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Caledonian Sleeper discussion

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JohnMcL7

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There’s been one occasion in the last year a 92 has failed in service and required rescue (approx. 0.1% of runs).

Not sure of stats re 73/9s but rescues aren’t a particularly common occurrence for them either.

Most delays are infrastructure issues (which will happen anyway) or stock issues - which (in theory!) should improve.

All the locos still have classic couplings as well as Dellners, so if needs be a Thunderbird can still attach to the front of the train (the rear is more of a challenge, but ideally any rescue is in the direction the train was travelling anyway).

A 90 had to rescue a 92 just this week alone (ETS issue) so you're overstating the reliability somewhat unless you're meaning per week rather than per year.

A rescue locomotive can couple onto the dead one but can it communicate and power the carriages? There was a problem a few weeks ago when the 73/9 couldn't pull the new carriages due to a communication fault and the discussion at the time suggested a rescue locomotive that's not one of the adapter 92's or 73/9's won't work. Also I thought there was an issue with the sleeper couplings being at a different height to the EMU Dellner couplings?
 
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Serco are making a significant loss on the franchise - they’re currently expecting losses of c.£49m over the full franchise - in effect they are also subsidising it to the tune of another £4m/year.

The sleeper - as noted previously - is extremely expensive to run. Even WITH the increased prices AND the govt subsidies it’s making a significant loss.

The “real” cost a guest would need to pay if it was to wash its face would be even higher than it is now.

Not sure what the scandal is?

To have materially lower/more affordable prices would require an even greater subsidy.

The 'scandal', in my opinion, is that even with the subsidy the current Caledonian Sleeper prices make it largely a high end tourist experience, or a pleasant commuting option for those with significant money. Thus we are spending tax payers money to improve the lot of the already wealthy.

Unless the service demonstrates either a net return on that public investment, or a wider societal benefit then I don't believe it can be justified.

I'm an irregular user of the service but realistically I think that my local school, park or pothole would be a better use of the money than reducing my fare.
 

JohnMcL7

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Hardly cheap. £220 for a one way journey, double that to get back again. From a financial point of view, it would make more sense for me to take leave on Friday and Monday, and use standard daytime trains booked in advance on those days, even adding the cost of a B&B on Friday and Sunday night it would be a lot cheaper than the sleeper, if I choose to use a campsite or camp wild on those days even more so. for me, the sleeper is a convenient way of getting to the Scottish highlands and to do linear backpacking trips, but it is only the privilege of wealth which allows me to have that choice.

I thought you were talking about a return rather than a single, to get evening flights down and stay overnight the last time it cost me around £160 all in and that was without having to take holiday nor book particularly far in advance.
 

TimboM

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A 90 had to rescue a 92 just this week alone (ETS issue) so you're overstating the reliability somewhat unless you're meaning per week rather than per year.

A rescue locomotive can couple onto the dead one but can it communicate and power the carriages? There was a problem a few weeks ago when the 73/9 couldn't pull the new carriages due to a communication fault and the discussion at the time suggested a rescue locomotive that's not one of the adapter 92's or 73/9's won't work. Also I thought there was an issue with the sleeper couplings being at a different height to the EMU Dellner couplings?
The 90 did not “rescue” the 92 - the 92’s ETH fault was discovered at depot (or just outside to be 100% accurate) when coupling up to the stock and the loco was switched with another - this would be just the same scenario with Mk5s and when all the Sleeper locos at Wembley are 92s (rather than hired-in 90s covering ones in Brush having mods).

I’m referring to a 92 sitting down on the WCML mid-service and needing another loco to rescue it. That has happened once in the last year. Switches of locos (and units) at depot for a whole host of reasons happens pretty regularly.

A rescue loco can’t “communicate” with the stock, but in a (rare) rescue scenario it’ll be a case of clearing the line / getting as far as is feasible before guests need to be turfed out.
 

al78

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Is the reason it is so expensive to run because it has very limited passenger capacity and requires greater staffing? If so, there is probably no way of reducing costs without downgrading the service to the point where no-one in their right mind would use it.
 

jagardner1984

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Well yes indeed, and clearly the cost of the new carriages is a multi-decade cost that is best split via Transport Scotland or other government agency.

I'm baffled as to what the main cause of the losses are, and it seems the new stock has perhaps missed a big opportunity to correct this. Are all routes loss making, or mainly the Highlander ? Does the lounge car make money or would it be better as accommodation ? Does seated make money, if so, could there be a higher seated to sleeper ratio ? The flat seat/couchette option common in other places seems a glaring omission. What are the proportions of the various classes of Double, ensuite, Twin rooms on the new stock, and which of these makes most financial sense ?

I should be clear, I'm a huge fan of the service and would love to use it more. I'm pushed onto other cheaper forms of travel for financial reasons. I totally expect to pay more for a premium service (a train with a bed). I don't expect to pay a huge premium over the cost of a journey AND a hotel room.
 

61653 HTAFC

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A few points on the recent discussions of both the now-abandoned pods, and the pricing:
Next Tuesday, I'm booked on the SNCF Intercities-nuits service from Paris-Austerlitz to Latour-Carol. I'm going to be in a reclining seat and paid an astonishing £19 for the privilege.
This service is one of only two sleeper trains still operating in France, and was saved from the axe due to being considered a social necessity. The next lowest fare was £32 for a berth in a 6-person couchette. This didn't seem to offer any extra privacy to justify the extra expense, so I stuck with the seat.

If the reclining seats were a safety concern for CS, it's interesting that SNCF can still operate them. However AIUI the French stock is old, so could well be grandfathered in. There are however plans to replace the stock, so if this goes ahead it'll be interesting to see how they handle the safety issue.

With those fares, I imagine the subsidy for the train is eye-watering, but clearly the French government feels it is justified. Then again despite EU regulations enforcing "liberalisation" of the railway industry, the French seem happy to drag their heels on that... perhaps state ownership allows for greater efficiency and control of costs?
 

gsnedders

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I'm baffled as to what the main cause of the losses are, and it seems the new stock has perhaps missed a big opportunity to correct this. Are all routes loss making, or mainly the Highlander ? Does the lounge car make money or would it be better as accommodation ? Does seated make money, if so, could there be a higher seated to sleeper ratio ? The flat seat/couchette option common in other places seems a glaring omission. What are the proportions of the various classes of Double, ensuite, Twin rooms on the new stock, and which of these makes most financial sense ?

I should be clear, I'm a huge fan of the service and would love to use it more. I'm pushed onto other cheaper forms of travel for financial reasons. I totally expect to pay more for a premium service (a train with a bed). I don't expect to pay a huge premium over the cost of a journey AND a hotel room.

Consider the revenue per coach: an LNER HST carries up to 76 passengers in standard class, compared with a CS Mk3 SLE having up to 26 berths (in 13 rooms). We should therefore, assuming all other costs are comparable, expect a shared berth ticket to cost around 3x the price of a standard class ticket, or the cost per room to be about 6x the price.

Assuming a single person, looking at various dates suggests you normally have to pay £180 for a solo room to occupy 1/13th of a coach. If a standard class ticket was priced comparably (in terms of revenue per coach), it would need to be £31.

Assuming a couple sharing a room, a shared room is normally £215 per two people to similarly occupy 1/13th of a coach. If a standard class ticket was priced comparably, it would need to be £18.

The problem is fundamentally that the cost of moving a railway coach from Scotland to London isn't dramatically effected by the number of people on-board.
 

garethep

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You also have to consider than an LNER day coach is likely to do more than one trip per day but the maintenance periodicities are likely to be similar in terms of "operational days" Add in the requirements for multiple locos /drivers per trip and it all adds up.
 

InOban

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Likely to do more than one trip a day? I think they all do two, and a few do three, or the equivalent in a mix of KX-Edi and KX-Leeds etc.
 

TimboM

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You also have to consider than an LNER day coach is likely to do more than one trip per day but the maintenance periodicities are likely to be similar in terms of "operational days" Add in the requirements for multiple locos /drivers per trip and it all adds up.
...and then there's all the additional staffing.

Sleeper stock spend several hours during the day being serviced/prepped/made-up and not earning revenue (unlike your LNER Mk3 which will require much less cleaning/prep and will have this done overnight then back out first thing earning coin).

There's lounge car staff, guard / train manager, a host per every 2 coaches - all this multiplied by the number of portions - I'd expect this is a higher staff per train ratio than a day train and certainly a much higher staff per passenger ratio.

There's the shunters at Edinburgh/Carstairs (and Euston).

Now it's a single franchise, all the "support" operations are not shared around as they were in Scotrail days (IT, sales, marketing, administrative etc.)

Every other night of the week you're putting up London and Scotland crews who are at the "wrong end".

The trains also do one single trip (one set of ticket revenue) per 24 hours - not 2, 3 or 4 diagrams a day as an HST set might do.

There's multiple locos (possibly as many as 12) and drivers used every night (via GB) to run the service.

Could go on... but the Sleeper is clearly far more costly than any other passenger train to run - and much more than the simple capacity comparisons.

In their accounts, the main reason Serco gave for the increased costs / losses were the costs of having to run the old stock longer - that's all the accounts really said, so presumably that's a whole host of costs including continued leasing costs, far higher maintenance costs, costs associated with them failing more regularly (delay repay/compensation etc); lost revenue opportunities from not being able to sell the new product, especially the premium en suite berths... etc.
 

TimboM

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The 'scandal', in my opinion, is that even with the subsidy the current Caledonian Sleeper prices make it largely a high end tourist experience, or a pleasant commuting option for those with significant money. Thus we are spending tax payers money to improve the lot of the already wealthy.

Unless the service demonstrates either a net return on that public investment, or a wider societal benefit then I don't believe it can be justified.
...or tax payers' money is being spent to bring in an overall "profit" for Scotland/the UK via the tourist and business revenues it generates, not to mention the employment it provides directly/indirectly across the country. Depends how you look at it.

Having worked alongside government departments in the past who had to continually explain where the money was going and how much they needed to the Treasury, I find it inconceivable that the holders of the sparse government coffers in these austere times would not have required sufficient facts/figures to justify the investment in the franchise; nor continue to scrutinise its performance and the return on investment.
 
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Just to throw my tuppence worth in yet again about outrageous price hikes under Serco with no improvement to rolling stock. A single fare from London Paddington to Penzance (8 hours) is £66 and looking at the videos of the GWR stock it is a whole lot better than the clapped out and frankly decrepit stock we are left with. New fares? - old stock? - wake up Serco or dream on.
 

jagardner1984

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A thought regarding drivers and crew being out of place and the costs of hotels etc.

Is there any reason the southbound crews couldn’t swap onto the northbound portion halfway (Preston ?) as presumably the hotel costs are significant ...?

I’d be really interested in seeing seating (sleeping) plans for the new stock.
 

TimboM

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Just to throw my tuppence worth in yet again about outrageous price hikes under Serco with no improvement to rolling stock. A single fare from London Paddington to Penzance (8 hours) is £66 and looking at the videos of the GWR stock it is a whole lot better than the clapped out and frankly decrepit stock we are left with. New fares? - old stock? - wake up Serco or dream on.
The GWR is far simpler (one train each direction, no splits/portions, only a Load 8 etc) and has the benefit of cross-subsidisation from the rest of the franchise. I'd expect if it was made standalone the prices would need to rocket too (or it wouldn't even exist).

As above, even with the price hikes and even with the old stock, "guests" are still paying considerably less than it actually costs to run per passenger. Wasn't the outrageous part how cheap they were previously?! With it separated out it's become clearer quite how much it costs to run.

...and how were those lower prices funded in the past? In no small part it'd have been cross-subsidised across the wider ScotRail franchise, but was that then fair that other ScotRail passengers and/or other government subsidies arguably meant for other services (if you could separate it out) were paying to subsidise Sleeper tickets even more heavily than they are now...?

Serco are making a £4m/year LOSS at the moment - should they make an even bigger loss to allow people to travel on this service at an even more subsidised rate (vs the real cost) than they do now? Or the government should subsidise even more than £16-17m/year? Or both?
 

gsnedders

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Could go on... but the Sleeper is clearly far more costly than any other passenger train to run - and much more than the simple capacity comparisons.

Definitely! I started writing another paragraph but decided I had better things to do with my day, but the capacity argument *alone* shows how astronomical the situation is, without even starting to consider the multitude of other factors that make it so insane.
 

Chrism20

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The GWR is far simpler (one train each direction, no splits/portions, only a Load 8 etc) and has the benefit of cross-subsidisation from the rest of the franchise. I'd expect if it was made standalone the prices would need to rocket too (or it wouldn't even exist).

As above, even with the price hikes and even with the old stock, "guests" are still paying considerably less than it actually costs to run per passenger. Wasn't the outrageous part how cheap they were previously?! With it separated out it's become clearer quite how much it costs to run.

...and how were those lower prices funded in the past? In no small part it'd have been cross-subsidised across the wider ScotRail franchise, but was that then fair that other ScotRail passengers and/or other government subsidies arguably meant for other services (if you could separate it out) were paying to subsidise Sleeper tickets even more heavily than they are now...?

Serco are making a £4m/year LOSS at the moment - should they make an even bigger loss to allow people to travel on this service at an even more subsidised rate (vs the real cost) than they do now? Or the government should subsidise even more than £16-17m/year? Or both?

I don't really disagree with anything you have written tbh, however I do feel that by separating it they have more than likely made it more expensive to run by a considerable margin.
 

Bald Rick

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...or tax payers' money is being spent to bring in an overall "profit" for Scotland/the UK via the tourist and business revenues it generates, not to mention the employment it provides directly/indirectly across the country. Depends how you look at it.

Having worked alongside government departments in the past who had to continually explain where the money was going and how much they needed to the Treasury, I find it inconceivable that the holders of the sparse government coffers in these austere times would not have required sufficient facts/figures to justify the investment in the franchise; nor continue to scrutinise its performance and the return on investment.

Notwithstanding the facts and figures, some decisions are just political. (See the Borders Railway as an example). I find it inconceivable that if the sleepers were stopped that the economy of those parts of Scotland they serve would take a noticeable hit. Yes they bring in tourists who spend money, but the proportion of total tourists to those areas is small. And a sizeable proportion of tourists by sleeper would simply find other ways to get there, most probably by day train.

What would happen if the sleepers stopped, of course, is that a number of politicians would be inconvenienced.

(I write as a former member of the Sleeper management team.)
 

jagardner1984

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Forgive my stupidity, but if CS as a business are losing £4m / year, and are set to lose money for the entirety of the franchise, how does that work in economic terms ? Surely that isn’t a viable business ? And what do Serco get out of it ? Or are they trying to make a name for themselves as a stand-alone rail operator ?
 

gsnedders

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Forgive my stupidity, but if CS as a business are losing £4m / year, and are set to lose money for the entirety of the franchise, how does that work in economic terms ? Surely that isn’t a viable business ? And what do Serco get out of it ? Or are they trying to make a name for themselves as a stand-alone rail operator ?
Serco presumably thought they would make money when they bid for the franchise (as otherwise they wouldn't have bid for it!). However, they seem to have got their predictions wrong, and are losing money. In practical terms, they'll remain the franchisee unless they negotiate an early termination of the franchise agreement (which the Scottish Government is unlikely to grant; the loss is well within the expected risk profile that the franchisee is expected to deal with).

Serco will be required to subsidise CS up to a given maximum per the terms of the franchise agreement, and this should be a figure that Serco can bear (I forget whether the figure here is part of the bid) across the group as a whole. (This is basically what was happening to VTEC: they were drawing heavily on the parent companies' finances to cover losses, and were expecting to reach the maximum and therefore become insolvent. Ultimately, this is what *did* happen to NXEC, which led to multiple takeover attempts of the entire National Express group.)
 
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paul1609

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Notwithstanding the facts and figures, some decisions are just political. (See the Borders Railway as an example). I find it inconceivable that if the sleepers were stopped that the economy of those parts of Scotland they serve would take a noticeable hit. Yes they bring in tourists who spend money, but the proportion of total tourists to those areas is small. And a sizeable proportion of tourists by sleeper would simply find other ways to get there, most probably by day train.

What would happen if the sleepers stopped, of course, is that a number of politicians would be inconvenienced.

(I write as a former member of the Sleeper management team.)

It maybe that as i live in Kent and work in Garelochead that I'm travelling in the wrong direction but I cant ever recall meeting a Politician on the sleeper. I can however give you the names of at least half a dozen Scottish Politicians who've been on the same flight as me to London City or even Stansted. Who are the politicians that supposedly rely on it?

I think the perceived importance to the Highlands of the benefits to the Tourist Trade are quite important. Its also very important to many of the small communities along the line that they have this direct link to London even if they themselves never use it. On my southbound trips from Garelochead I usually wait in the local pub. Ill guarntee that someone in the pub will offer to give me a lift up to the station and then will get out and walk on to the platform and wait to see the train. Its very much a niche market that attracts non rail users, I think that if the sleeper was lost, not much of the business would transfer to the day trains it would mostly be to flights and hire cars
 

Bald Rick

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It maybe that as i live in Kent and work in Garelochead that I'm travelling in the wrong direction but I cant ever recall meeting a Politician on the sleeper. I can however give you the names of at least half a dozen Scottish Politicians who've been on the same flight as me to London City or even Stansted. Who are the politicians that supposedly rely on it?

I think the perceived importance to the Highlands of the benefits to the Tourist Trade are quite important. Its also very important to many of the small communities along the line that they have this direct link to London even if they themselves never use it. On my southbound trips from Garelochead I usually wait in the local pub. Ill guarntee that someone in the pub will offer to give me a lift up to the station and then will get out and walk on to the platform and wait to see the train. Its very much a niche market that attracts non rail users, I think that if the sleeper was lost, not much of the business would transfer to the day trains it would mostly be to flights and hire cars

Fair points. A long time ago I was a regular sleeper user, and the crews used to tell me about politicians using them. Typically they come south Sunday night and back north on Thursday. I suspect as the price differential hasn’t shifted in favour of air, more are doing that. I also think the Aberdeen / Inverness sleepers had more politicos, Simply because air options for MPs on those corridors are, relatively, less competitive. MPs in the central belt have plenty of cheap air options, and MPs up the West Highland route - well there’s only about 2 of them!
 

47271

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A government decision was taken to separate the sleeper franchise from Scotrail. Serco bid for that franchise on the basis of £100m of public money spent on new stock and a significant annual subsidy.

Their business model, which we assume to be thoroughly examined, is based on premium pricing targeted at tourists on the new trains, but they still have the old trains and as a result (they say) they're losing money. We certainly know that they're losing money.

If their business model proves to be faulty (which I think is quite likely) after a period of operation of the new stock then they'll have a big problem.

If the new trains turn out to be disappointing or unreliable (they already are in the sense that they're not yet with us) then they'll have a big problem.

Either or both of the above could easily happen, but until then we can only speculate on the long term viability of the service.

My personal view is that they have the potential to apply their model successfully to some but not all of their routes.
 

TimboM

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An extract from the Serco Caledonian Sleepers Ltd annual accounts for the 3 month period ended 31 March 2018:

upload_2018-10-20_16-37-55.png

The most relevant part to recent posts (for those who cannot easily see the image) being:

...the terms of the Franchise Agreement provide a mechanism that requires Transport Scotland to bear 50% of contract losses from 1 April 2020. In addition, from 1 April 2022, we have the right to seek adjustment to the financial terms of the Franchise Agreement that would result either in a small positive profit margin for Serco from that date, or allow us to exit the contract.

I expect the contractual small print around this is a bit more detailed than this two-line summary, however as this is included within the audited statutory accounts, it (in theory) is accurate.
 

paul1609

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Fair points. A long time ago I was a regular sleeper user, and the crews used to tell me about politicians using them. Typically they come south Sunday night and back north on Thursday. I suspect as the price differential hasn’t shifted in favour of air, more are doing that. I also think the Aberdeen / Inverness sleepers had more politicos, Simply because air options for MPs on those corridors are, relatively, less competitive. MPs in the central belt have plenty of cheap air options, and MPs up the West Highland route - well there’s only about 2 of them!
Maybe, of course I travel North in the Aberdeen Lounge Car, and I've never met a politician in that either. I reckon it may well have been the case that politicians used the service 30 years ago but times have changed. Both Perth and Stirling are under an hour by car from Edinburgh Airport and four of the major stations on The Highland Mainline north of there are in the Fort William MPs constituency!
 

route101

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It maybe that as i live in Kent and work in Garelochead that I'm travelling in the wrong direction but I cant ever recall meeting a Politician on the sleeper. I can however give you the names of at least half a dozen Scottish Politicians who've been on the same flight as me to London City or even Stansted. Who are the politicians that supposedly rely on it?

I think the perceived importance to the Highlands of the benefits to the Tourist Trade are quite important. Its also very important to many of the small communities along the line that they have this direct link to London even if they themselves never use it. On my southbound trips from Garelochead I usually wait in the local pub. Ill guarntee that someone in the pub will offer to give me a lift up to the station and then will get out and walk on to the platform and wait to see the train. Its very much a niche market that attracts non rail users, I think that if the sleeper was lost, not much of the business would transfer to the day trains it would mostly be to flights and hire cars

Would there not be some Faslane traffic using the sleeper from Garelochhead ?
 

47271

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I've checked with those who use the service far more regularly than me and have been provided with the following politician spottings from the past five years or so, all on separate occasions in the lounge of Glasgow section of the Lowlander:

Wendy Alexander
Douglas Alexander
Mhairi Black, with an annoying group of hangers on.

There may have been others too obscure to recognise, but that's it, and no sightings of Kirsty Wark either.

I believe that the sadly deceased Charles Kennedy was a regular on the Fort William section of the Highlander.
 

47271

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An extract from the Serco Caledonian Sleepers Ltd annual accounts for the 3 month period ended 31 March 2018:

View attachment 54044

The most relevant part to recent posts (for those who cannot easily see the image) being:



I expect the contractual small print around this is a bit more detailed than this two-line summary, however as this is included within the audited statutory accounts, it (in theory) is accurate.
Thank you, very helpful. So if their business model is faulty, and given that 2020 will be the very earliest that the impact of the new trains is felt, then potentially we all have a problem!
 

Essexman

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I believe that the sadly deceased Charles Kennedy was a regular on the Fort William section of the Highlander.

He was and the southbound Highland Sleeper locomotive carried a wreath on the day of his funeral.
 
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