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Comparison of Welsh & English approaches to controlling the virus, and could we see a Tier 4?

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Howardh

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Council and government officials are reportedly considering introducing extra restrictions if the current three tier system hasn't made a difference by mid-November.
According to iNews, discussions are underway over a potential plan B, which could include a 'Tier 3 plus' or 'Tier 4'.
The website reports measures under Tier 4 - which has not been officially announced or decided but is reportedly being discussed - could include shutting restaurants and non-essential retail such as clothes shops.
Short-term local circuit breaker lockdowns to bring the R value of transmission below 1 are also said to be under consideration.

Which means more-or-less areas in England will become as Wales is now. Excuse me, Boris, that appears to be similar to what Starmer wanted but you rejected, "circuit/fire-break all round".

At least in Wales, if it works (and there's no guarantee of course) and gets the R to below 1, they should get back to some kind of normal by Xmas; whereas in England this pussy-footing around means now that harsher lockdowns may well extend into Xmas.

Of course if it doesn't work in Wales, they have had 2 weeks extreme lockdown followed by more. And then when the south of England's figures start to catch up while everyone else is improving...??
 
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yorkie

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At least in Wales, if it works (and there's no guarantee of course) and gets the R to below 1, they should get back to some kind of normal by Xmas...
You think Wales is going to keep these restrictions until Christmas? Or you think that infections won't creep up again after the 9th of November?
whereas in England this pussy-footing around means now that harsher lockdowns may well extend into Xmas.
I don't understand your logic at all.
Of course if it doesn't work in Wales, they have had 2 weeks extreme lockdown followed by more. And then when the south of England's figures start to catch up while everyone else is improving...??
What do you think a two week lockdown is actually going to achieve? I think your expectations are totally unrealistic.

I also don't understand what your argument is; you seem to contradict yourself.
 
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Which means more-or-less areas in England will become as Wales is now. Excuse me, Boris, that appears to be similar to what Starmer wanted but you rejected, "circuit/fire-break all round".

At least in Wales, if it works (and there's no guarantee of course) and gets the R to below 1, they should get back to some kind of normal by Xmas; whereas in England this pussy-footing around means now that harsher lockdowns may well extend into Xmas.

Of course if it doesn't work in Wales, they have had 2 weeks extreme loc kdown followed by more. And then when the south of England's figures start to catch up while everyone else is improving...??

I did find it strange that the UK Government only had the 3 tiers and no structure for measures above Tier 3.
ScotGov's recently published "Strategic Framework" has 5 levels with 1-3 being broadly equivalent to England's Tiers 1-3 but with a lower level 0 or baseline and, pertinant to this discussion, a level 4 which is near to full lockdown

You can argue whether the restrictions are correct (eg schools staying open in all levels) but it does give a structure to what measures would be imposed if Level 3 was deemed ineffective in an area or countrywide.

If it comes to it UKGov will either have to quickly add a Tier 4 or Tier3+ (Tier 3A?, Tier 3 Max?) or have Tier 3 plus a whole list of additional measures muddying the waters. This could well be seen as yet another U-turn, flip-flopping, etc
 

PHILIPE

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I did find it strange that the UK Government only had the 3 tiers and no structure for measures above Tier 3.
ScotGov's recently published "Strategic Framework" has 5 levels with 1-3 being broadly equivalent to England's Tiers 1-3 but with a lower level 0 or baseline and, pertinant to this discussion, a level 4 which is near to full lockdown

You can argue whether the restrictions are correct (eg schools staying open in all levels) but it does give a structure to what measures would be imposed if Level 3 was deemed ineffective in an area or countrywide.

If it comes to it UKGov will either have to quickly add a Tier 4 or Tier3+ (Tier 3A?, Tier 3 Max?) or have Tier 3 plus a whole list of additional measures muddying the waters. This could well be seen as yet another U-turn, flip-flopping, etc


I thought the Tier system was to simplify the guidance
 

bramling

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Which means more-or-less areas in England will become as Wales is now. Excuse me, Boris, that appears to be similar to what Starmer wanted but you rejected, "circuit/fire-break all round".

At least in Wales, if it works (and there's no guarantee of course) and gets the R to below 1, they should get back to some kind of normal by Xmas; whereas in England this pussy-footing around means now that harsher lockdowns may well extend into Xmas.

Of course if it doesn't work in Wales, they have had 2 weeks extreme lockdown followed by more. And then when the south of England's figures start to catch up while everyone else is improving...??

One wonders what will happen when the Wales lockdown finishes after the two weeks, as presumably its effects would be messed up by infectious English people entering Wales. Does this mean some kind of ongoing movement restriction might be on the cards?
 

brad465

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One wonders what will happen when the Wales lockdown finishes after the two weeks, as presumably its effects would be messed up by infectious English people entering Wales. Does this mean some kind of ongoing movement restriction might be on the cards?
That may depend on what infections appear to be doing in England if we've not had any circuit breaker sort of lockdown imposed before November 9th.

If it looks like they've reached a peak in England without equivalent measures to Wales, there'll be plenty of calls from within Wales not to put such travel measures in as our infection rate would be declining. The ONS data from Friday had the R value coming down (although still just over 1), if this continues a peak looks imminent (especially now we're in half term).
 

GRALISTAIR

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Good lord - Xmas shopping which retailers rely on will be absolutely devastated- never mind Xmas. The economy will be so shot that the NHS will struggle. Madness. Tier 4 good lord.
 

duncanp

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Good lord - Xmas shopping which retailers rely on will be absolutely devastated- never mind Xmas. The economy will be so shot that the NHS will struggle. Madness. Tier 4 good lord.

Not only Christmas shopping.

Many the hospitality sector, plus the arts and entertainment sector, will be relying on having some sort of custom over Christmas and New Year to at least partially make up for the losses they have suffered throughout 2020.

If there is any kind of lockdown, or even the threat of a lockdown, over Christmas and New Year, it will be the last straw for many businesses, and I wouldn't be surprised if there are some big name retail casualties in the new year.
 

GRALISTAIR

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I understand the government has to be seen to be doing something and perhaps that is why Tier 4 is being considered- but what next? Tier 5. Where does it end? Can’t they let people make their own decisions and suffer any consequences?
 

SS4

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I understand the government has to be seen to be doing something and perhaps that is why Tier 4 is being considered- but what next? Tier 5. Where does it end? Can’t they let people make their own decisions and suffer any consequences?

Not in this case, the disease is contagious - one's actions will push consequences onto everyone they come near.
 

Domh245

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If it comes to it UKGov will either have to quickly add a Tier 4 or Tier3+ (Tier 3A?, Tier 3 Max?) or have Tier 3 plus a whole list of additional measures muddying the waters. This could well be seen as yet another U-turn, flip-flopping, etc

Seeing as the government above else seems to be incapable of sticking to it's plan, I expect that anything more sever than Tier 3 will gain an entirely new moniker. Remember the 'nandos' levels from earlier in the year that has since disappeared. My money would be on something catchy like "Ultra Caution Areas"...
 

initiation

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Not in this case, the disease is contagious - one's actions will push consequences onto everyone they come near.

If people don't want to take the generally tiny risk of suffering any ill effects that is fine, they are welcome to stay at home.
 

Baxenden Bank

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Not in this case, the disease is contagious - one's actions will push consequences onto everyone they come near.
It's only contagious if you've got it. If you haven't got it then you are absolutely no risk to anyone, one's behaviour will have exactly zero consequences. Unless that is one goes stir-crazy and run around the supermarket with an axe!

As of 1611 today, 99.45% of the population in my area (the worst in Stoke-on-Trent) haven't got it (technically 0.0452% have returned a positive test in the last seven days). Even if we allow for a low rate of testing (say 50% of real cases) that is still 99% of the population clean and good to go. If we add those still isolating from the previous seven days, its just under 99%.

As to levels, it seems rather poorly thought through that the lowest level (Tier 1) is the status most parts of the country are currently placed in, suggesting that there will not be any relaxing from that level for the foreseeable future ie rule of six for evermore. At least give people some hope. Have the current base level as Tier 2 with a hope of moving to a lower Tier 1 at some point when levels of infection reduce and Tier 0 being normality. Calling the next level up Tier3+ (or Tier 3 Plus, or extra, or whatever) is daft. Call it Tier 4 for most things closed and then Tier 5 for April style 'stay at home'. Again, make it clear that the option remains on the table for full lockdown.
 

Richard Scott

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Not in this case, the disease is contagious - one's actions will push consequences onto everyone they come near.
So is a cold. Concept of reality needed, cannot carry on like this, this isn't the only horse in the race. All these tiers just cause confusion, get people down and wreck businesses, assume none of this is important though as virus is the only thing we need to consider?
 

DelayRepay

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Remember that Tier 3 is a baseline, with additional restrictions being added as deemed necessary in each area. So we could end up with some Tier 3 areas with the current restrictions, and others where additional restrictions are added such that they are similar to the current situation in Wales. So for this reason, I don't think we'll see a Tier 4.
 

Yew

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Remember that Tier 3 is a baseline, with additional restrictions being added as deemed necessary in each area. So we could end up with some Tier 3 areas with the current restrictions, and others where additional restrictions are added such that they are similar to the current situation in Wales. So for this reason, I don't think we'll see a Tier 4.
Ah, nice and simple, just like we were promised.
 

LAX54

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Which means more-or-less areas in England will become as Wales is now. Excuse me, Boris, that appears to be similar to what Starmer wanted but you rejected, "circuit/fire-break all round".

At least in Wales, if it works (and there's no guarantee of course) and gets the R to below 1, they should get back to some kind of normal by Xmas; whereas in England this pussy-footing around means now that harsher lockdowns may well extend into Xmas.

Of course if it doesn't work in Wales, they have had 2 weeks extreme lockdown followed by more. And then when the south of England's figures start to catch up while everyone else is improving...??

As soon, well soon after, the 'circuit break' has ended, the figures will rise, all it does is delay it, and the longer it will go on...and on... and on...

So is a cold. Concept of reality needed, cannot carry on like this, this isn't the only horse in the race. All these tiers just cause confusion, get people down and wreck businesses, assume none of this is important though as virus is the only thing we need to consider?
Is not the wider implication of all this runaway / lockdown/ dont do this, dont do that, going to end up far worse than the 'virus' itself ?
 

Richard Scott

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As soon, well soon after, the 'circuit break' has ended, the figures will rise, all it does is delay it, and the longer it will go on...and on... and on...


Is not the wider implication of all this runaway / lockdown/ dont do this, dont do that, going to end up far worse than the 'virus' itself ?
Answer to both questions, in my opinion, has to be yes.
 

Skimpot flyer

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We need a tier that is born out of Boris saying
‘I’m not proud, I was wrong. And the truth is hard to take’
Unfortunately, those words were sung by... Level 42
 

LAX54

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Answer to both questions, in my opinion, has to be yes.

The 3 month lockdown, it seems, did not work, as soon as we eased off, whoosh it was back, it seems, so some say even worse, so another couple of weeks in shut down, will just do the same again, our neighbours kids, went back to school for 1 day, they have been off ever since 'too scared' to go, the parents are happy to keep them at home, but they themselves are scared witless too, and from what I can gather they do not do any school work !
 

DB

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The 3 month lockdown, it seems, did not work, as soon as we eased off, whoosh it was back, it seems, so some say even worse, so another couple of weeks in shut down, will just do the same again, our neighbours kids, went back to school for 1 day, they have been off ever since 'too scared' to go, the parents are happy to keep them at home, but they themselves are scared witless too, and from what I can gather they do not do any school work !

The 3 month lockdown also ended in summer. At this time if year it will come back quicker, just like every similar infection does in winter. Will they ever realise that they cannot stop it?
 

LAX54

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The 3 month lockdown also ended in summer. At this time if year it will come back quicker, just like every similar infection does in winter. Will they ever realise that they cannot stop it?
Will also crash into the cold/flu season, and that will cause confusion, as flu/covid are very similar in symptoms.
 

Yew

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The 3 month lockdown also ended in summer. At this time if year it will come back quicker, just like every similar infection does in winter. Will they ever realise that they cannot stop it?
*insert bumbling-pound-shop-churchill rhetoric about defeat and giving up here*
 

Richard Scott

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Will also crash into the cold/flu season, and that will cause confusion, as flu/covid are very similar in symptoms.
All the people who I know have been tested all had the symptoms but all came back negative. Numbers will undoubtedly remain high or even climb a little but the virus won't care what tier an area is in, it'll just carry on like flu has done for years. Issue is are we going to carry on living with these restrictions for years as politicians can't be seen to be doing nothing? I hope not.
 

LAX54

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All the people who I know have been tested all had the symptoms but all came back negative. Numbers will undoubtedly remain high or even climb a little but the virus won't care what tier an area is in, it'll just carry on like flu has done for years. Issue is are we going to carry on living with these restrictions for years as politicians can't be seen to be doing nothing? I hope not.

At 66, I am not one of the so called younger ones ! lol, however we do know quite a few 'oldies' who are in their 70's and 80's all, bar one person, has said that they are indeed 70+ and know time is limited at that age, they may catch C19 and die (and they also say they may not!), but all have said they could easily die from normal flu, a cold, falling over, some other illness, they can see no difference with C19, they say its a virus, maybe more easily spread, but they doubt it, they have lived through WW2, with bombs, and lots more, yet there was no panic they say, like we are seeing today, 'we just got one with it' they also remember past epidemics/ pandemics, as again say lives were lost, they were expected, yet life went on as normal, and like most (all ? ) of us, they seem confused as to what is actually heppening, they cannot keep up with the rules and alterations, and alterations to the alterations !
 

C J Snarzell

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I'm actually not surprised at anything this government is doing now. That snivelling wimp Matt Hancock will probably introduce a Tier 5 at this rate -

I can image Tier 5 will be something like -

- you have to wear gloves now, in addition to face masks in public places.
- you can only leave your house for an hour each day (like the initial restrictions in March).
- schools will close (yet again).
- there will be a night time curfew everywhere (even 24 hour shops) will have to close.

CJ
 

adc82140

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Thee is no evidence for glove wearing. It should be forbidden in tier 5.
 

Yew

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they have lived through WW2, with bombs, and lots more, yet there was no panic they say, like we are seeing today, 'we just got one with it' they also remember past epidemics/ pandemics, as again say lives were lost, they were expected, yet life went on as normal, and like most (all ? ) of us, they seem confused as to what is actually heppening, they cannot keep up with the rules and alterations, and alterations to the alterations !

Indeed, this feels like the complete opposite of the "Keep Calm and Carry On" spirit.
 
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