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Concerned about bad weather shutting off West Coast Mainline in Cumbria

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jednick

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I've heard there's a weather warning for heavy rain this Friday and Saturday in the North-West of England.

How often is the West Coast mainline in Cumbria affected by flooding or landslides due to flooding caused by heavy rain? More than the average line I'd guess.

I've booked a journey for early Monday morning, from Lancaster to Glasgow (and ending up in Ardrossan).

I realise if something severe such a major landslide occurs, the line could be closed for days or weeks.

But say there's 24 hours of heavy rain from midday Friday to midday Saturday and the line closes due to flooding.

Is there a reasonable chance the line would be re-open by 6am on Monday morning?

Either way, if by any chance the line was closed off on the day I travel, would I likely travel from Lancaster to Glasgow by some other rail route, or would there a replacement bus for part of the journey?

I know that nobody can accurately know the future, but based on previous experience, what tends to happen with this particular part of railway line?
 
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Darandio

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Other than with the use of a crystal ball, I cannot see how anyone can accurately answer those questions.
 

Gathursty

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I think the WCML is quite resilient as it climbs mountains (not many places to be flooded). I can't recall a serious issue affecting the line apart from heavy flooding in Carlisle a year or two ago.
 

Darandio

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Please take an educated guess.

In all probability it will likely be fine, each event happens under a set of unique circumstances. Because each situation is unique, there is absolutely no way to tell how quickly it could be cleared up until it happens and is assessed. Personally, i'd just proceed on the basis that everything will be fine.
 

duffield

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Based on reading about past similar incidents, I would think the chances are good that any flooding issues would be resolved by Monday. And if not there would be alternative arrangements in place by then (replacement bus and/or diversions/ticket acceptance via Newcastle and Edinburgh).
 

Iskra

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I think the WCML is quite resilient as it climbs mountains (not many places to be flooded). I can't recall a serious issue affecting the line apart from heavy flooding in Carlisle a year or two ago.

It's the stretch between Preston and Lancaster that seems to have been the issue more recently.

However, being close to the M6 and half-term, replacement road transport will be more readily available than normal. There are also the slow but scenic back up options of the Cumbrian Coast and line via Dumfries.

My crystal ball thinks you will be fine though.
 

jednick

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I think the WCML is quite resilient as it climbs mountains (not many places to be flooded). I can't recall a serious issue affecting the line apart from heavy flooding in Carlisle a year or two ago.

Thanks for the comment. I was worried because I can imagine all the water draining down from the surrounding mountains between Oxenholme and Penrith.
 

DarloRich

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I've heard there's a weather warning for heavy rain this Friday and Saturday in the North-West of England.

How often is the West Coast mainline in Cumbria affected by flooding or landslides due to flooding caused by heavy rain? More than the average line I'd guess.

I've booked a journey for early Monday morning, from Lancaster to Glasgow (and ending up in Ardrossan).

I realise if something severe such a major landslide occurs, the line could be closed for days or weeks.

But say there's 24 hours of heavy rain from midday Friday to midday Saturday and the line closes due to flooding.

Is there a reasonable chance the line would be re-open by 6am on Monday morning?

Either way, if by any chance the line was closed off on the day I travel, would I likely travel from Lancaster to Glasgow by some other rail route, or would there a replacement bus for part of the journey?

I know that nobody can accurately know the future, but based on previous experience, what tends to happen with this particular part of railway line?

Try to keep a sense of perspective and not get stressed about things you cant control. Just relax. It will be fine. Replacement routes will be authorised as needed. You seem to be get very stressed over nothing.

Personally I would be more worried about the line to Ardorssan around Saltcoats.

each event happens under a set of unique circumstances. Because each situation is unique, there is absolutely no way to tell how quickly it could be cleared up until it happens and is assessed

Correct.
 

jednick

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In all probability it will likely be fine, each event happens under a set of unique circumstances. Because each situation is unique, there is absolutely no way to tell how quickly it could be cleared up until it happens and is assessed. Personally, i'd just proceed on the basis that everything will be fine.
Thanks for your comment. I was thinking of that landslide that closed the line off for several weeks, a few years ago. Perhaps I shouldn't worry so much!
 

jednick

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Based on reading about past similar incidents, I would think the chances are good that any flooding issues would be resolved by Monday. And if not there would be alternative arrangements in place by then (replacement bus and/or diversions/ticket acceptance via Newcastle and Edinburgh).
Do you know - If the line were closed (say somewhere near Shap), would the replacement bus likely travel along the M6 and just connect Oxenholme with Penrith? Or, might there be a replacement for a longer distance, say Lancaster to Carlisle?
 

DarloRich

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Do you know - If the line were closed (say somewhere near Shap), would the replacement bus likely travel along the M6 and just connect Oxenholme with Penrith? Or, might there be a replacement for a longer distance, say Lancaster to Carlisle?

Who knows? it will depend on the circumstances and how easily buses can be arranged and supported and what the parking/turning facilities are like. I am sure the relevant authorities will sort out alternatives.

Oxenholme is a small station on a small road, half way up a hill although it does have a small carpark

Don't over think it.
 

AJG3

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24 hours solid rain in Cumbria is par for the course. WCML should not be affected. Longer periods of rain can be problematic. At Carlisle, like Cockermouth, there is a confluence of rivers. The Eden rises near Aisgill, and the Caldew in the NE Fells. Both areas have a lot of peat bog; this acts as a buffer to flooding downstream. The problem starts when the rain persists long enough for the bogs to saturate, and then the runoff starts. The Lune similarly rises in boggy fell country too.
 

jednick

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A further question would be this -

I'm travelling on the 05.56 Transpennine Express service from Lancaster to Glasgow. (I have an advance purchase ticket - Lancaster to Ardrossan Harbour). If this train were cancelled at Lancaster, would I have to wait for the next Transpennine Express service to Glasgow, or might I be able to use a Virgin Trains service? I'd be interested in hearing what you all have to say about this particular query.
 

yorkie

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A further question would be this -

I'm travelling on the 05.56 Transpennine Express service from Lancaster to Glasgow. (I have an advance purchase ticket - Lancaster to Ardrossan Harbour). If this train were cancelled at Lancaster, would I have to wait for the next Transpennine Express service to Glasgow, or might I be able to use a Virgin Trains service? I'd be interested in hearing what you all have to say about this particular query.
if the disruption is to that train only, the relevant companies may insist you stick with the next departure of the company whose trains your ticket is valid for.

However in cases serious disruption, and on a case by case basis of minor disruption, ticket restrictions should be lifted and ticket acceptance put in place.
 

jednick

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If on an Advance you have to use the next train of the correct TOC unless acceptance is arranged.
Thanks for your comment. So, in this scenario, would it be worth going into Lancaster ticket office and asking them if they could authorise me to use a Virgin Trains service to Glasgow? (I think the next Transpennine Express service to Glasgow would be two hours later).
 

Bletchleyite

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Thanks for your comment. So, in this scenario, would it be worth going into Lancaster ticket office and asking them if they could authorise me to use a Virgin Trains service to Glasgow? (I think the next Transpennine Express service to Glasgow would be two hours later).

You could, or you could ask the guard of the VT if he will allow travel, which might be more likely to meet with success.
 

yorkie

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If ticket acceptance is not in place, the ticket office are unlikely to endorse travel. But they might, maybe. On average a typical Guard is much more likely to take a pragmatic view than most ticket office staff, in my experience (and that of others)

To be fair that is partly because ticket office staff may not feel they have the necessary authority to grant travel. A Guard absolutely does have that authority - at least for the train they are working anyway.

I would always ask the Guard if the ticket office said no.
 

DarloRich

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Thanks for your comment. So, in this scenario, would it be worth going into Lancaster ticket office and asking them if they could authorise me to use a Virgin Trains service to Glasgow? (I think the next Transpennine Express service to Glasgow would be two hours later).

There seems to be an awful lot of worry here for very little cause. Ticket acceptance will be sorted out. Please try to relax.

If the TPE broke down they MIGHT ask you to wait or the MIGHT let you travel onwards on the next train. The best thing to do would be to ask the guard of the Virgin train before you got on although if the line was blocked the Virgin train wont be going anywhere! Don't waste your time asking the ticket office.
 

30907

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Who knows? it will depend on the circumstances and how easily buses can be arranged and supported and what the parking/turning facilities are like. I am sure the relevant authorities will sort out alternatives.

Oxenholme is a small station on a small road, half way up a hill although it does have a small carpark.

Lancaster and Carlisle are good places to turn trains and assist passengers, and the usual places when there is planned work; however, Virgin often use Preston because their crews often change over there.
The Cumbrian Coast alternative is far slower than a coach..
 

mmh

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A further question would be this -

I'm travelling on the 05.56 Transpennine Express service from Lancaster to Glasgow. (I have an advance purchase ticket - Lancaster to Ardrossan Harbour). If this train were cancelled at Lancaster, would I have to wait for the next Transpennine Express service to Glasgow, or might I be able to use a Virgin Trains service? I'd be interested in hearing what you all have to say about this particular query.

If your train was cancelled due to the line being blocked so would the next train, regardless of who operates it.

Don't worry about it. It won't happen, and even if it were to you'll get to your destination eventually. In cases of lines being blocked and similar advance and operator restrictions go out of the window. There will be someone along shortly more obsessed with rules than I who will insist the opposite no doubt. Don't allow their doom-mongering to worry you.

As for weather forecasts, the Met Office app has been threatening then cancelling warnings of floods on a daily basis for about 3 weeks now for me (North Wales), and there's been far less rain than has been warned. Forecasting is still largely (very) educated guesswork with a sprinkling of report the worst lest you do a Michael Fish thrown in.
 

jednick

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If your train was cancelled due to the line being blocked so would the next train, regardless of who operates it.

Don't worry about it. It won't happen, and even if it were to you'll get to your destination eventually. In cases of lines being blocked and similar advance and operator restrictions go out of the window. There will be someone along shortly more obsessed with rules than I who will insist the opposite no doubt. Don't allow their doom-mongering to worry you.

As for weather forecasts, the Met Office app has been threatening then cancelling warnings of floods on a daily basis for about 3 weeks now for me (North Wales), and there's been far less rain than has been warned. Forecasting is still largely (very) educated guesswork with a sprinkling of report the worst lest you do a Michael Fish thrown in.
You're right about weather forecasts being guesswork. I cancelled a gardening job today due to hours of rain being forecast.....it turned out it stayed dry all day.
 

southernyoshi

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As an ex-Cumbrian, 24 hours of heavy rain is what Cumbrians call ‘a fine spell’ :p It’s nothing the WCML doesn’t see several times each winter.
 
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