Class 387 to GN

[D365]

Whilst I'm sure that it is true (I have used the Great Northern at peak hours), I thought that passenger consensus of late has been that 3+2 seating should be avoided at all costs.

 

[Failed Unit]

It is hard to know how the new timetable will work, but must admit it doesnt look positive. I am hoping the extra stock in the short term will strengthen existing services such as 1652 Kings cross - Cambridge. This is of course hoped and not stated.

Longer term will be interest to see if the extra trains in general will mean people from Hitchin and Stevenage avoid the ones stopping south of Stevenage. But until we see a timetable we just won't know. Staying on the slow will be an unacceptable decrease in journey time.

 

[notverydeep]

Less seats = more standing room = more people moved. I think that's more important.

I can’t access the railway industries Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) online as far as I can see, but TfL’s equivalent appraisal guidance for train services is detailed in a document called the Business Case Development Manual: https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/guidelines_for_cost_benefit_anal#incoming-495035. This gives their method of calculating the ‘penalty’ for standing and crowding on trains.

The penalty is part of a concept called ‘Generalised Journey Time’. This is the combination of all of the time components of a journey from Door to Door, including the walk to the station, wait for the train, in vehicle time etc. Some of these components attract penalties, kind of based on how annoying an average passenger finds them – or put another way how long they perceive has elapsed rather than how long actually has. Everyone’s individual penalty is different. Jonmorris0844 clearly has a much lower standing penalty than I have. You can demonstrate this effect for yourself next time you train stops at a signal - assuming you are not the driver! Look at your watch, then don’t look again until the train moves. As soon as it does move guess how much time has passed and then look again at your watch. You can do this for buses too, look at your watch on arrival at a bus stop as well and when the bus comes guess how long you have waited then compare it to the actual time. Most people will guess more time than has actually passed. It is this phenomena that underlies the ‘weightings’ used for activities in Transport Scheme Appraisal.

Back to TFL’s Business Case Development Manual. This gives a formula to calculate the weighting that an average passenger experiences when travelling where there are not sufficient seats for all passengers. The formula is on page E-8 and (in my interpretation) says that the crowding penalty is equal to 0.09 + (2.11-1.13 x Y(which seems to be Train Seats / Crush Capacity) x X(Train load – Train Seats / Crush Capacity – Train Seats). The result would be the overall average weighting for all passengers, both those standing and sitting.

I don’t have any ‘Standing Capacity’ data for National Rail rolling stock types, but I think the measure ‘PIXC’ (Passengers In Excess of Capacity) regards standing ‘capacity’ to be 40% of the seating capacity, so for a pair of class 317s this would be a maximum 234 standees to 584 seats (of both classes). Of course presumably PIXC cannot be applied to class 700s in the same way, as they are deliberately intended to increase the standing capacity beyond this level, although I could find ‘official’ numbers. An FOI at this link https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/assessment_of_class_700_rolling suggests that the seating capacity is 37% of the design capacity, but the DfT’s answer to the FOI was basically no comment.

I have used the formula to calculate the weighting for a loading of 650 passengers (66 standees on a pair of class 317s) as this seems is my guestimate what I see on the 08:25 – most standees in the centre of the train, fewer at the rear, but by no means crush loaded, you can usually get a middle seat if you board in the right place. On the basis of PIXC, turning this train into a pair of 387s however will put it over crush capacity, which is 625 using the PIXC formula of 446 seats plus 40%!

I do not know the origins of the first three numbers and how applicable they are outside of TfL, but I would expect that the weighting ‘penalty’ would increase with length of standing journey, so the numbers this formula gives are likely to be an underestimate for longer journeys.

For the 08:25, which is scheduled to take 16 minutes to Finsbury Park (I actually travel to King’s Cross, but the train is less crowded after Finsbury Park), the formula gives total time of 23.3 minutes including penalty time of 7.3 minutes for class 317s. For class 387s, the total time is 41.1 minutes for the same number of passengers over the same journey – a penalty of 25.1 minutes! GTR are going to get letters… To be fair to the 387s, if you allow a higher standing capacity than PIXC in the formula, the penalty falls. Assume crush capacity is 75% of the seats and the penalty would be 15.7 minutes (31.7 minutes total).

For an 8 car class 700, I have assumed that the two extra stops planned in the Thameslink Timetable Consultation add 7.5 minutes. This is the average difference between the 07:27 and 08:59 trains from WGC which make these stops compared to the 07:55 and 08:25 which don’t . For the same load as in the 317 example, the formula gives 31.8 minutes, a penalty of 15.8 minutes compared to now less than the 387s, but likely more in reality as it seems reasonable to suggest that the loads after Hatfield and Potters Bar will be higher. Still worse than the 317s we have now - for Welwyn Garden City at least, not really an 'upgrade'.

 

[swt_passenger]

Whilst I'm sure that it is true (I have used the Great Northern at peak hours), I thought that passenger consensus of late has been that 3+2 seating should be avoided at all costs.

Only if they are in the 80% that still gets a seat. Some posts must be made by people in the other 20%.

 

[bramling]

Whilst I'm sure that it is true (I have used the Great Northern at peak hours), I thought that passenger consensus of late has been that 3+2 seating should be avoided at all costs.

If you get a seat, then maybe yes.

I'm not so sure people who no longer get a seat a result of the seating being changed would agree.

Bear in mind that, in the AM peak at least, it's likely to be the same individuals losing out on a daily basis.

It's also worth noting that many people find 3+2 seating preferable at off-peak times too. On a 2+2 train, three people occupying a bay of four facing seats will mean people are having to sit next to each other and/or share legroom, whereas on a 3+2 train they wouldn't have to if occupying a bay of six facing seats. If making a longer journey, being able to stretch one's legs out makes quite a positive difference to comfort.

 

[Failed Unit]

Tonight I took the 1659 Finsbury Park to Cambridge. This is an anything goes diagram. Tonight it was a 365, for the first time in a long while i needed to stand. If a 317 or 321 turns up I don't. So I can see the posters point. The 2+2 will force people to stand on this service. Not sure if everyone will get a seat after WGC or not, but I can see why passengers won't see the 387 as an improvement on this run.

That said when the 700s turn up it can no longer be 4 car. ??????

 

[bramling]

Tonight I took the 1659 Finsbury Park to Cambridge. This is an anything goes diagram. Tonight it was a 365, for the first time in a long while i needed to stand. If a 317 or 321 turns up I don't. So I can see the posters point. The 2+2 will force people to stand on this service. Not sure if everyone will get a seat after WGC or not, but I can see why passengers won't see the 387 as an improvement on this run.

That said when the 700s turn up it can no longer be 4 car. ??????

With regard to the class 700s, it will of course be a benefit that there's no chance of a 4-car, but the comparison between an 8-car 317 and an 8-car 700 will be quite marked. We wait to see what frequency gains these stations may or may not get, but it doesn't sound like good news.

 

[Failed Unit]

With regard to the class 700s, it will of course be a benefit that there's no chance of a 4-car, but the comparison between an 8-car 317 and an 8-car 700 will be quite marked. We wait to see what frequency gains these stations may or may not get, but it doesn't sound like good news.

I agree. As posted earlier our only hope is that passengers north of knebworth find the 12 coach services that are non-stop from Stevenage more attractive.

 

[Hadders]

I agree. As posted earlier our only hope is that passengers north of knebworth find the 12 coach services that are non-stop from Stevenage more attractive.

How many of the non-stop Stevenage services will be 12-car? I suspect the majority of them will end up being 8-car.

Remember the majority of the 700s are 8-car, not 12.

 

[jon0844]

A bigger problem will be that if you want a seat, you currently get to King's Cross and walk down. As long as you're not there just before departure, you'll get a seat.

When the trains run through the core, what chance of getting a seat then? Maybe with a lot of people getting off at St Pancras, you'll be fine, but I am not sure it will be as easy to guarantee a seat (with some forward planning). Because I will probably prefer the flexibility of getting a slow from Moorgate, I'll be using Finsbury Park more than now in the coming years - so I too am concerned about getting a seat in comparison.

Still, I've managed to get a seat on the train almost all the time in the last 16 years (bar football matches and disruption) so maybe I'll have to accept that as usage continues to grow, it just isn't going to be - and I'll just have to consider it good to get home on time; something I'm not so sure about once many trains will be coming from much further afield.

 

[adamedwards]

Anyone know when the first 387s might be in service?

I was assuming that they will be used on the fast trains to Cambridge cascading the 365s to humbler duties like Hatfield. If they can then cascade out the 6 car 313s used on services to and from Kings Cross I will be very happy!

 

[Ianno87]

Anyone know when the first 387s might be in service?

I was assuming that they will be used on the fast trains to Cambridge cascading the 365s to humbler duties like Hatfield. If they can then cascade out the 6 car 313s used on services to and from Kings Cross I will be very happy!

AIUI, plan is to first introduce in place of 317/321s* on Cambridge/Peterborough stopping duties, before cascading to taking over the King's Lynns in May 2017.

*Likely because these have much less complex diagramming than the 365s, so is easier to phase units into service one at a time.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

I could be wrong but there were class 91 + Mark 3 stock used on slow trains during the very early days of the electrified ECML, before the electric services expanded north of Peterborough.

They did; once the wires were usable to Peterborough there was a 17.36 from King's Cross which was fast to Stevenage then all stops to Peterborough. At first it used the 89, frequently on a scratch rake of whatever carriages could be found and thereafter a 91 with air conditioned stock.

In fact the very first passenger use of the 91s was on this 17.36.

 

[Hadders]

I noticed Great Northern branded 377s in parked up at Hornsey this morning.

 

[jon0844]

Anyone know when the first 387s might be in service?

I was assuming that they will be used on the fast trains to Cambridge cascading the 365s to humbler duties like Hatfield. If they can then cascade out the 6 car 313s used on services to and from Kings Cross I will be very happy!

Other way around at first, hopefully meaning that with SDO we might soon get 8 car trains on Sundays calling at Hatfield.

 

[Failed Unit]

Other way around at first, hopefully meaning that with SDO we might soon get 8 car trains on Sundays calling at Hatfield.

A flying pig. Lol.

I would settle for any length of train on a Sunday. Rather than or current. "Do you feel lucky punk?" We have @ked of the drivers so much they don't volunteer for overtime anymore.

 

[notverydeep]

Are there any self contained class 365 diagrams, perhaps peak only, starting and ending at Hornsey in the same formation? If so presumably these too could / might go over to 387s prior to the next set of new diagrams in May 2017...

 

[Failed Unit]

I think they have a few others that can easilty move over. As an example 0549 Peterborough- London is either a 321 or 365. (But was a 317 this morning). I suspect neither of the units will do a non cleared 387 routes because of the variable traction that shows up on it.

The commuting people will love it. Nice new air-conditioned trains then may comes the 387s head to the expresses and they are back to the 365s just in time for the heat.

 

[jon0844]

A flying pig. Lol.

I would settle for any length of train on a Sunday. Rather than or current. "Do you feel lucky punk?" We have @ked of the drivers so much they don't volunteer for overtime anymore.

That's the current form of SDO used by GTR. Selective driver operation.

I'm with you though. I don't travel weekends on GN at the moment. Not worth the stress.

 

[Class377/5]

I noticed Great Northern branded 377s in parked up at Hornsey this morning.

Er currently no 377s in Hornsey.

Anyone know when the first 387s might be in service?

I was assuming that they will be used on the fast trains to Cambridge cascading the 365s to humbler duties like Hatfield. If they can then cascade out the 6 car 313s used on services to and from Kings Cross I will be very happy!

Monday. Have no idea of the diagrams.

 

[D365]

Er currently no 377s in Hornsey.

And definitely not Great Northern branded.

 

[Failed Unit]

And definitely not Great Northern branded.

There was yesterday when the poster posted it. Didn't see any today. It was parked in the middle of 2 others but was a fair distance from the track to see the number. The damaged bin from Sunday the distracted me.

 

[Ianno87]

There was yesterday when the poster posted it. Didn't see any today. It was parked in the middle of 2 others but was a fair distance from the track to see the number. The damaged bin from Sunday the distracted me.

There are however GN branded 3*8*7s there just now. Think a couple of previous posters are being unneccesarily pedantic.

 

[D365]

Think a couple of previous posters are being unneccesarily pedantic.

I beg to differ. There's quite a difference between the originally planned 377/5s and the now incoming 387/1s.

 

[Failed Unit]

There are however GN branded 3*8*7s there just now. Think a couple of previous posters are being unneccesarily pedantic.

I bet the branding takes a whole 30 minutes and considering they were letting the press see them last week I would expect them to be branded. (Dont still have the Welwyn Hatfield times, but i am sure it was great northern branded - but could be photoshopped).

To be honest I was surprised how many the had in Hornsey yesterday. Looked like at least 5.

But yes. I hadn't noticed myself the number was wrong. I knew what they meant. Lol.

 

[Marklund]

They did; once the wires were usable to Peterborough there was a 17.36 from King's Cross which was fast to Stevenage then all stops to Peterborough. At first it used the 89, frequently on a scratch rake of whatever carriages could be found and thereafter a 91 with air conditioned stock.

In fact the very first passenger use of the 91s was on this 17.36.

Thank you for the confirmation.

 

[Class377/5]

Currently 9x 387 on the GN. 387104/106/109/110/111/112/114/119/120

 

[Marklund]

At first it used the 89, frequently on a scratch rake of whatever carriages could be found and thereafter a 91 with air conditioned stock.

And here's the very train with Air Con stock.

(Not my photograph)

 

[jon0844]

I'll be crossing my fingers for the 0957 from Hatfield to King's Cross on Monday...

Sent from my HUAWEI MLA-L11 using Tapatalk

 

[Failed Unit]

I'll be crossing my fingers for the 0957 from Hatfield to King's Cross on Monday...

Sent from my HUAWEI MLA-L11 using Tapatalk

Isn't that normally a 365? May be worth trying the 942 (ex WGC) it is normally a pair of 317s.