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Conflicting evidence on impact of school closures

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yorkie

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52180783

Countries like the UK that have closed schools to help stop the spread of coronavirus should ask hard questions about whether this is now the right policy, says one team of scientists.

The University College London team says keeping pupils off has little impact, even with other lockdown measures.

But a scientist whose work has informed the UK strategy insists school closures play an important role.....

Prof Russell Viner said:
Data on the benefit of school closures in the coronavirus outbreak is limited, but what we know shows that their impact is likely to be only small.

"Additionally, the costs of national school closures are high - children's education is damaged and their mental health may suffer, family finances are affected.

"Policymakers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence."

"There's a whole range of things that schools could do to reopen in a way that involves social distancing at schools but keeps schools open."
That said it's too early for any decisions to be made right now, and I hope that more research can be made in this area, and that when the time comes, any decision takes into account all factors, including aspects such as mental health; the bigger picture must be considered in my opinion; it's far too simplistic (and, I would say, dangerous) to say we should close down schools indefinitely and disregard all the issues mentioned in this article.
 
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hwl

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52180783




That said it's too early for any decisions to be made right now, and I hope that more research can be made in this area, and that when the time comes, any decision takes into account all factors, including aspects such as mental health; the bigger picture must be considered in my opinion; it's far too simplistic (and, I would say, dangerous) to say we should close down schools indefinitely and disregard all the issues mentioned in this article.
One study may have looked at the direct effects of school and others might have been looking at the indirect effects (e.g. what parents do e.g. nattering at school gates, extra shopping trips as already out of home etc.). Plenty of other areas of CV19 study produce conflicting results (e.g. temperature and humidity effect on spread).
Denmark's provisional phased "back to normal" plan includes an early return for primary school (exc. final year) in May. Any significant gatherings aren't pencilled in till August at the earliest. The Danes are still unsure on secondary thinking.

A return of primary pupils has a much bigger impact on overall ability to go to work numbers than secondary and will have been part of Danish thinking.
 

JonathanH

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Isn't one of the considerations here the health of the teachers? It is all very well saying that it won't affect the pupils but we expect teachers to stand in front of them and help pupils with their work. Is it reasonable to put teachers at risk of their health?

The death of a class teacher would be quite troubling for young pupils from a mental health point of view.
 

Mogster

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I didn’t really understand why the exams were cancelled so readily. Surely kids could continue revising from home, only enter school to take the exams and they are distanced during the exams anyway. In Germany the school and college leaving exams are still going ahead iirc.

The whole paper is below, if anyone wants a look.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30095-X/fulltext

Summary
In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, 107 countries had implemented national school closures by March 18, 2020. It is unknown whether school measures are effective in coronavirus outbreaks (eg, due to severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS], Middle East respiratory syndrome, or COVID-19). We undertook a systematic review by searching three electronic databases to identify what is known about the effectiveness of school closures and other school social distancing practices during coronavirus outbreaks. We included 16 of 616 identified articles. School closures were deployed rapidly across mainland China and Hong Kong for COVID-19. However, there are no data on the relative contribution of school closures to transmission control. Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic. Modelling studies of SARS produced conflicting results. Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2–4% of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions. Policy makers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19, and that combinations of social distancing measures should be considered. Other less disruptive social distancing interventions in schools require further consideration if restrictive social distancing policies are implemented for long periods.
 
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Mogster

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Isn't one of the considerations here the health of the teachers? It is all very well saying that it won't affect the pupils but we expect teachers to stand in front of them and help pupils with their work. Is it reasonable to put teachers at risk of their health?

The death of a class teacher would be quite troubling for young pupils from a mental health point of view.

Maybe we could have closed primary schools as Sweden have done, kept high schools open with distancing measures in place? As the paper says you could have half the school in on alternate days.

I may sound harsh but I don’t go for the “teachers in danger” angle, other critical workers have to work in similar circumstances. Kids education and future prospects are being damaged, this really needs more thought.
 
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hexagon789

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I thought one of the reasons they closed was many were short of staff, rather than anything to do with the respective merits of closing or keeping open schools. After all if you don't have enough staff to remain open what can they do...
 

scotrail158713

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Nicola Sturgeon’s reasoning up here was more to do with short staffing, making teaching classes impossible more than the health dangers themselves. Was there not a similar line of thought down south?
EDIT - just seen @hexagon789 has made the same point
 

Mogster

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Yes my local high school was closed before the official deadline. There were mixed messages but it seemed the staff had pretty much decided to close saying they were scared and working was dangerous. As someone who from the start of this knew I would have to work, possibly more than usual to cover for others I didn’t find too acceptable.

I’d have liked to hear more concerns for the kids education rather than concerns about the staffs health. This is a serious situation regarding kids education and future. If this was my year for starting Uni I’d have been beside myself with worry.
 

yorkie

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I’d have liked to hear more concerns for the kids education rather than concerns about the staffs health..
Rest assured that's not the view of staff at schools near me; I understand there are dozens of staff willing to work and only a tiny proportion of staff who are willing are actually required at any one time. Due to the restrictions less than a handful of students are in. Some students are very depressed and not allowed to be in school even though this puts them at far, far greater risk. The ratio of teachers to pupils is no more than 1 teacher per 2 students.
 

Mogster

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Surely an exam situation is isolating by its nature. The kids turn up and sit at single desks in large rooms and are supervised by a couple of teachers.

We’re told that education is important by teachers groups, I totally agree with this, but there doesn’t seem to be any solutions being suggested by teaching organizations.

As someone who has never been popular with the establishment either at school or after I wouldn’t have wanted the teachers making up my exam results either... :lol:
 

Starmill

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People who are healthy mentally always think that the greatest risks to the health of themselves and others are from physical health. This is sometimes true, depending on the person and their specific circumstances, and sometimes it is not. Unfortunately, forgetting this is a problem which pervades the whole of society. Poor mental health has a negative effect on physical health, exactly the same as vice versa.
 

Bantamzen

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Not convinced that is a greater risk than Covid, it is certainly less infectious!

Not in the same way, but suicide can be very infectious more so these days due to social media, let alone being stuck almost completely indoors for any length on time.

https://media.samaritans.org/documents/SamaritansSuicideStatsReport_2019_Full_report.pdf

Key facts from 2018:
• There were 6,859 suicides in the UK and Republic of Ireland.
• 6,507 suicides were registered in the UK and 352 occurred in the Republic of Ireland.
• The suicide rate in Northern Ireland is the highest in the UK – where men aged 25-29 have the highest suicide rate.
• The highest suicide rate in the UK, and England, is among men aged 45-49.
• The highest suicide rate in Wales is among men aged 40-44.
• The highest suicide rate in the Republic of Ireland is among men aged 55-64.
• The highest rate in Scotland is among men aged 35-44.
• There has been a significant increase in suicide in the UK, the first time since 2013 – this appears to be driven by an increase in the male suicide rate.
• In the UK, suicide rates among young people have been increasing in recent years. The suicide rate for young females is now at its highest rate on record.
• In the UK men remain three times more likely to take their own lives than women, and in the Republic of Ireland four times more likely.
• Suicide has continued to fall in both males and females in the Republic of Ireland.

So suicide is on the increase even without the current crisis. And of course these figures only reflect those that actually died, plenty more try and end up in the care of both the NHS and Social Services, some repeatedly. As @Bletchleyite says it cannot be ignored completely, indeed as time goes on it will take an increasingly higher profile, along with all the other health and mental issues that will likely besiege our healthcare services in the coming months.
 

JohnB57

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Surely an exam situation is isolating by its nature. The kids turn up and sit at single desks in large rooms and are supervised by a couple of teachers.
As ever, reality is somewhat more complex and involved.

Generally these days, exams are invigilated not by teachers, but by a team of DBS checked individuals who are brought in solely for that function. Regulations are stringent and carefully policed, including the student/invigilator ratio. Although carefully separated - again by a regulation distance - it is pretty much impossible to maintain the recommended 2 metres before, throughout and after the exam. Also, as invigilators have to distribute and collect papers and any other equipment that might be needed during the exam, the opportunity for contamination is impossible to avoid.

It gets even more complicated when you consider that a year of maybe 250 students have to be split between perhaps four or five halls or rooms due to simple numbers and any other individual needs.

Obviously, if schools are otherwise closed, teachers would undertake the invigilation, but the same proximity issues would apply. And what do you do with students who have self isolation imposed on them and can't actually attend the exam?

Nothing impossible, but significantly more complex than you think.
 

UP13

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I'm a teacher and the schools would have had to have closed anyway. There was a real staff shortage starting to happen. A number of teachers were either self-isolating for themselves or a family member and there was a huge demand on supply teachers, who themselves were increasingly self isolating. Also supply teachers are very expensive. Schools simply don't have enough money to hire that many supply teachers for that long.

I'd say in my school at least a quarter if not a third of pupils were in self isolation in the week before the school closure so I was having to do remote teaching anyway (on top of physical teaching).

To whoever said the priority should be kids education not staff health - how many people are you willing to risk for your or your child's education? Just one teacher getting affected from a pupil can lead to potentially hundreds getting affected and quite likely some deaths.

Like it or not teaching/learning can be done at home. It's not like the health/food industries where people need to physically go places.
 

Meerkat

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If you had the testing capacity opening the schools for a few weeks before the summer would be a good chance to sample check and quarantine a decent population sample to find out where the hotspots are.
 

sjpowermac

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Yes my local high school was closed before the official deadline. There were mixed messages but it seemed the staff had pretty much decided to close saying they were scared and working was dangerous. As someone who from the start of this knew I would have to work, possibly more than usual to cover for others I didn’t find too acceptable.

I’d have liked to hear more concerns for the kids education rather than concerns about the staffs health. This is a serious situation regarding kids education and future. If this was my year for starting Uni I’d have been beside myself with worry.
Are you trying to convince us that you are working in a cramped room with absolutely no social distancing measures in place?

Are you seriously saying that teachers with underlying health conditions should have ignored the letter from their GP and remained in work? Do you think that the government guidance to stay off work if you had either a continuous cough or high temperature should have applied to the rest of the population but not teachers? You might like to reflect upon what you’ve written there and apologise.

My observation was that several other public services struggled with staff numbers. Certainly the railways had become even more of a lottery than usual. Also, many parents working from home still sent their kids into school coughing and spluttering all over the place.

Anyhow, for what it’s worth, I would be astonished if schools were not open by early May at the very latest. You bemoaned the exam classes leaving early but that will likely be the key to relieving any staff shortages.

I'm a teacher and the schools would have had to have closed anyway. There was a real staff shortage starting to happen. A number of teachers were either self-isolating for themselves or a family member and there was a huge demand on supply teachers, who themselves were increasingly self isolating. Also supply teachers are very expensive. Schools simply don't have enough money to hire that many supply teachers for that long.

I'd say in my school at least a quarter if not a third of pupils were in self isolation in the week before the school closure so I was having to do remote teaching anyway (on top of physical teaching).

To whoever said the priority should be kids education not staff health - how many people are you willing to risk for your or your child's education? Just one teacher getting affected from a pupil can lead to potentially hundreds getting affected and quite likely some deaths.

Like it or not teaching/learning can be done at home. It's not like the health/food industries where people need to physically go places.
You make some excellent points, that I notice @Mogster has chosen not to reply to.

Just out of interest, did your school find it possible to implement any social distancing rules? My guess is that such a thing would be pretty much impossible in any school setting.

I do wonder if international comparisons mentioned in the articles are fair. I have a friend who teaches at a secondary school in Taiwan, where the schools have remained open throughout. Her description of the very well ordered and respectful environment there doesn’t match what I know of many schools in the U.K.

I do see, of course, that workers in some sectors have belatedly had some protection put in place e.g. Perspex screens at tills in supermarkets. I hope that when schools do re-open at least some thought is given to the safety of the staff and students. It’s hardly going to help things if the kids of key healthcare workers pass the virus between themselves in school and then infect their parents...

I wish you all the best in your work.

Isn't one of the considerations here the health of the teachers? It is all very well saying that it won't affect the pupils but we expect teachers to stand in front of them and help pupils with their work. Is it reasonable to put teachers at risk of their health?

The death of a class teacher would be quite troubling for young pupils from a mental health point of view.
You make some good points, though I suspect that just as schools closed after many other people were working from home, they will also re-open a good while before a more general return to work.
 

tbtc

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One study may have looked at the direct effects of school and others might have been looking at the indirect effects (e.g. what parents do e.g. nattering at school gates.

I think that the "school gates" side of things isn't getting the attention that it ought to here. Even if you assume that kids can't catch the virus or transmit the virus (which are both obviously non-negligible, bearing in mind we've had a five year old die from this), the mixture of adults is going to be a big problem.

If you want to open primary schools then you are potentially going to have hundreds of parents hanging around waiting for their kids to come out in the afternoon (and some degree of mixing with other parents during the morning drop off - even if it's a case of "Drop And Go" at the school gates, there's still going to be large numbers of people congregating near the gates as they wait to see their kids off in the morning). You can limit the number of people getting into a supermarket but how are you going to police the pavements outside every primary school in the country?

And then there's the problem that a lot of kids are either dropped off or picked up by grandparents - which is a riskier demographic to be hanging around and mixing near other members of the population.

Having teenagers (i.e. kids old enough to get themselves to/from educational establishments) go into school for a handful of mornings/afternoons to sit tests is a different story that may have fewer negative consequences, but, for me, the idea of hundreds of strangers mixing as they wait to pick up their kids seems a recipe for disaster.

(and that's not even getting into the argument about the practicalities of kids socially distancing within the school buildings or the various other issues of how the school day itself would be affected)
 

UP13

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The week before the closures that's exactly what we had at my school. Loads of parents who were told to work from home hanging about in huge groups at the school gate with no social distancing. Plenty of grandparents still doing the school run. Even my 2 year old was still being looked after by his grandparents (all 4 under 70) because my wife and myself are teachers.
 

Mogster

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I'm a teacher and the schools would have had to have closed anyway. There was a real staff shortage starting to happen. A number of teachers were either self-isolating for themselves or a family member and there was a huge demand on supply teachers, who themselves were increasingly self isolating. Also supply teachers are very expensive. Schools simply don't have enough money to hire that many supply teachers for that long.

I'd say in my school at least a quarter if not a third of pupils were in self isolation in the week before the school closure so I was having to do remote teaching anyway (on top of physical teaching).

To whoever said the priority should be kids education not staff health - how many people are you willing to risk for your or your child's education? Just one teacher getting affected from a pupil can lead to potentially hundreds getting affected and quite likely some deaths.

Like it or not teaching/learning can be done at home. It's not like the health/food industries where people need to physically go places.

I can see it was a difficult situation, as ever countries have dealt with it in different ways. There seemed be a lot of pressure on the government from groups representing teachers to close schools, that appeared to lead to kids and teachers not attending so the governments hand was forced. As the report from the Lancet says there’s little evidence the virus is being spread in classrooms.

My own workplace is a large healthcare lab, while we work distancing is attempted but is next to impossible. Distancing measures have been implemented in the canteen facilities. We have 25% sickness either self isolating or signed off for 3 months due to high risk health conditions, that means there’s a lot more pressure on the remaining staff. We do critical work so can’t close down, people who have contact with someone who may have the virus are signed off for 14 days, people with symptoms are signed off for 7 and then return. Other than that the rest of us keep working. Of course contact with vulnerable relatives after returning from work is a concern.

If we can get the country moving again in May is there any prospect of the 2020 exam season still happening? Presumably the exam papers were being prepared at the time the education system shut down.
 

yorkie

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One of my fears is that, if taken too far (which I hope doesn't happen) the end result of measures that are too extreme may have a disproportionately negative effect on young people. We have a situation where there are some young people who desperately want to go to school, and sufficient staff who would be able to provide that supervision, but we are unable to do so. Maybe that is the right decision right now but it can't remain so for too long.

When decisions are made, it must not be with complete disregard for the needs of young people.
is there any prospect of the 2020 exam season still happening? Presumably the exam papers were being prepared at the time the education system shut down.
That has already been ruled out.
 

Mogster

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Yes.

The decision to cancel the exams seemed to be made very quickly, it’s only April. The impact on 16 and 18yr olds will be truly awful I’d imagine and hugely stressful.

Germany are still holding their end of school and college exams I think. Sweden haven’t closed their high schools at all.
 

sjpowermac

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I can see it was a difficult situation, as ever countries have dealt with it in different ways. There seemed be a lot of pressure on the government from groups representing teachers to close schools, that appeared to lead to kids and teachers not attending so the governments hand was forced. As the report from the Lancet says there’s little evidence the virus is being spread in classrooms.

My own workplace is a large healthcare lab, while we work distancing is attempted but is next to impossible. Distancing measures have been implemented in the canteen facilities. We have 25% sickness either self isolating or signed off for 3 months due to high risk health conditions, that means there’s a lot more pressure on the remaining staff. We do critical work so can’t close down, people who have contact with someone who may have the virus are signed off for 14 days, people with symptoms are signed off for 7 and then return. Other than that the rest of us keep working. Of course contact with vulnerable relatives after returning from work is a concern.

If we can get the country moving again in May is there any prospect of the 2020 exam season still happening? Presumably the exam papers were being prepared at the time the education system shut down.
So you acknowledge that you have 25% of staff off in your own workplace and yet still persist with the notion that schools closed due to pressure from ‘groups representing teachers’ rather than teachers following the same guidance as your own colleagues. Perhaps you would be kind enough to explain your thinking?
 
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sjpowermac

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One of my fears is that, if taken too far (which I hope doesn't happen) the end result of measures that are too extreme may have a disproportionately negative effect on young people. We have a situation where there are some young people who desperately want to go to school, and sufficient staff who would be able to provide that supervision, but we are unable to do so. Maybe that is the right decision right now but it can't remain so for too long.

When decisions are made, it must not be with complete disregard for the needs of young people.

That has already been ruled out.
How successful do you believe the lockdown would have been if the schools had remained fully open?

Are you disputing the Imperial College figure of 400 000 dead had we continued with the government’s initial strategy of herd immunity and doing little to ‘flatten the curve’?

As I’ve mentioned previously, I would be astonished if this doesn’t turn out to be an extended Easter break with schools returning in early May.
 

plugwash

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As the report from the Lancet says there’s little evidence the virus is being spread in classrooms.
Is there any evidence that it's *not* being spread in classrooms though?

The null hypothesis would surely be that classrooms are no more or less likely to spread it than other situations in which people work similarly close together.
 
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