• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

British airways and travel industry job loses

Status
Not open for further replies.

Gadget88

Member
Joined
23 Aug 2013
Messages
811
I read they could go bust. I must admit I am a bit worried about the travel industry we seen Thomas Cook go bust and Flybe. Edinburgh airport could axe 100 jobs too. This is very worrying. How secure will Eurostar be and Easyjet? I read Ryanair have many millions so will be fine.

Hospitality and event will be affected too so could we see hotel closures? We seen many retailers go bust in the 2008 financial crash my fear is we have a much reduced travel industry post Coronavirus. Could even see less Eurostar daily trains? Any thoughts?
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

farci

Member
Joined
21 Aug 2015
Messages
273
Location
Malaga, Spain
Our daughter works for Marriott in USA. Internally they report room occupancy has declined to 10% this week.

Such an established company will survive but a large part of their costs is staff wages, many of whom are on minimum wage. They want to retain trained productive employees.

In UK the govt has relaxed Sick Pay regs for organisations with <250 staff.
 

Busaholic

Veteran Member
Joined
7 Jun 2014
Messages
14,029
Having many millions is no guarantee of anything: any airline could go bust, though certain countries would never allow it to happen to their national flag carrier.

Yes, if passenger numbers decline by 50% plus over a period of a month or more, I'm sure Eurostar services will get cut, or even suspended altogether for 'public health reasons.'
 

Shaw S Hunter

Established Member
Joined
21 Apr 2016
Messages
2,912
Location
Sunny South Lancs
It won't just be travel and related companies in trouble. The whole leisure sector will soon be coming to an almost standstill. Already we have seen professional sport shut down along with music festivals and tours. It's only a matter of time before the likes of theatres, cinemas, nightclubs, etc are forced to close. Now this may only turn out to be a short-term effect but there will be a lot of people laid off from such businesses. The question is just how much support government is prepared to give those affected whether on a company or individual level. In Germany Lufthansa has already made an initial approach to the government for short-term cash support. I hope that governments everywhere have at least role-played this situation in some form and have plans ready to be deployed to mitigate the damage. In the meantime we will have to be ready to accept that our lifestyles will see us spending rather more time at or close to home than we are typically used to. Eventually all this will be just a memory but the "leisure landscape" will look somewhat different for somewhat longer.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
97,540
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
Eurostar services will not cease, at least not for any length of time. If Eurostar itself collapses, one or other Government will restart the services. It would be too much of a political loss not to.

It might be an "opportunity" to nationalise more UK TOCs though...
 

sharpley

Member
Joined
18 Aug 2018
Messages
240
Once Trump bans UK flights to the US, which I'm sure will happen soon following his Europe ban... then we'll see large scale 'temporary' lay off and parking up of aircraft. LHR to NYC, especially business and first class seats, is BA's cash cow
 

Nicholas Lewis

Established Member
Joined
9 Aug 2019
Messages
5,996
Location
Surrey
Eurostar services will not cease, at least not for any length of time. If Eurostar itself collapses, one or other Government will restart the services. It would be too much of a political loss not to.

It might be an "opportunity" to nationalise more UK TOCs though...
Given Belgium has put in place some draconian restrictions including shutting all bars and restaurants and EU is going to remote working be surprised if service isnt at least thinned
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
97,540
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
Given Belgium has put in place some draconian restrictions including shutting all bars and restaurants and EU is going to remote working be surprised if service isnt at least thinned

Yes, that's likely. What I meant is that a collapse of the Eurostar company will not mean a cessation of service in the manner of some Flybe routes.
 

Nicholas Lewis

Established Member
Joined
9 Aug 2019
Messages
5,996
Location
Surrey
Yes, that's likely. What I meant is that a collapse of the Eurostar company will not mean a cessation of service in the manner of some Flybe routes.
Ought to come much stronger as the airline industry is going to pared back on highly competitive routes like Brussels, Amsterdam and Paris
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
29,070
This is a great example of Darwinism in action - survival of the fittest.

Ultimately, it comes down to how strong each airline’s balance sheet is, and how prepared their bankers / debtors are to keep them afloat. For example the airlines will be doing deals with lease companies safe in the knowledge that the owners haven’t got anyone else to lease the aircraft to. Many airlines will be swiftly hedging forward fuel prices - Jet A1 is roughly half the cost now that it was a year ago.

Airlines supported by their Governments will generally be ok. BA will be fine. Easyjet will be fine. Ryanair will be fine (sadly).

Norwegian will be in trouble. So will some of the far east airlines (Cathay for example).
 

JonathanH

Veteran Member
Joined
29 May 2011
Messages
18,532
Given climate change perhaps the collapse of the travel and leisure industry and no re-establishment would be a 'blessing in disguise'.

A lot of businesses are going to go bust across the whole economy. The government can't bail them all out, neither can it secure jobs to everyone who currently has one. Maybe the government should make that clear now.

Also, one would imagine that this will destroy some people's wealth and create a deep deep depression.

This is perhaps exactly the wake up call the world needs.
 

scotrail158713

Established Member
Joined
30 Jan 2019
Messages
1,797
Location
Dundee
A lot of businesses are going to go bust across the whole economy. The government can't bail them all out, neither can it secure jobs to everyone who currently has one. Maybe the government should make that clear now.
That’s a good point that I don’t think a lot of people have really thought about yet
 

FQTV

Member
Joined
27 Apr 2012
Messages
1,067
There’s almost no chance of British Airways, and therefore Aer Lingus, Iberia, LEVEL, Vueling and, shortly, Air Europa going bust.

Air France KLM is in a parlous financial position, and Lufthansa (including SWISS, Austrian and Brussels Airlines) isn’t in much better shape.

On the balance of probabilities, and all else being equal, Nowegian and Alitalia should be next, followed by TAP Air Portugal and Jet2.com.

There’s an interesting scenario in the Middle East to play out, too, but ironically given the lack of consumer law in that part of the world, passengers may find themselves less affected than with the European failures to come.
 
Last edited:

cactustwirly

Established Member
Joined
10 Apr 2013
Messages
7,447
Location
UK
What about TUI and Virgin Atlantic, both are not in the best financial position either?
 

packermac

Member
Joined
16 Sep 2019
Messages
543
Location
Swanage
There’s almost no chance of British Airways, and therefore Aer Lingus, Iberia, LEVEL, Vueling and, shortly, Air Europa going bust.

Air France KLM is in a parlous financial position, and Lufthansa (including SWISS, Austrian and Brussels Airlines) isn’t in much better shape.

On the balance of probabilities, and all else being equal, Nowegian and Alitalia should be next, followed by TAP Air Portugal and Jet2.com.

There’s an interesting scenario in the Middle East to play out, too, but ironically given the lack of consumer law in that part of the world, passengers may find themselves less affected than with the European failures to come.
What makes you think that, as a employee of BA for 41 years (now retired) I believe it is a severe possibility. IAG share price has tanked, and will continue to do so.
BA/IB and others in Europe like KL and LH may get reborn in the future as old style National Flag Carriers. They will I supect be very few at the end of all this.
 

rebmcr

Established Member
Joined
15 Nov 2011
Messages
3,845
Location
St Neots
Given climate change perhaps the collapse of the travel and leisure industry and no re-establishment would be a 'blessing in disguise'.

A lot of businesses are going to go bust across the whole economy. The government can't bail them all out, neither can it secure jobs to everyone who currently has one. Maybe the government should make that clear now.

Also, one would imagine that this will destroy some people's wealth and create a deep deep depression.

This is perhaps exactly the wake up call the world needs.

Hear hear.
 

Mikey C

Established Member
Joined
11 Feb 2013
Messages
6,830
Hotels, tour operators, anyone involved in the travel business, whether for leisure or corporate travel faces a terrible year.

The aircraft leasing companies face turmoil too, as airlines return jets either voluntarily or through insolvency, they could end up with a lot of unwanted jets, and prices falling
 

FQTV

Member
Joined
27 Apr 2012
Messages
1,067
What makes you think that, as a employee of BA for 41 years (now retired) I believe it is a severe possibility. IAG share price has tanked, and will continue to do so.
BA/IB and others in Europe like KL and LH may get reborn in the future as old style National Flag Carriers. They will I supect be very few at the end of all this.

IAG's cash position is comparatively very strong, with relatively low borrowings, and operationally their costs are also comparatively low (arguably at the expense of service levels, but that's oblique to the discussion) for a network carrier.

easyJet's position is better than IAG's, and Ryanair's is better still, but Air France KLM and Lufthansa have big debt exposure and still some scary costs, which have not been addressed in the way that IAG has done so (brutally, in some cases).

There are also some nuances to the possible medium term effects for BA in particular, including low oil prices potentially making the continued operation of high fuel consumption but fully-paid airframes such as the remaining 747-400s quite cheap. Others with more fuel-efficient but debt-backed or leased aircraft could be at a disadvantage, ironically.

Never say never, and politics will always play a part in airline survival, but I can foresee a good many other carriers ceasing operations or being folded into others before any of the IAG brands.
 

Mikey C

Established Member
Joined
11 Feb 2013
Messages
6,830
IAG's cash position is comparatively very strong, with relatively low borrowings, and operationally their costs are also comparatively low (arguably at the expense of service levels, but that's oblique to the discussion) for a network carrier.

easyJet's position is better than IAG's, and Ryanair's is better still, but Air France KLM and Lufthansa have big debt exposure and still some scary costs, which have not been addressed in the way that IAG has done so (brutally, in some cases).

There are also some nuances to the possible medium term effects for BA in particular, including low oil prices potentially making the continued operation of high fuel consumption but fully-paid airframes such as the remaining 747-400s quite cheap. Others with more fuel-efficient but debt-backed or leased aircraft could be at a disadvantage, ironically.

Never say never, and politics will always play a part in airline survival, but I can foresee a good many other carriers ceasing operations or being folded into others before any of the IAG brands.

Yes, IAG have been run in a fairly ruthless way, they must be amongst the strongest airline groups financially

I recall that after 9/11 all the 747-200s got withdrawn early, you can see the same thing happening to the 747-400s this time
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
29,070
I'd expect Jet2 to be OK for now, they own a lot of their planes, but I suppose how long the current fiasco runs on for

Jet 2 are in reasonable shape financially; however their issue is that most of their eggs are in one basket (holidays to Europe for U.K. customers) whereas the other ‘U.K. based’ airlines (BA, EZY, Ryanair etc) have a much broader market and/or destination spread.
 

FQTV

Member
Joined
27 Apr 2012
Messages
1,067
Jet 2 are in reasonable shape financially; however their issue is that most of their eggs are in one basket (holidays to Europe for U.K. customers) whereas the other ‘U.K. based’ airlines (BA, EZY, Ryanair etc) have a much broader market and/or destination spread.

Unfortunately, they’re massively exposed to a number of contemporaneous situations. Industry discussion today is that Virgin Atlantic may go first, possibly as a vehicle to dump certain Delta liabilities.
 

Tetchytyke

Veteran Member
Joined
12 Sep 2013
Messages
13,305
Location
Isle of Man
Jet 2 are in reasonable shape financially; however their issue is that most of their eggs are in one basket (holidays to Europe for U.K. customers) whereas the other ‘U.K. based’ airlines (BA, EZY, Ryanair etc) have a much broader market and/or destination spread.

Yep, agreed. For now they might be ok with people who've pre-paid (insurers take the hit) but if the current lockdowns extend into the late summer they'll start to struggle a bit more. They're less leveraged than other similar operations, though, so have a bit more wriggle room.

Ryanair, EasyJet and BA have a bigger balance sheet and will be ok. But certainly Ryanair are primarily a leisure airline- city breaks and holidays- no matter what they claim, so will struggle too if things carry on for months.

Industry discussion today is that Virgin Atlantic may go first, possibly as a vehicle to dump certain Delta liabilities.

Oh I do hope so. There's nothing as cheering as a Branson* failure (*yes I know it's 49% Delta).
 

Ted633

Member
Joined
15 Mar 2018
Messages
270
Yes, IAG have been run in a fairly ruthless way, they must be amongst the strongest airline groups financially

I recall that after 9/11 all the 747-200s got withdrawn early, you can see the same thing happening to the 747-400s this time

A handful of 747-400's are having there retirement dates brought forward, however as stated above, the majority are owned and not leased. So coupled with low fuel prices, they may well keep going. Additionally, the jumbo is very good at carrying freight, especially compared to the likes of the 380.
 

WatcherZero

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2010
Messages
10,272
So far KLM, Qantas and BA have all announced they will be retiring 747 within a year because of Covid-19 while Virgin is retiring its A340. A couple of Asian airlines at the start of the year pre-Covid they were retiring 747 this year as well.
 

FQTV

Member
Joined
27 Apr 2012
Messages
1,067
So far KLM, Qantas and BA have all announced they will be retiring 747 within a year because of Covid-19 while Virgin is retiring its A340. A couple of Asian airlines at the start of the year pre-Covid they were retiring 747 this year as well.

A lot of this will be due to when the specific airframes in question are due their next D Check, which is effectively a strip-back to the skin.

Cost for a 747 is about £5m, and therefore the airlines tend to declare ‘end of life’ just before a D Check is due.

Conversely, quite a large proportion of Qantas A380s which are being taken out of service at the moment are actually being grounded to take the opportunity to bring forward planned maintenance, getting it done during a period of suppressed demand.
 

ian959

Member
Joined
9 May 2009
Messages
483
Location
Perth, Western Australia
The Qantas 747 retirements had already been planned for this year anyway, having been announced in June, 2019, so nothing to do with Covid-19 really. Most major airlines still flying 747-400s would have been planning to retire them within a couple of years, whether Covid-19 happened or not.

The Qantas A380s being grounded is to do with Covid-19 due to the massive suppressed demand and the fact that over capacity has been an issue with Qantas for a little while now. Much better to run the routes with A330s and 787s rather than A380s. The aircraft being being grounded has not really impacted the upgrade schedule which was to have all aircraft completed by the end of 2020. That was confirmed back in October 2019. The issue now is whether the upgrades will actually be completed as there is doubt that Qantas actually need the A380, especially if they do confirm the order for the A350-1000ULR (which right now is rather unlikely).
 

ScotsRail

Member
Joined
19 Aug 2019
Messages
77
Location
Aberfeldy
LoganAir have announced a reduction in flying as of next week - they are currently operating at around 25% of the bookings they would normally see so are cutting 55% of their scheduled flights.

Reduced frequency on the island flights.

Routes reduced outside Scotland include Aberdeen and Inverness to Birmingham and Manchester, as well as Edinburgh to East Midlands, Glasgow to Southampton and Dundee to London City whilst the Norway flights have all been cancelled for a couple of months and the Edinburgh/Wick route has been permanently mothballed, the staff at Wick will be offered other positions within LoganAir or redundancy.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top