Garden centres are expecting an announcement in parliament tomorrow with a nod to opening from Wednesday.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

There's no way in a months time they can just sit there having not changed anything. The announcement tonight implied that they were willing to wait several months until it is 'safe' to head out, but I refuse to believe there's not at least one person observant enough on the government to realise the serious, serious economic damage this is causing and I can't see them sitting back and letting this happen whilst the future of this country dies away more literally as every day passes. We NEED to get this country moving again, and whilst I appreciate it's important to protect the vulnerable, the government picked the totally wrong approach to lockdown and instead of reasoning with the public tried to terrorise them inside their homes. If we don't do anything until June or July there'll be little to no economy left by the time we fully get out of this and it's my generation that is going to have to clean up this mess because we were too focused on protecting those who it wouldn't affect as badly. I appreciate my views can come across as a little blunt and selfish, and that's not my intention, of course every life lost in this pandemic is a tragedy and I want to prevent any unnecessary deaths if at all possible, but I refuse to watch my country die away simply because the public were too blinded by fear to get it moving again.

I agree with much of this argument. Not because I’m in the same age group (I’m in the over-40 bracket).
Not because I’m tired of staying home (I’m classed as a key worker and have been travelling on near-empty trains to access my job).
No, it’s because the economy and the taxes that fund our NHS need to function again. There will never be a time when coronavirus deaths reach zero. If you acknowledge that to be the case, then government needs to decide at what level of daily deaths do you lift restrictions?
I’m not saying any level of deaths is acceptable. But if you look at https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/ it can be seen that there were over 28,300 flu-related deaths in one of the recent winters. Now even if you stretch the definition of winter as being 6 months of the year, that equates to over 150 deaths per day, yet nobody would advocate lockdown for flu !

 

[43066]

I tend to agree with this , most of the people who I am exposed to who want lockdown to continue in perpetuity are middle aged people , mostly women .

But im not going to come on the internet and assert that there is any basis for that observation to be stated as a trend . Because I know that anecdotal experience is fairly often atypical .

Lockdown is certainly more popular amongst women then men. There is hard evidence of that in terms of men accounting
for something like eight out of every ten fines being levied for breaches.

It’s common sense that it will be a more popular strategy amongst those who have access to outside space, and social contact with their families (although clearly that can be a double edged sword).

 

[43066]

This is real hyperbole. It's also very unhelpful.

This isn't really true is it? There will have been a contraction of 30 - 35%, some of which will return and some of which won't. It's extremely shocking but it's not the end of the world if the government's recovery package is large enough. If people are still dying in corridors in hospitals however, it will be less likely that we'll make economic recovery. We've discussed this with you already.

I think you grossly underestimate the damage that is being done to the economy. The Bank of England is forecasting the worst recession for three hundred years. I’m fortunate to do a job which is highly unlikely to be affected but I wouldn’t be so blasé as to say “it’s not the end of the world”. I know people who are unemployed, or have taken huge pay cuts on furlough, and now can’t pay their mortgage/rent. They would certainly disagree with you.

Recessions also kill people. The concern a lot of people increasingly have (myself included) is that the focus on preventing deaths from corona virus - apparently at all costs - could well have unintended consequences, increase deaths from other causes, and perhaps even push overall fatality rates up in the long term. Indeed it’s already happening. People are dying on waiting lists for heart and cancer operations which have been cancelled due to the crisis.

 

[Starmill]

If you acknowledge that to be the case, then government needs to decide at what level of daily deaths do you lift restrictions?
I’m not saying any level of deaths is acceptable. But if you look at https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/ it can be seen that there were over 28,300 flu-related deaths in one of the recent winters. Now even if you stretch the definition of winter as being 6 months of the year, that equates to over 150 deaths per day, yet nobody would advocate lockdown for flu !

That link quite literally says that Covid-19 has the potential to kill far more people than flu. We had a similar number of deaths in 'lockdown' as without against flu. That's a rather large difference.

 

[Jozhua]

Millennials in nice houses with gardens? How out of touch are you?

I was referring to the subset of millenials who do have these things.

The post refers to Millennials wanting 'lockdown' because they as a group have comfortable homes, and they as a group aren't suffering from from the negative effects of it as much as other generations. This by definition suggests a majority and generally the choice of implies sort of 90% plus. Trust you to bring up minority counter-examples just so you can be contrary, despite my point being clear enough.

The idea that 'milennials' aren't suffering the negative effects of the lockdown as much as older generations is crazy. I also know exactly where Millennials fit, because I'm too young to be one.

I'm too young to be a millenial, I've noticed a lot between those ages and gen-X, who happen to be living in larger family units who are very pro lockdown.

 

[Jozhua]

Getting hung up on age ranges etc. is rather missing the point.

The main thrust of the post you quoted was correct. Those calling for long lockdown often live with families, in houses with gardens. It’s obviously going to be a lot easier for these people to sustain a long lockdown than single people living isolated in small flats.

Yeah, that was exactly the point I was trying to get across.

 

[philosopher]

Very telling divergence between Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon who appeared on Scottish screens immediately afterwards with 'Stay Home' emblazoned on displays behind her in case those north of the border were in any doubt of the local plan. That lack of unified UK messaging will become more evident over time.

Scotland does appear to be a couple of weeks behind England in terms of the progress of the epidemic. Therefore from that perspective both Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson could be correct, in that it is appropriate for England to relax the lockdown measures, but not yet in Scotland.

 

[30907]

Shielding is done for a good reason as those who are shielding know they are doing it so they can live a long and prosperous life

People who are shielding have already got severe health problems and a long and prosperous life is a big ask - maybe they just want to avoid ending up in an ICU (as most of us do, but the risk is rather higher) and accept that means being at home 24/7. (Declaration of interest: my wife is in this situation, and we will potentially be in severe restrictions for months not weeks.)

But if you look at https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/ it can be seen that there were over 28,300 flu-related deaths in one of the recent winters. Now even if you stretch the definition of winter as being 6 months of the year, that equates to over 150 deaths per day, yet nobody would advocate lockdown for flu !

The average is 17k, the highest was 28k, so is 11k higher in a season.
11k is the number of deaths above average in each of the last two weeks according to ONS. Or 1500 a day if you prefer.

 

[Starmill]

it is appropriate for England to relax the lockdown measures

Strictly speaking the measures aren't actually being relaxed now in England in any way different to Scotland though are they? What's different is a) messaging ("Stay Alert" in place of "Stay Home") and, b) forward guidance.

 

[Luke McDonnell]

Shielding is done for a good reason as those who are shielding know they are doing it so they can live a long and prosperous life

It'll be a lot tougher to convince the population that certain people can't go out simply because they either chose not to or in some cases can't afford a car.

Good point - also what if you are disqualified from driving for medical reasons their are plenty of conditions that could such as epilepsy, narcolepsy etc. so if you had any of those conditions you should be able tp travel by train/bus IMO one of the criteria for a disabled ENCTS pass is medical disqualification from driving (as listed by the DVLA) - so these people should be permitted to use public transport to visit friends, go to the beach, go to play games like golf and non essential shopping especially if they are not in walking/cycling distance of the said activity?

 

[muz379]

It’s common sense that it will be a more popular strategy amongst those who have access to outside space, and social contact with their families (although clearly that can be a double edged sword).

I think there is a different between being comfortable in lockdown because of those or other factors and actually actively wanting it to continue in perpetuity as well though . I mean thinking about myself for example I live in a small flat with a 3ft by 5ft balcony and I live alone so looking in from the outside you might assume that I want this over with as quickly as possible because I dont have a garden or family , but actually im quite a resilient person so have not had any difficulty dealing with this so im not concerned about the prospect of it continuing . I think there are plenty of variables at play with why people feel the way they do about lockdown and people projecting anecdotes about who they are exposed to as a national picture is unhelpful .

I mean in my anecdotal experience , most of the millennials in my wider social circle have still been working so have been able to retain at least some normality they want the lockdown over because socialising with people outside of their household is the only bit of normality they miss , its the middle aged people that have been sat at home all day doing zoom quizzes and pretending to work that want the lockdown to continue . But I know better than to frame my anecdotal experience as any sort of national picture

Support for lockdown is not something that I have seen statistics for on different demographics , not really sure its a priority right now .

 

[Starmill]

I'm too young to be a millenial, I've noticed a lot between those ages and gen-X, who happen to be living in larger family units who are very pro lockdown.

Wheras those I'm familiar with who are living with their parents in their childhood homes are far more unhappy than if they'd lived alone. Especially where they're trying to work full time, often from their bedrooms. So you have a hunch, I have counter-examples and Bletchleyite has gone to the trouble of consulting Facebook(!). So where does that leave us? I'd suggest: nowhere useful.

For the record, I'd add that the reality is that across the generations and social strata there is broad support for the current restrictions. This is evidenced by the general majority of compliance with them, the absence of an organised big-time campaign against them, some polling evidence that is pretty clear that a month ago there was a significant majority of support for the current restrictions up until now. It was found on Thursday that most people felt that if it were still a necessity, they could cope with the current restrictions for a further three months.

There are, however, a small number of people who exceedingly angry about them on this forum, and no doubt those feature more generally as well and not just on this platform.

 

[6862]

Where is the change from what has been the case for the last seven weeks with this - we were previously told to work from home where possible, but travelling to work if you can’t work from home was always allowed.

I recognise that these places have been allowed to open all along, but many of them closed anyway.

 

[holl1984]

My honest opinion in all of this is that they need to forget about social distancing for the younger children. Older juniors and adults in the school setting yes, younger ones no. Nurseries aren’t socially distancing with the kids at the moment and nothing much is Happening because of it. My middle son is 5 and this is the longest him and his best friend have ever been apart in 4 years - in fact she said tonight the first thing she’s going to do when she sees him is hug him. I thought I’d be dancing from the rooftops at the thought of him going back (although his 8 year old brother isn’t just yet) but I’m not. I feel sick. My partner has been working throughout all of this (non keyworker role...online retail and as they’re open it was never an option or a thought for him to stay off). The country has got to get going, I need to see my mum. I’m a socially challenged person who spends a lot of time on my own (all my time in fact since my best friend passed away last year) but that’s my choice, it’s that Choice that’s been taken away. We need to strike a happy medium between normality and the virus.

 

[Starmill]

Nurseries aren’t socially distancing with the kids at the moment and nothing much is Happening because of it.

They have next to no children in and reduced staff. Not all are even open. Of course "nothing much is happening".