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Chiltern timetable - what if it wasn't about Brum-London?

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Bletchleyite

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@Ianno87 asked in the HS2 thread:

An interesting theoretical exercise would be what would the Chiltern timetable look like if it were less designed around chasing Birmingham-London revenue.

We may well find out when HS2 opens (as 4 competing TOCs might be a bit of overkill) - but what are peoples' views on what could be done and would work if the "route High Wycombe" tickets didn't exist and therefore that income wasn't a motivator?
 
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Ianno87

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Random thoughts...

1) Would you run north of Banbury at all, or make do with XC connections (with suitable capacity, of course)? WMT would fill in again north of Leamington. Presumably there is some form of market from High Wycombe etc to reach Birmingham, but maybe not 2tph worth.

2) Oxford would still be a big market both from Marylebone (to complement GWR), plus intermediate locations.

3) The Aylesbury-High Wycombe market could probably be served better too.
 

The Planner

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Banbury to Brum is/was growing massively, the XC path that eventually gets put via Cov is already earmarked for an extra Banbury Birmingham service from what I hear. Clearly there is a Banbury and Bicester to London flow, so the overall route should stay in my view. The future probably won't allow it, but I could envisage them in the past getting aggressive with peak Oxford London flows and putting more in.
 

30907

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Random thoughts...

1) Would you run north of Banbury at all, or make do with XC connections (with suitable capacity, of course)? WMT would fill in again north of Leamington. Presumably there is some form of market from High Wycombe etc to reach Birmingham, but maybe not 2tph worth.

2) Oxford would still be a big market both from Marylebone (to complement GWR), plus intermediate locations.

3) The Aylesbury-High Wycombe market could probably be served better too.
Leamington and Warwick to London will still be a significant flow, Solihull less so. Chilterns to Birmingham will also remain important.
I wonder if the Stratford service will swap to a fast path with Snow Hill having 2 of the slower ones?

PS No doubt there will yet another rejig of outer suburban stops - but there's also questions about electrification and fleet replacement over the HS2 timescale.
 

Ianno87

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Leamington and Warwick to London will still be a significant flow, Solihull less so.

Completely forgot about Leamington/Warwick! I agree, no way could they realistically lose London services.
 

JonathanH

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I wonder if the Stratford service will swap to a fast path with Snow Hill having 2 of the slower ones?
Yes, I think that is the answer - make Stratford and Oxford the fasts and put more stops (ie Gerrards Cross, Beaconsfield, High Wycombe, Princes Risborough, Haddenham & Thame Parkway) in all the trains that run to Birmingham. One possible problem is that only 1tph can go to Stratford and train lengths are restricted whereas more can run to Birmingham.

Moreover, charge the same fare (or more) for Birmingham to London as it costs on Avanti, and in the future, HS2.

[I do think that fares should be harmonised pretty soon on the London to Birmingham and other similar flows (including LNR) at the Avanti level so there isn't a backlash about HS2 fares when it is finished - ie HS2 should be the cheapest route when it opens and not more expensive than any other route was the day before it opens. Maybe it could be phased in over a few years as HS2 approaches.]

Whether it would be possible to flight the services with a slower Birmingham train probably constrains what can be done.
 
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The Planner

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Yes, I think that is the answer - make Stratford and Oxford the fasts and put more stops (ie Gerrards Cross, Beaconsfield, High Wycombe, Princes Risborough, Haddenham & Thame Parkway) in all the trains that run to Birmingham. One possible problem is that only 1tph can go to Stratford and train lengths are restricted whereas more can run to Birmingham.
You are ok at Stratford itself, Bearley is a problem child but its not a hive of activity, everywhere else seems good for 6 cars (Wilmcote and Hatton would need slight extensions for 6)
 

cle

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I think i just wrote something similar, but I don't see the issue with the Birmingham services. They serve multiple purposes.

They are the prime Warwick / Leamington / Banbury services to both London and Birmingham. So in the peaks, they will load both ways. There are also outer to city markets (High Wycombe to Brum, Solihull to London) - which again overlap nicely. I think it surely works very well, and the market will decide if it loses a lot of direct London-Birmingham traffic. I suspect it will. But if they want to price it to compete, let's let them. It's one of the only true competitive rail markets out there. Same as Oxford.

Stopping patterns I'm sure can be amended. More could be sent to Oxford and Stratford too, in the HW and Banbury terminators. Oxford/EWR may well have capacity, given the fairly lacklustre outputs planned for that. Aylesbury to HW line is pitiful.

A seat turning at Banbury (London-Ban, Ban-Brum) is surely the best outcome, assuming the two fares are more than a through Brum. That is why XC is so lucrative in its core - multiple bums aka sales on the same seat capacity.
 

JamesT

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Yes, I think that is the answer - make Stratford and Oxford the fasts and put more stops (ie Gerrards Cross, Beaconsfield, High Wycombe, Princes Risborough, Haddenham & Thame Parkway) in all the trains that run to Birmingham. One possible problem is that only 1tph can go to Stratford and train lengths are restricted whereas more can run to Birmingham.

Moreover, charge the same fare (or more) for Birmingham to London as it costs on Avanti, and in the future, HS2.

[I do think that fares should be harmonised pretty soon on the London to Birmingham and other similar flows (including LNR) at the Avanti level so there isn't a backlash about HS2 fares when it is finished - ie HS2 should be the cheapest route when it opens and not more expensive than any other route was the day before it opens. Maybe it could be phased in over a few years as HS2 approaches.]

Whether it would be possible to flight the services with a slower Birmingham train probably constrains what can be done.

I wouldn't want to make Chiltern's Oxford services just fast. There is some commuting into Oxford from places along that line, but the current offering looks a little sparse (e.g. Princes Risborough doesn't have any direct off-peak services to Oxford, Haddenham & Thame only has 1tph off-peak). A more frequent service would be more likely to get people out of their cars.
 

Bald Rick

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An interesting theoretical exercise would be what would the Chiltern timetable look like if it were less designed around chasing Birmingham-London revenue.

I suspect we will find out in the next year or so.
 

Bletchleyite

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[I do think that fares should be harmonised pretty soon on the London to Birmingham and other similar flows (including LNR) at the Avanti level so there isn't a backlash about HS2 fares when it is finished - ie HS2 should be the cheapest route when it opens and not more expensive than any other route was the day before it opens. Maybe it could be phased in over a few years as HS2 approaches.]

HS2 is likely to be yield managed, compulsory reservation and no through ticketing, i.e. airline/SNCF style, so there won't be "a fare", it will be whatever it is on that train at that time dependent on demand. That means you'll be able to hide a higher average per-capita fare behind ten quid specials and the likes. Very unlikely there will be an "open return" to do the fallacious Manchester-London comparison against airlines, for example.

I'd think there will then likely be fares for classic trains, but probably lower as they are no longer the premium service.

I wouldn't want to make Chiltern's Oxford services just fast. There is some commuting into Oxford from places along that line, but the current offering looks a little sparse (e.g. Princes Risborough doesn't have any direct off-peak services to Oxford, Haddenham & Thame only has 1tph off-peak). A more frequent service would be more likely to get people out of their cars.

If the Oxfords were fast you'd want to ensure there was a good connection at Haddenham and for it to stop there.
 

Aictos

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Yes, I think that is the answer - make Stratford and Oxford the fasts and put more stops (ie Gerrards Cross, Beaconsfield, High Wycombe, Princes Risborough, Haddenham & Thame Parkway) in all the trains that run to Birmingham. One possible problem is that only 1tph can go to Stratford and train lengths are restricted whereas more can run to Birmingham.

Moreover, charge the same fare (or more) for Birmingham to London as it costs on Avanti, and in the future, HS2.

[I do think that fares should be harmonised pretty soon on the London to Birmingham and other similar flows (including LNR) at the Avanti level so there isn't a backlash about HS2 fares when it is finished - ie HS2 should be the cheapest route when it opens and not more expensive than any other route was the day before it opens. Maybe it could be phased in over a few years as HS2 approaches.]

Whether it would be possible to flight the services with a slower Birmingham train probably constrains what can be done.
Why slow the Birmingham's with all those extra stops, why not have a 1tph fast for both Oxford and Birmingham and the 2nd train per hour as a semi fast to both Oxford and Birmingham giving High Wycombe etc direct connections without reducing the Birmingham's to a all stations service.

As that seems fairer and spreads the loadings equally across both routes instead of making one route take all the stops.
 

cle

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3tph to Oxford seems fair - a semi-fast would enable commuting from Gerrards Cross, Beaconsfield, Haddenham, Princes etc reliably all day. But keeping 2tph fast - I'd guess, one HW and one non-stop to Bicester.

As I said above, there would definitely be space on the line. And EWR won't be for many years, this could begin much sooner.
 

higthomas

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I note how the stations inside High Wycombe have barely got a mention.

On any other line in the South East, the likes of Northolt Park, Denham etc would have a 2tph minimum service, but obviously Chiltern have gone for the much more profitable Oxford etc. services in preference.
 

Bletchleyite

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I note how the stations inside High Wycombe have barely got a mention.

On any other line in the South East, the likes of Northolt Park, Denham etc would have a 2tph minimum service, but obviously Chiltern have gone for the much more profitable Oxford etc. services in preference.

I guess as a commuter line you'd want to base it on a 2tph pattern. The classic South East approach might be something like this:

2tph Bicester North, all stations to Birmingham
2tph High Wycombe, all stations to Oxford
2tph all stations to High Wycombe

...which you'd be able to flight reasonably easily on a two track railway if sent out in that order.

This gives every station a reasonable 2tph service to London plus a connection north (which has near-caught up by the time the stopper terminates, and vice versa southbound), but the more important stations 4tph, 2 fast and 2 slow (though Bicester would see those split across the two stations). The old south WCML pattern was largely based on that sort of approach.

Oxford fasts go to Paddington so there's no sense in competing with them per-se.
 

Bald Rick

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I guess as a commuter line you'd want to base it on a 2tph pattern. The classic South East approach might be something like this:

2tph Bicester North, all stations to Birmingham
2tph High Wycombe, all stations to Oxford
2tph all stations to High Wycombe

...which you'd be able to flight reasonably easily on a two track railway if sent out in that order.

This gives every station a reasonable 2tph service to London plus a connection north (which has near-caught up by the time the stopper terminates, and vice versa southbound), but the more important stations 4tph, 2 fast and 2 slow (though Bicester would see those split across the two stations). The old south WCML pattern was largely based on that sort of approach.

Oxford fasts go to Paddington so there's no sense in competing with them per-se.

That breaks all connections from stations south of Bicester North to stations north thereof.
 

HST43257

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Would you run north of Banbury at all, or make do with XC connections (with suitable capacity, of course)? WMT would fill in again north of Leamington. Presumably there is some form of market from High Wycombe etc to reach Birmingham, but maybe not 2tph worth.
Leamington, Solihull and Dorridge surely ought to keep a direct London service. Could make the 2nd Birmingham service go to Stratford-upon-Avon so they get a better, faster service. I can see that Solihull will be very close to HS2 but that super budget option should still be available.

The Aylesbury-High Wycombe market could probably be served better too.
What about OOC - High Wycombe - Aylesbury as part of East West Rail? Double track and speed up the Aylesbury to Princes Risborough route probably.
 

Ianno87

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Good point. Add Haddenham and Thame Parkway to the fast, avoiding that problem.

I'd add High Wycombe, as that's a reasonable market (And gives a direct Birmingham connection out of the 'inner' service). Or maybe 1tph High Wycombe, 1tph Princes Risborough (for an Aylesbury connection northwards).
 

172007

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What about Kidderminster services. They go surely?

If the new concession system has a common fare box then arguments about which concession gets the fare take no longer exist. Pulling Chiltern out of this route means less trains for commuters. If we assume that 20% of commuters don't return after Covid to work each day then we are stuck in 2010 ish passenger volumes (very modest 2% increase each year which no compounding either) and still overcrowding on Stourbridge to Birmingham rush hour.

Would the concession be split into London Overground for everything South of B'ham except for a handful of rush-hour trains to Kidderminster by the WM Trains concession.
 

quantinghome

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HS2 is likely to be yield managed, compulsory reservation and no through ticketing, i.e. airline/SNCF style, so there won't be "a fare", it will be whatever it is on that train at that time dependent on demand.
Who knows. I can see the first two happening but I can't see through-ticketing disappearing. Rail needs to operate as an integrated network. What I would consider doing (tbh we should probably do this anyway) is make the HS2 tickets to/from Leeds (say) valid to/from any West Yorkshire station, and similar for all other HS2 stations.
 

Class 170101

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You are ok at Stratford itself, Bearley is a problem child but its not a hive of activity, everywhere else seems good for 6 cars (Wilmcote and Hatton would need slight extensions for 6)

Why are platform extensions needed? SDO surely will be enough? I can't see the government being too rail friendly in the near future.
 

The Planner

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Why are platform extensions needed? SDO surely will be enough? I can't see the government being too rail friendly in the near future.
Based on 168s being 23.6 long and not using SDO for ease. You need a 142m platform, Wilmcote is too short, Claverdon needs 4m, Hatton needs 8m. No one is suggesting doing this anyway.
 

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Who knows. I can see the first two happening but I can't see through-ticketing disappearing. Rail needs to operate as an integrated network. What I would consider doing (tbh we should probably do this anyway) is make the HS2 tickets to/from Leeds (say) valid to/from any West Yorkshire station, and similar for all other HS2 stations.

I concur with integrating HS2 with the rest of the country, which makes it much more accessible to the whole country in general.

Surely all that needs to be done is to offer a 'Plus HS2' fare that is more expensive than the classic network fare, but with mandatory reservations perhaps. Such reservations need to be easy to make though, from what I've read on ash39's trip reports in 2020 it wasn't hard work to make last minute reservations on LNER, I think it could easily be done in an app? I've not looked so I don't know.

The important thing there would be that a passenger can do so easily on their own device, and not have to faff around at a ticket office where one exists. My personal view is that if I've got my e-ticket on my phone, I want to have my reservation easily organised on that. Given the multitude of TOC apps available, I don't know how easy it would be to implement a reservation system, but it sure needs to be user-friendly.

Integrated fares, vital in my view. I'm very excited about HS2, the opportunity to race up and down the country guarantees my using it whenever practical. I would even divert to Birmingham on a trip to Manchester just to use HS2, it's a longer trip than using TfW via Shrewsbury but it would be more fun :D However, what would ruin my use of it would be if I have to buy my tickets to Birmingham then a separate fare for HS2. The Manchester example I'd expect to do that, but for a Hereford to London (or hopefully one day to Leeds/York/Newcastle) I'd expect a through ticket with a HS2 option.

Anyway! Back to this Chiltern discussion, and I suspect there will always be a market for decent speed Birmingham services. Without a Route High Wycombe fare, I doubt it would have been as popular as it has become though. Said routing will remain popular even after HS2, not everyone will find the new route as useful/interesting/otherwise desireable.

Personally, I get very bored on the Chiltern route, so I'm not a huge fan. Indeed, if it hadn't been for the 67s and 68s over the years I probably wouldn't have gone that way much at all. I do find the WCML South route to get a bit tedious sometimes, if I'm on a slower service, but I much prefer it to the Chiltern line. Even if I'm on a 350 on a low fare!

Will fast Birmingham services remain in the future? I would imagine so, although I have to say I do miss the days of it being non-stop Bicester North to London Marylebone. I don't miss the slow turnout into the old platform at Bicester North mind, I'm glad that was fixed!

As for the Chiltern route to Oxford, I've never done it throughout however I have seen how incredibly busy it used to be so I'd certainly keep that going. How busy it will be when non-essential retail returns remains to be seen, but based on both my own feelings and that of just about everyone I work with, I will be shocked if it's not back to normal very quickly. I'm talking Day 1, Morning 1 of the end of lockdown quickly. I also don't see such a level of demand dropping too fast either, indeed I predict the railway is going to be very busy again very quickly. Not so much in the traditional peaks, perhaps, but those of us not on a Monday-Friday 9-5 style job will certainly be there in no time! That's a different topic though...

In summary then, my view is that there will inevitably be a few changes to Chiltern's services long-term but even after HS2 launches I suspect it will be mostly in the traditional London commuter areas. Their longer distance stuff will probably continue much as currently
 

SynthD

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...Pulling Chiltern out of this route means less trains for commuters...

Would the concession be split into London Overground for everything South of B'ham except for a handful of rush-hour trains to Kidderminster by the WM Trains concession.
You want to electrify up to Snow Hill or Solihull only to give it to five carriage trains with longitudinal seats?
 

Bletchleyite

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You want to electrify up to Snow Hill or Solihull only to give it to five carriage trains with longitudinal seats?

There would be a case for the Wycombe stopper being LO, but a fairly weak one (it's more analogous to the Tring stopper than the Watford LO service), but not the rest of it.

Indeed it's so analogous to the Tring stopper when you look at traffic (though not to the northern terminus, perhaps), distance, number of stops, running time etc that the two can be compared very well to see what benefits electrification might bring.
 

philosopher

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As for the Chiltern route to Oxford, I've never done it throughout however I have seen how incredibly busy it used to be so I'd certainly keep that going. How busy it will be when non-essential retail returns remains to be seen, but based on both my own feelings and that of just about everyone I work with, I will be shocked if it's not back to normal very quickly. I'm talking Day 1, Morning 1 of the end of lockdown quickly. I also don't see such a level of demand dropping too fast either, indeed I predict the railway is going to be very busy again very quickly. Not so much in the traditional peaks, perhaps, but those of us not on a Monday-Friday 9-5 style job will certainly be there in no time! That's a different topic though...

In summary then, my view is that there will inevitably be a few changes to Chiltern's services long-term but even after HS2 launches I suspect it will be mostly in the traditional London commuter areas. Their longer distance stuff will probably continue much as currently
Chiltern’s trains to Oxford are extremely popular with tourists visiting Bicester Village Shopping Centre. So much so that there signs at Marylebone Station in Arabic and Mandarin aimed at tourists visiting Bicester Village Shopping Centre. Once tourists are allowed to visit the UK fairly freely, then the Oxford service is once again going to become busy.

Therefore there is a strong argument for keeping the fast services to Oxford to keep these tourists using these services.
 

Bletchleyite

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Chiltern’s trains to Oxford are extremely popular with tourists visiting Bicester Village Shopping Centre. So much so that there signs at Marylebone Station in Arabic and Mandarin aimed at tourists visiting Bicester Village Shopping Centre. Once tourists are allowed to visit the UK fairly freely, then the Oxford service is once again going to become busy.

Therefore there is a strong argument for keeping the fast services to Oxford to keep these tourists using these services.

The tourists would use the services because they provide a direct service to Bicester Village (though goodness knows what they see in the place, I'd rather poke my own eyeballs out than go there, though Bicester itself is not an unpleasant little town to wander round). They would still use them even if they had more stops.
 

Ianno87

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The only rationale for keeping the Chiltern Oxford services reasonably fast would be to form a "4tph" Oxford-London service when combined with GWR via Reading, plus the London market from Oxford Parkway.
 
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