Come late summer 2021. Could the government/dft be embarrassed and admit we have no trains ?

[HamworthyGoods]

I was referring to the PRM restriction.

Yes but the order rolling stock is withdrawn usually relates to exam/overhaul cycles, and when there has been delays to replacement often small exemptions to see out some extra miles.

I can’t think of much rolling stock recently that has been withdrawn for scrap before its time was up and heavy exams due etc meaning the PRM dispensation is actually a bit of a red herring,

 

[317 forever]

Yes but the order rolling stock is withdrawn usually relates to exam/overhaul cycles, and when there has been delays to replacement often small exemptions to see out some extra miles.

I can’t think of much rolling stock recently that has been withdrawn for scrap before its time was up and heavy exams due etc meaning the PRM dispensation is actually a bit of a red herring,

The only examples I can think of are the 332s and maybe some 317s. There are still many trains older than the 332s still in service elsewhere.

 

[Bald Rick]

Surely retirements are an issue in places too? I know a fair few retirements which were brought forward last year, and whilst there have been some pushed back more latterly due to lockdown (“what’s the point retiring when I can do naff all?”), the talk of tax freezes in particular to the LTA has put this back on the agenda for many.

Oh yes, retirements are definitely in issue in some depots (I can think of a couple where it has directly affected the service), however overall it is a smaller issue than the training.

I don’t think there’s going to be any quick solutions to all this.

100%. For some areas this will run well into next year.

 

[DB]

Yes but the order rolling stock is withdrawn usually relates to exam/overhaul cycles, and when there has been delays to replacement often small exemptions to see out some extra miles.

I can’t think of much rolling stock recently that has been withdrawn for scrap before its time was up and heavy exams due etc meaning the PRM dispensation is actually a bit of a red herring,

Plus realistically what government minister is going to allow non-compliant stock to be re-introduced, given the backlash from disability groups which it would cause?

 

[HamworthyGoods]

The only examples I can think of are the 332s and maybe some 317s. There are still many trains older than the 332s still in service elsewhere.

The 332s were in need of major works, that’s why quite a lot of the fleet had been stood down as out of miles, luckily the gap between delayed 387 introduction and 332s being stopped wasn’t a problem due to the reduced service.

 

[Bikeman78]

Plus realistically what government minister is going to allow non-compliant stock to be re-introduced, given the backlash from disability groups which it would cause?

There shouldn't be a backlash if the non compliant units are used to lengthen trains. For example, attaching 143s to 150s around Cardiff doesn't do anyone any harm. People that benefit from the modifications still have the same amount of train available to them.

 

[hwl]

6 issues with some interlinking (not in order of importance):

1. Training has been severely disrupted
2. Most TOCs were short on drivers already
3. Several TOCs already had huge route training backlog issues
4. Due to retirements the short fall has got bigger
5. For some TOCs with new rolling stock being delivered they have been delayed and there is a massive additional training gap to catch up on. (Anglia, SWR, TfW, TPE)
6. For some of those same TOC older stock has been retired or transferred. (e.g. Anglia, SWR) and GTR ditching the 365 and able to use some GatEx 387s while Gatwick Airport Station is rebuilt and has reduced service levels and longer term the 6x C2C 387 when they are released.

Hence some TOC will face few issues and others huge issues

 

[DB]

There shouldn't be a backlash if the non compliant units are used to lengthen trains. For example, attaching 143s to 150s around Cardiff doesn't do anyone any harm. People that benefit from the modifications still have the same amount of train available to them.

That only works if the operator also has (and is carrying on using) other PRM-compliant units which are fully compatible with the non-compliant ones. This really only applies to a small number of classes.

 

[PR1Berske]

The answer to the thread question is "no", they won't be embarrassed.

As explained in the responses and replies, there are complex matters at play, both the amount of actual units available for passenger use; and the number of trained drivers for these units. Both were once somewhat at arm's length from DfT responsibility.

Nobody really knows what will happen with passenger numbers going forward. As I've said elsewhere on this sub-forum, passenger numbers have collapsed and might take a while to really get back up again. If the railway (broadly defined) can react to that, there won't be much of an issue. If the uptick in passenger numbers is slower and longer and takes us beyond summer then maybe the impact will be lessened.

 

[plugwash]

There is also the problem of route knowledge of drivers,route clearance of units, fixed-formation units and the fact that the railway is stil balkanised into TOCs that make the railway very inflexible.

Will the railway be able to work to reduce this inflexibility and redeploy resources where they are needed, or will we be stuck in a situation of under-capacity in some areas and over-capacity in others.

 

[Fratton Guard?]

I'm not in the rail industry yet but I can see, as an outsider, that the train crew shortage will not be quickly fixed even as training courses restart.

I passed the OPC and MMI for Commercial Guard at Fratton, SWR, way back in December 2019 and was told to wait for the call giving me a start date which should come mid year. Fast forward 16 months and I've recently been told that there is no way I'll start this year as there will be no new courses this year, only what sounds like the slow clearing through of classes that are stagnated due to COVID.

However, learning from this thread that there is train crew shortages has sort of brightened my mood, I was thinking that with more people working from home that I would now never get a start date, but there is now light literally at the end of the tunnel.

 

[Bikeman78]

I'm not in the rail industry yet but I can see, as an outsider, that the train crew shortage will not be quickly fixed even as training courses restart.

I passed the OPC and MMI for Commercial Guard at Fratton, SWR, way back in December 2019 and was told to wait for the call giving me a start date which should come mid year. Fast forward 16 months and I've recently been told that there is no way I'll start this year as there will be no new courses this year, only what sounds like the slow clearing through of classes that are stagnated due to COVID.

However, learning from this thread that there is train crew shortages has sort of brightened my mood, I was thinking that with more people working from home that I would now never get a start date, but there is now light literally at the end of the tunnel.

Northern is definitely training guards. A mate of mine started his course in February. He was only appointed a few weeks earlier.