For every apparent harbinger of doom for rail (and public transport operators generally) after C19 there are equally compelling counter arguments. All of the following are either inducements to use public transport, or discouragements to owning and using cars. Not owning a car is not the same as using public transport, but I consider non ownership will make people more receptive to use public transport. Most people here perhaps regard me as bullish about train travel growth, but judge for yourself:
- European sleeper travel is reactivating to serve those air travellers concerned about infection with the virus
- Carriageway and parking space is being reallocated from motorists to bike and foot traffic.
- Air quality awareness has been heightened, and cities are looking to keep combustion cars out residential streets. Consumers will soon have no choice but more expensive and less capable electric cars.
- Boris Johnson is on a personal mission to reduce obesity and the NHS is, I gather, now prescribing bike riding.
- Car ownership is being squeezed by twin pressures of fewer trips to make (more home working and fewer leisure venues open, also more home grocery deliveries knocks away one of the main legs under car ownership at a stroke) and less household income. Remember the government has required car finance houses to permit customers to defer their payments and as well as 'MOT' certificates. The number of people choosing to de-car on financial reasons is has therefore been backloaded, but the bills will start to come in soon enough.
- Rail travel is less crowded and more punctual than before. The emergency agreement with the TOC's mean that the service is more responsive to demand than since BR days, if even then.
- Previously emerging paradigms of buying transport services driven by technical innovations, such as on-demand car and bike share, and Mobility as a Service.
Indeed, one thing which is worth noting is that a fairly small shift from road to rail could have a significant impact on the numbers of miles traveled by rail.
A 6.25% shift in miles from road to rail would add 50% of the miles traveled in 2019 to rail.
Given that 25% of miles traveled are 50+ miles, a distance ideally suited for rail travel, but only make up up to 20 trips a year (which is a very few compared to the overall number taken). Therefore as people have less justification to own a car there's plenty of occasional travel which could be undertaken by rail.
That's before you look at other journeys which people could take.
Car use could fall significantly. If you are driving 10,000 miles a year with 6,500 miles being for commuting (14.5 miles each way to work) and that falls as someone then goes into work 40% of the time that cuts about 4,000 miles from the use of the car.
If that person is paying £3,000 for all their car costs (purchase, maintenance, parking, VED, insurance, etc.) then the cost would fall to £2,600 with their reduced miles however the cost per mile would rise from 30p/mile to 43p/mile.
Most rail travel is cheaper than that, given that 25% of travel is sub 5 miles then it's possible for many to be able to cycle most of those journeys (especially with the aid of an e-bike) or use local public transport.
Combined that's enough that a lot of people with 2+ cars would be able to reduce the numbers of cars that they own, even if it doesn't result in many more people not owning a car at all.