can public transport ever recover from COVID-19

[Bletchleyite]

But I do think we should be building in comfort gains from extra capacity where possible.

To some extent, yes - for instance, removing I think 8 seats per Class 350 would mean excellent legroom throughout and full window alignment (only a few centre sections have an extra row crammed in) - I would support doing that. That and getting rid of all 3+2 seating (and 2+2 1st, replacing with 2+1) nationally.

Do you have a suggestion for the 700s? It will be a while before the 12 car sets are full and standing again.

Either frequency reductions or taking a few coaches out and parking them up so they're all 8-car perhaps. Depends on what the cost of running 12-cars around half empty would be; it might not be worth doing so.

 

[Bikeman78]

If the cost per passenger is to stay the same (to avoid raising fares or subsidies) there will be fewer and/or shorter trains so the ratio of seated to standing passengers will remain the same.

I remember what the routes to Chingford, Enfield and Cheshunt were like until the start of this year. Watching them unload at Liverpool Street it was hard to believe that many people would fit in a pair of 315s. Do we really want to return to that level of crush loading with an hourly service on each route?

 

[trainophile]

Apologies if this has been mentioned, not getting on very well with the search function...

Was wondering whether the new Merseyrail Class 777s might turn out to be a mistake, given they are designed to increase capacity by allowing more room for standing passengers, and the seats are very close together unlike the old 507/508s.

 

[bramling]

Or flipping it slightly, there'll be less need for each generation of commuter trains to have fewer and fewer seats, with instead massive areas given over for standing capacity

For example, maybe the 700s can be refitted with better seats placed further from the wall as the wide aisle is no longer essential

And from a point of view of attracting people back to the railway, that may not be such a bad thing at all. Indeed the industry may well have to think about returning to the 1990s situation when there was an ethos of trying to provide decent rolling stock to attract passengers. Even Connex managed to specify a quite luxurious interior for their Electrostars.

 

[yorksrob]

And from a point of view of attracting people back to the railway, that may not be such a bad thing at all. Indeed the industry may well have to think about returning to the 1990s situation when there was an ethos of trying to provide decent rolling stock to attract passengers. Even Connex managed to specify a quite luxurious interior for their Electrostars.

Dare I hope - compartment carriages !

 

[bramling]

Dare I hope - compartment carriages !

I’d certainly go with that.

 

[Economist]

‘Unholy spat’ between Treasury and DfT over soaring cost of rail as passenger numbers fall

Empty trains running ‘to stave off strikes,’ claims rail insider

www.independent.co.uk

An “unholy spat” has broken out between the Treasury and the Department for Transport (DfT) over funding for Britain’s railway, according to a senior industry source.

The taxpayer is currently propping up train operators to the tune of £750m per month, as they run a near-normal rail service with few paying passengers.


Traveller numbers have collapsed during the coronavirus pandemic – initially because of government lockdown advice, and more recently because of fears of Covid-19 among travellers....

I happened to spot this particular article this evening. I believe, courtesy of another thread on here quoting an article from the Railway Gazette, that the DfT have a desire to cut costs. The question is, what do we think will happen next?

 

[HSTEd]

Well if you are going to have a fight with the unions, this is a good time.

 

[yorksrob]

An interesting article, although the phrase "empty trains" immediately stands out as nonsense.

I can see the argument that London-Manchester doesn't need three trains an hour into tier three.

I fear the reality might be more dangerous.

 

[thedbdiboy]

‘Unholy spat’ between Treasury and DfT over soaring cost of rail as passenger numbers fall

Empty trains running ‘to stave off strikes,’ claims rail insider

www.independent.co.uk

I happened to spot this particular article this evening. I believe, courtesy of another thread on here quoting an article from the Railway Gazette, that the DfT have a desire to cut costs. The question is, what do we think will happen next?

It is the Treasury that are challenging the DfT on costs. In BR days when there was a public finance squeeze BR would essentially be given the task of deciding how to reduce costs; ironically in the modern contractualised railway it is ministers that will have to grapple with that task now. We are (fortunately) well past the period of history where closing lines was considered a relatively easy option; but it seems inevitable that a considerable cutback of services will at some point end up being debated in order to match them with demand post-COVID. Aned we can expect a big debate about the farepayer/taxpayer balance. However, if we enter a world in which more travel is discretionary (which again seems inevitable after so much working from home) the Treasury will need to learn that simply putting up fares will not bring in more money.

 

[Class 170101]

Before the pandemic the balance was 75/25 with farepayers paying the larger number. Not that the farepayer got the most say by all accounts.

 

[Camden]

There's no chance that anywhere long distance needs more than 1tph to London right now. It seems very strange to keep VHF going at this time, given it would surely be more cost effective and more "profitable" to come to an arrangement with Avanti to pause it.

 

[Bald Rick]

There's no chance that anywhere long distance needs more than 1tph to London right now. It seems very strange to keep VHF going at this time, given it would surely be more cost effective and more "profitable" to come to an arrangement with Avanti to pause it.

A good example. Reducing Avanti services to, say, hourly on all routes would essentially save the cost of electricity / diesel, and any overtime / rest day working. Maybe single digit percentage of the cost base. Unless of course the trains are sent back to the lessors, and the spare staff are sent to the job centre.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Was wondering whether the new Merseyrail Class 777s might turn out to be a mistake, given they are designed to increase capacity by allowing more room for standing passengers, and the seats are very close together unlike the old 507/508s.

Or more likely they'll have enough capacity to run 4 car sets all the time (maybe with a couple of peak extras), and they'll be able to save the money on changing the signalling at Southport to allow 8-car sets?

A good example. Reducing Avanti services to, say, hourly on all routes would essentially save the cost of electricity / diesel, and any overtime / rest day working. Maybe single digit percentage of the cost base. Unless of course the trains are sent back to the lessors, and the spare staff are sent to the job centre.

I reckon hourly is a bit low, but you could put Brum and Manc to 2tph and bin the second Liverpool, with the 7-car 80x going elsewhere?

 

[Bald Rick]

Or more likely they'll have enough capacity to run 4 car sets all the time (maybe with a couple of peak extras), and they'll be able to save the money on changing the signalling at Southport to allow 8-car sets?



I reckon hourly is a bit low, but you could put Brum and Manc to 2tph and bin the second Liverpool, with the 7-car 80x going elsewhere?

The savings are needed now.

Going to a sensible 2tph means a complete recast of the timetable, and that will take months.

 

[big_rig]

A good example. Reducing Avanti services to, say, hourly on all routes would essentially save the cost of electricity / diesel, and any overtime / rest day working. Maybe single digit percentage of the cost base. Unless of course the trains are sent back to the lessors, and the spare staff are sent to the job centre.

So would that save less then than the other suggestion I read elsewhere online of cutting the numbers of people doing delay attribution? Sounds quite hard this cost cutting malarkey!

 

[Bletchleyite]

The savings are needed now.

Going to a sensible 2tph means a complete recast of the timetable, and that will take months.

If you don't mind the 2tph not being at even intervals, there's the 2 track emergency timetable which already exists and can be implemented at very short notice (cancel one Brum, one Manc and the Chester/Holyhead south of Crewe).

 

[radamfi]

Going to a sensible 2tph means a complete recast of the timetable, and that will take months.

They could just cancel one of the trains per hour, so the service would be an uneven 20/40 minute interval. Basically what they already do during disruption.

 

[Greybeard33]

Unless of course the trains are sent back to the lessors, and the spare staff are sent to the job centre.

Indeed, as has happened in the airline industry....

 

[radamfi]

Indeed, as has happened in the airline industry....

News article about the impact of Gatwick near shutdown on Crawley's job market:

'I know pilots who are driving for Sainsbury's now'

Crawley relies heavily on the success of Gatwick. Could the town be facing a long-lasting jobs crisis?

www.bbc.co.uk

"Crawley flourished while nearby Gatwick Airport grew, but the town now faces gloomy forecasts of widespread unemployment and deprivation as the aviation industry struggles through the coronavirus pandemic."

Train drivers are more important, though, so it is necessary for us to keep them on standby on full pay for the next 10 years in case demand picks up. Or maybe not?

 

[yorkie]

An interesting article, although the phrase "empty trains" immediately stands out as nonsense.

Your line is an exception; most trains I see are nearly empty.

 

[yorksrob]

Your line is an exception; most trains I see are nearly empty.

If everywhere else is empty, that's certainly an argument for strengthening the Hallam stopper from the usual manky 150 !

 

[dk1]

Well if you are going to have a fight with the unions, this is a good time.

Not a chance. No change here haha.

 

[Railman]

The "new world" post Covid will need a big re think on passenger demand versus service pattern and subsidy. Can we rely on the captive Commuter season ticket and business "first class" tickets?? We are back with the situation when BR was formed the first time around. The fragmented industry is structured so that large parts of it (N Rail in particular) are largely totally disconnected from the "fare box".

The government (treasury) is the only organisation that can restore reality, unfortunately that would probably end up with a blunt stick and ill informed reaction BUT it is the only way to restore some reality into a crazy situation.

I think if it was still BR they (Treasury/DfT) would have stopped the blank cheques months ago and told them to "manage it".

Railways are not and never have been suited to quick policy change and the present structure is certainly not, so if the government/taxpayers are not prepared to let the industry carry on totally removed from reality, with a continuous supply of unlimited money, then someone (don't know who) is going to have to get a grip pretty soon.

On a slightly different theme what about removing some first class seating and introducing a secure area on every train to carry parcels/mail, and hence get some revenue from other sources if the train is running anyway and is short of human beings? maybe the "Train Manager" could be renamed "Train Guard"or similar??

 

[yorksrob]

Concentrate on leisure and the regional railway . That's where the future lies.

 

[LowLevel]

Where I am on the Regional Railway leisure traffic even today with restrictions ever tightening seemed not too bad. Blue collar commuters are still there as ever. Long distance white collar commutes still utterly dead. Short to medium distance commutes however were making a fairly healthy return before we went back to "work from home if at all possible" again the other week which gives me hope that things will come back OK.

The idea that people will pay for a 100 mile round trip at Anytime prices to go to work every day needs a rethink though, I think.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The idea that people will pay for a 100 mile round trip at Anytime prices to go to work every day needs a rethink though, I think.

Literally nobody does that. Season tickets are usually priced at about the Off Peak Day Return rate per day on a 5 day week.

 

[yorkie]

Literally nobody does that. Season tickets are usually priced at about the Off Peak Day Return rate per day on a 5 day week.

Without getting into the minutiae of the rate of fares, or the names of products bought, the point made by @LowLevel still stands

If you don't mind the 2tph not being at even intervals, there's the 2 track emergency timetable which already exists and can be implemented at very short notice (cancel one Brum, one Manc and the Chester/Holyhead south of Crewe).

I don't understand how the 2 track emergency timetable is relevant to this point, but if you have an idea in mind, feel free to post it in Speculative Ideas.

Though I wouldn't go making recommendations to @Bald Rick as to what the timetable should look like if it was me...

 

[Bald Rick]

If you don't mind the 2tph not being at even intervals, there's the 2 track emergency timetable which already exists and can be implemented at very short notice (cancel one Brum, one Manc and the Chester/Holyhead south of Crewe).

Unfortunatley that timetable doesn’t exist. Of more precisely the resource plan behind it doesn’t exist. It existed on previous versions of the timetable, but because the timetable and resources planners have been flat out doing emergency timetables for nearly 8 months, they haven’t done any contingency resource plans.

Of course something is possible at short notice, but the cash savings will be minimal.

 

[HSTEd]

Assuming the peak extras are already gone, the obvious short term saving is to axe everything but the stoppers.