Conflicting evidence on impact of school closures

[krus_aragon]

If we can get the country moving again in May is there any prospect of the 2020 exam season still happening? Presumably the exam papers were being prepared at the time the education system shut down.

The decision to cancel the exams seemed to be made very quickly, it’s only April. The impact on 16 and 18yr olds will be truly awful I’d imagine and hugely stressful.

It may have been made quickly, but it will have given clarity to those pupils, rather than have them sat at home worrying if the exams will go ahead or not (with their teachers double-guessing the same question).

Would you want to tell those pupils "actually, we've changed our mind: now you will be doing those exams, in an even more stressful environment than usual, and sorry about the month of teaching / guided revision you've all just missed out on" ?

If schools reconvene, it won't be for the purpose of holding exams.

 

[Mogster]

Is there any evidence that it's *not* being spread in classrooms though?

The null hypothesis would surely be that classrooms are no more or less likely to spread it than other situations in which people work similarly close together.

I think the point the authors of the Lancet paper are making is that with the socio/economic effects of school closures being so high you really need evidence to prove they work as a method of virus control.

Most of the modelling data indicating closures are effective relates to influenza outbreaks, it seems clear coronavirus’s don’t effect children in the same way so justification from a control perspective becomes weaker.

 

[UP13]

Regardless of whether the virus is spread in schools or not, schools would have to have closed anyway. We were days away from there being not enough staff and schools physically not having anymore more money to pay supplies. Having said that many supply agencies stopped sending out supplies to protect their own staff.

Regarding exams, I imagine there'd have been a staff shortage there too.

I feel sorry for young people, my eldest is in Year 10, but the priority is protecting lives.

Is your exam worth killing somebody? Because the sad reality is that by physically going to an exam you increase the risk of spreading the virus.

 

[Mogster]

It may have been made quickly, but it will have given clarity to those pupils, rather than have them sat at home worrying if the exams will go ahead or not (with their teachers double-guessing the same question).

Would you want to tell those pupils "actually, we've changed our mind: now you will be doing those exams, in an even more stressful environment than usual, and sorry about the month of teaching / guided revision you've all just missed out on" ?

If schools reconvene, it won't be for the purpose of holding exams.

Not doing the exams has consequences also.

The whole concept of teachers allocating pupils a final grade result sounds like a professional minefield. The only way I can imagine it working would be if the grades were allocated by staff from different schools so the allocation remained impartial.

 

[hwl]

I think the point the authors of the Lancet paper are making is that with the socio/economic effects of school closures being so high you really need evidence to prove they work as a method of virus control.

Most of the modelling data indicating closures are effective relates to influenza outbreaks, it seems clear coronavirus’s don’t effect children in the same way so justification from a control perspective becomes weaker.

It isn't necessarily about the children but the rest of their families too? In which case the case could be stronger? (high spread/low rate of symptoms)

If children act as carriers with low risk of symptoms then using reopening schools early to increase the spread as they are planning in Denmark makes sense.

 

[UP13]

Teachers give teacher assessment levels and grades to pupils all the time. It's not a new thing.

How could a teacher grade a pupil from another school without physically seeing a range of work?

I know the situation is not ideal but conserving life is the priority right now. The exam mess will be sorted out trust me but we have to protect people.

Nobody's exam result is worth somebody dying.

Regarding whether kids get ill with the virus or not, they can still carry it. Teachers can catch it from them and pass it on. School gates see huge crowds of parents and even grandparents in close proximity... Its not as simple as "well kids seem fine!"

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd say it should be enough that there is some sort of appeals process. Exams are a terrible way of assessing someone anyway, and I say that as someone with good exam technique who can pass an exam on something he barely knows anything about.

The useful skill in the 21st century is research and critical thinking. Remembering facts by rote is pointless when you've got every fact you could ever want on a device in your pocket. Exams shouldn't come back now they've gone, in my view.

I think this warrants its own thread to discuss in more detail:
https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/should-we-stop-using-exams-for-assessment-permanently.203211/

 

[UP13]

The kids who are really stuffed are the slackers who were counting on doing last minute revision...

 

[yorkie]

. .whetherkids get ill with the virus or not, they can still carry it. Teachers can catch it from them and pass it on. School gates see huge crowds of parents and even grandparents in close proximity... Its not as simple as "well kids seem fine!"

I don't agree with your reasoning; unless you are in a high risk group you just hav to accept the fact this virus is now out there; the reason schools are closed is not because of the 'risk' of getting it but to avoid overwhelming the NHS.

At schools near me there are a lot of volunteers who, right now, simply aren't needed.

As for school gates, you can stagger closing times and it's not an issue if talking about secondary schools anyway.

 

[Mogster]

Teachers give teacher assessment levels and grades to pupils all the time. It's not a new thing.

How could a teacher grade a pupil from another school without physically seeing a range of work?

I was proposing that a teacher from a different school views a sample of the kids work and at least validates the grades given.

I know the situation is not ideal but conserving life is the priority right now. The exam mess will be sorted out trust me but we have to protect people.

Nobody's exam result is worth somebody dying.

You can’t make make these decisions on that sort of basis. You need population wide evidence. Otherwise we’d all remain in “lockdown” for ever, people die for other reasons than CoV2.

Regarding whether kids get ill with the virus or not, they can still carry it. Teachers can catch it from them and pass it on. School gates see huge crowds of parents and even grandparents in close proximity... Its not as simple as "well kids seem fine!"

No one’s suggesting that. Once again you need evidence and the available evidence from the SARS and CoV2 outbreaks is that schools are not a significant source of infection. Influenza outbreaks are different, kids are a much more significant source of infection.

 

[scotrail158713]

The kids who are really stuffed are the slackers who were counting on doing last minute revision...

Yep. Although it may be a useful life lesson for them to not leave everything to the last minute in future.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yep. Although it may be a useful life lesson for them to not leave everything to the last minute in future.

And nobody is "stuffed" if their exams go wrong. My Dad, for instance, left school with a single CSE in Woodwork but went to night school for qualifications and became a bank manager.

 

[xydancer]

As ever, reality is somewhat more complex and involved.

Generally these days, exams are invigilated not by teachers, but by a team of DBS checked individuals who are brought in solely for that function. Regulations are stringent and carefully policed, including the student/invigilator ratio. Although carefully separated - again by a regulation distance - it is pretty much impossible to maintain the recommended 2 metres before, throughout and after the exam. Also, as invigilators have to distribute and collect papers and any other equipment that might be needed during the exam, the opportunity for contamination is impossible to avoid.

It gets even more complicated when you consider that a year of maybe 250 students have to be split between perhaps four or five halls or rooms due to simple numbers and any other individual needs.

Obviously, if schools are otherwise closed, teachers would undertake the invigilation, but the same proximity issues would apply. And what do you do with students who have self isolation imposed on them and can't actually attend the exam?

Nothing impossible, but significantly more complex than you think.

As one of those who does invigilate exams at high schools and colleges (under national exam regulations, teachers are not allowed in the exam room, by the way), you are quite correct to say that holding exams would be more complex that might be thought. It is far from impossible, however, especially if most or all of the rest of the school is not in. Most schools have big gyms and halls which could easily be used. At my high school, we could quite easily move from the exam regulation 1.25m between desks to 2m or more.

I would certainly have been happy to go in and supervise them.

 

[Meerkat]

If you really thought you had been shafted on the grades given you could retake them

 

[scotrail158713]

If you really thought you had been shafted on the grades given you could retake them

I’m sure the teachers are being a bit more lenient as well i.e. if a student is sitting on the edge between an A & B the teacher may grade an A

 

[xydancer]

If you really thought you had been shafted on the grades given you could retake them

Indeed, the current government document states, "If a student does not feel their grade reflects their performance, they will have the opportunity to sit an exam, as soon as is reasonably possible after schools and colleges open again. Students will also have the option to sit their exams in summer 2021, in line with usual practice."

My understanding is that an exam 'season' may well be run in October, everything permitting.

 

[krus_aragon]

I was proposing that a teacher from a different school views a sample of the kids work and at least validates the grades given.

That's a sensible approach, and reflects what's already done for practical /coursework assignments at secondary level (plus throughout FE and HE). A sample of students' work is sent to a second marker or external examiner, and if there's significant variation in marking, the entire batch will be re-marked. It may not neccesarily be another teacher, it may be someone employed by the exam body.

(The same is done with exam papers, too.)

 

[Bletchleyite]

I’m sure the teachers are being a bit more lenient as well i.e. if a student is sitting on the edge between an A & B the teacher may grade an A

That does happen to some extent anyway. For instance I was on the borderline for 2.1 and 1st with my degree (69.5% overall mark with 70% being the boundary) and they considered my conduct as a whole through the course and decided to mark it up to a 1st. Some departments used "viva voce" interviews to do this but at the time Manchester Computer Science Dept didn't.

 

[JohnB57]

As one of those who does invigilate exams at high schools and colleges (under national exam regulations, teachers are not allowed in the exam room, by the way), you are quite correct to say that holding exams would be more complex that might be thought. It is far from impossible, however, especially if most or all of the rest of the school is not in. Most schools have big gyms and halls which could easily be used. At my high school, we could quite easily move from the exam regulation 1.25m between desks to 2m or more.

I would certainly have been happy to go in and supervise them.

I did make the point that nothing is impossible.

Current JCQ regs (section 12.3 [d]) dictate that it's only the subject teacher or the senior member of the relevant department who aren't permitted to invigilate. That may be different at your school, but it's not a blanket requirement that teachers cannot be used to perform the function.

At the school where I have invigilated, finding more space would have been extremely difficult as all of the larger non teaching spaces are already used. Again, not impossible, but a major headache.

 

[MDB1images]

Be surprised if the Children go back before September.
Not sure how the classes will look with social distancing or indeed interaction with friends in the school/play grounds.
Add in the teachers who are off and May would seem a big ask particularly as many people won't want to risk sending the child to s school in case they get or bring home the virus.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Be surprised if the Children go back before September.
Not sure how the classes will look with social distancing or indeed interaction with friends in the school/play grounds.

There are "intermediate" ways they could go back which could deal with these. For example, if half the children went back in the morning only and half in the afternoon only, you don't need to have those breaks where they mingle at all (as lunch would be at home) and you can have them sitting in every other seat with half the regular number in each classroom, and with no need for an assembly/lunch hall that larger space could also be used for spaced-out desks for a full class of 30ish.

 

[The Ham]

There are "intermediate" ways they could go back which could deal with these. For example, if half the children went back in the morning only and half in the afternoon only, you don't need to have those breaks where they mingle at all (as lunch would be at home) and you can have them sitting in every other seat with half the regular number in each classroom, and with no need for an assembly/lunch hall that larger space could also be used for spaced-out desks for a full class of 30ish.

That would be a logistical nightmare, in that you'd need to ensure that siblings were in the same half.

Parents who were still working out of the home would find it hard to sort out suitable childcare, with the extra costs associated with that.

 

[The Ham]

How successful do you believe the lockdown would have been if the schools had remained fully open?

Are you disputing the Imperial College figure of 400 000 dead had we continued with the government’s initial strategy of herd immunity and doing little to ‘flatten the curve’?

As I’ve mentioned previously, I would be astonished if this doesn’t turn out to be an extended Easter break with schools returning in early May.

My guess is that you're going to be astonished.

 

[The Ham]

From the BBC article:

Recent modelling studies of Covid-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2%-4% of deaths, many fewer than other social distancing interventions

However I would suggest that they key word in this is the word alone, in the context of School Closures ALONE would....

However the report doesn't highlight the impact of closing schools as part of wider social distancing measures.

 

[sjpowermac]

My guess is that you're going to be astonished.

Lots of drip-drip-drip stories in the press both yesterday and today. We shall see.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That would be a logistical nightmare, in that you'd need to ensure that siblings were in the same half.

No, you wouldn't. Most likely it'd be done with a very simple blunt instrument - "Years 7 and 8 in the morning, years 9, 10 and 11 in the afternoon" or somesuch depending on the numbers. Some schools had already started to do that before they were closed due to staff numbers.

Parents who were still working out of the home would find it hard to sort out suitable childcare, with the extra costs associated with that.

Overall better than no children in school.

 

[The Ham]

No, you wouldn't. Most likely it'd be done with a very simple blunt instrument - "Years 7 and 8 in the morning, years 9, 10 and 11 in the afternoon" or somesuch depending on the numbers. Some schools had already started to do that before they were closed due to staff numbers.

That works with secondary schools, how about primary schools where each child would have to be collected?

Especially given that it's fairly easy for it to be a 10-15 minute journey, add in the potential for children being let out late and lunchtime could be a challenge.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That works with secondary schools, how about primary schools where each child would have to be collected?

The parent has to collect twice, then. And drop one off as they pick up etc.

It's an imperfect situation and whatever is done no solution can be perfect, nor should time be wasted looking for perfect solutions.

 

[hwl]

Lots of drip-drip-drip stories in the press both yesterday and today. We shall see.

WHO, Welsh FM and Mayor of London all saying no easing in on the horizon this morning.

The estimate of earliest peak has also been pushed back later by a week this morning.

The exit time from ICU is typically a 5 week lag from catching but there is a 3 week review cycle

I suspect schools will be one of the earlier areas to go back but they will look at the whole impact of schools reopen not just the narrow "in classroom" school definition bit.

Progress on testing is painfully slow.

 

[UP13]

I don't agree with your reasoning; unless you are in a high risk group you just hav to accept the fact this virus is now out there; the reason schools are closed is not because of the 'risk' of getting it but to avoid overwhelming the NHS.

At schools near me there are a lot of volunteers who, right now, simply aren't needed.

As for school gates, you can stagger closing times and it's not an issue if talking about secondary schools anyway.

As I said, the reality is that the schools were on the edge of a major major staffing crisis.

You can stagger closing times but parents of multiple children would just hang out waiting for their next kid. I'm also talking from the perspective of a primary teacher.

I was proposing that a teacher from a different school views a sample of the kids work and at least validates the grades given.



You can’t make make these decisions on that sort of basis. You need population wide evidence. Otherwise we’d all remain in “lockdown” for ever, people die for other reasons than CoV2.



No one’s suggesting that. Once again you need evidence and the available evidence from the SARS and CoV2 outbreaks is that schools are not a significant source of infection. Influenza outbreaks are different, kids are a much more significant source of infection.

Cross school moderation is definitely something that happens at primary level but the problem is it would now involve physically going into work to find work and physically send it to other teachers. When we were told we were closing it was already a massive rush to grab what we could to take home.

Whether kids are a source of infection or not the schools would have to have closed anyway because of financial reasons (paying for supplies) and safety (not enough adults to supervise that number of pupils). As it was, a significant number of pupils were at home in isolation anyway so it probably made more sense just to remote teach the lot as it was quite a bit of work to simultaneously teach both groups at once.

Yep. Although it may be a useful life lesson for them to not leave everything to the last minute in future.

I agree.