Challenges of the industry

[Mike_Sa]

Hi,

I am currently conducting a PhD study to understand what are the main challenges facing the railway industry, in particular the companies that are performing well against the industry standards, such as Chiltern Railways.

Would be interested to hear your views?

Thanks!

 

[Dr Hoo]

Welcome to the forum. Best wishes for your research.

A few suggested issues, building on your Chiltern example/case study:

In many areas easy scope for increasing capacity has been exhausted, e.g. no room for yet more platforms at Marylebone, track redoubling already done, line speeds increased, space at Birmingham Moor Street and Oxford for Chiltern services already taken up (allowing for other developments for other operators already planned).

Procurement of further rolling stock very difficult in view of looming diesel ‘ban’, long backlog of already-late deliveries of other fleets, lack of compatibility of newer designs with old.

Growing difficulty in finding staff keen to work shifts, nights and weekends whether as train crew, fitters or on stations despite growing societal demand for better services at ‘awkward’ times.

Growing performance problems on a ‘full’ railway, which new technologies such as ‘traffic management’ seem to be finding hard to crack.

A growing sense that the supply chain, project management, trade skills, etc. are under pressure (possibly associated with reduced access to skills from abroad) making any ‘schemes’ harder and slower to deliver.

To my mind these ‘hard’ problems are even more challenging than various organisational, political, financial, managerial and institutional issues that others will no doubt suggest.

 

[Dieseldriver]

Growing difficulty in finding staff keen to work shifts, nights and weekends whether as train crew, fitters or on stations despite growing societal demand for better services at ‘awkward’ times.

You do know the kinds of shifts that staff (particularly Traincrew) work as a matter of course yeah? I can't just decide that I don't fancy setting me alarm for 1AM for 5 days of ten hour long dead early shifts because I'm 'not keen to work them'. It is part of my job, there is no personal choice involved, it's part of the roster that I follow...

 

[Mike_Sa]

Wow, thank you so much. You've raised some really interesting topics for discussion.

I am particularly interested in understanding your views on your 3rd topic. How do you think that companies can possibly tackle that challenge around staffing?

Thank you

Welcome to the forum. Best wishes for your research.

A few suggested issues, building on your Chiltern example/case study:

In many areas easy scope for increasing capacity has been exhausted, e.g. no room for yet more platforms at Marylebone, track redoubling already done, line speeds increased, space at Birmingham Moor Street and Oxford for Chiltern services already taken up (allowing for other developments for other operators already planned).

Procurement of further rolling stock very difficult in view of looming diesel ‘ban’, long backlog of already-late deliveries of other fleets, lack of compatibility of newer designs with old.

Growing difficulty in finding staff keen to work shifts, nights and weekends whether as train crew, fitters or on stations despite growing societal demand for better services at ‘awkward’ times.

Growing performance problems on a ‘full’ railway, which new technologies such as ‘traffic management’ seem to be finding hard to crack.

A growing sense that the supply chain, project management, trade skills, etc. are under pressure (possibly associated with reduced access to skills from abroad) making any ‘schemes’ harder and slower to deliver.

To my mind these ‘hard’ problems are even more challenging than various organisational, political, financial, managerial and institutional issues that others will no doubt suggest.

 

[Mike_Sa]

Wow, thank you so much. You've raised some really interesting topics for discussion.

I am particularly interested in understanding your views on your 3rd topic. How do you think that companies can possibly tackle that challenge around staffing?

Thank you

 

[jamesst]

You do know the kinds of shifts that staff (particularly Traincrew) work as a matter of course yeah? I can't just decide that I don't fancy setting me alarm for 1AM for 5 days of ten hour long dead early shifts because I'm 'not keen to work them'. It is part of my job, there is no personal choice involved, it's part of the roster that I follow...

I'm not sure there is even any 'growing difficulty' finding staff, at my toc there's hundreds if not thousands apply for every position.
Whether the toc wants to hire extra staff instead of just relying on overtime though is a different matter...

 

[Metal_gee_man]

Wow, thank you so much. You've raised some really interesting topics for discussion.

I am particularly interested in understanding your views on your 3rd topic. How do you think that companies can possibly tackle that challenge around staffing?

Thank you

I think most Train Operators don't struggle for staff, pay someone £30k+ to be a guard or £50k+ a year to be a driver and the only qualification required is not being a dumbass and passing the industry standard tests...you'll never fail attracting applicants!
Very much like an air traffic controller, you don't need a degree to do the job, but an amazing analytical brain! Even gateline staff get paid well above minimum wage!

 

[Dieseldriver]

I'm not sure there is even any 'growing difficulty' finding staff, at my toc there's hundreds if not thousands apply for every position.
Whether the toc wants to hire extra staff instead of just relying on overtime though is a different matter...

Exactly! Think maybe another member with limited knowledge fancying a little dig at Railway Staff...

 

[Mike_Sa]

Thank you all for your insights.

Another interesting challenge is this: "Procurement of further rolling stock very difficult in view of looming diesel ‘ban’, long backlog of already-late deliveries of other fleets, lack of compatibility of newer designs with old".

How do you think this challenge can be addressed by railway companies?

 

[Dr Hoo]

Well, I worked in the industry for over 40 years and have done plenty of shifts, weekends, on-call, overtime and so forth in my time, thank you. Even back in the 1970s under BR it was amazing how difficult it was to cover weekend turns in particular. Fortunately I didn't follow sport, have a family at the time or have too much interest in things like gigs and clubbing, so I coined it on overtime and rest days. Brand new car for cash in a year? No problem!

I have plenty of admiration for today's generation of front line staff but equally come across many young people (obviously not on the railway) who would not consider 'unsocial' working times. Family members in other 24/7 professions, such as the NHS, also report difficulties in recruiting and covering for these times.

The straightforward 'solution' is to pay as much as it takes to attract staff, of course. (There may also be more controversial options such as agencies.) But to my mind that starts to raise interesting questions such as whether fares for weekend or night journeys ought to be higher. I think that there are also growing concerns over the health implications of shift work and safety implications of fatigue that money simply can't answer.

 

[Dr Hoo]

Thank you all for your insights.

Another interesting challenge is this: "Procurement of further rolling stock very difficult in view of looming diesel ‘ban’, long backlog of already-late deliveries of other fleets, lack of compatibility of newer designs with old".

How do you think this challenge can be addressed by railway companies?

There are several aspects to this problem:

Firstly, uncertainty over the technologies to be applied. There are various possibilities around biofuels, liquified natural gas, batteries, fuel cells, hydrogen, regeneration/energy capture, etc. that might help but the picture is changing very rapidly - giving a Betamax/DVD/CD conundrum.

Secondly, there are a range of suppliers offering various new niche/bespoke products for the unique British loading gauge and platform heights which all suffer from high design costs, lengthy testing/acceptance procedures and so forth rather than much scope for run-on orders as old designs are effectively obsolete for various reasons - emissions, weight, door configuration related to dwell times to name a few.

Thirdly the train companies have very little buying power as they are not in a position to offer repeat orders. Everyone can see a drop-off in demand after the current peak. Obviously *some* more new trains will be needed in future but these will be spread across HS2, probably some type of hybrid or bi-mode for routes that won't be fully electrified, some tram-trains for routes as yet un-chosen, more tube trains, Crossrail 2, some higher speed/higher quality longer distance cross-country trains. Still modest numbers of each and still spread across multiple customers ('national rail', TfL, HS2, devolved transport bodies/PTE-successors). I think that the DfT used to talk about "low fungibility".

 

[underbank]

The straightforward 'solution' is to pay as much as it takes to attract staff

But if staff are already well paid for normal hours and suffer higher tax on extra hours, they may value their time off as more important than a bit (to them) more money. For enhanced overtime pay to attract volunteers, the worker really needs to "need" the money. If basic pay is already attractive, few mat "need" to do overtime. No amount of enhanced pay would attract some workers to do it, so it's not all about money sometimes.

Just look at GPs. Experienced/partner GPs are working fewer hours to keep their pay under £100k so they avoid the punitive 62% tax rate and avoid excess pension payments into their already over-funded superannuation pension scheme. That's the unforeseen consequences of the LibDem's "squueze the rich" tax hikes - worsening the GP crisis.

 

[Bevan Price]

I think you might also consider the future of rail freight. Coal traffic has almost gone. How long will biomass traffic last, especially if some of the enviro nutters get their way and see much of the country swamped by wind turbines?

How can more rail freight be attracted when the vociferous "roads lobby" seems to have so much influence on civil service and government thinking?

 

[Panupreset]

How is the industry going to continue to assure safety and guard against safety complacency? There is ever growing focus on performance, and it’s been so long since a major accident on the UK rail network.

 

[ComUtoR]

Staffing problems are more about the culture of the country and employees as well as the outdated working culture of the railway. It isn't something that can be solved in the long term by throwing more money at it.

 

[hooverboy]

The straightforward 'solution' is to pay as much as it takes to attract staff, of course. (There may also be more controversial options such as agencies.) But to my mind that starts to raise interesting questions such as whether fares for weekend or night journeys ought to be higher. I think that there are also growing concerns over the health implications of shift work and safety implications of fatigue that money simply can't answer.

well alternating shift patterns ARE are a health hazard!
you're basically subjecting your body to "jetlag" on a weekly/bi-weekly basis.
I would suggest that for a position where you need to be on the ball,carrying hundreds of passengers,then you need to be sharp and alert...which you most certainly won't be if you are overtired through adjusted sleep /waking patterns.

..once a habit is formed, the body clock will adjust properly after about a week,and responses will be "normal"

if the unions care so much about safety,then this should be brought up!
then they and the ToC's should have a long hard look about when the cover is needed, and arrange for suitable premiums in addition to salary to compensate.

some people are naturally early risers, some are night owls.
it should not be so difficult to find out who prefers to work what shift on a permanent basis, and then add a bit extra as an incentive for the "problem" shifts.

 

[coppercapped]

As you are starting a Ph. D. you will realise that you have to become not only THE world expert in your particular topic but also an expert in all the surrounding areas. The viva voce exam can throw really nasty curved balls at you...

So what I am trying to say is that you really have to understand the history - how and why the current situation developed in the railway industry, how has the economic, technical, social and political framework in which the railways operate changed. And how these are likely to change in the future - certainly within the timespan of your study. Only then will you be able, in my opinion, to properly scope the different challenges and get some idea of their relative importance.

If I were you I would try to find some good sources (preferably academic, but there are some good general books) giving a 'tour d'horizon' of the main periods of development - the early railways and the legal framework, financing, civil and mechanical engineering, commercial developments and the plethora of studies which have been made since the Second World War. I say this because the railway industry is unbelievably complex - the internal interactions between various parts of the 'system' are closely interlinked and the interactions between the railway and its customers (both passenger and freight), its neighbours, the general public, its suppliers, the legal and regulatory framework and funders are myriad.

What isn't clear to me is the background to the Ph.D. topic. Are you approaching it from a financial perspective, from an economic perspective, from a sociological perspective, or political, organisational or technical perspectives? Your approach will obviously differ considerably depending on the study's emphasis.

I wish you every success. And start writing the thesis NOW, it can always be changed as it develops. Don't do all the research and THEN start writing - if you do you will never finish...!

 

[hwl]

As you are starting a Ph. D. you will realise that you have to become not only THE world expert in your particular topic but also an expert in all the surrounding areas. The viva voce exam can throw really nasty curved balls at you...

So what I am trying to say is that you really have to understand the history - how and why the current situation developed in the railway industry, how has the economic, technical, social and political framework in which the railways operate changed. And how these are likely to change in the future - certainly within the timespan of your study. Only then will you be able, in my opinion, to properly scope the different challenges and get some idea of their relative importance.

If I were you I would try to find some good sources (preferably academic, but there are some good general books) giving a 'tour d'horizon' of the main periods of development - the early railways and the legal framework, financing, civil and mechanical engineering, commercial developments and the plethora of studies which have been made since the Second World War. I say this because the railway industry is unbelievably complex - the internal interactions between various parts of the 'system' are closely interlinked and the interactions between the railway and its customers (both passenger and freight), its neighbours, the general public, its suppliers, the legal and regulatory framework and funders are myriad.

What isn't clear to me is the background to the Ph.D. topic. Are you approaching it from a financial perspective, from an economic perspective, from a sociological perspective, or political, organisational or technical perspectives? Your approach will obviously differ considerably depending on the study's emphasis.

I wish you every success. And start writing the thesis NOW, it can always be changed as it develops. Don't do all the research and THEN start writing - if you do you will never finish...!

Excellent advice, the only bit (having had the experience) where I would differ is start writing some parts not attempting to tackle everything at once.

 

[hwl]

Welcome to the forum. Best wishes for your research.

A few suggested issues, building on your Chiltern example/case study:

In many areas easy scope for increasing capacity has been exhausted, e.g. no room for yet more platforms at Marylebone, track redoubling already done, line speeds increased, space at Birmingham Moor Street and Oxford for Chiltern services already taken up (allowing for other developments for other operators already planned).

Procurement of further rolling stock very difficult in view of looming diesel ‘ban’, long backlog of already-late deliveries of other fleets, lack of compatibility of newer designs with old.

Growing difficulty in finding staff keen to work shifts, nights and weekends whether as train crew, fitters or on stations despite growing societal demand for better services at ‘awkward’ times.

Growing performance problems on a ‘full’ railway, which new technologies such as ‘traffic management’ seem to be finding hard to crack.

A growing sense that the supply chain, project management, trade skills, etc. are under pressure (possibly associated with reduced access to skills from abroad) making any ‘schemes’ harder and slower to deliver.

To my mind these ‘hard’ problems are even more challenging than various organisational, political, financial, managerial and institutional issues that others will no doubt suggest.

1. The 2040 diesel ban isn't actually quite what it appears, it is a "diesel only" ban. Diesel Bi-Mode or Hybrid designs are permitted. MTU already has an off-shelf DMU hybrid system used in Germany that will be trailed by Porterbrook and Bombardier in 2019 (turbostar retrofit), Angel are going to trial a different system on Chiltern 165 later this year. It will be a bigger issue for freight.

2. Companies that are performing better than the industry standard often have nothing to do with the company input but other underlying reasons. e.g.:
a) simpler networks e.g. C2C and Chiltern
b) have had infrastructure renewal (especially whole route) in hence recent enough past (e.g. infrastructure mid life on bath tub curve) [Often DfT as the authoriser]
c) have newish rolling stock that is good quality reliable and it is sufficient.
d) critical infrastructure limitations the relative number of grade separated junctions e.g. why SWR/T traditionally performed slight better than Southern.

3. There is very much an "at the right place at the right time" element to company success, this may not be Chiltern in the future as the challenges will have fewer easy solutions.

4. Change (e.g. infrastructure works and new rolling stock introduction) is always disruptive and leads to lower performance levels temporarily. Southern is now performing much better after 6 years of big changes.

5. A few recent history impacts on current Franchises:
a) Southeastern Rolling stock order cut back in early 1990s recession. HAs lead to continuous crowding issues ever since.
b) The long "No Growth" Franchsies of the 2000s: Scotrail Northern and Wales & Borders lots of the current performance issues has roots in the assumptions at the start of previous franchises and some time policies in place for a while before that. e.g. Dft adopting the SRA "No Growth" philosophy (as growth would required increased subsidy.

 

[andythebrave]

I think you might also consider the future of rail freight. Coal traffic has almost gone. How long will biomass traffic last, especially if some of the enviro nutters get their way and see much of the country swamped by wind turbines?

I would think 'enviro denier nutters' would be a more appropriate phrase.

 

[underbank]

it should not be so difficult to find out who prefers to work what shift on a permanent basis, and then add a bit extra as an incentive for the "problem" shifts.

Presumably to be paid for by a wage reduction for those workers who don't want to be rostered for the problem shifts? After all, the current pay is based upon some level of anti-social shifts. So if you want to pay more for those who'd prefer those, then you're left with less anti-social shifts that shouldn't command a premium pay level.

 

[Tomnick]

Presumably to be paid for by a wage reduction for those workers who don't want to be rostered for the problem shifts? After all, the current pay is based upon some level of anti-social shifts. So if you want to pay more for those who'd prefer those, then you're left with less anti-social shifts that shouldn't command a premium pay level.

I don’t know why you’d need to. Everyone sees “problem shifts” differently. Some hate early starts, some hate late finishes. A lot of TOCs are willing and able to accommodate swaps between one of each, so you either work permanent earlies or permanent lates. There’s still unsociable hours, but you’re in the wrong job if you don’t want those at all - and the rate of pay reflects the fact that plenty of people wouldn’t like it. Personally, I like the variety. Earlies are more tiring but lates mean less family time and more stress at home, so an alternating pattern balances it out at least.