If stage 3 had been completed but with (say) 20,000 people, how is that likely to be better than 20 million people having been given it under emergency use?
Because there is a time factor in play here which can't be abridged or shortened. One of the main points of stage 3 is to try to pick up effects that can't be picked up in the earlier stages, before the medicine is released to the general public.
Let's say for example that a medicine has a serious impact on fertility in 10% of those who take it. That's not going to be picked up in the stage 1 or stage 2 trials because they are too short and on too few people. But with tens of thousands of people, over 2-3 years, there's at least a chance that will be noticed and further investigated.
Note that - as far as I can determine from the figures I can find - about 30-40% of stage 3 trials 'fail'. About 50% of those failures are due to (lack of) efficacy, and about 30% are due to safety issues.
That doesn't mean that everything is picked up at stage 3 either - eg. look at Vioxx, which caused (at a conservative estimate) 100,000 heart attacks and many thousands of deaths - but at least if you do pick something up at stage 3 you have caused less damage.
Also, in this case, it appears that the stage 3 trials for the Covid vaccines have been 'spiked' because the people in the 'placebo' arm of the trial have been offered the vaccine too ('as it would be unethical to leave them unvaccinated for some years'). So I don't see how the stage 3 trials can ever properly complete in this case.
All that said, I still think these vaccines should be made available *to those who want it*, assuming they are fully aware that the risk profile is not yet fully known. But when we're talking about mandating it - well, mandating any medical treatment on a healthy individual is *always* wrong, but in particular doing so right now, before we're had any real chance to see the potential for medium- or long-term side effects, is so wrong that I don't think I have sufficient words to describe quite how wrong I think it is. Utterly, utterly unacceptable.
Yes there's a risk of long term impacts, however unless a medication was developed several decades ago then most people taking it would not have data showing the long term implications until they die.
Well yes, but an impact that affects your life today, or in a year's time, is going to be viewed as something rather more significant than something that may have an impact 40 or 50 years from now.
Anyway, whilst the vaccine with the Covid-19 genetic material used has only been in existence for a short time the "base vaccine" has been around for a few more years. For instance Biontech had been using it a base for developing cancer vaccines for some time.
True, but it hasn't been widely used so far, and even if it had, the fact that one mRNA vaccine worked well and was safe doesn't necessarily mean that others will be.
Also, for obvious reasons, we accept a lower bar of accepting side-effects with treatments on sick people (who have a disease that needs treating to improve/save their life) than we do with healthy people (who do not).