Boris to resign? (Speculation) And who should replace him?

[birchesgreen]

Probably true but things were easier to hide back then, stuff usually had to wait for memoirs to come out (and by then few people cared) but now everything can be tweeted around the world in an instant.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Probably true but things were easier to hide back then, stuff usually had to wait for memoirs to come out (and by then few people cared) but now everything can be tweeted around the world in an instant.

This exactly

 

[SteveP29]

Hmm, interesting. Resigning because of health problems isn’t exactly unprecedented, for instance, Harold Wilson made way for James Callaghan in 1976 having only been in office for two years (though he had been office from 1964 to 1970). This was reportedly due to concerns that Wilson was showing symptoms of Dementia.

This would be the most likely scenario for Johnson to leave any time soon as the next General election is scheduled for May 2024 and the recent precedent is that the opposition only table a no confidence vote after their leader has been around for two years.

If these rumours do come to light then my bet is on Rishi Sunak replacing him. The only other alternatives I could think of would be Dominic Raab or Michael Gove, though I doubt that he’d try for a third time.

Is this illness chronic laziness?

 

[Typhoon]

Whether you agree with them politically or not, I'd say it's pretty clear that any of his predecessors were more competent than the Bozo, back to the 1970s at least.

The worst I can think of is the end of the Callaghan regime and Heath and the Three Day Week but even then there were individual pieces of legislation and competent ministers who you could pick out as successes, not here. All words, no action.

I am particularly irritated that he spent much of his time previously undermining Theresa May. Now she wasn't outstanding but at least she allowed a range of views in her cabinet, made decisions and put the work in. I don't agree with her on a lot of things but I appreciate that she meant well, and she stood up to be counted when the going got tough. Earlier on, Mr Johnson would disappear for weeks on end. Increasingly (and here I apologise to whoever wrote this previously for not crediting them) he wanted to be a future prime-minister and an ex-prime minister, but not actually be prime minister (except the photo-shoots in primary schools, construction sites, any staged event). His worst 'crime' in my book is he threw out or drove out much of the talent on the Conservative benches and replaced them with those whose sole talent is chanting in unison (and even that is breaking down). He appears to live in a fairy tale world where he things if he says something, it will happen.

So who is actually running the country?

It appears nobody. They're all engaged in a heated discussion as to if that is or is not an iceberg dead ahead.

There is; unfortunately the captain is usually to be found in his cabin with the door locked.

 

[edwin_m]

I am particularly irritated that he spent much of his time previously undermining Theresa May. Now she wasn't outstanding but at least she allowed a range of views in her cabinet, made decisions and put the work in. I don't agree with her on a lot of things but I appreciate that she meant well, and she stood up to be counted when the going got tough. Earlier on, Mr Johnson would disappear for weeks on end. Increasingly (and here I apologise to whoever wrote this previously for not crediting them) he wanted to be a future prime-minister and an ex-prime minister, but not actually be prime minister (except the photo-shoots in primary schools, construction sites, any staged event). His worst 'crime' in my book is he threw out or drove out much of the talent on the Conservative benches and replaced them with those whose sole talent is chanting in unison (and even that is breaking down). He appears to live in a fairy tale world where he things if he says something, it will happen.

Which perfectly sums him up as a mini-Trump - the same things could be said of the Donald with a few names substituted, except that (unfortunately) we get to hear a lot more of him. Comparing them I think Trump is more corrupt but has at least the germ of an ideology other than self-promotion and self-preservation, but I don't see that in the Bozo.

 

[Chester1]

The worst I can think of is the end of the Callaghan regime and Heath and the Three Day Week but even then there were individual pieces of legislation and competent ministers who you could pick out as successes, not here. All words, no action.

I am particularly irritated that he spent much of his time previously undermining Theresa May. Now she wasn't outstanding but at least she allowed a range of views in her cabinet, made decisions and put the work in. I don't agree with her on a lot of things but I appreciate that she meant well, and she stood up to be counted when the going got tough. Earlier on, Mr Johnson would disappear for weeks on end. Increasingly (and here I apologise to whoever wrote this previously for not crediting them) he wanted to be a future prime-minister and an ex-prime minister, but not actually be prime minister (except the photo-shoots in primary schools, construction sites, any staged event). His worst 'crime' in my book is he threw out or drove out much of the talent on the Conservative benches and replaced them with those whose sole talent is chanting in unison (and even that is breaking down). He appears to live in a fairy tale world where he things if he says something, it will happen.

Perhaps he took it too far but a purge of both the government and the Conservative parliamentary party was necessary. There were too many people absolutely hell bent on either stopping brexit or having a Norway style relationship. They are not unreasonable positions but a political party can only function with a reasonable degree of diversity of views. No dealers and second referendumers in one party was never going to work, especially with how deeply held those views were. The true test of whether he only wants sycophants will be the first reshuffle after the end of the transition. He needs to select based on ability (or as close as governments normally get to doing that). He is likely to be struggling to stay in his job by that point anyway.

Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid represent the two main wings of the party. There are a few long shots e.g. Penny Mordaunt. Gove and Patel will never finish in the last two. Raab wouldn't be likely to and I suspect he doesn't want it after a taste of the responsibility when Boris was ill (he looked terrified). If a contest is held next year it would probably quickly become Sunak v Javid. Sunak would win the parliamentary party but that only gets him one of the two places on the ballot for party members.

 

[brad465]

Looks like Cummings is on his way out too before Christmas, which would further expose Johnson's reliance on him (or at least somebody else with more competence, good or bad):

Dominic Cummings to leave Downing Street by Christmas

The PM's chief adviser dismisses resignation rumours but says he has plans to move on.

www.bbc.co.uk

Boris Johnson's senior adviser Dominic Cummings is expected to leave his position by the end of the year.

Mr Cummings told the BBC "rumours of me threatening to resign are invented", after speculation this week.

But he added that his "position hasn't changed since my January blog" when he said that he wanted to make himself "largely redundant" by the end of 2020.

And a senior Downing Street source said that Mr Cummings would be "out of government" by Christmas.

It follows a turbulent week at No 10 in which Lee Cain - the director of communications and an ally of Mr Cummings - also stood down amid reports of internal tensions at Downing Street.

The pair are long-time colleagues, having worked together on the Leave campaign during the EU referendum - and Mr Cain's departure prompted rumours that his ally would also step down.

Mr Cummings ran the pro-Brexit Vote Leave campaign in the EU referendum and was behind the group's "take back control" slogan.

After Boris Johnson became prime minister in July 2019, he hired Mr Cummings to be his senior adviser and six months later the pair's strategy of stressing "Get Brexit Done" as the main campaign message helped the party win a larger majority in the general election.

Mr Cummings has become more of a public figure in the past year and was forced into holding his own news conference at Downing Street in the summer, following controversy over him making a trip to the north of England when non-essential travel was banned at the height of the coronavirus lockdown.

Speaking to the BBC's political editor Laura Kuenssberg, Mr Cummings denied that he had threatened to resign after Mr Cain's departure - and instead pointed out that he had indicated his own plans nearly a year ago.

 

[DerekC]

Perhaps he took it too far but a purge of both the government and the Conservative parliamentary party was necessary. There were too many people absolutely hell bent on either stopping brexit or having a Norway style relationship. They are not unreasonable positions but a political party can only function with a reasonable degree of diversity of views. No dealers and second referendumers in one party was never going to work, especially with how deeply held those views were.

That seems to be based on an assumption that Brexit is the only thing that matters to the UK. The virus has shown up just how hollow that is.

 

[Chester1]

That seems to be based on an assumption that Brexit is the only thing that matters to the UK. The virus has shown up just how hollow that is.

Its why Boris was elected by the Tories and why he still has a job despite his handling on the pandemic. He may or may not broaden the range of ministers next year but if he did it prior to brexit I doubt he would last long because it would signal to back benches that we are heading to a softer brexit than they want. Many of the ministers from Cameron and May's governments would refuse to sign up to supporting the current negotiating position. I think its the only thing Tory MPs are waiting for before trying (and probably succeeding) to remove him.

 

[jon0844]

Looks like Cummings is on his way out too before Christmas, which would further expose Johnson's reliance on him (or at least somebody else with more competence, good or bad):

Dominic Cummings to leave Downing Street by Christmas

The PM's chief adviser dismisses resignation rumours but says he has plans to move on.

www.bbc.co.uk

With Brexit likely to have quite a few nasty surprises for people who thought we'd have the EU begging us to stay in and bending over backwards to give us everything we want, I am not surprised Dominic and others will be getting out quick. It's fair to say his job is done and he doesn't want to be around when the s*** hits the fan.

He and others will want to try and profit from the aftermath, albeit with COVID having thrown a spanner in the works somewhat.

Clearly the virus will be blamed on anything and everything that goes wrong. Lorry queues? Covid. Issues with customs? Covid...

 

[birchesgreen]

Is Cummings really leaving government or is he just going to be pulling the strings from a less public position?

 

[nlogax]

Is Cummings really leaving government or is he just going to be pulling the strings from a less public position?

He's leaving to spend more time with his anorak but I feel he'll still have a hotline to No.10 from Islington.

 

[brad465]

Is Cummings really leaving government or is he just going to be pulling the strings from a less public position?

My understanding is Cummings wasn't/isn't even the top the chain: that honour goes to Matthew Elliot of Tufton Street influencing Cummings, who then influenced Johnson.

 

[birchesgreen]

My understanding is Cummings wasn't/isn't even the top the chain: that honour goes to Matthew Elliot of Tufton Street influencing Cummings, who then influenced Johnson.

Human Centipede 4 is even grimmer than expected

 

[JonathanP]

It's mind-bendingly complicated:

 

[brad465]

Human Centipede 4 is even grimmer than expected

It's mind-bendingly complicated:

I've seen bigger diagrams that also connect American politicians into this, with in particular Steve Bannon being a notable bridge between the two countries. Since his arrest a number of UK Politicians have been rather quiet about him who'd otherwise interacted happily with him before.

 

[52290]

Its why Boris was elected by the Tories and why he still has a job despite his handling on the pandemic. He may or may not broaden the range of ministers next year but if he did it prior to brexit I doubt he would last long because it would signal to back benches that we are heading to a softer brexit than they want. Many of the ministers from Cameron and May's governments would refuse to sign up to supporting the current negotiating position. I think its the only thing Tory MPs are waiting for before trying (and probably succeeding) to remove him.

 

[brad465]

A number of Tory backbenchers have come out in support of Cummings stepping down and the idea this could give Johnson a "fresh start":

Cummings' exit offers Boris Johnson a 'fresh start', say Tory MPs

The upcoming departure of Boris Johnson's chief adviser is being welcomed by Conservative backbenchers.

www.bbc.co.uk

The departure of Dominic Cummings from Downing Street could give Boris Johnson a "fresh start", say Conservative MPs.

A number of Tory backbenchers have welcomed news the prime minister's chief advisor will step down this year.

It comes after the PM's director of communications, and close ally of Mr Cummings, Lee Cain, resigned.

Ex-minister Theresa Villiers said the pair had been "dismissive" of Tory MPs, and she hoped their replacements would be "more collegiate" with the party.

Mr Cummings confirmed to the BBC's political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, late on Thursday that he would leave No 10 before Christmas.

He said reports that he had threatened to quit in solidarity with Mr Cain had been "invented" - instead pointing to a blog post from January where he wrote he wanted to make himself "largely redundant" by the end of 2020.

This might prolong Johnson's premiership, unless he decides to resign on his own accord, but as I believe Cummings was appointed because Johnson can't think for himself on how to run the country, a replacement would have to be pretty competent to keep Johnson going in the eye's of his party.

 

[najaB]

This might prolong Johnson's premiership, unless he decides to resign on his own accord, but as I believe Cummings was appointed because Johnson can't think for himself on how to run the country, a replacement would have to be pretty competent to keep Johnson going in the eye's of his party.

Speaking generally, the parliamentary Conservative party despise Cummings more than they do Boris. So it could help keep him around for a bit longer.

 

[brad465]

Speaking generally, the parliamentary Conservative party despise Cummings more than they do Boris. So it could help keep him around for a bit longer.

In the sense that he won't be kicked out, yes he'll be more likely to stay. However should, as many are expecting, the post-transition period disruption and consequences materialise he may decide to resign to do a David Cameron and leave someone else to clean up the mess, but of course he'd never admit that if it happens.

 

[johntea]

Breaking news on the BBC, he’s off...with immediate effect!

Cummings that is, not Johnson

 

[Domh245]

Breaking news on the BBC, he’s off...with immediate effect!

Just for anyone else who was a little panicked reading this, Cummings has left with immediate effect, not Boris.

There's a joke in there somewhere about the PM resigning with immediate effect

 

[dgl]

So the rat has left the sinking ship, well only after driving it into the iceberg in the first place. Good riddance is all I can say (on a family friendly forum that is!)

 

[alex397]

Will his home planet allow him back I wonder?

 

[dgl]

Will his home planet allow him back I wonder?

Why do you think he's here

 

[RichT54]

With the puppet master departed, I wonder how long it will be before Boris just collapses in a heap?

 

[Cowley]

With the puppet master departed, I wonder how long it will be before Boris just collapses in a heap?

Or he tries to do a rapid reinvention of himself and gets the people in to help him do that knowing that the route he’s on is now looking desperately tainted.
I’d say that he’s got to end (at least publicly) his association with Cummings if he’s to stand any chance of holding on to power (if that’s what he actually wants to do now).

 

[43096]

Breaking news on the BBC, he’s off...with immediate effect!

Cummings that is, not Johnson

Presumably he wants to spend more time in Barnard Castle?

 

[fgwrich]

Or he tries to do a rapid reinvention of himself and gets the people in to help him do that knowing that the route he’s on is now looking desperately tainted.
I’d say that he’s got to end (at least publicly) his association with Cummings if he’s to stand any chance of holding on to power (if that’s what he actually wants to do now).

I would also place a bet on this being the case. It is noticeable how, less than a week after Biden is confirmed as the President Elect (Biden of course being on record for describing Boris / Cummins as a mini Trump / Bannon) he now seems to want to clean up his act. As well as the ongoing Brexit farce...

 

[Peter Mugridge]

Sadly we aren't truly free of him for another month; the BBC is now saying he ( Cummings ) will be working remotely until mid December.