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Cardiff - Swansea Electrification Cancelled!

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Dai Corner

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It has only retained through services in a very roundabout sort of way - there are no through services at present and there are never any on weekdays - the usefulness of the services as through trains is thus rather limited.

It's just there to provide capacity for summer holiday traffic going to Tenby from large Welsh towns and cities. That's pretty much it - there is absolutely no need to use 80x stock to achieve that.

An increase in services from Carmarthen to London to more than one each way per day (except Sundays when there are three) would be much more useful - it would probably be viable to have a 2-hourly service to London. Of course, this was quite likely anyway, regardless of the electrification to Swansea (which was and is still a good idea - even if not the most affordable good idea - regardless of the nonsense Mr Grayling comes out with).

So a bright idea to use an HST in marginal time as a weekend 'crowdbuster' by someone in the Western Region decades ago has led to a promise by the Secretary of State for Transport to spend millions on infrastructure improvements of very limited benefit?
 
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Starmill

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I can't see any benefit to it personally. Maybe the SoS or the good people of Pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire can see it but then one must ask would it not make far more sense to serve Haverfordwest than Pembroke Dock? My impression from travelling in the area is that Carmarthen and Haverfordwest are the major railheads and with the possible exceptions of Tenby (which mostly only serves the town iteslf), and of course Irish traffic from Fishguard, the stations on the Pembroke Dock branch are of very little consequence for anything but local traffic.

I would suggest a through service between London Paddington and Haverfordwest would maybe even serve Pembroke residents better than one to Pembroke Dock on account of it being quicker. If you were going to serve Haverfordwest, might as well go the whole way to Milford Haven. It would be a good way to offer slightly faster journeys and a slightly better frequency for the hours that a through service might be possible. It would also offer more capacity for people travelling between West Wales and Cardiff.
 
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gareth950

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So a bright idea to use an HST in marginal time as a weekend 'crowdbuster' by someone in the Western Region decades ago has led to a promise by the Secretary of State for Transport to spend millions on infrastructure improvements of very limited benefit?

I suspect politics has a lot to do with it. Tory MP Stephen Crabb is now very vulnerable in Preseli Pembrokeshire, having his majority slashed from almost 5,000 in 2015 to just 314 in June. It's one of Labour's prime target seats and the 'Unseat' campaign being run by Labour is actively targeting him.
 
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Dai Corner

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I suspect politics has a lot to do with it. Tory MP Stephen Crabb is now very vulnerable in Preseli Pembrokeshire, having his majority slashed from almost 5,000 in 2015 to just 314 in June. It's one of Labour's prime target seats and the 'Unseat' campaign being run by Labour is actively targeting him.

Actually I think Crabb's constituency contains Haverfordwest, Fishguard and Milford Haven

Carmarthen, Tenby and Pembroke are in Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire which is also a marginal, though not quite as marginal as Preseli Pembrokeshire. The current MP is Simon Hart (Conservative).

London trains on all three branches would no doubt help the Conservatives!
 

Envoy

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It takes roughly twice as long (circa 3 hours) to get from Cardiff to Tenby by rail as it does by road. One of the reasons is that the roads take a more direct route. The other is the number of frequent stops - especially when for example, a long distance train from Manchester to Tenby has to double up as a commuter stopper when west of Cardiff.

The way I see it is that once west of Carmarthen, the lines into Pembrokeshire divide into 3 branches = Fishguard, Haverfordwest & Milford Haven, Tenby & Pembroke Dock. Ferries to Ireland go from Pembroke Dock (Irish Ferries) and from Fishguard (Stena). Obviously trains should be timed to drop and pick up people for these ferries. Most of these branches have one train every other hour - which is surely inadequate as an hourly service would be more desirable. So, what would surely be best is to have a very fast limited stop service running west from Cardiff to Carmarthen - possibly using the Swansea District Line with a new station with free Park & Ride near the M4 north of Swansea. Such trains should also call at Llanelli and then non stop to/from Carmarthen. Perhaps this could be a 5 coach Class 800 - which was split at Cardiff with the other 5 coaches forming the ‘normal’ service into Swansea calling at Bridgend, PT & Neath. Swansea could be served by a stopping service to Carmarthen which would be timed to arrive in Carmarthen just before the Class 800. This train could then continue into Pembrokeshire - possibly splitting at Whitland?

I note that on the present schedules, the trains from Manchester run between Newport & Swansea just ahead of the GWR trains from London. This leads to people - who are not travelling west of Swansea, jamming themselves onto 2 or 3 coach 175’s and even standing when had they waited a few minutes, they could have got on a GWR train with more seats. It surely would be preferable to have the GWR trains running about 15 minutes ahead of the those from Manchester and with the Manchester to west Wales trains waiting at Swansea for the London train to arrive and offload passengers for the west?
 

gareth950

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Has anyone at the DfT or NR actually told Grayling his plans for class 800s to Pembroke Dock are fantasy? Or do they not want to break it to him that his fantasy plans involve actually spending money on rail infrastructure in Wales? If he can find the funding to re-bore Narbeth tunnel for the sake of trying to save one marginal Tory constituency, he can find the funding to electrify Cardiff - Swansea and fund the entire S Wales Metro project out of the Westminster pot.

Hyprocrisy of the highest level.
 
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Class 170101

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The fantasy plans, like Derby to Bristol as dreamed up and announced by George Osborne and David Cameron some years back and no evidence of work having taken place.
 

jimm

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The fantasy plans, like Derby to Bristol as dreamed up and announced by George Osborne and David Cameron some years back and no evidence of work having taken place.

Why would any work connected with electrification have taken place on that route?

The July 2012 announcement meant Network Rail had North West, Great Western, TransPennine, West Midland extensions, Gospel Oak-Barking, Midland Main Line and the Electric Spine to be getting on with. Wiring of the XC Derby-Bristol axis has never been in any official programme/announcement.
 

Class 170101

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Why would any work connected with electrification have taken place on that route?

The July 2012 announcement meant Network Rail had North West, Great Western, TransPennine, West Midland extensions, Gospel Oak-Barking, Midland Main Line and the Electric Spine to be getting on with. Wiring of the XC Derby-Bristol axis has never been in any official programme/announcement.

Doesn't mean it might have been happening behind the scenes. Why would Osborne and Cameron make an announcement otherwise?
 

jimm

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Doesn't mean it might have been happening behind the scenes. Why would Osborne and Cameron make an announcement otherwise?

No one ever 'announced' anything - ahead of the 2015 election Osborne said he had asked Network Rail to look into the idea of wiring Derby-Bristol.

There is big difference between a politician saying something and anything actually happening. Especially at a time when the existing electrification schemes were already in trouble, so I doubt Network Rail could spare anyone to indulge Mr Osborne's electorally-motivated musings anyway.
 

Gareth Marston

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It takes roughly twice as long (circa 3 hours) to get from Cardiff to Tenby by rail as it does by road. One of the reasons is that the roads take a more direct route. The other is the number of frequent stops - especially when for example, a long distance train from Manchester to Tenby has to double up as a commuter stopper when west of Cardiff.

The way I see it is that once west of Carmarthen, the lines into Pembrokeshire divide into 3 branches = Fishguard, Haverfordwest & Milford Haven, Tenby & Pembroke Dock. Ferries to Ireland go from Pembroke Dock (Irish Ferries) and from Fishguard (Stena). Obviously trains should be timed to drop and pick up people for these ferries. Most of these branches have one train every other hour - which is surely inadequate as an hourly service would be more desirable. So, what would surely be best is to have a very fast limited stop service running west from Cardiff to Carmarthen - possibly using the Swansea District Line with a new station with free Park & Ride near the M4 north of Swansea. Such trains should also call at Llanelli and then non stop to/from Carmarthen. Perhaps this could be a 5 coach Class 800 - which was split at Cardiff with the other 5 coaches forming the ‘normal’ service into Swansea calling at Bridgend, PT & Neath. Swansea could be served by a stopping service to Carmarthen which would be timed to arrive in Carmarthen just before the Class 800. This train could then continue into Pembrokeshire - possibly splitting at Whitland?

I note that on the present schedules, the trains from Manchester run between Newport & Swansea just ahead of the GWR trains from London. This leads to people - who are not travelling west of Swansea, jamming themselves onto 2 or 3 coach 175’s and even standing when had they waited a few minutes, they could have got on a GWR train with more seats. It surely would be preferable to have the GWR trains running about 15 minutes ahead of the those from Manchester and with the Manchester to west Wales trains waiting at Swansea for the London train to arrive and offload passengers for the west?

Manchester to South Wales/West Wales - the paths are set in stone by having to cross Crewe on the flat in between West Coast Mainline services, the west wales to Cardiff and Manchester to Cardiff services are joined up due to ATW's shoestring qty of rolling stock and having to cycle Class 175's back to the North West of England where their depot is.
 

Gareth Marston

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Has anyone at the DfT or NR actually told Grayling his plans for class 800s to Pembroke Dock are fantasy? Or do they not want to break it to him that his fantasy plans involve actually spending money on rail infrastructure in Wales? If he can find the funding to re-bore Narbeth tunnel for the sake of trying to save one marginal Tory constituency, he can find the funding to electrify Cardiff - Swansea and fund the entire S Wales Metro project out of the Westminster pot.

Hyprocrisy of the highest level.

technically it can be done however whether the expense and diversion of resources is actually worth it versus other areas being neglected is highly debatable.

Were now in the situation where the main political party's are prioritising tail wagging the dog projects in Wales. The Torys are concentrating on a single track branch line in Pembrokeshire , Plaid want to reopen a rural meandering line of 56 miles between Aberystwyth and Carmarthen in deepest rural West Wales and Labour's "vision" for the rail network beyond the on paper promise of a South Wales Metro is an hourly service between Cardiff and Holyhead that totally ignores the real world needs of the majority of travellers and the population along the Marches/NE Wales and North Wales Coast.
 

ChrisHogan

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So a bright idea to use an HST in marginal time as a weekend 'crowdbuster' by someone in the Western Region decades ago has led to a promise by the Secretary of State for Transport to spend millions on infrastructure improvements of very limited benefit?

Not really. The extension of an HST to West Wales was a direct replacement for the replacement of a separate loco-hauled West Wales train (0938SO) that ran for many years. Over the years various extensions beyond Carmarthen have been tried by W.R. and its successors; the 1720 Paddn went through to Milford Haven for many years but only carried a handful of passengers beyond Carmarthen. Similarly the morning Carmarthen (0655SX) was back projected to start from Haverfordwest at 0604 at about the same time. I don't think it can be legitimately argued that no attempt has been made to serve West Wales by through trains from London.
 

Chester1

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Is it possible that altering the tunnel might have a low cost? Alternatively, that he is considering regular GWR services in the next franchise? Holyhead has a handful of London services so it wouldn't be unreasonable to extend some GWR services to the South Wales ports and act as holiday trains on summer weekends. 2x5 coaches splitting and running limited stops between Carmarthen and Pembroke / Fishguard would provide better links and capacity from Pembrokeshire to Swansea and Cardiff too.

If its about a weekend service between London and Pembroke Dock then hooking up two sets of the short formed Devon and Cornwall HSTs late on a Friday and returning them late Sunday would be a much cheaper way of providing a service. 2 x 5 coach 800s could be sent to Devon and Cornwall on summer weekends to componsate. I know that is a lot of messing about but it would be politically useful for the government.
 

IanXC

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Manchester to South Wales/West Wales - the paths are set in stone by having to cross Crewe on the flat in between West Coast Mainline services, the west wales to Cardiff and Manchester to Cardiff services are joined up due to ATW's shoestring qty of rolling stock and having to cycle Class 175's back to the North West of England where their depot is.

I don't really know this timetable well, but even if we take the ATW as fixed (or at least too hard to amend), then IEP journey time savings to Cardiff would appear (should they depart London at the same time as currently) to result in Swansea services appearing conveniently ahead of the ex Manchesters anyway.
 

Gareth Marston

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Not really. The extension of an HST to West Wales was a direct replacement for the replacement of a separate loco-hauled West Wales train (0938SO) that ran for many years. Over the years various extensions beyond Carmarthen have been tried by W.R. and its successors; the 1720 Paddn went through to Milford Haven for many years but only carried a handful of passengers beyond Carmarthen. Similarly the morning Carmarthen (0655SX) was back projected to start from Haverfordwest at 0604 at about the same time. I don't think it can be legitimately argued that no attempt has been made to serve West Wales by through trains from London.

The Summer Saturday Tenby trains were being run by BR in 1996 so they got set in stone into the franchise agreements at privatisation via the Passenger Service Requirement (PSR) - the 1993 Bill only got the backing of a number of Tory rebels on the condition of a few things like through ticketing between TOC's and an instrument being place that the new operators didn't just come in and do a Beeching. The PSR's were not thought through as terms of reference for developing and running services but to stop services being cut. Its a surprise that it was still being run as InterCity had cut quite a few routes in the early 90's Shrewsbury/Aberystwyth/Blackpool/Cleethorpes/Grimsby and tried to cut Chester/Holyhead. Services out of Paddington seem to have been immune.
 

Starmill

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It has certainly always seemed to me that the timetable is slightly... broken at Swansea.

Trains from London Paddington Arrive at (trains to Carmarthen or West Wales depart at)

0900 (0906) +6
0948 (1002) +14
1045 (1105) +20

These ones are great connections.

But then:

1143 (1138) -5
1242 (1240) -3
1343 (1337) -6
1446 (1438) -8
1542 (1537) -5
1643 (1640) -3
1743 (1735) -8
1845 (1842) -3
1923 (1934) +11
1945 (2011) +26
2021 (though train to Carmarthen)
2046 (2048) +2
2118 NA
2150 NA
2220 (2227) +7
2324 (0015) +49
0039 (0045) +6
0217 (0545)

That final one is a bit dubious because it's basically an overnight at Swansea. So there are a handful of great connections and one very long one, one made only by 2 minutes and most missed tantalisingly by between 3 and 8 minutes. Two key services the 1815 and 1845 from London Paddington don't have a connection for West Wales at all - after the direct 1715 there is no journey oppourtunity at all until the 1915. The +2 off the 1745 departure from London Paddington is not a valid connection.

As other posters have alluded to this leads to a very poor use of capacity between Cardiff and Swansea, and it also puts London to West Wales passengers on services which terminate at Cardiff Central (when they run, which frustratingly they still don't at the weekend) and connections at Newport are often suggested, thus extending these journeys by 30 minutes.
 
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ChrisHogan

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The Summer Saturday Tenby trains were being run by BR in 1996 so they got set in stone into the franchise agreements at privatisation via the Passenger Service Requirement (PSR) - the 1993 Bill only got the backing of a number of Tory rebels on the condition of a few things like through ticketing between TOC's and an instrument being place that the new operators didn't just come in and do a Beeching. The PSR's were not thought through as terms of reference for developing and running services but to stop services being cut. Its a surprise that it was still being run as InterCity had cut quite a few routes in the early 90's Shrewsbury/Aberystwyth/Blackpool/Cleethorpes/Grimsby and tried to cut Chester/Holyhead. Services out of Paddington seem to have been immune.

It wasn't a lack of "thinking through" with the PSRs in 1996-97; OPRAF didn't have any expertise in this area and simply had to accept the service currently provided by the relevant TOU as the basis for the PSRs.
 

Gareth Marston

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It was a well intentioned amendment to stop the private operators cutting services forced on Whitehall by the would be Tory rebels. oPRAF mainly just cut and paste the BR 96 timetables. Typically the Pembrokeshire Tory MP's and Whitehall have no clue that it exists as the best way using resources that existed in the late 80's and 90's to strengthen summer Saturday trains from South Wales to Tenby.
 

Envoy

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Yes, the timetable westbound across south Wales is not good. People are told (by the computer system) to get off trains at Newport and switch to those coming off The Marches and heading for west Wales. Such trains are often already rammed with people coming down from Manchester etc. and are usually 2 or 3 coaches. London trains that terminate in Cardiff ‘dump’ people who are heading for places further west and they board a pretty full 2 or 3 coach 175 that has come from Manchester. The GWR through service from London to Swansea is usually a few minutes behind with more capacity and this arrives in Swansea just as the 175 is pulling out for west Wales.
 

PHILIPE

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The NRE Journey Planner system always quotes the first possible location to make the change. The system is "robotic" and cannot understand what real people can see.
 

Envoy

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Can’t humans change the ‘robotic' NRE Journey Planner to make things for the general good of the public as well as the TOC’s?
 

Dai Corner

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Can’t humans change the ‘robotic' NRE Journey Planner to make things for the general good of the public as well as the TOC’s?
Not just to avoid overcrowding as in this case, but to have same- or cross-platform interchanges and avoid waits at stations without toilets and other facilities where possible.
 

Mordac

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The NRE Journey Planner system always quotes the first possible location to make the change. The system is "robotic" and cannot understand what real people can see.
That's not necessarily true, although I'm sure it is in the situation you describe. For instance, when searching for Northampton to Edinburgh journeys, the first place to change if going via Brum is at Coventry, but NRE wants you to change at International for some reason.
 

BantamMenace

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That's not necessarily true, although I'm sure it is in the situation you describe. For instance, when searching for Northampton to Edinburgh journeys, the first place to change if going via Brum is at Coventry, but NRE wants you to change at International for some reason.

Likewise Leeds to Leamington always wants me to change at Birmingham when Doncaster, Sheffield and Derby are all easier and earlier changes.
 

themiller

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Just found this online: https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/electrification-cardiff-swansea-rail-line-14851065
Article attributed to Rhodri Clark and dated 11:14, 1 JUL 2018

The Cardiff to Swansea railway could be electrified for just a third of the previously accepted figure, according to a group of rail professionals.

The Campaign to Electrify Britain’s Railways (CEBR) was founded in May by rail experts who believe the UK is making a costly error by halting electrification of several lines.

The decision not to electrify to Swansea was based on the scheme costing £433m, in 2012-13 prices, and delivering just 30p in benefits for every £1 of cost.

However, the CEBR told WalesOnline that the cost of electrifying from Cardiff to Swansea has fallen, thanks to innovations and different ways of delivering the work, and could now be about £150m.

Such a big reduction would transform the ratio of benefits to costs – and the group also says there would be additional benefits from converting local passenger services and freight trains to electric power.

Noel Dolphin, one of the CEBR’s founders, said he had talked to companies – including European electrical giants Alstom and Siemens – who were interested in electrifying Network Rail lines at their own risk. “That’s one of the options the Department for Transport refused to consider,” he said.

“When you look at most of Europe the costs of electrification are much lower, well under £1m per track kilometre. The industry in the UK should aspire to less than £1m per track km. This is almost what is being achieved in Scotland, so it is possible even in the UK.”

Mr Dolphin, who is based in Cardiff , said the Great Western electrification from London to Cardiff suffered from “huge overheads”, whereas Scotland had a smaller electrification team. “Scottish prices are achievable in Wales if you run Swansea to Cardiff as a stand-alone project.

“If you were to do it the Scottish way, it would cost about £165m to £170m.”

However, the Scottish cost per mile includes provision of expensive equipment to feed electricity into the railway cables from the National Grid – a cost which would not arise for Swansea.

“The power engineer I spoke to said Network Rail spent £60m on power supply equipment in Cardiff, which is enough to power the Valleys [rail electrification] and to Swansea. That’s a lot of money to spend. A huge proportion of that is going to be for Swansea.”

New solutions for bridges would help to cut costs. “On Great Western, a few expensive things like low bridges have driven a huge amount of the cost, and cost increases,” said Mr Dolphin. Many bridges between London and Cardiff had been rebuilt to provide overhead clearances for electrical equipment, causing disruption to passengers, road users and communities. Compensation for disruption added to Network Rail’s costs.
 

Class 170101

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But surely if no feeder station is included that means no power west of Cardiff to Swansea should an isolation be required say at Bridgend - potentially impacting on the maintenance time for the OLE going forward.
 
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