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Coronavirus.

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modernrail

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How serious could this be for the operation of the railways? The obvious one is staff shortages if staff are asked to self-isolate. What other problems/measures do forum members think might result from a more general outbreak in the UK? Are there any defined protocols for this type of situation?
 
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GRALISTAIR

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Also, at rush hour, you have huge numbers of people crammed together in close proximity. It really could enable fast spread of the virus. I suggest railways could spread it faster than air travel.
 

ScotGG

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A large reduction in passengers will kill off some struggling franchises but emergency measures will be undertaken. Given current growth in cases in ever more nations it's a question of when not if there's sizable reductions in passengers.
 

StephenHunter

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The big potential spreader is the London Underground; closing that down, even for a day or two, would be huge.
 

daikilo

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As far as I understand, this virus is believed to be not significantly different to infuenza for which many are not vaccinated. If anyone who thinks they have symptoms of the virus self-isolates (and then asks for a test) they will protect the rest of the population and allow us to conduct our business normally. If in addition we pay attention to personal protective hygiene, even better.
 

ScotGG

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It lasts for longer on surfaces than the flu so is more infectious I believe.

Regardless, it won't take long for many to think should I risk this non essential journey in a confined space.
 

duffield

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The big potential spreader is the London Underground; closing that down, even for a day or two, would be huge.
*If* it came to that sort of level it surely shouldn't be beyond our resources as a country to provide hand gel and face mask booths at all (major) underground stations (maybe closing minor ones)? (No one allowed on underground unless they use the gel and wear the mask; the mask is to protect *others*, not yourself, but that works if everyone wears one).

The *official* worst case scenario for the UK was released as 80% infection rate, 500,000 dead. It probably won't be nearly as bad as that, it was a very worst case, and quarantine measures might reduce the rate, but the figures I've seen indicate it is 5-7x more deadly than 'normal' flu. But 'normal flu' does have some at least semi-effective** vaccines for vulnerable people and medical staff.

As I'm quite old and not in the best of health, personally I'm quite concerned. I'm retired so luckily I have the choice to stay away from crowds (and particularly London Underground or similar).
If you're younger and fitter than me you almost certainly have nothing to fear personally, and even small children don't seem to be seriously affected - but if it does get widespread please think about whether you could be spreading it to the old, ill and immuno-compromised.

I'm trying not to be alarmist*; SARS and MERS and Ebola were/are all much more *deadly*, it's just that COV19 seems to be much more *infectious*,cases are popping up with no obvious origin/contact whereas SARS/MERS etc. didn't spread as widely/qucikly - there seems to be quite a long period where people are carrying it but not showing symptoms.

Anyhow, trying to be more constructive, the medical advice seems to be that the most significant transmission vector is *not* airborne, but by touching surfaces and then touching the eye, and that as a result frequent hand-washing plus avoiding skin contact with handles etc. (as opposed to masks) is the most effective way of preventing transmission. A simple thing like using the knuckle instead of the finger pad to open a train door would break the door button->finger pad->eye transmission route.


* Given that the government has mentioned the *possibility* of (e.g.) closing schools for two months, and a *worst case* of 500,000 dead, 80% infected, I think we have to consider 'serious' scenarios and it's not really alarmist to do so.
**Varies by year/strain.

Mods please delete this if you think it's OTT or inappropriate; I've tried to keep it somewhat related to the railway issue.
 

The_Train

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Regardless, it won't take long for many to think should I risk this non essential journey in a confined space.

I must admit that it crossed my mind today, particularly as part of my plan for today was to spend some time in the Merseyrail tunnels. I guess that at the moment as we have very few (comparable to other nations) known cases it has to be business as usual.

How are nation's that have been hit harder by this dealing with transportation within their own borders? I've heard about travel between nation's being stopped but have any countries actually stopped internal transportation?
 

duffield

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On a positive note, a lot of medical teams all over the world are working on a vaccine. And they say that this virus doesn't appear to be a slippery mutating type at present so there's a good prospect of a really effective vaccine. It's just going to take a bit of time unfortunately.
 

Master29

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Also, at rush hour, you have huge numbers of people crammed together in close proximity. It really could enable fast spread of the virus. I suggest railways could spread it faster than air travel.
Indeed. You only have to look at the nature of rail travel in China to see how serious a potential problem this could be. It's bad enough when, as I have found the last few times I've travelled there has been someone clogged up with a cold or whatever sitting opposite or nearby. The nature of rail travel, especially nowadays.
 

dutchflyer

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Staying now in one of the countries first hit, but with near stable figures the last weeks, in fact Bangkok, Thailand: the effects are minimal to nil. many people wear facemasks (mostly of the type that is thought of as being ineffective...or complain that these are sold out or too expensive), often as the bosses want them too. What one does see more-even on entry to many citybuses, is a bottle of sanitiser to ´disinfect´ your hands with. I´ve also read on other fora that people fear the strangest irrational things: like handing tickets to inspectors (chipcards=multi use).
From what Ive read about Italy-hardest hit on the continent: same measures as China has taken, mostly isolating those areas, trains pass by without stopping. There will inevitably also be a an awful lot of politics trying to score some distant goal about it.
If it really should come to the worst, then as such this is not different from any large and sudden outbreak of whatever infectuous disease.
 

Edders23

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one of our drivers picked up a child who was sent home to self isolate after returning from a school skiing trip and falling ill but I'm fairly sure they were not in an infected area so probably just a cold

isolated incidents like this will make little difference as the country will keep going but if there are a number of cases in a major city somewhere then that would bring the country to a standstill as shutting down a large city would be both difficult and highly disruptive to the transport network and would probably cause a few business failures especially the retail sector but I suspect there would be some sort of government hand out for rail franchises as they are crucial to the economy
 

Bletchleyite

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*If* it came to that sort of level it surely shouldn't be beyond our resources as a country to provide hand gel and face mask booths at all (major) underground stations (maybe closing minor ones)? (No one allowed on underground unless they use the gel and wear the mask; the mask is to protect *others*, not yourself, but that works if everyone wears one).

Masks are largely ineffective. You'd need a proper respirator.
 

Bletchleyite

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whihc cant be worn by people with a beard or manly stubble. Even then you have to take it off at some point.........................

Indeed. I wasn't saying people should wear respirators, but that wearing masks is largely pointless and does little other than serve to stoke panic.

I suspect they've entered the limelight because of a cultural thing you do see in the UK from time to time - even if they're not that effective, in Asian cultures it's usual to wear one if you have a cold, as a nod to protecting others from it.
 

DarloRich

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Indeed. I wasn't saying people should wear respirators, but that wearing masks is largely pointless and does little other than serve to stoke panic.

I suspect they've entered the limelight because of a cultural thing you do see in the UK from time to time - even if they're not that effective, in Asian cultures it's usual to wear one if you have a cold, as a nod to protecting others from it.

absolutely - the article i heard on the radio essentially said that was the real benefit of the mask.
 

D365

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whihc cant be worn by people with a beard or manly stubble. Even then you have to take it off at some point.........................

NHS trusts have reportedly been asking staff to shave their beards, so that masks will fit.
 

DarloRich

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NHS trusts have reportedly been asking staff to shave their beards, so that masks will fit.

Hardly a surprise as they potentially will have constant interaction with ill people and so need to be protected. BTW it will be for a respirator rather than a mask. The beard prevents a seal from forming.
 

SteveP29

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Indeed. I wasn't saying people should wear respirators, but that wearing masks is largely pointless and does little other than serve to stoke panic.

I suspect they've entered the limelight because of a cultural thing you do see in the UK from time to time - even if they're not that effective, in Asian cultures it's usual to wear one if you have a cold, as a nod to protecting others from it.

The area of Edinburgh I work in is very near the University and the local student populace are approximately 80% Chinese and Japanese, they wear masks as a matter of course all the time when on the streets.
Because I'm so attuned to it, I don't see any marked increase or decrease in numbers of people wearing them
 

DarloRich

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How serious could this be for the operation of the railways? The obvious one is staff shortages if staff are asked to self-isolate. What other problems/measures do forum members think might result from a more general outbreak in the UK? Are there any defined protocols for this type of situation?

It will be no more serious for the railways than any other industry and it depends on how widespread and virulent the virus is but generally:
  • The first problem will be staff members being taken ill meaning cancellations due to staff shortages.
  • Failure to control/quarantine the first infected will increase the spread meaning more staff off sick
  • Trains may need to be taken out of service to be cleaned meaning cancellations.
  • Passengers numbers will fall, temporarily, as people decide not to bother risking it and work form home
  • overtime working from staff will fall as people think it isnt worth the risk
  • discretionary travel will fall first followed by required travel followed by crucial travel

The interesting thing is what happens if things become really bad. Do staff members "desert" their post deciding the risk isn't worth it? What happens then is that the service will simply fall apart and very few trains will run. Frankly I suspect the service would have been shut down before that point.

All companies in the UK should be looking at their contingency planning for a situation where this virus becomes prevalent in the UK. The declared numbers will increase now the virus is in Italy and the Tenerife. It is much easier for more people to travel there than China or Japan or South Korea!

The most important issue for railways, for me, is that it will become a vehicle of transmission and because of that, if things become truly bad, the government may simply shut the network down. Imagine how easily the virus could be spread in a crowded 12 car London commuter train. Imagine how many people those people "touch" every day. Imagine all of the subsequent connections.............

I am sure there are plans in government for this kind of thing and I am sure they are restricted. For a small hint take a look at the transition to war plans from the cold war.


PS: Personally I am not concerned we are all going to die from this virus. I am concerned there will be a wide impact on business generally with people potentially being off sick for extended periods and that this will be worse if bushiness don't plan and brief now
 

daikilo

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It is clear for me that any decision to proactively reduce operations should come from the government (presumably based on CMO guidance) and not individual TOCs.

As for the case of the 12-car commuter train, it is highly unlikely that an individual will make more "contacts" than on say a 3-car equally full. Platforms may be different if busy.
 

exile

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TBH, if the worst case scenarios come to pass, even though I'm a rail buff I think we might have more to worry about than the impact on railways. There are still large parts of the economy that depend on large numbers of people working together in factories and offices and that would grind to a halt if widespread Wuhan-style lockdowns were implemented, besides the human tragedy of death and illness. No wonder share prices are falling.
 

Bletchleyite

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TBH, if the worst case scenarios come to pass, even though I'm a rail buff I think we might have more to worry about than the impact on railways. There are still large parts of the economy that depend on large numbers of people working together in factories and offices and that would grind to a halt if widespread Wuhan-style lockdowns were implemented, besides the human tragedy of death and illness. No wonder share prices are falling.

Though equally it has the potential to prove that widespread home working for office workers is feasible, and once that cat is out of the bag it won't be going back in. This might be a significant positive outcome.
 

DarloRich

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Though equally it has the potential to prove that widespread home working for office workers is feasible, and once that cat is out of the bag it won't be going back in. This might be a significant positive outcome.

as long as your network capacity is sufficient!

It is clear for me that any decision to proactively reduce operations should come from the government (presumably based on CMO guidance) and not individual TOCs.

We are already seeing schools and offices closing, despite government advice. The same thing may happen with TOC's.
 

bahnause

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Self-responsibility counts. It's very basic rules, nevertheless very important ones:
  • Wash your hands throughly
  • Cough and sneeze into a tissue or the crook of your arm
  • Stay at home if you have fever and/or a cough
Don't expect the government to do this for you.
 
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