I think a nice deep breath is in order. As
@DarloRich has ably demonstrated some sections of the media are running away with themselves. We're not going to wake up tomorrow and find out that Rishi is bringing back a liability for conscription for everyone aged 18 - 41 (as it was at the outbreak of World War 2). If for no other reason than it would be hideously expensive and we haven't got a fraction of the infrastructure and equipment that rapidly increasing the manpower of the armed forces would entail. But it does make a good headline and has gotten plenty of media outlets loads of engagement and clicks today by reporting in the way that they have.
That being said the drip drip of stories coming out of various countries (and not all of whom are in election years so it isn't just "fighting for their slice of the pie") does put quite a clear marker down that the era of the "Peace Dividend" that we've enjoyed here in the West for the last thirty odd years since the end of the Cold War is now over. In reality it ended when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 (even arguably 2008 when Russia invaded Georgia) but it certainly ended in the early hours of 24 February 2022 and it is time to behave as if that glorious era of peace has come to an end.
That doesn't mean we
will fight a war with Russia (or anyone else) but it certainly means that it's time to start behaving a bit more like we might have to fight one. And one way to ensure that we don't is to strengthen our defences here in the UK and in Europe more widely. It is time to quite seriously begin rebuilding the defence industrial base that has almost catastrophically atrophied throughout Europe, to begin increasing the number of troops, sailors and airmen that are in service, the number if ships, armoured vehicles and aircraft, the numbers of munitions in our bunkers, etc etc. We need to get serious about tackling the corruption where it exists in the procurement process. It should not take decades to design, build and introduce new equipment which, when it does arrive, does so over fantastically over budget. It should not take years and many millions to integrate new missiles onto old aircraft. And so on and so on. If that means some monopolies have to be broken up, if some have to be nationalised, if some revolving doors have to be glued shut, then it must be done.
The Baltics and Poland woke up to this danger (having never really been unaware of it to be fair) following 2014 and have escalated their preparations since February 2022. It is time to follow suit.
It is an utterly damning indictment of European defence capability that two years after the full scale invasion of Ukraine we appear unable, as a Continent, to be able to supply Ukraine with much more than fraction of what it needs to defend itself. We don't even appear able to produce in large quantities something as simple 155mm artillery shells. Let alone complex systems like surface to air or cruise missiles, or armoured vehicles like tanks and APCs. Two years! And we don't appear to be much further forward than we were in February 2022.
We don't need to worry about conscription any time soon. But we should all be aware that there is a very serious threat to the security and peace that we've all enjoyed for the last thirty years and if we want to keep it, we're going to have to start making deadly serious preparations to fight for it because right now the cupboard is bare and we are reliant on the United States to keep us safe in a conflict that goes longer than a few weeks or even days. Which is an appalling strategy considering the current state of politics in the United States.
There is an old latin phrase which seems to date back to the Roman era: "Si vis pacem, para bellum" which translates to "If you want peace, prepare for war". It remains astue advice.
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