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can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

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yorksrob

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Yes this looks very encouraging to me in terms of individual safety, and multiplied by the current chance of any one person being infected suggests that becoming infected on a train is not something to be overly concerned about.

However, a lot of the measures currently in place are about reducing a small risk to an even smaller one to keep transmission down to an acceptable level, so I'd say it doesn't mean the government should choose to abandon social distancing on trains.

It does suggest that for something like IC travel on trains, perhaps one household bubble per double seat/table would be a proportionate way forward.

It does look very encouraging to me.
 
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AdamWW

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It does suggest that for something like IC travel on trains, perhaps one household bubble per double seat/table would be a proportionate way forward.

It does look very encouraging to me.

Indeed.

Possibly also including work travel - the additional risk for two people travelling together would be less than for two strangers, particularly if whatever they are travelling to do is going to include working in proximity.
 

yorksrob

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Indeed.

Possibly also including work travel - the additional risk for two people travelling together would be less than for two strangers, particularly if whatever they are travelling to do is going to include working in proximity.

Indeed, although shorter distance will, by the looks of it, be a substantial mitigation for a lot of work journeys.
 

squizzler

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The RSSB has started work in this area.
The RSSB could be seen for some time as a solution in search of a problem, and a perennial butt of Ian Walmsley's column in Modern Railways. Perhaps we are very fortunate that such an organisation exists to co-ordinate the necessary research during the current pandemic.
 

AdamWW

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The RSSB could be seen for some time as a solution in search of a problem, and a perennial butt of Ian Walmsley's column in Modern Railways. Perhaps we are very fortunate that such an organisation exists to co-ordinate the necessary research during the current pandemic.

A most interesting point.
 

squizzler

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Readers of Rail magazine will already have read it, but well known commentator Christian Wolmar penned a blistering attack on the rail industry in a recent column now available on his website.

Rail 909: J’Accuse – the culprits wrecking the rail industry

A letter to Boris Johnson, Prime Minister

Sir

Permit me to set out how a key industry is being wrecked by the cowardice and failings of a series its stakeholders. I address you, Mr Johnson, because it is under your name (I was, like Zola going to say ‘reign’ but it is not quite appropriate), that the railways are set to be more damaged than they were by Richard Beeching and the politicians who followed his recommendations.

In the main body of the letter, the culprits and charges against them are duly identified. Summing up at the end:

All of you have acquiesced to a tragedy and betrayed the railways. You should have emphasised throughout what we all know – that railways are incompatible with social distancing. If this pandemic goes on without a vaccine or a cure, and continues at a low level for months if not years, what will be left of the rail industry? Even I as a train lover would not be able to justify spending billions on a system that no one uses. What then? So when investment programmes cut back, services reduced and timetables pared down, remember what you did in this Affaire. Were you on the side of the railways or did you just bow your head, yessir, no sir, three bags full sir?

Your humble citizen, Christian Wolmar

What do you think? Is the charge of cowardice - a strong word to use - justified? Has the current crisis exposed a betrayal of the industry by those in charge keen to be seen as 'doing the right thing'?
 

deltic

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Like the politician he is, he waffles off topic for half the time and doesnt come up with any answers.

I agree that it makes no sense for airlines to be allowed to promote their services but until recently the railways have been telling people not to travel. But to compare the situation Peter Hendy is in with Micheal O'Leary is bizarre. The former is a public servant running an organisation dependent on public money, the latter is not and to some extent can play European governments off against each other.
 

Bikeman78

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Readers of Rail magazine will already have read it, but well known commentator Christian Wolmar penned a blistering attack on the rail industry in a recent column now available on his website.



In the main body of the letter, the culprits and charges against them are duly identified. Summing up at the end:



What do you think? Is the charge of cowardice - a strong word to use - justified? Has the current crisis exposed a betrayal of the industry by those in charge keen to be seen as 'doing the right thing'?
Good for him. Nice to see someone stand up for the industry. It cannot continue on the basis of 14 people per carriage. Especially as all other transport modes now seem to allow one person per pair of seats.
 

yorksrob

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Fundamentally, Wolmar is spot on.

Whilst "do not travel" was appropriate for full lockdown, we had a couple of months afterwards where the industry deliberately mis-represented the guidance, and this has done a fair amount of damage, although from what I'm seeing, non-commuting passengers fortunately seem to be coming back (except where Northern Rails's exceptionally atrocious temporary timetables are continuing to destroy rail's reputation). I'm not sure exactly where the balance of blame lies between Government/Railway Management/Unions, but they all bear some culpability.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Ryanair is in trouble with the Italian regulator today for allegedly not implementing social distancing rules (which Ryanair denies).
But looking at pictures from BA and EasyJet it's clear the airline rules do not impose the same separation as on our rail system.
EasyJet says it is achieving something like 85-90% capacity, and will "only fly profitably".
Nothing would fly if they imposed rail's "only one person in the cab" rule.

It's all gone very quiet on railway policy, although I would hope planning for 1m+ rather than 2m is in hand, at the least.
Wales still has its "hostile environment" for non-essential travel, and the media is still complaining of overcrowding on the Valley lines.
 

si404

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If the Government/rail industry was encouraging rail travel and having more lax rules on social distancing/mask wearing on it in order to promote rail travel, then Wolmar would be blogging about staff being put at excessive risk because of an obsession over the health of the economy being put over and above the health of the people.

Which would also be a spot on complaint - it's a can't win situation as whatever is done will be wrong. Even before we factor in that whatever a rail industry that isn't entirely state owned and run, or a Tory Government, does will automatically be wrong according to the ideologue Wolmar.
 

Butts

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Well it appears as though Aeroplanes are doing pretty well judging by my recent trip to Birmingham and back from Edinburgh.

It's pretty galling when you get a plane operating a near normal service with the exception of passengers and staff wearing masks, including a refreshments trolley service to find....

A Tram from the Airport to Haymarket with still no conductors ......

A Train from Haymarket to Falkirk Grahamston with the Guard permanently cocooned in the half carriage 1st Class Section he has cordoned off for his exclusive use.

Complete joke !!!
 

Butts

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Ryanair is in trouble with the Italian regulator today for allegedly not implementing social distancing rules (which Ryanair denies).
But looking at pictures from BA and EasyJet it's clear the airline rules do not impose the same separation as on our rail system.
EasyJet says it is achieving something like 85-90% capacity, and will "only fly profitably".
Nothing would fly if they imposed rail's "only one person in the cab" rule.

It's all gone very quiet on railway policy, although I would hope planning for 1m+ rather than 2m is in hand, at the least.
Wales still has its "hostile environment" for non-essential travel, and the media is still complaining of overcrowding on the Valley lines.

You don't have to look at pictures - I was on an Easyjet Flight from Birmingham to Edinburgh this Morning.

I had the window seat with two ladies next to me in the row of three. Was I bothered with the "1CM" distancing - not in the slightest.

The staff were not hiding in their "cab" either full Trolley Service.

What should be more concerning is that they are conveying me up to Edinburgh in 45mins for £20 odd !!
 

LNW-GW Joint

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What should be more concerning is that they are conveying me up to Edinburgh in 45mins for £20 odd !!

That's because EasyJet is in the real world, trying to recover its customer base; and the railway isn't, having bottomless state coffers to fall back on.
 

Butts

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That's because EasyJet is in the real world, trying to recover its customer base; and the railway isn't, having bottomless state coffers to fall back on.

Is that why Scotrail at least are paying Guards to hide in their cabins between Stations and not venture into the area where the passengers are let alone check tickets ?
 

theironroad

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Wolmar makes some valid points , points that could have been met in half the words, and without the grandiose statement that only 'Rail' magazine has stood up for the railways.
 

yorksrob

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Wolmar makes some valid points , points that could have been met in half the words, and without the grandiose statement that only 'Rail' magazine has stood up for the railways.

He made those valid points that few were making at the time. As a journalist, it is his job to do so in twice the text and to promote his journal while doing so.
 

DB

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Wolmar makes some valid points , points that could have been met in half the words, and without the grandiose statement that only 'Rail' magazine has stood up for the railways.

Haven't other commentators also made similar points?
 

geoffk

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Good for him. Nice to see someone stand up for the industry. It cannot continue on the basis of 14 people per carriage. Especially as all other transport modes now seem to allow one person per pair of seats.
A letter in the latest "Today's Railways UK" expressing the same view. Even the editors keep referring to non-essential travel being "allowed again", when it was never banned, just discouraged.
 

Butts

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Good for him. Nice to see someone stand up for the industry. It cannot continue on the basis of 14 people per carriage. Especially as all other transport modes now seem to allow one person per pair of seats.

Make that per Train if your lucky on some 6 Carriage Scotrail Services - and still the Guards are "Self Isolating" :E

Also make that one person per seat - have you been on an Aeroplane lately ?
 

Greybeard33

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I cannot give a direct answer to the question posed by this thread but there is an old axiom that says,“What gets measured gets managed”. This report relates specifically on transmission during rail travel, It will probably prompt further studies. Taken from data carried on High Speed Trains in China – there will no doubt be a need for closer to home studies particularly on Commuter Services.

https://www.railbusinessdaily.com/study-reveals-covid-19-transmission-rate-on-trains/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Todays Rail News Raj Sinha joins SWGR as Group Managing Director&utm_content=Todays Rail News Raj Sinha joins

https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/07/train-transmission.page



The RSSB has started work in this area.

Yes this looks very encouraging to me in terms of individual safety, and multiplied by the current chance of any one person being infected suggests that becoming infected on a train is not something to be overly concerned about.

However, a lot of the measures currently in place are about reducing a small risk to an even smaller one to keep transmission down to an acceptable level, so I'd say it doesn't mean the government should choose to abandon social distancing on trains.
Hmm. The RSSB's headline figure of a 1 in 11000 infection risk is from a preliminary, simplistic analysis that assumes only 44 passengers in a Class 800 carriage (i.e. 50% of normal seated capacity), with an exposure time of only 30 minutes and with only 0.05% of passengers (1 in 2000) infectious. But that means that if you happen to be in the same carriage as an infectious person, the risk rises to (2000/44)*(1/11000), i.e. 0.4%. And that is an average for the whole carriage - presumably higher if you are sitting close to the infectious person and/or the journey time is longer. Full details at:
The Chinese study is much more sophisticated and is based on statistical analysis correlating Chinese COVID-19 contact tracing data with train seat reservation data on high speed G trains between December 2019 and March 2020. The analysis covered over 2000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and over 70000 close contacts who travelled in the same carriage, within 3 seat rows either way (5 seats per row). The summary quoted in post #57 is rather selective, but the full study can be downloaded from:
The authors' overall conclusions are:
...social distancing is an important method of reducing the risk of disease transmission on public transportation. The allocation of passenger seats on a train should be carefully considered to reduce the risk of disease transmission. Given the attack rates estimated for passengers on the seats within the same row as the index patient, it follows that within 1 hour spent together, the safe social distance is more than 1 meter. After 2 hours of contact, a distance of less than 2.5 m can be insufficient to prevent transmission. To prevent COVID-19 spread during an outbreak, the recommended distance is at least 2 seats apart within the same row, with travel time limited to 3 hours. Our findings also highlight that passengers in confined spaces such as on train, airplane and bus might need to improve personal hand hygiene and use protective equipment, e.g. wearing a facemask. Increasing ventilation of fresh air, circulation and filtration would be also helpful to reduce the risk of transmission among passengers. Additionally, the screening of passengers' temperature before boarding could be carried out to minimize the risk of infection.
Again this does not support the relaxation of social distancing on trains, especially long distance trains, while the infection prevalence is at current levels.
 
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HSTEd

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In other words, the reality is that this strategy will require the current status quo to endure permanently.
 

bramling

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In other words, the reality is that this strategy will require the current status quo to endure permanently.

It’s gambling on an effective vaccine. The fear which has been injected into the population is increasingly making this hard to row back from.

Personally I’m very unhappy that our policy is taking such a gamble. If there isn’t a vaccine within a very short time, for me that’s beginning of 2021, some serious questions need asking about how we go forward.
 

Bikeman78

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Make that per Train if your lucky on some 6 Carriage Scotrail Services - and still the Guards are "Self Isolating" :E

Also make that one person per seat - have you been on an Aeroplane lately ?
14 people per carriage is the maximum allowed in Wales. The actual number on board is usually much lower but sometimes much higher.

No I haven't been on a plane this year. The double standards are bonkers.
 

Butts

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14 people per carriage is the maximum allowed in Wales. The actual number on board is usually much lower but sometimes much higher.

No I haven't been on a plane this year. The double standards are bonkers.

Especially if Aircraft landing/taking off in Cardiff are free of these restrictions ?
 

AdamWW

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Especially if Aircraft landing/taking off in Cardiff are free of these restrictions ?

Are there any aicraft doing that?

There weren't very many before all this started.

Cardiff has quite a good airport. But it's in Bristol.
 

Butts

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Are there any aicraft doing that?

There weren't very many before all this started.

Cardiff has quite a good airport. But it's in Bristol.

About half a dozen in and out each day by the look of it !!

I used to Fly between Cardiff and Edinburgh/Glasgow for a while last year on Flybe.

Embraer 170 hammered up and down in around an hour - way to go - forget M4, M50, M5, M6, M74 , M8 or a tortuous Train Journey.
 
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